Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Other pending plays:


9.509 units on Miller/Henderson to go the distance at -155 to win 6.135 units;


Parlay: 3.068 units on Rivera/Sakara to not go the distance (-160), & Schaub/Nogueira to not go the distance (-185) to win 4.612 units;


Parlay: 3.068 units on F.Griffin by decision (+298), & Schaub/Nogueira to not go the distance (-185) to win 15.741 units;


6.135 units on Pearson/Barboza to go the distance at Evens to win 6.135 units.

[BIGDAY]

Got some myself on Griffin already. Is see him making a nice little run in his career.

I have a very small play on Ronnie Mann tonight. Basically for action. Should be entertaining fights for Bellator's card.

[NutsINyoMOUTH]

Yeah he's a beast, Id like to see him against Mousasi, think he'd roll through Babalu as well

lol at him calling out mousasi and babalu...thats like calling out bj penn and andy wang in the same sentencd

[Vaughany]

Ben "Son of Life" Davis gets choked out in first round against Roddy in Cage COntenders event.

[PunisherIND]

V- do you know the other result from cage contender?

[Chairib]

Gina Carano's new film trailer... Haywire...

They had a panel discussion at comic con the day before I showed up. I got to talk to some people who were part of the crew and decided to stick around on saturday. I guess one of the bad guys is a dude who is in the new x-men flick? From what they were telling me, Carano and him have this big fight in the movie. And during filming she litterally knocked the crap out of this dude, ended up knocking him out.

You got to hand it to Steven Soderbergh, the guy made Sex, Lies, and Videotape and Traffic, as well as stuff like Haywire and the Ocean's flicks.

[koscheckbaby]

It's probably easy to get knocked out when you got a giant boner in your pants

[The HOFF]

9.509 units on Miller/Henderson to go the distance at -155 to win 6.135 units;

Please let me know if this is lock of the day, week, month, year, decade, century, or millennium. Thanks.

[Vaughany]

They had a panel discussion at comic con the day before I showed up. I got to talk to some people who were part of the crew and decided to stick around on saturday. I guess one of the bad guys is a dude who is in the new x-men flick? From what they were telling me, Carano and him have this big fight in the movie. And during filming she litterally knocked the crap out of this dude, ended up knocking him out.

You got to hand it to Steven Soderbergh, the guy made Sex, Lies, and Videotape and Traffic, as well as stuff like Haywire and the Ocean's flicks.

Ah yes Fassbender played Magneto, he's in Haywire!

[Vaughany]

Please let me know if this is lock of the day, week, month, year, decade, century, or millennium. Thanks.

ha I'd probably go with Lock of the Decade...but only because it seems so obvious that it's bound to go wrong!!

[stefan084]

Miller/Henderson at -155?--where?

[Vaughany]

Miller/Henderson at -155?--where?

Opening line on 5dimes/sportbet a while ago

[NutsINyoMOUTH]

vaughany why do u always insist on having the gayest avatars?

[MMAdisciple]

^ Because most euro's ''celebrate'' homosexuality, obviously.

[Vaughany]

^ Because most euro's ''celebrate'' homosexuality, obviously.

Master Toddy is not impressed

[NutsINyoMOUTH]

Master Toddy is not impressed

Did you really complain to the moderators about that comment I made? I expected more from you Vaughany...I didn't know you were a snitch like Jon Jones

[Chairib]

[Vaughany]

Did you really complain to the moderators about that comment I made? I expected more from you Vaughany...I didn't know you were a snitch like Jon Jones

ha no not that I know of, as if I'd give a sh*t about u moaning about my avatars! Was probably Jesuseatnubs complaining about u mocking his penis size brainy!

[Vaughany]

U seen the trailers for this?

Some decent actors in it, Joel Edgerton is in an awesome Auzzie film called Animal Kingdom. And Tom Hardy played Bronson. Kurt Angle is in it though, dude looks freaky in the pics from the premiere from the other night!

[Chairib]

U seen the trailers for this?

Some decent actors in it, Joel Edgerton is in an awesome Auzzie film called Animal Kingdom. And Tom Hardy played Bronson. Kurt Angle is in it though, dude looks freaky in the pics from the premiere from the other night!

I believe they were at comic con on friday. I guess they had a autograph session after their panel discussion where you could get that book signed. It's pretty big coffee table book filled with a some glossy pics of MMA fighters. Yeah I saw Animal Kingdom, that dude got ****** by the police in that film.

Tom Hardy is in the next Dark Knight, that's what everyone was talking about.

[PunisherIND]

U seen the trailers for this?

Some decent actors in it, Joel Edgerton is in an awesome Auzzie film called Animal Kingdom. And Tom Hardy played Bronson. Kurt Angle is in it though, dude looks freaky in the pics from the premiere from the other night!

a few weeks back on inside the mma, bas rutten was talking about brothers in mma, and said they should make a movie about two brothers who have to fight each other. he was acting as if he had a great original idea, and i couldnt help but laugh since thats exactly the plot of warrior. lol. gotta love bas.

[Vaughany]

I believe they were at comic con on friday. I guess they had a autograph session after their panel discussion where you could get that book signed. It's pretty big coffee table book filled with a some glossy pics of MMA fighters. Yeah I saw Animal Kingdom, that dude got ****** by the police in that film.

Tom Hardy is in the next Dark Knight, that's what everyone was talking about.

Ha yeah he got fu**ked over big time, and he was one of the better brothers in it!

Ah yeah Hardy is playing Bane, his career has blown up since Bronson, he was sposed to be a young Mel Gibson in the new Mad Max as well but I think it's been postponed

[Vaughany]

a few weeks back on inside the mma, bas rutten was talking about brothers in mma, and said they should make a movie about two brothers who have to fight each other. he was acting as if he had a great original idea, and i couldnt help but laugh since thats exactly the plot of warrior. lol. gotta love bas.

haha

[MMAbetMASTA]

still on saff over smith?

Hey V,

I know you were already on saff over smith as stated in your other responses in diff threads. I initially said at pricey odds I thought it was risky and that i was gonna stay away. However, after doing more research, listening to you guys, and watching saff's fights, I actually really like saff to beat smith. I had an 'epiphany' about smith - he sucks. Not to discredit him, He's a cool guy and entertaining to watch, but the few big wins he does have he was drastically losing the fight until he landed a hail mary KO. And all the fights he lost, wellllll, were against B / A level competition. I think saff is actually that good, especially in the striking department and his ability to transition to different 'fight modes' ie IQ / positional sequences (similar to the praise fedor receives for his fluidity and adaptation during a fight). Saff seems really good and after lots of analysis he seems like the perfect style to handily beat smith. He really just has to watch out for smith's big hail mary haymaker, that's it.

At what odds would you play saff up to?

He just opened on my bookie site at -250. Already made a line play, and thinking about putting another 250 on him. On this card, I think he is the best pick in a style sense (meaning, stylistically, I think a saff victory is easiest to predict, where I think odds-wise / value, the best pick is on tate). What do you think? initially I told myself I def won't be playing saff above -175 or twood above -150 ish. Twood I am over, too risky at -250. But with saff I think I still like him at -250, so in the end thinking about risking $500 on him. What are your thoughts on this fight now that the line is out, do you still really like a play on saff and how confident?? I know you're big on prop bets and safety/hedge bets, but if you were only making str8 line bet, how much do you like this...? Thanks brother and GL!

V1y, Ladle, Kalarus, BJ, Rocky, Hannibal, wrecked, Hoff, I would like your insight to my questions as well if you're reading (All of you know your shit and really I value your opinions, even tho we've had our disagreements!), gratsi.

[Hannibal]

I agree with everything you said. Even though the odds aren't what we hoped, -230 was good enough for me to make a play.

It's hard to see Smith not getting clowned here. Smith is basically a can. Like you said, Tarec has great fight IQ, and the mental durability to fight a disciplined game for 3 rounds. He doesn't come charging in wildly when he thinks there is an opportunity, he doesnt tire and fade - smith has no chance to capitalize with his big hail mary.
I wouldnt be surprised if Tarec took him down.

[Hannibal]

Really like Saffiedine here. I think i can conservatively estimate saff to win at least 75% of the time here. At -241 he is now.. i can easily afford to play larger.



ps: anyone use the kelly criterion or similar formula for sizing wagers?

[NunyaBidness]

ps: anyone use the kelly criterion or similar formula for sizing wagers?

If you don't use kelly betting you're just tossing money around.

[bjpenn85]

Never heard about kelly betting, were can i read about it?

Common sense go far tho, i have lost money on two events the last year. I dont eff around

[Hannibal]

I learned about Kelly betting just recently. I saw the tool available on this website, and did some reading. I found that i was already sizing wagers quite similarly to the kelly method, but my ability to evaluate risk and manage bankroll had come from playing online poker for many years.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Hey V,

I know you were already on saff over smith as stated in your other responses in diff threads. I initially said at pricey odds I thought it was risky and that i was gonna stay away. However, after doing more research, listening to you guys, and watching saff's fights, I actually really like saff to beat smith. I had an 'epiphany' about smith - he sucks....

At what odds would you play saff up to?
...

V1y, Ladle, Kalarus, BJ, Rocky, Hannibal, wrecked, Hoff, I would like your insight to my questions as well if you're reading (All of you know your shit and really I value your opinions, even tho we've had our disagreements!), gratsi.

Agree -- Saff is the play over Smith; however, I'm curious why you see value in Saff at his odds and not Woodley?

We've got 3 fights here, where stylistically (given this is a quick overly simplified analysis), you've got a well-rounded fighter vs (more or less) one dimensional fighter. And gawdammit, the books priced all three fights accordingly...

Woodley vs Daley

Daley's kryptonite is wrestlers (though, I think his lack of TDD is somewhat exaggerated by many), and eventually, unless he lands one of his haymakers, he will be on his back in this fight where he is a fish out of water. Too many ways for Woodley to win this (decision via LnP, decision via wall n' stall as with his Saff fight, Woodley via sub -- I have a feeling Woodley puts Daley to sleep via sub)... I absolutely loved fading Daley vs Koscheck when they fought, and given this fight is priced similarly, I'll be looking to repeat that success; and also looking for some Woodley via sub prop action as well if 5dimes makes that available. All Tyron has to do here is not get KO'd...

Saff vs Smith

Here, you've got Smith with a "puncher's chance" vs Saff. Saff has demonstrated a well rounded game (striking, bit of sprawl, subs) and we all know what Smith brings to the table. Though, when I cap a fight, I'm looking to anticipate the action of a fight, and here, it's not as obvious as the Woodley-Daley fight, where you know, if Woodley has half a brain, he's taking that ground level stat where he has an overwhelming advantage... Saff clearly has better tools to work here, but nowhere (at this juncture) do I see an overwhelming (ie, potential exceptional value given the price) advantage such that he can dictate the fight. Perhaps, using his kickboxing vs Smith's wild haymakers if anything I suppose to control the stand-up and cage control... but unless he KO's Smith, or totally works him standing, it may go to decision where judges are notoriously unreliable. I'm not recalling Saff having great takedowns where he would be able to work subs on Smith... although, now that I'm typing that, I think I do recall some clever trips from him in the past... [someone refresh my memory]... basically, what I'm getting at here is that styistically, I think there is equal, if not more, value in Woodley than Saff... though, I am on both of those sides...

Kennedy vs Lawler

Another well-rounded guy vs brawler. But I think I'm gonna stay away here, as I have weird mojo with Lawler fights. I faded him vs Jacare, but the sting of his win over Manhoef still hurts ;p Lawler's TDD is pretty freaking stellar, so if he can fend off a few TD's from Kennedy keep the fight standing, maybe he works the upset... I dunno, I'm not gonna invest the time or money in capping this one further...

Good luck

[urge2kill]

Never heard about kelly betting, were can i read about it?

Common sense go far tho, i have lost money on two events the last year. I dont eff around

Think tank subforum has some good info on kelly betting.

[NunyaBidness]

Never heard about kelly betting, were can i read about it?

Common sense go far tho, i have lost money on two events the last year. I dont eff around

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=kelly%20betting

[MMAbetMASTA]

Never heard about kelly betting, were can i read about it?

Common sense go far tho, i have lost money on two events the last year. I dont eff around

neither have I... I'm curious, gonna check it out.

I have had a lot of formulas / bet routines presented to me, and I'll admit that numbers and breaking down odds are my weak area. However, more than anything I just go with my ability to pick fights, understand basic odds, and break down style comparisons. I think this is what you meant by common sense, and I whole heartidly agree that it goes far!!!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Agree -- Saff is the play over Smith; however, I'm curious why you see value in Saff at his odds and not Woodley?

We've got 3 fights here, where stylistically (given this is a quick overly simplified analysis), you've got a well-rounded fighter vs (more or less) one dimensional fighter. And gawdammit, the books priced all three fights accordingly...

Woodley vs Daley

Daley's kryptonite is wrestlers (though, I think his lack of TDD is somewhat exaggerated by many), and eventually, unless he lands one of his haymakers, he will be on his back in this fight where he is a fish out of water. Too many ways for Woodley to win this (decision via LnP, decision via wall n' stall as with his Saff fight, Woodley via sub -- I have a feeling Woodley puts Daley to sleep via sub)... I absolutely loved fading Daley vs Koscheck when they fought, and given this fight is priced similarly, I'll be looking to repeat that success; and also looking for some Woodley via sub prop action as well if 5dimes makes that available. All Tyron has to do here is not get KO'd...

Saff vs Smith

Here, you've got Smith with a "puncher's chance" vs Saff. Saff has demonstrated a well rounded game (striking, bit of sprawl, subs) and we all know what Smith brings to the table. Though, when I cap a fight, I'm looking to anticipate the action of a fight, and here, it's not as obvious as the Woodley-Daley fight, where you know, if Woodley has half a brain, he's taking that ground level stat where he has an overwhelming advantage... Saff clearly has better tools to work here, but nowhere (at this juncture) do I see an overwhelming (ie, potential exceptional value given the price) advantage such that he can dictate the fight. Perhaps, using his kickboxing vs Smith's wild haymakers if anything I suppose to control the stand-up and cage control... but unless he KO's Smith, or totally works him standing, it may go to decision where judges are notoriously unreliable. I'm not recalling Saff having great takedowns where he would be able to work subs on Smith... although, now that I'm typing that, I think I do recall some clever trips from him in the past... [someone refresh my memory]... basically, what I'm getting at here is that styistically, I think there is equal, if not more, value in Woodley than Saff... though, I am on both of those sides...

Kennedy vs Lawler

Another well-rounded guy vs brawler. But I think I'm gonna stay away here, as I have weird mojo with Lawler fights. I faded him vs Jacare, but the sting of his win over Manhoef still hurts ;p Lawler's TDD is pretty freaking stellar, so if he can fend off a few TD's from Kennedy keep the fight standing, maybe he works the upset... I dunno, I'm not gonna invest the time or money in capping this one further...

Good luck

Yea man, your simplified analysis is spot on and the bookies did get it right.

Kennedy lawler I am also out on. I guess kennedy openend around -165 but within 24 hours he was at -240. That is where he is at on my bookie site which didn't get the odds up until yesterday.

The reason I am in on saff over twood at the same price is daley. Like you said I think his tdd is a bit underrated and I think its improved a bit since daley's fight with KOS. Yet I still don't think its good enough to stop any D1 wrestler with a solid gameplan. My problem though is twood's 'green-ness' per se. While I have seen lots of great promise in him, there were instances in other fights where I saw problems that could arise in the daley fight. For one, Coy won his fight; not a robbery, but I clearly had it for coy as I think most website scorecards did. The saff fight I scored a draw, if not slightly leaning toward twood. In both those fights I saw woodley do what he does best - try and smother and get a td, keep it there with good positioning. However, in both fights he ate some leather trying to set up his tds, and in the 3rd round with saff it seemed like he was tiredd and knew he was gonna struggle to get the td and saff won the round with some effective strikes standing. COy lit his ass up too with very little openings. While daley is not near the grappler of saff, or wrestler of coy, I don't think he is a fish out of water. He's survived submission onslaughts from shileds for a round in some very bad spots (yes, he was later subbed, but impressed with his initial defense). Therefore I don't see him being finished, but you're def legit in your prediction of a twood sub, it could happen, but I think unlikely... If twood wins, its a boring UD imo. If you give daley room to move, and you're not a solid sub specialist, he isn't too shabby at getting back up. That is why KOS literally layed on him as close as he could be and barely threw any punches, and I don't remember many sub attempts outside the time he had his back (such a boring bullshit fight now that I remember lol, I felt daley's frustration afterwards!). What I am getting at is if twood doesn't come in with a boring, smothering minded gameplan, he is leaving himself open to damaging opportunity from daley. All daley needs is a few moments to get off with his hands, and I think he has better damaging striking than both coy and saff. I think he's learned in his fight with wrestlers that with what time he does have on the feet, he'd better use it to light his opponent up. I think we could see twood start tiring in the 3rd and being unsuccessful with the td, and getting knocked around on the feet. Or we could see him not follow a solid gameplan and go in there and swing for moments at a time with daley. Daley has some of the best hands in the sport, and some of the best p4p power. Smith has power, but some sloppy, sloppy technique. Daley on the other hand has some very pretty technique and this scares me. If it was daley fighting saff, I'd probably be leaning toward daley due to the power avantage. Sorry man, I know I am all over the place and dragging on/rambling, but I hope you see where i am getting at with why I like saff over smith more than twood over daley. I think twood wins, but against daley at those odds its just too risky. I see saff as ahaving a much better chance to win with regard to his opponents style and his own fight IQ.

Good discussion and GL!!!

[Vaughany]

Pending plays:


0.5 units on Woodley by decision (+120) & Evans by decision (+225);


0.5 units on Woodleny by decision (-200) or submission & Evans by decision (+225);


3.039 units on Woodley (-240), Not Yahya by decision (-1764), & Schaub inside the distance (+130);


1.126 units on Tate/Coenen to go the distance at +175 to win 2.127 units;

4 units on Tate at +120 to win 4.4 units.