Dec 31 12:01 AM
DYNAMITE 2009 MMA SUPER FIGHTS
Hidehiko Yoshida vs Satoshi Ishii
My pick is Satoshi Ishii to win
Odds : 1.85 and 1.95
Where : Unibet and betandwin
$1000 to win $850 and $158 to win $150 , combined $1158 to win $1000
If Ishii's jaw isn't made of glass I think he will win this fight . To me only real advantage in this fight for Yoshida is fighting in MMA before with 16 bouts on his record . 5 of his 8 were against fighters who have close to no ground game like Mark Hunt or Tank Abbott . Yoshida is 1-4 in his last 5 , with the only win being over 48 year old kickboxing MMA fighter Maurice Smith who has been submitted around 10 times in his career even at the younger age than 40 + . There is no shame in losing to Mirko and Josh Barnett but the loss to James Thompson and the only 2009 fight loss to Sanae Kikuta make me question his motivation and the age being the factor at this point . He was - 350 favorite going into the fight with Kikuta but his performance was anything but an inspiring one . Missing a telegraphed highkick in the first part of the round 1 resulted in Yoshida laying on his back for the most of the round , showing no effort trying to sweep his opponent . There were around 60 seconds in the 2nd round where already winded Yoshida managed to get on top of Kikuta and land a little bit of ground and pound but nothing serious , he was later forced to give up the position due to Kikuta's several heelhook and kneebar attempts and ended up on the bottom once again . Later Kikuta flattered him out in the 3rd round and took Yoshida's back tho the old man was able to make it to a decision which surprisingly went just 2-1 Kikuta's way , Kikuta wasn't in any danger at any point of the fight .
There have never been so much hype for a debuting MMA fighter and there are a lot of questions which will be answered on the night of the fight . Unlike many olympics wrestlers or judokas who make their debut with close to no MMA training Ishii was able to train full time for a very long period of time with the best camps and trainers you can only ask for .
Not only will Ishii be the 17 younger man in the ring with sharper judo game at this point but he will also have around 25-30 pounds weight advantage over the veteran .
This fight depends on who is able to get the top position because Yoshida hasn't shown me anything that suggests he is able to sweep or submit a tough grappler and in this case physical conditions clearly favor the younger man who has just won olympics gold medal last year . Yoshida did tire rather quickly in his '' recent fights '' , the last one being already close to 1 year ago . The size and strength advantage will have the old man in a lot of trouble unless he lands a magical punch and Ishii's chin isn't as tough as his judo skills .
Yoshida is tough to finish but he is close to the retirement point , most likely outcome for me is Ishii controlling the fight with sweet judo throws from the clinch and being on top of Yoshida for the most part of the fight , tho I wouldn't be surprised if Yoshida gets finished in case he either fights in a GI which should be a big advantage for Ishii or he shows up in the same shape he did in the last 2 fights then Ishii has a shot at finishing the tired warrior in the late 2rd or 3rd round .
To me the only question is Ishii's chin because he is the younger , stronger and sharper version of Yoshida . If Ishii somehow gets knocked out it will be very early because he cant take a punch , later in the fight Yoshida should be too tired dealing with the around 30 lbs larger man . I don't see Yoshida submitting Ishii the way he did to most kickboxers he has faced in his MMA career minus Mirko Crocop . All 8 of Yoshida's wins have been by submission , he has never knocked out an opponent or won a decision .
Hiroyuki Takaya vs Michihiro Omigawa
Great entertainment but not the fight you would want to place your money on unless one of them is atleast + 150 underdog , considering I see - 115 both sides I will just sit back and enjoy a good battle . Omigawa has won very questionable decisions recently and this is the fight he can win by decision .
Hideo Tokoro vs Jong Man Kim
Tokoro is another fighter you wouldn't want to bet on or against , grab the popcorn and enjoy the fight .
Gary Goodridge vs Gegard Mousasi
Can't believe bookmaker has opened this at just - 575 , - 1000 something range is about right , Gary has around 0-5 % shot of winning this one .
- 1100 is good to parlay with something
Melvin Manhoef vs Kazuo Misaki
Very high varience fight , maybe slight value on Manhoef at + 160 but he has fought a lot recently and gave my money away during his fight with Filho ... No bet
Katsuyori Shibata vs Hiroshi Izumi
At those odds no bet , lean on Izumi because he seems to be the bigger and probably stronger man but his debut was the most stupid display of own skillset ever in MMA , to stand with a kickboxer who has serious power - not such a great idea if you haven't thrown a punch in your whole life .
Akihiro Gono vs Hayato Sakurai
Neither has impressed me recently and Sakurai seems to care more about other things than MMA and coming in shape for the fights . At + 200 might be a good idea to throw a bit on Gono tho this fight seems like a lottery , whoever wants it more will win .
Yosuke Nishijima vs Ray Sefo
Neither one is really relevant and there is no real value here betting on Sefo , if anything it could be worth a try to place a small bet on the former japanese boxer at those long odds of + 325 .
Shinya Aoki vs Mizuto Hirota
Really depends what period of time Hirota can keep this fight in standing position . Hirota has to knock Aoki out because he will not win a decision even if he stays on top and shakes off Aoki's submission attempts with the judging system being different than in the US Aoki would be too aggressive from any position on the ground to lose a decision . A single shot on the ground can change the outcome of the fight tho , Hirota is powerful enough to repeat what Hansen and Sakurai did to Aoki . Aoki would have to be atleast - 250 to consider a play , Kawajiri at the same odds seems like a safer bet to me because he is by far a more durable fighter .
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs Masanori Kanehara
Not really interested in touching Yamamoto at - 425 odds until he proves that he is back after his long injury break . So far it hasn't been great for him with 0:2 record , the last one being a nasty knockout loss in K-1 where he was - 900 favorite . Kanehara however doesn't really pose any threat to Kid Yamamoto , he is well rounded but not great anywhere and this isn't enough to beat someone of Kid's caliber . Yamamoto most likely wins rather easily but I will skip this one .
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Kawajiri vs Yokota fight could turn out like Yokota's fight against Kitaoka just worse because Kawajiri to his strong wrestling has better top control than Kitaoka who was able to take Yokota down 10 times in 15 minutes . Unless Yokota lands something really big and knocks Kawajiri out I don't see a win for him , Kawajiri has strong chin and can take a lot of punishment . Wrestling will be big factor in this one as Yokota will not be able to land a lot in stand up or stuff Kawajiri's takedowns . Decision is the most likely outcome but I wouldn't be surprised if Kawajiri knocked him out or stopped with ground and pound , Yokota is very stiff with his head while striking and this could be just a matter of time when Kawajiri connects big.
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Have to take Masato in his retirement fight despite the 0:2 head to head .
Tournament format didn't favor Masato when they've fought last time , Masato took a lot of damage to his legs on the night against Pramuk in 3 rounds then had another tough opponent in Arthur Kyshenko . He won the first round without a lot of trouble against Souwer I believe tho it has been a while since I've watched the whole fight . It was obvious at this point tho that Masato is in big pain and Souwer kept peppering his legs to the point where Masato just couldn't stand anymore and had to retire .
Skillwise overall to me Masato has the edge , Souwer has good kicks and Remy Bonjasky like defense but he isn't aggressive enough . It's a 5 round fight with an extra round if needed , I don't see Souwer taking 3 clear rounds from Masato in his retirement fight . Souwer got absolutely destroyed by Petrosyan in the MAX finals recently and arguably lost to Pramuk in the semis tho the judges decided to add the extra round and give the fight to Souwer .
If needed I wouldn't be surprised the judges ''gave'' the fight to Masato tho I think he will finally get a win over the tough dutchman .
Initially I wanted to make a single bet on Masato at - 105/1.95 but bookie has declined pretty much the whole amount but accepted it in a parlay after dropping the odds to 1.75 . I also have $500 bet pending on Kampmann at - 170 so I might think of buying something back closer to the UFC event in case Masato wins tomorrow .
Dec 31 3:00AM
Souwer vs Masato - Heavyweights - K-1 Rules Apply - Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
Andy Souwer vs Masato
My pick is Masato to win
Odds : 1.95
Where : expekt
$100 to win $95
Dec 31 3:00 AM
Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
Ikuhisa Minowa vs Rameau Sokoudjou and Alistair Overeem vs Kazuyuki Fujita
My pick is Rameau Sokoudjou and Alistair Overeem to win
Odds : 1.72 and 1.10
Where : betandwin
Combined odds : 1.89
$442 to win $395
Dec 31 3:00 AM
Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
Ikuhisa Minowa vs Rameau Sokoudjou
My pick is Rameau Sokoudjou to win
Odds : 1.60
Where : betandwin
$143 to win $85
Again not so much interest in betting on Overeem but they let one place larger wagers in parlays . Odds on Sokoudjou are absolutely off here compared to - 320 at other bookies .
Sokoudjou is a legit fighter and Minowa only beats freak show opponents who are either 7' or 350 + lbs , Sokoudjou doesn't qualify in neither category . At those odds I don't have to think twice who to bet on , tho at - 300 I might have considered skipping it .
Sokoudjou talks big so hopefully he can back it up in the ring . I would surprised if he doesn't finish Minowa within 90 seconds to be honest . A lot of factors going Sokoudjou's way here , first of all he doesn't have to cut weight like he did in the US which has caused problems with the cardio , they don't test just in case he is on something . Minowa himself doesn't have the greatest cardio so this shouldn't be an issue at all in case fight doesn't end early somehow . To me this is an easy decision ... Minowa always takes advantage of his immobile opponents to grab the leg , Sokoudjou is just too strong to fall for this one . Minowa doesn't have the best takedowns and fresh Sokoudjou isn't getting taken down by him . If I was making Sokoudjou's gameplan it would be very simple - don't kick a lot early not to end up on the bottom position somehow in a scramble and rush Minowa with the fists , Minowa just doesn't have the power to make Sokoudjou think twice about bullying him . Minowa can try to pull guard but I don't think it will get him far , Sokoudjou might just jump on him and ground and pound him to a stoppage . To me this one looks like Masvidal vs Kitaoka type fight , one fighter is way too one-dimensional tho atleast Kitaoka can beat legit opponents unlike the man they call Minowaman . Sokoudjou will pound Minowa out unless he was paid off to lose against local warrior , hopefully it's a legit fight then I like my chances .
DYNAMITE 2009 MMA SUPER FIGHTS
Hidehiko Yoshida vs Satoshi Ishii
My pick is Satoshi Ishii to win
Odds : 1.85 and 1.95
Where : Unibet and betandwin
$1000 to win $850 and $158 to win $150 , combined $1158 to win $1000
If Ishii's jaw isn't made of glass I think he will win this fight . To me only real advantage in this fight for Yoshida is fighting in MMA before with 16 bouts on his record . 5 of his 8 were against fighters who have close to no ground game like Mark Hunt or Tank Abbott . Yoshida is 1-4 in his last 5 , with the only win being over 48 year old kickboxing MMA fighter Maurice Smith who has been submitted around 10 times in his career even at the younger age than 40 + . There is no shame in losing to Mirko and Josh Barnett but the loss to James Thompson and the only 2009 fight loss to Sanae Kikuta make me question his motivation and the age being the factor at this point . He was - 350 favorite going into the fight with Kikuta but his performance was anything but an inspiring one . Missing a telegraphed highkick in the first part of the round 1 resulted in Yoshida laying on his back for the most of the round , showing no effort trying to sweep his opponent . There were around 60 seconds in the 2nd round where already winded Yoshida managed to get on top of Kikuta and land a little bit of ground and pound but nothing serious , he was later forced to give up the position due to Kikuta's several heelhook and kneebar attempts and ended up on the bottom once again . Later Kikuta flattered him out in the 3rd round and took Yoshida's back tho the old man was able to make it to a decision which surprisingly went just 2-1 Kikuta's way , Kikuta wasn't in any danger at any point of the fight .
There have never been so much hype for a debuting MMA fighter and there are a lot of questions which will be answered on the night of the fight . Unlike many olympics wrestlers or judokas who make their debut with close to no MMA training Ishii was able to train full time for a very long period of time with the best camps and trainers you can only ask for .
Not only will Ishii be the 17 younger man in the ring with sharper judo game at this point but he will also have around 25-30 pounds weight advantage over the veteran .
This fight depends on who is able to get the top position because Yoshida hasn't shown me anything that suggests he is able to sweep or submit a tough grappler and in this case physical conditions clearly favor the younger man who has just won olympics gold medal last year . Yoshida did tire rather quickly in his '' recent fights '' , the last one being already close to 1 year ago . The size and strength advantage will have the old man in a lot of trouble unless he lands a magical punch and Ishii's chin isn't as tough as his judo skills .
Yoshida is tough to finish but he is close to the retirement point , most likely outcome for me is Ishii controlling the fight with sweet judo throws from the clinch and being on top of Yoshida for the most part of the fight , tho I wouldn't be surprised if Yoshida gets finished in case he either fights in a GI which should be a big advantage for Ishii or he shows up in the same shape he did in the last 2 fights then Ishii has a shot at finishing the tired warrior in the late 2rd or 3rd round .
To me the only question is Ishii's chin because he is the younger , stronger and sharper version of Yoshida . If Ishii somehow gets knocked out it will be very early because he cant take a punch , later in the fight Yoshida should be too tired dealing with the around 30 lbs larger man . I don't see Yoshida submitting Ishii the way he did to most kickboxers he has faced in his MMA career minus Mirko Crocop . All 8 of Yoshida's wins have been by submission , he has never knocked out an opponent or won a decision .
Hiroyuki Takaya vs Michihiro Omigawa
Great entertainment but not the fight you would want to place your money on unless one of them is atleast + 150 underdog , considering I see - 115 both sides I will just sit back and enjoy a good battle . Omigawa has won very questionable decisions recently and this is the fight he can win by decision .
Hideo Tokoro vs Jong Man Kim
Tokoro is another fighter you wouldn't want to bet on or against , grab the popcorn and enjoy the fight .
Gary Goodridge vs Gegard Mousasi
Can't believe bookmaker has opened this at just - 575 , - 1000 something range is about right , Gary has around 0-5 % shot of winning this one .
- 1100 is good to parlay with something
Melvin Manhoef vs Kazuo Misaki
Very high varience fight , maybe slight value on Manhoef at + 160 but he has fought a lot recently and gave my money away during his fight with Filho ... No bet
Katsuyori Shibata vs Hiroshi Izumi
At those odds no bet , lean on Izumi because he seems to be the bigger and probably stronger man but his debut was the most stupid display of own skillset ever in MMA , to stand with a kickboxer who has serious power - not such a great idea if you haven't thrown a punch in your whole life .
Akihiro Gono vs Hayato Sakurai
Neither has impressed me recently and Sakurai seems to care more about other things than MMA and coming in shape for the fights . At + 200 might be a good idea to throw a bit on Gono tho this fight seems like a lottery , whoever wants it more will win .
Yosuke Nishijima vs Ray Sefo
Neither one is really relevant and there is no real value here betting on Sefo , if anything it could be worth a try to place a small bet on the former japanese boxer at those long odds of + 325 .
Shinya Aoki vs Mizuto Hirota
Really depends what period of time Hirota can keep this fight in standing position . Hirota has to knock Aoki out because he will not win a decision even if he stays on top and shakes off Aoki's submission attempts with the judging system being different than in the US Aoki would be too aggressive from any position on the ground to lose a decision . A single shot on the ground can change the outcome of the fight tho , Hirota is powerful enough to repeat what Hansen and Sakurai did to Aoki . Aoki would have to be atleast - 250 to consider a play , Kawajiri at the same odds seems like a safer bet to me because he is by far a more durable fighter .
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs Masanori Kanehara
Not really interested in touching Yamamoto at - 425 odds until he proves that he is back after his long injury break . So far it hasn't been great for him with 0:2 record , the last one being a nasty knockout loss in K-1 where he was - 900 favorite . Kanehara however doesn't really pose any threat to Kid Yamamoto , he is well rounded but not great anywhere and this isn't enough to beat someone of Kid's caliber . Yamamoto most likely wins rather easily but I will skip this one .
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Kawajiri vs Yokota fight could turn out like Yokota's fight against Kitaoka just worse because Kawajiri to his strong wrestling has better top control than Kitaoka who was able to take Yokota down 10 times in 15 minutes . Unless Yokota lands something really big and knocks Kawajiri out I don't see a win for him , Kawajiri has strong chin and can take a lot of punishment . Wrestling will be big factor in this one as Yokota will not be able to land a lot in stand up or stuff Kawajiri's takedowns . Decision is the most likely outcome but I wouldn't be surprised if Kawajiri knocked him out or stopped with ground and pound , Yokota is very stiff with his head while striking and this could be just a matter of time when Kawajiri connects big.
Parlay2.jpg
Have to take Masato in his retirement fight despite the 0:2 head to head .
Tournament format didn't favor Masato when they've fought last time , Masato took a lot of damage to his legs on the night against Pramuk in 3 rounds then had another tough opponent in Arthur Kyshenko . He won the first round without a lot of trouble against Souwer I believe tho it has been a while since I've watched the whole fight . It was obvious at this point tho that Masato is in big pain and Souwer kept peppering his legs to the point where Masato just couldn't stand anymore and had to retire .
Skillwise overall to me Masato has the edge , Souwer has good kicks and Remy Bonjasky like defense but he isn't aggressive enough . It's a 5 round fight with an extra round if needed , I don't see Souwer taking 3 clear rounds from Masato in his retirement fight . Souwer got absolutely destroyed by Petrosyan in the MAX finals recently and arguably lost to Pramuk in the semis tho the judges decided to add the extra round and give the fight to Souwer .
If needed I wouldn't be surprised the judges ''gave'' the fight to Masato tho I think he will finally get a win over the tough dutchman .
Initially I wanted to make a single bet on Masato at - 105/1.95 but bookie has declined pretty much the whole amount but accepted it in a parlay after dropping the odds to 1.75 . I also have $500 bet pending on Kampmann at - 170 so I might think of buying something back closer to the UFC event in case Masato wins tomorrow .
Dec 31 3:00AM
Souwer vs Masato - Heavyweights - K-1 Rules Apply - Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
Andy Souwer vs Masato
My pick is Masato to win
Odds : 1.95
Where : expekt
$100 to win $95
Dec 31 3:00 AM
Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
Ikuhisa Minowa vs Rameau Sokoudjou and Alistair Overeem vs Kazuyuki Fujita
My pick is Rameau Sokoudjou and Alistair Overeem to win
Odds : 1.72 and 1.10
Where : betandwin
Combined odds : 1.89
$442 to win $395
Dec 31 3:00 AM
Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
Ikuhisa Minowa vs Rameau Sokoudjou
My pick is Rameau Sokoudjou to win
Odds : 1.60
Where : betandwin
$143 to win $85
Again not so much interest in betting on Overeem but they let one place larger wagers in parlays . Odds on Sokoudjou are absolutely off here compared to - 320 at other bookies .
Sokoudjou is a legit fighter and Minowa only beats freak show opponents who are either 7' or 350 + lbs , Sokoudjou doesn't qualify in neither category . At those odds I don't have to think twice who to bet on , tho at - 300 I might have considered skipping it .
Sokoudjou talks big so hopefully he can back it up in the ring . I would surprised if he doesn't finish Minowa within 90 seconds to be honest . A lot of factors going Sokoudjou's way here , first of all he doesn't have to cut weight like he did in the US which has caused problems with the cardio , they don't test just in case he is on something . Minowa himself doesn't have the greatest cardio so this shouldn't be an issue at all in case fight doesn't end early somehow . To me this is an easy decision ... Minowa always takes advantage of his immobile opponents to grab the leg , Sokoudjou is just too strong to fall for this one . Minowa doesn't have the best takedowns and fresh Sokoudjou isn't getting taken down by him . If I was making Sokoudjou's gameplan it would be very simple - don't kick a lot early not to end up on the bottom position somehow in a scramble and rush Minowa with the fists , Minowa just doesn't have the power to make Sokoudjou think twice about bullying him . Minowa can try to pull guard but I don't think it will get him far , Sokoudjou might just jump on him and ground and pound him to a stoppage . To me this one looks like Masvidal vs Kitaoka type fight , one fighter is way too one-dimensional tho atleast Kitaoka can beat legit opponents unlike the man they call Minowaman . Sokoudjou will pound Minowa out unless he was paid off to lose against local warrior , hopefully it's a legit fight then I like my chances .
but ill take it.
