vaughany please reply to my questions,,, i pm you,,,,i saw you at that site, pls aggregate me as a colega and take my soccer picks, i will do the same with yr fight picks but first need to understand what books offer those type of bets? that's why i ask for yr advice,,take care bro!!
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Im still gonna take Browne at -120.
What do you think of Demetrious Johnson vs Miguel Torres?Comment -
Yeah I'd still of taken Browne had he come out at -120.
I think Johnson has a solid chance of gettin a decision, don't see him finishing Torres tho. Torres main limitation is his wrestling, however he has a dangerous guard so guess we will see how good Johnson sub defence really is. Yamamoto, Page, and Pace are not dangerous guys off their back so we don't really know how Johnson deals with an active guard, however he was preparing for Renan Barao originally so I'm sure he's been workin on sub-defence solidy. What we do know is he's the quickest guy in the division, never gets tired and mixes up striking with takedowns effectively which means he always has a great chance. Im not convinced Zahabi's favourite conservative gameplan of jabbing and circling (which worked fine against a wild and non-cerebral fighter in Banuelos) is going to necessarily work against a guy like Johnson. 'll be lookin at Fight to go the distance prop or Johnson by decision depending on odds. Could also be a strong FOTN contender.Comment -
UFC 131 Plays:
0.8 units on Dos Santos by TKO/KO at +162.5 to win 1.3 units;
0.5 units on Carwin by TKO/KO at +250 to win 1.25 units.Comment -
After making a nice profit from my Machida KO of the Night play at UFC 129, I thought I'd start giving my thoughts and a more detailed breakdown of what fights I feel have best chance of being FOTN, and which fighters I believe have best chance of getting KO of the Night and Submission of the Night for future events starting with 130. This is mainly for my own benefit so that I can see how often I'm thinking on the right lines, regardless of whether I actually place any bets on these types of props or not. At 129 I was talking quite a bit about Aldo/Hominick getting FOTN but foolishly didn't put anything on it because I was too busy concentrating and sorting out other plays. Hopefully by doing this it will improve my organisation and increase clarity a little!
UFC 130 Fight of the Night Breakdown/Predictions:
As a disclaimer, bare in mind that I think it is tougher to predict FOTN than it is to predict KO of the Night or Submission of the Night! Also this is done without knowing what the odds are yet as they obviously aren't out till couple days before the event.
Strong chance of being FOTN: Torres/Johnson, Alves/Story
Reasonable chance: Rampage/Hamill, Stann/Santiago, Mcdonald/Cariaso, Struve/Brown, Mir/Nelson
Low chance: Grove/Boetsch, Barao/Escovedo, Tibau/Palaszewski
Torres/Johnson has a very good chance of taking the FOTN IMO. As we've seen recently, the fights featuring the lightwerweights (BW, FW, LW) have been tending to win the FOTN awards - 128 was LW's Barboza/Njokuani, UFC Fight Night (Nog vs Davis) was McDonald/Figueroa, & UFC 129 FOTN was FW's Aldo/Hominick. Last time a SPIKE card fight won FOTN was a LW scrap between Cerrone and Kelly at 126. Apart from the obvious that both guys are high level fighters and very quick which always increases the potential for an exciting fight, there should also be some good stand-up exchanges - Johnson particularly likes to mix things up and shouldn't allow Torres to utilize a similar jab and circle strategy that he used against Banuelos which was effective but also not aesthetically pleasing to the casual viewer. Moreover, this fight and the styles of the fighters should also present a lot of scrambles on the ground. Should Mighty Mouse take down Torres, we won't see a similar situation to the Yamamoto fight where Johnson was able to just stay in Yamamoto's inactive guard scoring points methodologically. Instead we should see an aggressive guard from Torres - triangle attempts, elbows and sweep attempts which will ultimately lead to scrambles which always makes the ground game more appealing. With both guys not having great KO power, the fight should also go at least 2 rounds which increases chance of a FOTN (unless Torres manages to slap a triangle or something on Johnson in the first round if Mighty Mouse is sloppy after landing a take down).
The fight that I think has the best chance of trumping Mighty Mouse/Torres is the Alves/Story fight. Main reasons for this are that both fighters are tough and have solid chins - Story has never been finished and Alves has only been TKO'd from a freak Fitch up-kick and follow up punches that is unlikely to ever happen again; both are aggressive, and is a main card fight now. However, Alves has only had one FOTN before in his career which was against one of the FOTN kings in Lytle. Guess the fact that Alves has faced strong wrestlers and has finished some of his fights early has meant that he didn't have a strong chance of getting FOTN. Story has never won a FOTN but he's also never been on the main-card of a PPV before. FOTN chances will be reduced if Story can implement a similar strategy to what he used against Hendricks, however I expect Alves to be able to counter Story's wrestling and be strong enough to prevent Story holding him against the cage. With a few good stand-up exchanges this fight definitely has a good chance of getting FOTN.
Out of the 4 fights that I see having a "reasonable" chance of getting FOTN, I think Stann/Santiago perhaps has the best chance. It's an interesting match-up stylistically, Santiago has the grappling advantage IMO, Stann has the size and power advantage and probably better camp. However, it may be more likely that Stann get's KO of the Night (due to his power and Santiago's susceptible chin); or Santiago gets Sub of the Night. Stann was involved in a FOTN once before in his fight against Massenzio and was unlucky to not get KO of the Night or FOTN at 125 (Leben fight) due to the great Edgar comeback and Stephens KO of Davis. Stann has a great chin, power and improved sub defence which means he he can contribute to making this an exciting fight for sure (having solid lengthy blackbelt in Dave Branch in his camp will help). Santiago also has a fan-friendly style and was involved in the Fight of the Year last year after his 5 round war with Misaki in Sengoku. THe difference is that Misaki didn't offer the same KO threat that Stann offers and if Santiago goes and gets knocked out in the first round then it won't be a contender for FOTN.
Any fight involving Struve always has potential to be exciting, as we all know the dude is incredibly resilient, aggressive (especially from his guard) and has some power. However, I'm expecting Browne to TKO Struve in the first round in a similar fashion to Nelson, or at least smother Struve on the ground leading to a GnPnd finish which Stojnic and Morecraft almost managed to pull off. Also, if the fight does get past the second round there is a good chance that Browne loses a lot of energy which could lead to him being finished by Struve, or even worst - a slow, cumbersome final 2 rounds which won't be appealing possibly repeating the Kongo/Browne fight. Mir/Nelson is another HW match-up on the main card. I'm leaning towards thinking that this will not be a particularly riveting fight. This is mainly because I expect there to be quite a lot of jostling for position against the cage, and because I expect Mir to try and utilise an elusive and conservative strategy similar to the Cro-Cop fight because he's apprehensive of getting caught by Nelson's big over hand right. The fact that they are old buddies and that Mir didn't really want the fight also raises some questions about how motivated they will be. My final reservation is that if it goes to the ground, Mir has an aggressive guard as we know, however Nelson has stifling top control due to his shape and high level BJJ so we could see a stalemate on the ground. However, Mir has said that the key to beating Nelson is to press forward and not let him come at you which would suggest that we could see both men meet in the middle. But what Mir says and does in fights are two different things, as although he is very cerebral and great at talking about what he should do and plans to do (also has great post-fight analysis and hindsight!), he doesn't alway implement his strategy effectively in the octagon. Also, quite significantly, it is worth noting that a heavyweight fight hasn't been FOTN since September at UFC 119 when Mitrione/Beltran shared it with Sherk/Dunham (and that was only because Dana didn't give Mir the KO of the Night to prove a point so there was a spare spot - pretty sure Sherk/Dunham would of got FOTN over Mitrione/Beltran otherwise). Another fight that comes under the "reasonable" chance is McDonald/Cariaso fight. McDonald got FOTN last time against Figueroa in an excellent fight, but this was only FOTN because Mayday wasn't able to put Figueroa away in first round with his sub attempts, and because the main card lacked any particularly exciting fights (the Hardy/Johnson fight was a big anti-climax) and Nog/Davis was not exciting. IN this fight against Cariaso of course it could be similar to the Figueroa fight as Cariaso also has decent Muay Thai and cardio to go 3 rounds, however, I think McDonald will be a lot more clinical this time and will put Cariaso away early with an armbar or rear-naked similarly to what he did against Godfrey, meaning that FOTN will be difficult considering an early finish and being on the undercard never helps. Finally, the main event between Rampage and Hamill. By being main event that automatically gives it a chance, however it is usually the five round main events that take FOTN rather than the 3 rounders (for instance Maynard/Edgar, Pettis/Henderson, Rampage/Henderson). However, I either see a Rampage TKO/KO leading to him getting KO of the Night or a decision where Hamill takes it because he manages to take down Rampage and have enough top control to show "octagon control" or a decision for Rampage due to stuffing Hamill's takedowns and landing more effective shots as per the Machida fight. Ultimately I don't think it will be as exciting as a couple of the other main card fights, however due to Hamill's heart and resilience and Rampage's power and solid chin we can't rule out this getting FOTN.
The other 3 fights that I think have a low chance is mainly because the combination of how they match-up stylistically and because of not being on main-card. Tibau/Palaszewski perhaps has a greater chance than Im giving it credit for, Palaszewski is an exciting aggressive fighter and Tibau is tough to finish so could be a 3 round war, however I expect Tibau to get takedowns and smother Palaszewski on the ground for a couple of minutes of each round which will not be too exciting. With regards to the Barao/Escovedo fight, I expect Barao to submit Escovedo within 2 rounds, however, again if he doesn't submit Escovedo it could end up being a solid entertaining fight. Grove/Boetsch could also actually be a good back and forth fight, I just think that other fights will be better.
As always would appreciate your thoughts - positive or negative, what you agree or disagree with etc..., as always helps augment my own opinions and ultimately my bets! Will post my KO of the Night and Sub of the Night breakdown/predictions in due course!Comment -
wow vaughany what i nice write up..!!!
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I DI THE SAME.....HERE,,, THERE.... like the santisima.....3 in one....just saw ufc live betting...in bet 365..hope i learn how this go before i go brokeComment -
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i asume you are predicting skyscreaper will fall again?
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Hehe then we'r on the same page! but the fight was taken down from 5d... will they put it back?Comment -
I managed to put $100 on it before they took it down. Will probably be back up on Tuesday evening along with the Torres/Mighty Mouse odds and possibly Grove/Boetsch as they are both on Spike card. Might even get put up tomorrow, never know with 5dimes/sportbet. Doubt tht Browne will be +130 that I got him at tho.Comment -
Nice writeup. I agree, its either torres johnson or alves story. Probably torres johnson. I like Johnson by decision, tibau by decision and Browne itd.Comment -
vaughany, what is the number after ufc..130...i guess is the event number,,,,but each fight is taking place on saturdays nights?...correct me if i am wrong? sorry but as you know i know nothing about martial arts....also if i manage to bet on these fights could i just bet on winners,,not hedging and taking props,,just one on one like traditional boxers fights...or this way maybe i won't profit? just give me yr thoughts...bro,,,take my soccer picks for the weekend---place them as draw not bet----and make multiple with them-----this is what i want to do with yr one vs. one winners just need to find a book that has the fights and allows multiple,patents,goliath and those types of fights,,if i find it i will do fine,,cause even the reject many of this bets and cuts down the size of yr accumulators and multiples,,,i truly think is the best way to beat the books....remember if you play them---osasuna--depor--hercules draw not bet bol pal.
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Awesome link V.Comment -
Would you pick Browne over Kongo in a rematch? I think Kongo could have easily won the first fight but he kept grabbing the shorts... stupid stupid!Comment -
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At the same odds of +150 that I got him at last time then yes I would probably pick Browne over Kongo again in a rematch. Afterall that fight proved it's pretty much a toss of the coin so the value is with whoever is the dog at + odds. Browne won the first round, he rocked Kongo and got too overzealous looking for the knockout. In second round it was close but Browne was still able to get a takedown at end of round. Third round Kongo had a point deducted and did no damage, just held Browne against the cage then again Browne got a takedown at the end. For me it was a draw or Browne split decision.Comment -
vaughany do not like paddy power,,20 days to reopen my account after sending the required documents several times...now is re-establish again,,,and when start to use i do not like their display,,it reminds me kind of betfair, i do not give value to my money when i am not comfortable with the site,,i know i will lose all there....will just open a serious 5dimes account and try to understand your picks but just placing the winners not the props and exotics, that you are so damn good at.....
thanks for all the inputs colega!1
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bro, forgot to said,,thanks for all the inputs!!Comment -
UFC 130 Plays so far (excluding arbs):
Single outright plays:
6.124 units on Travis Browne at +130 to win 7.961 units;
4 units on Stann at +110 to win 4.4 units;
Prop plays:
6.445 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -162.5 to win 3.966 units;
11.7 units on Struve/Browne to not go the distance at -187.5 to win 6.24 units;
1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units;
0.824 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at -120 to win 0.687 units;
6.875 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -137.5 to win 5 units;
1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at Evens to win 1.982 units;
3.556 units on Alves by decision at +225 to win 8 units;
0.427 units on Alves by decision at +162.5 to win 0.694 units;
0.8 units on Nelson by TKO/KO at +500 to win 4 units;
0.2 units on Stann by TKO/KO at +250 to win 0.5 units.Comment -
.,ljmComment -
how did u get browne +130 and -162.5 not to go the distance? unreal oddsComment
