It's +1350 at DSI right now.
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ya` know,after watching the weigh in and looking at the odds,i`m playing small on roller via submission...
if you watched the weigh-in,guillard was acting foolish....trying to clown roller...i expected this from guillard when he`s on a roll...he`s a front runner and has a tendency to become full of himself...
i can see him taking roller lightly and getting choked out...it`s very telling that he`s a -275 fave flat...but roller is only getting +425 for "wins by submission"...being that i have guillard in a par,i`m going to play this as a sort of hedge...
if guillard had his head on straight,the sky would be the limit...but,he doesn`t...and probably never will...
and yes...i`m liking that bowles quickest k.o,too....Comment -
Sounds like a smart move to me. In a lot of ways, Roller is exactly the kind of guy who Guillard has struggled with in the past. We know Roller is a great wrestler, and we know he's good at getting the back and sinking in a choke. Can he take Melvin down and get back control? Well, he probably gets knocked out trying, but it's still a definite possibility.Comment -
hehe, no doubt
Cruz all the way up to -200, haha. Even I didn't think it reach that high. Should be an easy hedge if Wiman comes through.
a little insurance to cover this parlay. 2-0 on the dogs so far.
parlay x.75
Chris Leben +165
cruz-190
Leben wins by 3 round decision +750 x.15Comment -
yeah, you f*ckers drove that Cruz line the opposite way I imagined... I had to buy at -160... thought public chalk was gonna bring it back my way... but all the gawdamn sharps must be pounding Cruz... I love Cruz here... got a bit tied up on him ML, and parlay...
GL sirComment -
Dos Anjos is the better striker as i believedComment -
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Still don't understand how wiman lost a decision. He clearly won round 2. 1 and 3 were close but for it to be unanimous makes me suspicious of the judges. Good pick. We were robbed.Comment -
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yeah, inexcusable really.
Fight went exactly by my script until that third round.The reaility is that I made a bad play. A big part of my reasoning for taking wiman was that i though he would have a clear advantage in the third. Whether he was coasting or not, Siver looked better than I imagined he would in the final round.
Easy to say now but anjos should have been a much larger play for me, I actually had him capped at even or possibly as a slight favorite and I only put 2.5 units on him.
I maxed him out early and just didn't want to push my luck too much since I already had a large play on cruz.
small profit on the night so I can't complain too much but I made a lot of rookie betting errors.Comment -
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added a few plays
Rory Macdonald -230 x4
Alessio Sakara -170 x1
Miyata -130 x.75Comment -
6 units on Rory then? Im gonna wait for MacDonald by decision. I guess some are gone think he's gonna get Hathaway'd but I dont see that happening, he's on another level to Hathaway.Comment -
I don't blame anyone for not wanting to lay -250 against a guy with Pyle's skill set but I have a strong feeling Rory is going to make this look easier than most people think. I think we see Rory replicate a lot of what Ellenberger was able to accomplish.
I'm expecting Macdonalds strength and speed to be the difference wherever the fight takes place. You could make the case that Pyle is the better grappler and possesses the more technical boxing, but imo the latest movement on the line is just a direct reflection of a match-up between two completely different types of athletes.
His learning curve surprises me more and more each time out. I was blown away by some of the defensive adjustments he made in the Diaz fight. I honestly see this kid taking the belt in a few years.
If he had paced himself against Condit the same way he did against Diaz he probably wins that fight. I would even make him the favorite over Condit if they fought tomorrow.
Not taking anything away form Pyle though, the guy has been undervalued in all of his last three fights. His crafty guard and underrated boxing could definitely give Macdonald fits.
And yeah, we saw what Hathaway had in his last fight. He just hasn't progressed all that much since the Rick Story fight. I'd probably take Story in a rematch.Last edited by illmatick; 07-15-11, 08:09 PM.Comment -
adding
Keisuke Fujiwara -110 x2
parlay x.5
Fujiwara -115
Bruno Carvalho +165
Tokoro +130
parlay x.35
osawa -115
Imanari -160
Miyata -175
Mizuno +375 x.5Comment -
I've also bet heavily on Macdonald at -185 up to -212, but i think he's still got a lot of value at -250. Might add a little more on him by decision or straight up later. Really like the plays though, good luck.Comment -
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added a few more plays.....
Ronnie Mann +120 x.75
Maximo Blanco +175 x.35
Bobby Voelker +160 x.75
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +180 x.5
Chris Lytle -115 x1
Alexander Gustafsson -195 x1Comment -
How will voelker win this fight?Comment -
I guess same as the last fight!Comment -
I know, that was pretty obvious. its 1-1. But voelker wont be taken down consistently this time around as shown in the last fight. Bowling is more or less forced to trade with voelker. Voelker has granite chin, and good strikes. I think voelker wins this fight. i have a couple of units on him. He is overall the better fighter.Comment -
i just recently watched tape and got educated. first i didnt know. I placed a couple of units on voelker. I think its worth a play when the dog is the all around better fighter and have a clear path to victory.Comment
