My MMA and boxing PLAYS

[TheIceman]

I've been going back and forth on Pavlik fight , the closer it gets to the fight more I think Martinez can win . Pavlik got schooled by Hopkins and I feel like he might be overrated , yes he got power and he is solid but he didn't have any answer or plan B for the old man which is worrying . What if Martinez steals a lot of the early rounds and Pavlik doesn't adjust being forced to go for the KO ? I think I will rather skip this one but bookies are looking for Pavlik money . Paul Williams was over - 400 favorite against Martinez even with the adjusted line after Martinez's performance vs Paul Pavlik still should be over - 200 and I've been seeing - 165 for a while since the odds have opened up for this one . Doesn't mean much of course but this is a close call especially if Martinez comes with better cardio for the later rounds this time .

Henderson should KO Shields in less than 7 1/2 minutes I believe , horrible matchup for Shields . This could very well end like Maia vs Marquardt , actually Maia probably has better striking than Shields .

[TheIceman]

Glad I've skipped Strikeforce card , what a weird card with even more weird ending ...
It has looked like King Mo was done when you saw him at the end of the first gassed out but Mousasi did gas even more in the next round . All he had to do is move a little bit , he was just standing in front of King Mo with zero movement and waiting to get taken down .
Aoki better stay in Japan but Melendez is a beast and improving every time .
Henderson is a big fail , this fight should have been over in 2 minutes if not less , he gifted the fight to Shields . Props to Shields tho , awesome ground game , if only Maia and Aoki had such wrestling ...

Pavlik got tooled , like I've said Martinez was able to steal all early rounds winning 1 to 4 on my card and Pavlik's corner did a very bad job the whole night . Other than a questionable knockdown when Martinez was off balance Pavlik had 2 or 3 decent rounds tops . Martinez finally won a title , wel deserved . Cuts have affected Pavlik for sure but it's not like he was sliced open with a headbutt .



Weekend : 2-0 + 1.17 units
-------------------------------------------
Boxing YTD : 24-8 + 43.75 units

MMA YTD : 24-14 - 8.25 units

K-1 YTD : 1-1 - 1.91 units

Parlays YTD : 17-10 + 39.16 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 66-33 + 72.75 units

[ddream1]

mousasia exposed sat? he looked weak in every area. maybe not as good as we all thought. shield and melendaz are great prospects they have bright futures.

[TheIceman]

I don't know whats the deal with Mousasi , he has looked horrible and Mo just slightly better . Jon Jones would probably stomp them both I think .
I don't get how Shields can be so horrible standing after so many years in MMA , he is moving like in slow motion on his feet yet he is a snake on the ground .

[cky312]

I don't know whats the deal with Mousasi , he has looked horrible and Mo just slightly better . Jon Jones would probably stomp them both I think . I don't get how Shields can be so horrible standing after so many years in MMA , he is moving like in slow motion on his feet yet he is a snake on the ground .

I guess it's a 2 way street after all, there are plenty of ground wizards with significant experience in MMA that looks like a fridge standing up. There's also guys like Paul Daley or striking monsters that don't have a clue on the ground.

Wish I could say the same about avoiding the Strikeforce card though , thats two horrible events in a row for me.

[ufcmma36]

I guess it's a 2 way street after all, there are plenty of ground wizards with significant experience in MMA that looks like a fridge standing up. There's also guys like Paul Daley or striking monsters that don't have a clue on the ground.

Wish I could say the same about avoiding the Strikeforce card though , thats two horrible events in a row for me.

Me too bro.... I won two big parlays, now Ive lost two! But overall I feel like I couldnt have done anything too win. Hendo was my #1 play

[Vaughany]

I guess it's a 2 way street after all, there are plenty of ground wizards with significant experience in MMA that looks like a fridge standing up. There's also guys like Paul Daley or striking monsters that don't have a clue on the ground.

Wish I could say the same about avoiding the Strikeforce card though , thats two horrible events in a row for me.

Daley...not a clue on the ground??? Ur in for a big surprise fella.

[cky312]

Daley...not a clue on the ground??? Ur in for a big surprise fella.

BJJ-wise, or off his back. I know he's got a pretty devastating GnP, those hands of his are licensed to kill.

[jin2daj]

paulo thiago ftw!

[Vaughany]

BJJ-wise, or off his back. I know he's got a pretty devastating GnP, those hands of his are licensed to kill.

Well both! He definitely does have a 'clue' tho!

[TheIceman]

Hornbuckle is a beast and Pitbull is highly touted coming from Nog's team , both should win .

I think atleast one of the dogs will win in the other 2 fights tonight .

[ddream1]

blind tail bol to us ice!!

[TheIceman]

Hornbuckle won in 2:03 rd 1
Freire won in 2:01 rd 1

by submission


Both underdogs would have cashed at + 200 and + 170 but no bankroll to make risky underdog plays at the moment .



-------------------------------------------
Boxing YTD : 24-8 + 43.75 units

MMA YTD : 24-14 - 8.25 units

K-1 YTD : 1-1 - 1.91 units

Parlays YTD : 18-10 + 39.67 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 67-33 + 73.26 units




Fri 4/23 4:00PM

Super Bantamweight 12 rounds - Skydome, Coventry, West Midlands, United Kingdom - SKY- UK

Victor Terrazas vs Rendall Munroe

My pick is Rendall Munroe to win

Odds : - 240

Where : sportsbook

3.6 units to win 1.5 units

[TheIceman]

....

[TheIceman]

Sat 4/24 10:10PM

WEC 48 - Lightweight 5 rounds - Arco Arena, Sacramento, California - PPV


Ben Henderson vs Donald Cerrone

My pick is Donald Cerrone to win

Odds : - 120

Where : sportsbook

4.6 units to win 3.83 units

Insurance

Henderson wins by 5 round decision

+ 460 at 5dimes

1 unit to win 4.6 units

OUTCOME :

Donald Cerrone wins : + 2.83 units

Ben Henderson wins by 5 round decision : +/- 0

Ben Henderson wins inside distance : - 5.6 units

DRAW : - 1 unit



Very surprised to see - 245 odds against Henderson to win inside , thought those would be atleast - 400 . Cerrone has never been finished and he is tough as they come . Jamie Varner just gave away the fight to Henderson with one stupid mistake , I had him winning first 2 rounds and in the third as well . Henderson's wrestling wasn't good enough to take Varner down and his stand up had no answers either before Varner jumped head first into a standing guillotine . Cerrone has never gone for a takedown and I cant see him jumping into a guillotine , other than that Henderson's submission skills are fairly limited . Also unless he lands some brutal flush punch he isn't going to KO Cerrone . I think Henderson will make a mistake too many , he was lucky not to get finished in the first fight but this time I think he wont get out of the submission attempts . I could see him win this fight tho , by decision and making it look like their first bout , somewhat similar to King Mo vs Mousasi plus more submission attempts from the bottom fighter .

[TheIceman]

Sat 4/24 4:00PM

Super Middleweight 12 rounds - MCH Messecenter Herning, Herning, Denmark - Showtime

Mikkel Kessler vs Carl Froch

My pick is Not Froch inside distance

Odds : 1.33

Where : 5dimes

1 unit to win 0.33 units

[jin2daj]

im liking your cerrone pick

[TheIceman]

I see bwin added this one and odds are fairly good .


Sat 4/24 , in 45 minutes

Susi Kentikian vs Nadia Raoui

My pick is Fight to go full 10 rounds

Odds : - 200

Where : betandwin

1 unit to win 0.5 units


10 x 2 min rounds , Kentikian is aggressive but other chick seems to be fit . Plus Kentikian hasn't stopped anybody in a while .

[illmatick]

How do you have the Froch fight scored so far.. I missed the first few rounds

[TheIceman]

Going to cancel this one as I already have large enough wager on Cerrone vs Henderson fight .
Buying back , $100 to win $238 at 5dimes Henderson wins inside distance to cancel the parlay , other 2 have cashed .

[TheIceman]

How do you have the Froch fight scored so far.. I missed the first few rounds

Kessler has won but Froch was looking good after first 5 rounds , Kessler reached + 255 in-play after round 5 .

[TheIceman]

Well , that was over quick . Cerrone stuck his neck out there for taking just like Varner . I didn't see this coming at all , Cerrone way to weak .


Heavyweight 12 rounds - Citizens Business Bank Arena, Ontario, California - HBO

Chris Arreola vs Tomasz Adamek

My pick is Fight won't go distance

Odds : - 155

Where : 5dimes

3.1 unit to win 2 units

[TheIceman]

Quick one before start time , I hear Major guy is having issues with his head that kept him from fighting the last 10 monthes , not a good idea to step in with someone like Shlemenko .

Alexander Shlemenko over Matt Major , 2 units to win 0.72 units , - 280

[SweatySombrero]

o yeah he is the best of the rest

[TheIceman]

Will update stats after the card tonight .


Fri 4/30 11:45PM

Super Middleweight 10 rounds - UIC Pavilion, Chicago, Illinois - Showtime

Derek Edwards vs Marcus Johnson

My pick is Johnson wins inside distance

Odds : - 130

Where : 5dimes

260 to win 200


Edwards has record full of taxi drivers and some split decision wins in his home town against people with more losses than wins , fought only in the easiest states with cake competition .
Marcus is considered a prospect and I think he will win in impressive fashion on the televised card , maybe in around 6 . If Edwards is going to get tied off on I wouldn't be surprised to see the towel thrown in to avoid damage for the rest of his probably , not very promising career .



Fri 4/30 11:05PM

Super Middleweight 8 rounds - UIC Pavilion, Chicago, Illinois - Showtime

Osumanu Adama vs Don George

My pick is Don George to win

Odds : - 440

Where : 5dimes

100 to win 22



Haven't noticed this one prior , should have parlayed with the other play to get odds over + 100 on Johnson to stop Edwards . Small to have some action on this one , maybe good use for parlay with Floyd tomorrow .

[TheIceman]

George won a close decision , nothing special about this guy , thought he was better than that .
Half-assed showing by Johnson , his opponent wasn't willing to open up and risk to get hurt but Johnson was happy with a clear UD either way . Sort of like Vitali's fight against Kevin Johnson , an opponent who is happy with losing by decision instead of coming to win . When Johnson decided to move forward he was landing well but he didn't care bout winning inside the distance .

-------------------------------------------
Boxing YTD : 29-10 + 42.46 units

MMA YTD : 24-15 - 12.47 units

K-1 YTD : 1-1 - 1.91 units

Parlays YTD : 18-10 + 39.67 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 72-36 + 67.75 units




Sat 5/ 13:00PM

Cruiserweight 12 rounds - EWE-Arena, Oldenburg, Niedersachsen, Germany - ARD

Brian Minto vs Marco Huck

My pick is Fight not to go the distance

Odds : - 200

Where : ladbrokes

200 to win 100




Slightly better odds on Marco Huck by KO , TKO or DQ at - 175 but I with the way those two fight I could also see a cut stoppage from head clash going to technical decision at some point . Also it's not like Huck is the most gifted boxer out there , he can get hit as well so maybe outside chance for Minto to hurt him .

[TheIceman]

....

[westerner]

MMA is hard to cap, but IDK about that Cerrone pick, Bendo had too much of a mental edge coming in and it showed in the quick finish

[TheIceman]

Really off on Ponce fight , he didn't fight like he usually does at all .


Boxing YTD : 29-11 + 41.46 units

MMA YTD : 24-15 - 12.47 units

K-1 YTD : 1-1 - 1.91 units

Parlays YTD : 18-11 + 38.02 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 72-38 + 65.10 units





Thu 5/6 7:30PM

Bellator XVII - Catchweight 3 rounds - Citi Performing Arts Center, Wang Theatre, Boston, MA - FSN

Josh Neer vs Eddie Alvarez

My pick is Eddie Alvarez to win

Odds : - 250

Where : expekt

5 units to win 2 units



Been rewatching their fights whole day , I hope Alvarez and his team did as well . Other than armbar triangle and guillotine submissions from Neer Eddie should be just fine in this one . I think he wins around 80-85 % of the time .

Just rewatched the Danzig vs Neer fight ...

Danzig is about the same size of Eddie Alvarez tho Eddie is slightly taller than him . Danzig has solid boxing but not the power of Alvarez . Danzig was landing very well in the first round , rocked Neer a time but Neer just didnt respect his power and kept coming forward . Biggest problem was Neer pinning Danzig against the cage and landing uppercuts but I dont see him have much success pinning Alvarez against the cage who is clearly much better wrestler than Danzig .
Danzig almost got caught in a sub first round cuz his posture sux and he leaves his arms there for taking to get armbar triangled . In the second round once again he was on top and left his arms in front of Neer who locked up tigher armbar triangle this time and forced Danzig to tapout . There were bunch of seconds with Danzig just offering Neer to sub him , if he pulled out his arm this wouldnt of happened .
If Eddie doesn't get armbar triangled or maybe guillotine choked when going for a takedown he should be fine . About the only ways Neer wins the fight are those 2 subs . Neer's stand up is like poor man's Diaz , he doesnt have big 1 punch power .

Alvarez parlayed with Orlando Magic ML pays - 200 at 5dimes , def worth a try to lower the juice . Magic will dominate again tonight .

[TheIceman]

Fri 5/7 5:00PM

Lightweight 12 rounds - Kingsway Leisure Centre, Widnes, Cheshire, United Kingdom - SKY-UK

Gary Buckland vs John Murray

My pick is John Murray KO , TKO or DQ

Odds : 1.62

Where : boylesports

130 euro to win 80 euro ( will check exchange rate later )

[TheIceman]

Fri 5/7 10:00PM

Heavyweight 8 rounds - Isleta Casino & Resort, Albuquerque, New Mexico - ESPN2

Johnnie White vs Seth Mitchell

My pick is Under 7.5 rounds

Odds :- 175

Where : 5dimes

1.75 units to win 1 unit

[TheIceman]

Sat 5/8 7:30PM

UFC 113 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

John Salter vs Jason MacDonald

My pick is Jason MacDonald to win

Odds :- 150

Where : williamhill

300 euros to win 200 euros ( going to check exchange rate when updating stats )


Short arguments :


5 pro fights vs 37 pro fights and 11 years of MMA experience

MacDonald fighting in his home country

MacDonald with good reach and height advantage

Salter started training BJJ and striking just few years ago

MacDonald's recent losses :
Travis Lutter way superior and more experienced ground fighter than Salter who was able to lay on top of MacDonald whole fight .
Nate Quarry - very good power , pounded him out . I have my doubts Salter can pull it off like Quarry did .
Wilson Gouveia - when he was motivated he is a top guy and very well rounded .
Demian Maia - went almost whole distance with Maia on the ground and was able to get him in some dicy spots , no shame .
Yushin Okami by decision - Okami eats fighters like MacDonalds , no big deal .

All of his recent losses against higher level people with big experience that Salter doesn't have . I think MacDonald has advantage on the feet , Salter doesn't seem like a guy with big power or useful stand up , MacDonald should be able to use his reach and experience if it stays on the feet . If Salter takes MacDonald down I think this will look like Taylor's fight against Leites yesterday . Salter has never been in fights like that against a guy like MacDonald , it will be just a matter if time when MacDonald catches him in a triangle or sweeps and finishes him off from the top . Salter is very green and shouldn't be in the UFC , he has also looked nervous against Harris in his debut , hopefully there is some support for MacDonald early on the undercard today .
MacDonald is a late replacement but he is also in shape and fought around 2 weeks ago against a good ground fighter Matt Horwich who MacDonald defeated by decision .
I think MacDonald clearly wins this more than just 60 % of the time against such a green opponent who I think will fall into the traps set by the local vet on the ground . If it stays on the feet MacDonald should still be good enough to deal with Salter who from what I hear is more into ground fighting .
The only worry with MacDonald is that he can be hurt with ground and pound but I think this isn't the game of Salter . If there were prop odds on this bout I would put a small insurance wager on Salter by decision in case he can lay and pray but there are none up so I will have to go with MacDonald moneyline . He has something to prove here in his home country against an inexperienced opponent .



Tim Hague - 210 vs Joey Beltran + 200

- 110 opener on Hague was just insane , like Alvarez over Neer opened at - 120 as well on bookmaker . Got Hague in few parlays with other sports . Beltran would be cut after his debut if not for Gracie turning out to be a total can with zero cardio who didn't finish Beltran like he was supposed to .
Hague has huge size , reach and weight advantage . Beltran is a fat LHW guy with very limited skills . I think Hague is more well rounded and will either pound Beltran out or wear him down on the ground with his weight and take a decision .

Johny Hendricks - 370 vs TJ Grant + 350

No bet , Hendricks went to a decision with a similar opponent last time . I don't want to wait 15 + minutes and hope he isn't caught in a submission . Grant is a decent fighter but realistically he loses this by being stuck on the bottom or maybe even knocked out by Hendricks's wild but power punches .

Tom Lawlor - 500 vs Joe Doerksen + 465

Lawlor in the parlay from yesterday . Doerksen has looked like a finished fighter last few years against unknown opponents . He struggles against wrestlers and people who punch him in the face , Lawlor will do just that and sooner or later Joe gets stopped , maybe even by tapping to strikes like he did against Matt Hughes back in the day .


Yoshiyuki Yoshida - 255 vs Mike Guymon + 248

No bet , odds look about right maybe even slight value on Guymon who could grind out a decision here by being the better wrestler and stronger man . Realistically tho Yoshida finishes this by submission , Guymon hasn't faced anybody and UFC wants Yoshida to pick up a win after another brutal loss he suffered against A.Johnson . They threw a bone at him after the Koscheck loss and here is another one , he just has to pick it up and get it done .


Marcus Davis - 435 vs Jonathan Goulet + 385

Put it like that - if Marcus Davis loses he is done with MMA or atleast UFC . Goulet's chin is CHINA , knocked out in 11 , 12 and 33 seconds before this is a perfect opponent for Davis to look good against . Good parlay material as Goulet doesn't really have anything to offer here . + 950 on quickest KO of the night is also decent value . All it takes is one solid punch and lights go out for Goulet , if Davis lands early it's pretty much game over .



Sat 5/8 11:15PM

UFC 113 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada - PPV


Josh Koscheck vs Paul Daley

My pick is Josh Koscheck to win

Odds :- 225

Where : williamhill

225 euros to win 100 euros ( going to check exchange rate when updating stats )



I think Koscheck will shut up Daley here but do it in a smart way ... take him down , pound him a bit and then choke him out or maybe TKO . Daley never impressed me , Kampmann was able to stay on the feet totally rocked , IF Koscheck gets rocked before putting him down I think he can grab Daley kind of like Cain did against Kongo and still take him down taking the time to recover . Dustin H. and Kampmann don't have the best wrestling and were forced to stand with Daley . Dustin has very bad stand up and Kampmann also leaves openings , Marquardt nailed him in similar way not so long ago .
Koscheck is much more well rounded than Daley and I think it will show tonight .


Kimbo Slice + 100 vs Matt Mitrione - 101

No bet , I don't even know how legit this fight is not to speak about holes in both fighters's game . Mitrione might lay out Kimbo within a minute or maybe Kimbo has improved his takedowns to the point where he can take Mitrione down early and wear him out . I don't rate Kimbo at all but I think people are overrating Mitrione even more .
I will stick with my play Kimbo not to win in rd 1 for the parlay , otherwise I don't see much value here . How ''legit'' is this fight ? UFC needs Kimbo to win this , just like they did with Anderson Silva vs Forrest . This is an opponent Kimbo can def beat .

Patrick Cote + 104 vs Alan Belcher - 105

Tough fight to call , if Cote didn't come off such a layoff from a bad injury I would LOVE him at those odds against vulnerable opponent like Belcher . Belcher is either solid or very cold , he has more technical overall stand up but Cote's chin is great and he has got power , Belcher has crumbled before enough times for me to think Cote can hurt him . Looks like a fight to avoid , if Belcher comes hard early I can see Cote knocking him out , if it lasts a while I think Belcher could use his kicks and maybe win a decision staying away from Cote's punches .

Sam Stout - 190 vs Jeremy Stephens + 190

This has fight of the night written all over it and the odds took a big drop . Either this one or Cote vs Belcher got good chances to win the FOTN bonus . I think Stout will edge this by decision but I wouldn't be surprised if he stopped Stephens in the last round when Jeremy trys to finish strong and leaves openings .

[ddream1]

gl ice

[TheIceman]

That was brutal loss on MacDonald without a fight .


quick one 1 to win 1.02 on + 102 Cote