Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Mr.Kitty]

This was the best event in a long time, dident watch until the end tho, got way too tired . Gonna watch the whole thing next weekend. Nice profit for me so I couldent be more satisfyed hitting the FOTN and all my main bets , looks like you made a killing yourself! Good job and nice rebound from last event

[Vaughany]

UFC 129 Review:

Final Summary of UFC 129 Plays:


12.6 units on GSP/Shields to go the distance at -114 to win 11.025 units;

6.157 units on GSP/Shields to not go the distance at +205 to win 12.622 units;

7.2 units on GSP/Shields to go the distance at -114 to win 6.3 units;

6.157 units on GSP/Shields to not go the distance at +175 to win 10.775 units;


17.512 units on Not Machida by decision at -286 to win 6.123 units;

5.1 units on Machida by decision at +350 to win 17.85 units;

14.695 units on Not Machida by decision at -240 to win 6.123 units;

4.2 units on Machida by decision at +350 to win 14.7 units;


15.726 units on Ellenberger/Pierson to go the distance at -105 to win 14.977 units;

14.8 units on Ellenberger/Pierson to not go the distance at +125 to win 18.5 units;


2.667 units on Henderson by TKO/KO or Decision at +187.5 to win 5 units;

2.5 units on Bocek at +110 to win 2.75 units;


5.667 units on Bocek/Henderson to go the distance at Evens to win 5.667 units;

5.5 units on Bocek/Henderson to not go the distance at +110 to win 6.05 units;


0.288 units on Macdonald by decision at +500 to win 1.44 units;


0.267 units on Aldo Submission of the Night at +1800 to win 4.806 units;


0.066 units on Shields Submission of the Night at +2500 to win 1.65 units;


2.006 units on Jensen/MacDonald to not go the distance at -150 to win 1.337 units;


1.359 units on Patrick/Roberts to go the distance at Evens to win 1.359 units;


1 unit on Machida by TKO/KO at +125 to win 1.25 units;


1 unit on GSP by decision at +120 to win 1.2 units;


5 units on Machida by TKO/KO or decision at -150 to win 3.462 units;


2.727 units on Diaz/Macdonald to go the distance at +150 to win 4.091 units;


1.4 units on Aldo KO of the Night at +500 to win 7 units;


3.6 units on Machida KO of the Night at +550 to win 19.8 units;


0.3 units on Jensen Quickest TKO/KO of the Night at +1500 to win 4.493 units;


4.05 units on Menjivar at -135 to win 3 units;

5 units on Menjivar at -143 to win 3.5 units;


Parlay: 8.897 units on Aldo & GSP to win 4.385 units;


0.599 units on Aldo by submission at +1200 to win 7.189 units.

Adding:

2.5 units on Machida by TKO/KO at +130 to win 3.25 units;

2.996 units on Diaz/MacDonald to go the distance at +120 to win 3.595 units;

Parlay: 2.996 units on GSP/Shields starts Rnd 3, Bocek/Henderson starts Rnd 2, & Diaz/Macdonald starts Rnd 2 to win 3.204 units;

And forgot to add a couple plays I made ages ago:

0.5 units on Aldo by decision at +800 to win 4 units;


5.991 units on Bocek/Henderson to go the distance at +170 to win 10.185 units;

7 units on Bocek/Henderson to not go the distance at +110 to win 7.7 units;


6.2 units on Machida/Couture to not go the distance at +160 to win 9.92 units;

6.213 units on Machida/Couture to go the distance at +137.5 to win 8.543 units;

6.2 units on Machida/Couture to not go the distance at +125 to win 7.75 units;

7.5 units on Machida/Couture to go the distance at +120 to win 9 units;


Pending Parlay: 0.613 units on Amir Kahn, Freire, Warren, & GSP to win 0.703 units.

UFC 129 Results:


Total stake: 206.749 units

Total return: 284.233 units

Profit: +77.484 units

Awesome event and close to perfect night for me betting wise...Machida getting KO of the Night helped a lot! All props came through with Macdonald gettin decision, Aldo decision, GSP decision, Jensen/Macdonald not goin distance, Ellenberger/Pierson not goin distance, Patrick/Roberts goin distance, Henderson decision and straight up money line play on Menjivar. Cant wait till the May to July period now when they'll be 6 events in space of 5 weeks!

[urge2kill]

Great job V

[xelance]

pretty bad night for me, only won machida KO of the night and machida inside the distance...lost about 5 units. Great job V

[marzenabudzinska]

nice job vaughany,,,awesome night yoy had! i just wonder where the hell you are able to bet all those kind of a varety of bets,,,,my books,only show the winner,draw or lost....and the odds are so small that is not possible to make any profit,,,i did not bet a single fight but are happy for you winning,,i love when any of us have the confidence in betting the books,that you show in yr comments!..i check out pinny,,only a copule of prop bets,bet online, maybe a little better..,bet 365 sucks for this,,,eurobet nothing at all..i wonder where you get all those bets,,,is awesome it sounds as if this game was made out for you,,,i know i not easy,,,,how did you master this? just by watching.....

[BIGDAY]

Good Work!
I also had a great night. Ellenberger was a pretty large play for me last night.

[Jordan23]

Man what an awesome night. Your best night yet?

[Vaughany]

This was the best event in a long time, dident watch until the end tho, got way too tired . Gonna watch the whole thing next weekend. Nice profit for me so I couldent be more satisfyed hitting the FOTN and all my main bets , looks like you made a killing yourself! Good job and nice rebound from last event

Nice one, yeah was was of the best events ever IMO...rarely do u see tht many crazy finishes...on any other night likes of Ellenberger, Vlad or Menjivar would of KO of the Night, nevermind Makdessi and Machida!

Great job V

Cheers fella

pretty bad night for me, only won machida KO of the night and machida inside the distance...lost about 5 units. Great job V

Unlucky bro, plenty of events coming up over next couple of months tho to bounce back on.

Good Work!
I also had a great night. Ellenberger was a pretty large play for me last night.

I thought Ellenberger was gonna have more trouble with Pierson last night but Pierson's poor defence and Jake's serious KO power squashed tht inclination! Gd job man.

[Vaughany]

Man what an awesome night. Your best night yet?

Awesome fights for sure and yeah best night for me so far

[Vaughany]

Record Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units

Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +278.723 units

[GoGoGadget]

Whats the point in including the arbs? I think it would be cool to at least have a separate record for just your fight/prop picks not including the free money arbs.
Congrats on the win

[spargament]

helluva night v. i tip my hat, props.

[Chairib]

first time slammer

[Vaughany]

Whats the point in including the arbs? I think it would be cool to at least have a separate record for just your fight/prop picks not including the free money arbs.
Congrats on the win

Mainly just to show how easy it can actually be to make profits from betting on MMA, and sometimes I'll make a play without the intention of arbing and post it on here, but then due to line movement changes make the decision to arb out for guaranteed no risk play...such as with the Henderson/Bocek fight goin the distance last night. I've also just been lazy and not been updating my own spreadsheet and so have been using this to record every play I make. I will probably start just showing my single moneyline plays and prop plays on here in future and leave the arbs for my own spreadsheet records. I did start showing a separate record on here for just moneyline plays and props a few events ago and will update that tomorrow, just takes a while going through all my plays and finding motivation and time to do it!

[Vaughany]

helluva night v. i tip my hat, props.

Thank you squire!

[Ladle]

Really fantastic job on this card bro. Great stuff.

I was looking at a +13 unit night until Brilz got wiped out by Matyushenko. Stupid hedge ruined everything and caused me to more or less break even. Definitely put way too much money on that fight, but I guess I've learned my lesson.

[Vaughany]

Really fantastic job on this card bro. Great stuff.

I was looking at a +13 unit night until Brilz got wiped out by Matyushenko. Stupid hedge ruined everything and caused me to more or less break even. Definitely put way too much money on that fight, but I guess I've learned my lesson.

Cheers mate, yeah that Matyushenko finish was a big surprise. I was in similar situation with the Diaz/Daley hedge that I did on last event, got screwed over by Diaz not winning by sub or decision, except tht was not as solid as ur hedge as chances of Diaz finishing Daley with strikes was greater then Vlad finishing Brilz by TKO/KO! Plenty of events coming up for u to bounce back on tho! U gonna be on Travis Browne to beat Struve?

[Ladle]

Cheers mate, yeah that Matyushenko finish was a big surprise. I was in similar situation with the Diaz/Daley hedge that I did on last event, got screwed over by Diaz not winning by sub or decision, except tht was not as solid as ur hedge as chances of Diaz finishing Daley with strikes was greater then Vlad finishing Brilz by TKO/KO! Plenty of events coming up for u to bounce back on tho! U gonna be on Travis Browne to beat Struve?

Yes, plenty of events coming up! And I certainly will be betting on Browne. I'm thinking he'll come out as the dog too.

[Vaughany]

Yes, plenty of events coming up! And I certainly will be betting on Browne. I'm thinking he'll come out as the dog too.

Good to hear, and yeah I'm hoping he'll come out at +110 to +125 range with Struve at -140 to -160 or something. He was +150 dog against Kongo so not totally irrational to think he'll be dog against Struve as well who is at similar position in the HW rankings to Kongo but coming in with a 2 fight win-streak.

[Vaughany]

Record Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units

Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +278.723 units

Single outright plays (since UFC Live on Versus 3): +17.713 units (5/8) (Palhares, Weidman, Cavalcante, Semerzier, Chandler, Foster, Robichaux, Menjivar).

[bjpenn85]

My best night as well. 50 units up. woho!

[bjpenn85]

what about betting against cody mckenzie?

[Vaughany]

what about betting against cody mckenzie?

Yeah I'll be putting at least 5 units (possibly 10) on a Palaszewski and Mayday McDonald double as I expect both of them to be at -225 to -300 range so not worth single plays. Palaszewski is a BJJ black-belt with an abundance of experience so I find it hard to imagine Mckenzie choking him out - and obviously Bart has a big stand-up advantage. Cariaso has decent muay-thai but his grappling is no way near Mayday's level and Mayday can probably get the better of him standing as well I think due to his speed and movement.

Also gonna be pretty big on Browne, possibly hedged with Struve Submission of the Night to be safe

Torres/Johnson to decision or Mightymouse by decision will also be big plays

Renan Barao Submission of the Night, Mayday and Grove could be good bets to get SOTN tho

Rampage KO of the Night and Fight to go the distance hedge

Mir/Nelson to go the distance at +200 or better

Already got some on Edgar/Maynard going the distance and Story/Alves going distance.

[bjpenn85]

Sounds good. Macdonald though looked good in the first round. But after that was scary. I may be a bit cautious but at this point after the last fight i feel like he gassed and didnt fight as good, what are your take on that?

[Vaughany]

Sounds good. Macdonald though looked good in the first round. But after that was scary. I may be a bit cautious but at this point after the last fight i feel like he gassed and didnt fight as good, what are your take on that?

Figueroa had great resilience and sub defence, and the triangle and arm-bar attempts during majority of second round contributed a lot to Mayday getting tired and looking gassed out in final round, yet he was still able to get several takedowns even after being rocked by Figueroa. I don't see Mayday having the same trouble with finishing Cariaso once he takes it to the ground.

[bjpenn85]

Nice. I dont have anything else to add. I cant see other tempting bets beside what you wrote, and am out.

[bjpenn85]

and maybe a small bet on hamill decision 6.50 @paddy?

[bjpenn85]

haha, the limit is 3 euros. greedy bitches.

[bjpenn85]

Vaugh, which betting sites do you use for props besides paddy?

It seems like paddy have limits from 3-20 euros range on next card. Unacceptable limits imo. No point offering bets then.

[bjpenn85]

Off course 5dimes, but most bets are not available for next card on 5dimes at the moment

[terpkeg]

haha, the limit is 3 euros. greedy bitches.

No point in betting those limits as you dont want to help them set their line. Maybe your account is just flagged. Everyone have same limits there?

[Vaughany]

Vaugh, which betting sites do you use for props besides paddy?

It seems like paddy have limits from 3-20 euros range on next card. Unacceptable limits imo. No point offering bets then.

Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, Stanjames, and William Hill but they won't have props available until the week of the card. Have u been signed up to paddy for a while and placed a lot of bets? You dont usually get limitted until uve won a couple hundred from them.

[bjpenn85]

I won 200 euros at paddypower last event. So thats why i all the wagers are like 3 to 18 euros? cause im flagged? **** me hard in the ass. I won a couple of hundred euros on 5dimes as well, do you get limited there also?

[Ladle]

I won 200 euros at paddypower last event. So thats why i all the wagers are like 3 to 18 euros? cause im flagged? **** me hard in the ass. I won a couple of hundred euros on 5dimes as well, do you get limited there also?

Not as badly as you do on Paddy. I've been limited to £60 on 5dimes props in the past, whereas I've been limited to £3 on some Paddy props before. The strict restrictions don't last forever, but you can expect to have them temporarily imposed after you take them to the cleaners a few times.

[bjpenn85]

take them to the cleaners? as i am not english nor american, these are the types of phrases that intellectually makes me look like a three year old, come again please?

AND, how long can i expekt to have this curse over my head? Do they suddenly remove the limit, if i continue winning?