Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Don't sleep on MacDonald, that kid has some skills.

Yeah I need to re-watch his fights before I make any rash decisions!

What do think about Randy/Machida... do u agree that he'll be elusive enough and have good enough grappling to resist a COuture/Vera situation? The way he tossed Thiago Silva around makes me think he'll be comfortable with Randy even if he does get tied up against the cage.

[Poppa Catfish]

I'm uncomfortable with Machida's style and his mental game. Those first two rounds against Rampage were fairly lackluster, and I don't think I can back him here.

Couture doesn't have the naked aggression to play right into Machida's game, and we are probably looking at a grind em out pace since Machida doesn't utilize an attacking style all that well. So I have the pace definitely favoring Couture. If Randy can pick his spots, press against cage or look to tie up and steal a couple of rounds, Machida might not warm up in time to wrestle a decision away from Couture.

[Vaughany]

Picture Jose Aldo beating the tar out of Mike Brown to initially win the WEC featherweight title. Then picture him hammering away at Urijah Faber's legs for five rounds. Finish it off by visualizing his massacre of challenger Manny Gamburyan at WEC 52.

Scary, huh?

What's even more terrifying is the recently revealed fact that "Scarface" did it all with a bum shoulder.

The UFC featherweight champ casually mentioned the previous injuries when explaining the reason he pulled out of his original title defense against Josh Grispi, which was scheduled for Jan. 1, 2011, to reporters during the UFC 129 conference call today.

Here's his story:


Quote:
"There are two things that were bothering me. The first was on my neck, C5 and C6 [vertebrae], there was some pain on the disk. The main injury was my right shoulder which I think I injured during the Mike Brown fight. After that I still fought Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan. In both those fights, I felt my shoulder, especially fighting a wrestler like Faber, defending the takedowns, it put a lot of wear on my shoulder. I felt I just needed some time off to get back to 100 percent. I just needed rehab, not surgery."

[Poppa Catfish]

I will add that Rampage didn't have too much trouble in the clinch department, and I guess I think that is a fairer comparison wrestling wise than Thiago Silva. In fact Rampage pretty much Couture'd Machida in those first two rounds.

[Poppa Catfish]

Picture Jose Aldo beating the tar out of Mike Brown to initially win the WEC featherweight title. Then picture him hammering away at Urijah Faber's legs for five rounds. Finish it off by visualizing his massacre of challenger Manny Gamburyan at WEC 52.

Scary, huh?

What's even more terrifying is the recently revealed fact that "Scarface" did it all with a bum shoulder.

The UFC featherweight champ casually mentioned the previous injuries when explaining the reason he pulled out of his original title defense against Josh Grispi, which was scheduled for Jan. 1, 2011, to reporters during the UFC 129 conference call today.

Here's his story:


Quote:
"There are two things that were bothering me. The first was on my neck, C5 and C6 [vertebrae], there was some pain on the disk. The main injury was my right shoulder which I think I injured during the Mike Brown fight. After that I still fought Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan. In both those fights, I felt my shoulder, especially fighting a wrestler like Faber, defending the takedowns, it put a lot of wear on my shoulder. I felt I just needed some time off to get back to 100 percent. I just needed rehab, not surgery."

Not very shocking, only an idiot thinks these fighters are 100%. His opponents probably all had a litany of physical ailments as well. A total non issue.

[Vaughany]

Not very shocking, only an idiot thinks these fighters are 100%. His opponents probably all had a litany of physical ailments as well. A total non issue.

True, Hominick fought Garcia with a broken thumb!

[Vaughany]

I will add that Rampage didn't have too much trouble in the clinch department, and I guess I think that is a fairer comparison wrestling wise than Thiago Silva. In fact Rampage pretty much Couture'd Machida in those first two rounds.

Again very true. Machida had to worry about Rampage's KO power tho which was why he was so tentative (and as he has admitted too tentative). Wont have to worry about Couture's KO power in this one...but nonetheless I wont be surprised if Couture grapplefucks him to a decision!

[Poppa Catfish]

Again very true. Machida had to worry about Rampage's KO power tho which was why he was so tentative (and as he has admitted too tentative). Wont have to worry about Couture's KO power in this one...but nonetheless I wont be surprised if Couture grapplefucks him to a decision!

I didn't see much difference in the way Machida acted in that fight, only fight that I can recall him not being in counter mode was the disastrous second Shogun fight.

I don't buy that theory, I think you could make a case that Rampage's drastic change in style might have thrown Lyoto off, but I don't know. that looked like the usual feinting bicycle riding counter fighter Machida that we are all used to seeing.

[Poppa Catfish]

From what I see you are looking at a slow paced low action fight that probably will go to decision.

If you agree with that and are still taking Machida then you are banking on the judges siding with

1) the striker over the wrestler
2) the foreigner over Captain America

Best of luck to you, but those historically aren't very good angles

[Vaughany]

I didn't see much difference in the way Machida acted in that fight, only fight that I can recall him not being in counter mode was the disastrous second Shogun fight.

I don't buy that theory, I think you could make a case that Rampage's drastic change in style might have thrown Lyoto off, but I don't know. that looked like the usual feinting bicycle riding counter fighter Machida that we are all used to seeing.

Yeah Machida being tentative is nothing new, but in comparison to the Thiago Silva and Rashad fights he was a lot more tentative! Randy has pretty much confirmed he will be retiring after this fight, he already has filming schedule for "Set-up" starring 50 Cent...no doubt be a shocker! I guess Randy will be going all out to end on a high note and he is just the type of character to pull it off!

[Poppa Catfish]

ha!

What is Couture's record in fights before retiring? 5-2 I would imagine

[Vaughany]

From what I see you are looking at a slow paced low action fight that probably will go to decision.

If you agree with that and are still taking Machida then you are banking on the judges siding with

1) the striker over the wrestler
2) the foreigner over Captain America

Best of luck to you, but those historically aren't very good angles

Might be slow paced but I'm counting on Machida landing a counter punch tht takes Randy out similar to what Nog landed in the first round of their fight or a flurry at some point like he landed on Rampage in their third round. I agree tho that if it goes to decision Randy will take it unless Machida does considerable damage, but with Randy's aging chin I see Machida finishing him if he does land anything at all.

[Vaughany]

Some great footage of Wanderlei sparring...watch 1:35 where he goes ape-shiiit after an axe kick!...

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Additional UFC 129 play:

1.938 units on Machida/Couture to go the distance at +137.5 to win 2.665 units.

This will be a hedge to Machida by TKO/KO.

[Ladle]

Don't sleep on MacDonald, that kid has some skills.

Not saying he isn't skilled. He just hasn't fought anyone with a guard remotely comparable to Diaz's.

[Vaughany]

Not saying he isn't skilled. He just hasn't fought anyone with a guard remotely comparable to Diaz's.

Yeah, noticed Diaz has gone back to being favourite on sportbet -129.

Wer r u based in England BTW Ladle?...weather is decent right now!

[Ladle]

Yeah, noticed Diaz has gone back to being favourite on sportbet -129.

Wer r u based in England BTW Ladle?...weather is decent right now!

Yes, cracking day! Just about to go out and enjoy it.

I live in Hertfordshire at the moment but I'm moving to Kingston next year. How about you mate?

[Vaughany]

Yes, cracking day! Just about to go out and enjoy it.

I live in Hertfordshire at the moment but I'm moving to Kingston next year. How about you mate?

Oh really, I grew up near Herts - Denham/Chalfont area then moved to Northamptonshire a few years ago, been livin in Oxford last couple of years whilst at uni (Brookes!) and now in Brackley near Silverstone...wanna move back down to Herts or London area tho in near future, not much to do up here!

[Ladle]

Oh really, I grew up near Herts - Denham/Chalfont area then moved to Northamptonshire a few years ago, been livin in Oxford last couple of years whilst at uni (Brookes!) and now in Brackley near Silverstone...wanna move back down to Herts or London area tho in near future, not much to do up here!

Ah, good stuff. Part of the reason I decided to move to Kingston was because it's pretty much got everything you could want in a town. Great place to get drunk as well, so I won't get bored.

[Vaughany]

Ah, good stuff. Part of the reason I decided to move to Kingston was because it's pretty much got everything you could want in a town. Great place to get drunk as well, so I won't get bored.

Yeah I hear the nightlife is decent, was meant to go to Oceana there a few weeks ago with a mate who lives in Windsor but always seem to end up in Clapham!

[Vaughany]

Other pending plays:

3.656 units on Edgar/Maynard to go the distance at -275 to win 1.329 units;

1.982 units on Alves/Story to go the distance at -150 to win 1.321;

1.365 units on Rampage/Hamill to go the distance at Evens to win 1.365 units.

[Vaughany]

Arianny Celeste's debut single...painfull...!

[Ladle]

Arianny Celeste's debut single...painfull...!

That's ******* diabolical. Good job she's hot.

[ufcmma36]

for some reason I keeep seeing Couture steamroll thru Lyoto with nonstop takedowns an gnp. Couture gets KO'd! definitely. theres is no way he tries to stand an strike... Couture shouldnt have much a problem taking him down. Maybe a boring dec or late TKO, but either way +650 is pretty good for Couture inside the distance!!!

I called this awhile back definitely hope Im right

[Vaughany]

I called this awhile back definitely hope Im right

U put "Couture get's KO'd. definitely" but then say Couture inside the distance?

[jin2daj]

hmm i like your machida tko and fight to go the distance hedge.

[sideloaded]

nog dropped couture twice and didnt finish him. The value is on Couture but if machida wins I defiantly see it being a decision. Machida by ko is very slim because Couture thought he had better boxing then Nog and tried to trade and sat in the pocket for two rounds. Couture is going to pretty copy and paste the game plan from the Vera fight for this one. However I actually think Vera has better TDD then Machida. Machida could sweep Randy on the ground but If Randy gets him down (which I think he will) I can see Machida being stuck there for almost the whole round. I got money down on Couture at +300.

[Vaughany]

nog dropped couture twice and didnt finish him. The value is on Couture but if machida wins I defiantly see it being a decision. Machida by ko is very slim because Couture thought he had better boxing then Nog and tried to trade and sat in the pocket for two rounds. Couture is going to pretty copy and paste the game plan from the Vera fight for this one. However I actually think Vera has better TDD then Machida. Machida could sweep Randy on the ground but If Randy gets him down (which I think he will) I can see Machida being stuck there for almost the whole round. I got money down on Couture at +300.

Yeah but Nog didn't finish him because he made the mistake of going for the submission in the first round even though Randy was a sittin duck waiting to be finished with strikes.

[Poppa Catfish]

I somewhat agree with sideloaded, I think Couture chose to trade with Nog (though I disagree that he did so because he thought he had better boxing, probably just didn't like his chances in Nog's guard), and that he won't do so with Machida.

Beauty of MMA is that he doesn't have to engage Machida with stand up, if he doesn't want to. I have little doubt that he would get KO'd if he fought that fight, but its going to be awfully difficult for Machida to counter if Couture engages him in a wrestling match.

Again I agree with sideloaded, the value is on Couture, so either that or no bet.

[Vaughany]

Adding:

3.049 units on Diaz/Macdonald to go the distance at +120 to win 3.659 units.

[Vaughany]

I somewhat agree with sideloaded, I think Couture chose to trade with Nog (though I disagree that he did so because he thought he had better boxing, probably just didn't like his chances in Nog's guard), and that he won't do so with Machida.

Beauty of MMA is that he doesn't have to engage Machida with stand up, if he doesn't want to. I have little doubt that he would get KO'd if he fought that fight, but its going to be awfully difficult for Machida to counter if Couture engages him in a wrestling match.

Again I agree with sideloaded, the value is on Couture, so either that or no bet.

Yeah he was cautious of Nog's guard I think, there was a moment early in first round wer it went to ground (not sure if Nog pulled guard) and Randy just got back up.

[Chairib]

Yeah I need to re-watch his fights before I make any rash decisions!

What do think about Randy/Machida... do u agree that he'll be elusive enough and have good enough grappling to resist a COuture/Vera situation? The way he tossed Thiago Silva around makes me think he'll be comfortable with Randy even if he does get tied up against the cage.

It wouldn't hurt to take another look at MacDonald, he's still has somethings to work on but his grappling is nice.

I'm still working on my thoughts about the Couture/Machida fight, a couple of variables here including Machida's fighting style and the fact this is supposed to be Randy's last fight. This is a retirement fight and that in itself raises some major red flags for me.

[The HOFF]

I think any bets on Couture should be Couture wins by DEC. I don't think he has any way to finish Machida and I could see a 3 round cage hump.

[Poppa Catfish]

I agree with The Hoff.

Your current hedge looks extremely good I must add, but not having access to those lines I am trying to find my own way to make money off this fight.