You're on fire. Keep it up man!
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nice run last night. gotta start tailing you on the boxing plays
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niceComment -
nice job man! +59 on boxing YTD is no joke!Comment -
Sportsbook just opened Kongo at - 225 over Paul Buentello , this is heading into - 400 range IMO .
Don't know if it will get higher or not , not going to let it ride , learned the lesson first week of the year with Ishii over Yoshida .
Result :
Cheick Kongo wins : + $88.89
Paul Buentello wins : +/- 0Comment -
like the insurance play. buentello definitely has some value at that line, might be able to squeeze out a decision upset.Comment -
Hey Ice,
what is your play for the upcoming Klitschko vs. Chambers fight?
Just can't see how Wladimir will lose this and tend taking a shot at the moneyline. Though I know only losers take big juice...
regards
ChrisComment -
Wladimir is not the person you want to bet on straight up at those odds with his chin . I don't see Chambers having any real weapons to hurt Klitschko with but still - 1000 on 5dimes doesn't seem backable .Comment -
Kongo all the way.Comment -
Going to try a parlay today , hopefully wake up in time to watch those .Comment -
Parlay lost , I am not sure what happened but Jerez vs Bundu ended after the 5th round with technical decision so I would guess it was an accidental headbutt and it went to scorecards . Sucks cuz I didn't see either getting knocked out in this one , Jerez went to distance with Lucas Martin Matthysse and Saul Alvarez recently and Bundu has 6 stoppage wins on his record out of 20 bouts . Should have parlayed Bundu straight moneyline but at - 800 it didn't look too great with on - 330 available on over .
Fri 3/19 10:30PM
Light Middleweight 12 rounds - Choctaw Gaming Center, Durant, Oklahoma - ESPN2
Sechew Powell vs Deandre Latimore
My pick is Deandre Latimore points handicap - 8
Odds : - 115
Where : 5dimes
$287 to win $250
I hope there wont be any blind judges if this goes to a decision . Latimore always aggressive , throwing the more meaningful punches versus the more conservative style of Powell who sometimes takes rounds off and fights lazy . Powell tested positive for weed after their first fight but I don't think it was just weed that wobbled and slowed down Powell . Latimore should wear down Powell and maybe stop him in the last 3 or 4 rounds . I think Latimore has bigger things ahead of him while Powell could be be at his limit . Only inexperience of Latimore and some help from the judges allowed Cory Spinks to walk away as the split decision victor from his bout with Latimore who had Spinks down and hurt in the first round but wasn't able to close out the show . Also an interesting fact that Powell has never been past 10th round while Latimore went 12 with Spinks , Latimore slowed down in the second half of the fight but Spinks is a very crafty veteran and Latimore has spent a lot of energy in the first rounds trying to blow away Spinks . In the first rounds it could be a tough battle with both men spending a lot of energy but in the 2nd half of the fight I think Latimore's style will prevail , he will line up Powell and press him against the ropes landing some power shots to both body and head of Powell . Latimore seemed to be the stronger man and I think it could be a deciding factor with Latimore being able to control Powell in close distance and wear him down at the ropes .
8 points is not a really big handicap considering KO or TKO counts as a winner , I could see Powell getting dropped in some rounds or taking a knee giving a great opportunity to have a 10-8 rounds on 3 cards .
And a parlay , Ibarra fighting out of his hometown against nicaraguan who has zero notable wins on his record , in fact Zamora has never won a fight outside of his home country and one win in El Salvador over a fighter who ended his career with 1 win 8 losses record . This will be the 4th time for Zamora to box in Mexico , so far he is 0-3 and all 3 losses by TKO in the 2nd , 6th and 8th rounds .
His last loss was 5 monthes ago to Hernan Marquez by TKO in the 6th . Now just a week ago I've watched live on TV Hernan Marquez get outclassed and lose his perfect 27-0 record by Richie Mepranum. Ibarra might not be as good as either of these guys but I have a feeling that the visitor will be once again overmatched by much higher level of boxing in Mexico compared to the level of his local opponents with losing records in Nicaragua .Comment -
Sun 3/21 6:00PM
UFC Live - Lightweight 3 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado
Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty
My pick is Clay Guida to win
Odds : 1.30
Where : unibet
$1000 to win $300
Best odds around at the moment , Guida cant afford to lose this and I don't think he will . Gugerty is alright but Guida's takedowns , pace and ground and pound will be too much for him . He hasn't finished anybody in ages but I think he has a good chance of getting a stoppage win in this one .
I see 5 dimes got this at - 420 so I would parlay it with either Sakara vs Irvin won't go 3 round distance - 505 or Gonzaga vs Junior Dos Santos won't go 3 round distance - 650 to get much better odds . I think neither will last more than 7.5 minutes . Not adding anything for UFC card , gotta wait for Kongo vs Buentello fight to finish to get money off it . Once they pay out on this one I am going to make plays on DREAM , off to bed now .Comment -
good luck man....
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Sun 3/21 06:05 PM PST
UFC Live - Middleweight 3 rounds - 1STBANK Center - Broomfield, Colorado - Versus
James Irvin vs Alessio Sakara
My pick is UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS
Odds : - 117
Where : pinnaclesports
$351 to win $300
Love this one , last play for Versus card , hopefully Kongo , Guida and this one cash .
I can't see this fight last more than 5 minutes to be honest , either one will get stopped .Comment -
Mon 3/22 3:00AM
Dream 13 - - Yokohama Arena, Yokohama, Japan - HDNET
Andrews Nakahara vs Ryo Chonan
My pick is Andrews Nakahara to win
Odds : - 135
Where : sportsbook
$405 to win $300
Mon 3/22 3:00AM
Dream 13 - - Yokohama Arena, Yokohama, Japan - HDNET
Yoshiro Maeda vs Cole Escovedo
My pick is Yoshiro Maeda to win
Odds : - 205
Where : sportsbook
$410 to win $200Comment -
LOSS - 3.59 units
Lindsay has won without any trouble .
Ibarra has won by TKO in the 4th round .
Bundu/Jerez fight went to a technical decision after the 5th round , Jerez has suffered a deep cut from an accidental headbutt in the 2nd round but decided to give it a go . Would be a no contest if the fight got stopped before the 5th round
Cheick Kongo WIN + 0.88 units
Pretty much a steal at - 225 opening odds . Buentello could only win by a DQ from those knees by Kongo .
Deandre Latimore LOSS and LOSS - 6.87 units combined
Thought he was doing well in the first 4 rounds but then he just moved forward like a robot from 5th-10th rounds eating jabs from Powell for dinner . Latimore woke up in the last 2 rounds , especially the last one was fairly good for him . If he fought like that all the way I am not sure Powell could last to the final bell . One judge has scored the fight as a draw , other two for Powell , fair win for him , Latimore took 7 rounds off for no reason .
Clay Guida WIN + 3 units
Sakara vs Irvin under 1.5 rounds WIN + 3 units
Andrews Nakahara LOSS - 4.05 units
Yoshiro Maeda LOSS - 4.10 units
LOSS - 2 units
Weekend : 3-6 - 13.73 units
-------------------------------------------
Boxing YTD : 21-4 + 56.19 units
MMA YTD : 19-13 - 18.23 units
K-1 YTD : 1-0 + 0.95 units
Parlays YTD : 12-6 + 37.51 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 53-23 +76.42 units
Latimore and Maeda killed me this weekend , not going to make more than 1 play on a fight anymore . Latimore lost both on handicap and in parlay , Maeda single play loss and for parlay as well . 2 wrong calls end up in 4 losses .Comment -
Fri 3/26 12:00PM
Minimumweight 12 rounds - East London, Eastern Cape, South Africa
Raul Garcia vs Nkosinathi Joyi
My pick is Nkosinathi Joyi to win
Odds : - 240
Where : sportsbook
$480 to win $200
Pissed I've missed the below - 200 opener but I believe Joyi is higher class boxer in this one and also has most of the other deciding factors in his favor : home advantage is very big here , with the fight being in South Africa and Garcia travelling all the way from Mexico also being his first fight outside of his home country . Joyi will have 4 inch advantage over his opponent which can also be the deciding factor with two well skilled boxers , there is another somewhat similar one tomorrow with Funeka against Guzman .
There is not a lot of footage on these guys but there is something to look at. They have shared two same opponents but the outcome wasn't necessarily the same :
Opponent 1 ~ Sammy Gutierrez
Joyi June 27th, 2008 stopped Sammy in the 7th
Garcia III August 22nd, 2009 MD12 116-112 | 115-113 | 114-114
Garcia II SD12 June 14th, 2008 ~ 116-115 | 115-114 | 112-117
Garcia I D12 June 2nd, 2006 ~ scores not available through boxrec
Garcia ought Sammy Gutierrez 3 times , one draw , one split decision win and one majority decision win .
Opponent 2 ~ Florante Condes ~
Joyi UD12 120-107 | 119-108 | 120-107
Garcia SD12 118-110 | 112-115 | 115-112
Joyi absolutely outclassed Condes as high as 12-0 rounds on two scorecards with one round being 10-8 while Garcia just one year earlier has barely eked out a split decision win over him .
Raul Garcia's record stands at 27 wins - 0 losses and - 1 draw but with a little bit less luck Raul Garcia could have up to 4 losses by now while Joyi is sitting at 20-0 and having won all of his fights in dominating fashion , winning by 120-104 decision over durable opponents which is by far the biggest margin I've ever seen .
I think home advantage + reach will seal the deal here and Joyi seems to be the more skilled boxer as well . Like I've said both haven't lost yet but Garcia's record looks very shaky with those split decision wins , majority and a draw against opponents Joyi has dominated .
Looking for a good start of the day before the UK card . For people who want to bet on this one at 5dimes who have Joyi at - 270 I would suggest to parlay him with either Anthony Small - 390 or Andre Galvao - 360 ( Strikeforce card night ) .
Fri 3/26 2:00PM
Heavyweight 8 rounds - Helsinki, Finland
Gbenga Oloukun vs Robert Helenius
My pick is Fight not to go the distance
Odds : - 200
Where : ladbrokes
$500 to win $250
Robert Helenius is - 1350 on 5dimes but they don't offer over/under on this one and I am not surprised at all . Even tho this is a 8 round bout I don't see Oloukun last all the way , this is a showcase fight for Helenius in his home country after several bouts in Germany . Oloukun has good chin like most boxers coming from Africa but I've seen him discouraged and quit against the soft punching Manuel Charr around 11 monthes ago in Germany . Oloukun's corner was yelling at him between the breaks and asking why he doesn't want to win the fight but the answer is he didn't have the tools to deal with Charr who I don't rate as high as Helenius . In the 7th round Charr threw a punch to the head and then a single punch to the body , Oloukun took a knee after 1-2 seconds delayed reaction and just decided to let himself get counted out , he slowly got up at 9 and a half just to pretend he is trying to stay in the fight . I think that wasn't just the punch that hurt him as much as he was trying to find an easy way out , he was slowing down and Charr tried to bully him landing more and more punches .
I was impressed with Helenius against Lamon Brewster , Helenius dropped him in the 2nd round and was all over him pretty much all the way before TKO'ing him in the 8th .
I think Oloukun has good chin but the amount of punches he is going to eat while not finding a way to get inside the almost 6 inches taller man will frustrate him . Either referee or his corner might stop the fight and this could happen at almost any point . I don't see Oloukun being anything special other than tough . He seemed to slow down after the first half of the 8 round bout with Charr and I don't see him doing any better against '' The Nordic Nightmare '' . Helenius will connect clean and connect a lot , I don't think referee will want to see it all the way to the final bell .Comment -
do you have any insight of the Takalani Ndlovu vs Steve Molitor on Saturday by any chance?....Comment -
Haven't looked at tomorrow's card yet Takalani could be worth a dollar or two at over + 300 odds tho I will have to look closer later .
Small was talking big at the weigh ins , I hope he backs his shit up . I was thinking I am looking at a rapper and not a boxer the way he carried himself , talking smack not only to his opponent but also another guy fighting on the card today .
Branco has only been stopped once by Cotto , no shame in this . 47.83 % KO wins in 46 bouts .
Hatton has 34.09 % KO wins in 44 bouts , has also only been stopped once .
This has decision written all over it unless either gets cut badly .Comment -
loving garay and alfaro tomorrow. alfaro has all the tools to pull this off, i think there is value in the current +145 line.Comment -
Holy S ... Small lost majority decision . Fight was about to get stopped in the 5th round on a cut but the referee never called the doctor for the 2nd time to wave it off . Small lost like last 5 rounds and the fight .
Was trading a bit on Betfair during the fight so ended up losing less than the whole amount on the bet but going to count it as 5 units loss . At one point in the 6th round odds were + 5000 against Small win , I wish I would put a tenner on it .
Atleast I wasn't the only one who didn't like the scoring
Small doesn't do himself any favor acting like a douchebag either .
Fri 3/26 11:45PM
Strikeforce VII - Welterweight 3 rounds - Save Mart Center, Fresno, California - Showtime
Luke Stewart vs Andre Galvao
My pick is Andre Galvao to win
Odds : - 320
Where : thegreek
$800 to win $250
Fri 3/26 11:45PM
Strikeforce VII - Welterweight 3 rounds - Save Mart Center, Fresno, California - Showtime
Lolohea Mahe vs Lavar Johnson
My pick is Lavar Johnson to win
Odds : - 150
Where : sportsbook
$450 to win $300
Sat 3/27 1:00AM
Flyweight 12 rounds - Ariake Colosseum, Tokyo, Japan
Pongsaklek Wonjongkam vs Koki Kameda
My pick is Koki Kameda to win
Odds : - 240 and - 245
Where : sportsbook and 5dimes
$480 to win $200 and $245 to win $100
Tried to parlay Kameda with Galvao on 5 dimes but getting some weird limits .Comment -
interesting call on the galvao fight. i thought stewart won but i was sure glad to cash the ticket on galvao. congrats iceComment -
If I didn't have the wager I would say it's 29-28 either way but of course glad it went my way with the earlier majority decision going against me in boxing today . Galvao got reversed very easily , didn't have a lot of trouble getting like 5 or 6 takedowns but surprised how loose he was on top .Comment -
Will the fight go the full 3 rounds? Pick is NO
Odds on it + 100 , had to add Gambao and GSP at - 2000 and - 700 or something like that . Single wager limit on Diaz vs Markham not to go the full 3 rounds is 100 but in parlays a little higher . Bet in euros , will have to check the exchange rate .
Pretty interesting facts :
Markham has never gone to a decision in 21 fights and Nate has never been finished by strikes in 16 bouts with the only loss inside the distance being armbar submission to Hermes Franca . I think it's almost pretty safe to say Markham is either going to get 5000 jabs in his face and fall down sooner or later ala Nick Diaz vs Zaromskis . There is more than a good chance of Nate submitting Markham as well , he overcommits on everything he does and sooner or later Nate will take this to the ground and Markham wont have the answers . Plus Markham hasn't fought in 13 monthes since this 1 minute KO loss to Hardy , missing weight as well . I don't think his cardio will hold up for more than one round to be honest with his style and the pace Diaz brothers set with the added factors of missing weight by so much especially coming from such a long layoff .
First one at betandwin and 5 dimes
Abraham will only start punching at the 6 round mark , don't see a stoppage so quick .
GSP should have his way with Hardy once on the ground , TKO or submission .
Carwin vs Mir shouldn't last more than 5 minutes let alone 20 .
Sat 3/27 7:15PM
UFC 111 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Rousimar Palhares (BRA) vs Tomasz Drwal (POL)
Will the fight go the full 3 rounds?
My pick is NO
Odds : 1.47
Where : betandwin$200 to win $94
Should be over pretty quick for Palhares by submission or Drwal TKO .
Sat 3/27 1:00PM
Heavyweight 12 rounds - Sporthalle, Alsterdorf, Hamburg, Germany
Steffen Kretschmann (GER) vs Dennis Bakhtov (RUS)
Over how many rounds will the bout go?
My pick is LESS THAN 10 ROUNDS
Odds : 1.60
Where : betandwin$300 to win $180
A lot of close fights today in both boxing and MMA with some unknown factors . Looks like Guzman isn't forced to lose the weight which is insane having him fight with such a weight advantage . Now I am not sure about anything in this one .
Does Morales have anything left or will this be Castillo like performance who retired in his bout on Pacquiao vs Clottey undercard ...
Abraham vs Dirrell should be interesting one , too close to call a winner cuz both have a clear path to victory , actually Dirrell for sure could spoil AA's undefeated record if he can stick with the gameplan all the way but it's a tough task against someone with the power of Abraham .
Going to look at the rest of the UFC card when I wake up . Got a weird feeling Almeida will gas and lose the fight but got to think about it a lil but more .Comment -
i keep forgetting almeida dropped down to WW. not sure how he deals with cardio after a cut like that. maybe brown is worth the look, i already posted and wagered almeida.Comment -
Last one for today , really liking it .Comment -
Wed 3/31 8:00PM
UFC Fight Night 21 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Bojangles Coliseum - Charlotte, North Carolina - Spike
Roy Nelson vs Stefan Struve
R.Nelson wins by TKO/KO
My pick is ANY OTHER RESULT
Odds : - 118
$118 to win $100
I don't see Nelson doing what he did to Schaub here . To me the most likely result is Nelson by decision but I wouldn't be surprised if he won by a kimura or some other power move from the top position . Struve got blasted by Dos Santos but who didn't ?
Parlay at betandwin : Quarry vs Rivera wont go full 3 rounds + Kenny Florian to win , combined odds + 100 / 2.00 .
Rivera has been finished in all of his losses and this is what I am seeing here but odds to this not to go the distance are much better than Quarry moneyline . Tho I wouldn't be shocked one bit if Quarry got stopped on cuts TKO or even knocked out .
Haven't been impressed with Gomi in forever , I just rewatched his fight with Golyaev and this could look similar with Kenny staying outside and working some kicks , basically same thing he did to Huerta . Gomi isn't known for his cardio and the pace Kenny sets could make Gomi going gassed into the 2nd round . I think either Kenny by submissions or decision .
High at - 127 was a great but don't see whole lot of value at - 200 . Same with Winner , - 165 was slight value but again this is going into - 220 direction I don't like it too much .
I see a lot of fights with grapplers in them on this card and some fights which could end up in close decisions so I rather save my money for UFC 112 and boxing this weekend .Comment -
Decided to make the final play on Winner , odds are still in the range I wanted to see .
Wed 3/31 7:15PM
UFC Fight Night 21 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Bojangles Coliseum - Charlotte, North Carolina
Andre Winner vs Rafaello Oliveira
My pick is Andre Winner to win
Odds : - 200
Where : thegreek$600 to win $300
Rewatched few of Oliveira's fights and I think he will struggle taking and keeping Winner down , on the feet Winner's fluent movement and striking should be too much for Oliveira . He has also shown sloppy control and submission attempts on the ground for UFC level , it might have been enough to submit guys on the local circuit . Oliveira has gassed in few fights and Winner wont stop moving and landing crisp kicks and punches . I am not sure if Winner can KO him like he did against Delgado but I like his chances to sprawl and exploit holes in Oliveira's stand up defense .Comment -
i like your andre winer pickComment -
Week : 8-6 - 1.62 units
-------------------------------------------
Boxing YTD : 23-6 + 47.74 units
MMA YTD : 23-14 - 9.97 units
K-1 YTD : 1-0 + 0.95 units
Parlays YTD : 14-9 + 36.08 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 61-29 +74.8 units
Sat 4/3 3:00AM
K-1 World Grand Prix 2010 - Yokohama, Japan
Kyotaro vs Peter Aerts
My pick is Peter Aerts to win
Odds : - 286
Where : expekt$286 to win $100
I think best value out of all favorites is Aerts . Maeda is a fraud , K-1 is setting him up to lose so Aerts can get the belt . Aerts is old but in the last 6 years he has only lost to Schilt twice , Hari , Overeem and Hoost - no shame at all . Maeda got tooled by Ruslan Karaev and Tyrone Spong recently , he will not be able to run away from Aerts whole time .
Semmy Schilt vs Errol Zimmerman , no bet . I wouldn't mind seeing Errol knock out the giant tho it's unlikely to happen but I think Zimmerman will come out guns blazing like Hari did in both bouts vs Schilt (it worked once) . Tough to bet against Schilt in K-1 .
Badr Hari vs Alexey Ignashov , no bet . I hope Ignashov pulls it off , this would be great but Hari will bring the violence so Alexey better be mentally in the fight and not thinking about vodka . Ignashov got power and skills to catch Hari when he starts getting too aggressive . Hari - 400 ? NO THX . I had him vs Overeem in their first bout at much better odds and he got raped . With his chin and this being K-1 any punch can put you down and it will be hard to rally from 10-8 round against a durable fighter like Ignashov .
Jerome Le Banner vs Tyrone Spong , either Jerome + 200 or nothing . Spong used to fight at 170-185 lbs almost his whole career and he is the smallest guy around in K-1 . Le Banner has been training at Aerts's and says he will kill Spong . Spong is probably the most skilled guy in K-1 but he is too small at the moment , maybe in few years when he adds more weight . Question is will Le Banner even bother or is he going to pull another horrible performance once again ?Comment -
Sat 4/3 9:00PM
Super Featherweight 10 rounds - Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Rocky Juarez vs Jason Litzau
My pick is Juarez wins inside distance
Odds : - 120
$240 to win $200
Sat 4/3 9:00PM
Light Heavyweight 10 rounds - Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Ismayl Sillakh vs Daniel Judah
My pick is Sillakh wins by 10 rnd decision
Odds : + 117
$200 to win $234Comment -
hey ice anythoughts this weekend? love the boxing element u bring to the forum.Comment -
Going with this one , Mijares disappointed me against Vic and then lost 2 more in a row by decision , this is a must win fight for him . He is boxing at home , this fight could very well go to a decision and I think he will edge it . Tho I wouldn't be shocked at all if Francisco Arce got stopped , out of 37 bouts he pretty much faced only one boxer I know Simphiwe Nongqayi and lost to the african at home in Mexico by decision . Other than Nongqayi his record if full of people nobody has heard of .
PS : Forgot Giovanni Segura but he stopped Arce in round 1 tho ...Comment -
Weekend : 2-0 + 3.72 units
-------------------------------------------
Boxing YTD : 23-8 + 43.34 units
MMA YTD : 24-14 - 8.25 units
K-1 YTD : 1-1 - 1.91 units
Parlays YTD : 16-10 + 38.40 units
--------------------------------------------
Total YTD : 64-33 + 71.58 units
Going to try those 2 today small . I think Stieglitz by decision at betandwin + 230 is a great offer and small insurance on Gutknecht by decision + 550 .Comment -
what do u think about pavlik and dan henderson?Comment
