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UFC Vegas 29 picks
3 units Khaos Williams by KO/TKO/DQ + 125
1 Unit Silva by KO/TKO/DQ +245
3 units Vera -200
.55 units Bruno Silva by KO/TKO/DQ + 185
.5 unit Parlay Oneil & Jandiroba +313
2.5 Units Zombie +120
Good Luck fight Fans
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Have fun rafting Hugo, I've been on a few rafting trips and they were awesome - alcohol was flowing like the river and hot girls flashing their
Can't believe your only bet is on a female fight but good luck
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UFC on ESPN 25: Korean Zombie vs. Ige
ESPN Prelims:
Fight #1: Procopio vs. O’Neill
Procopio (-154) 1u to win 0.65u
Fight #2: J. Silva vs. Glenn
No Bet
Fight #3: Parisian vs. R. Martinez
No Bet
Fight #4: Semelsberger vs. K. Williams
No Bet
Fight #5: Jandiroba vs. Murata
No Bet
Fight #6: Camur vs. Negumereanu
No Bet
Main Card:
Fight #7: D. Lima vs. M. Brown
No Bet
Fight #8: B. Silva (DEBUT) vs. Turman
No Bet
Fight #9: S. Choi vs. Erosa
No Bet
Fight #10: Vera vs. Grant
No Bet
Fight #11: Spivac vs. Oliynik
No Bet
Fight #12: Ige vs. Korean Zombie
No BetLeave a comment:
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UFC on ESPN 25: Korean Zombie vs. Ige Picks:
Lara Procopio Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Joaquim Silva Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Josh Parisian Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Matthew Semelsberger Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Virna Jandiroba Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Aleksa Camur Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Dhiego Lima Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Bruno Silva Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Seung Woo Choi Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marlon Vera Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Sergei Spivac Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Dan Ige Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3)Leave a comment:
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Will be out of town on a rafting trip this weekend. Currently planning for just one bet on this card.Leave a comment:
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Main card..
Bantamweight: Marlon Vera vs. Davey Grant
Best Win for Vera? Sean O’Malley For Grant? Jonathan Martinez
Current Streak: Vera came up short opposite Jose Aldo last time out, whereas Grant has won three in a row after years of struggling with injury
X-Factor: Grant does not understand the idea of caution
How these two match up: I have yet to see either men in a boring fight.
Interestingly, both athletes started as grapplers before moving more into the striking realm. Vera started as something of a wild man with a jiu-jitsu black belt, but he’s developed into a brutal Southpaw kickboxer who really breaks opponents down across 15 minutes. Meanwhile, Grant came up on the regional scene in the UK double-legging and strangling his opponents, but his last two fights have seen him show an entirely different hand: gigantic, winging hooks that have nastily stopped two opponents in a row.
It’s easy to forget, but these two actually battled back in 2016 (Grant pretty easily out-wrestled his foe for a decision nod).
Realistically, Grant has just knocked out two opponents with better technical striking than himself. Hell, Martinez was a MUCH better striker than Grant, but that didn’t stop “Dangerous” from blitzing him in the second round. Vera finds himself in that same precarious position: being a better striker than Grant.
Fortunately, Vera has a granite chin, and his takedown defense has shored up majorly since their first contest. Plus, Vera does his best work while marching forward, which should prove a considerable antidote to Grant’s lunging punches, which rely on his opponent backing up to land perfectly.
Vera doesn’t take backwards steps. Instead, he breaks Grant down and punishes him late to earn revenge (probably after losing the first round).
Prediction: Vera via knockout
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Zombie-Ige Gets Official Poster
Middleweight: Wellington Turman vs. Bruno Silva
Best Win for Turman? Markus Perez For Silva? Alexander Shlemenko
Current Streak: Turman came up short last time out, whereas Silva will make his UFC debut following an excellent win streak in M-1 Global
X-Factor: Turman is just 24 years old
How these two match up: A pair of very talented Middleweights will throw down.
I like athletes like Turman. In a division of specialists who gas at the six minute mark, Turman is well-rounded, tough, and can push a solid pace for 15 minutes. Unfortunately, the 24 year old is definitely a bit hittable, which came back to bite him against Andrew Sanchez in his previous bout.
Silva, meanwhile, rebounded from a rough career start at 5-5 to win 14 of his next 15 bouts! The former M-1 champion is a bit wild on his feet, swinging wide, powerful punches en route to the clinch, where he can often muscle foes around.
This is real, real interesting. On one hand, Silva is not immune to takedowns or being controlled in the clinch, which is typically how Turman likes to grind foes down. At the same time, Silva throws hard, and Turman cannot afford to take shots to chin until his opponent gets tired.
I get burned fairly often on picking prospects whom I like for long term upside, but I’m not about to start learning from my mistakes now! Turman survives a scare or two to get his takedowns going and control his foe en route to a clear-cut win.
Prediction: Turman via decision
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Predictions! UFC Vegas 29 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1
Predictions! UFC Vegas 29 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1
Welterweight: Matt Brown vs. Dhiego Lima
Best Win for Brown? Erick Silva For Lima? Court McGee
Current Streak: Brown has lost two in a row, while Lima came up short in his last bout
X-Factor: Brown does not like body shots
How these two match up: As with all Matt Brown fights, someone is going down hard.
Brown’s skills are still there. The “technical brawler” still carries major power in his hands and lots of clinch trickery in close. However, he’s definitely lost a bit in the way of durability and conditioning, which previously were huge assets for “The Immortal.”
Lima, meanwhile, has really come into his own in the last couple years. He’s still vulnerable to being bullied by power punches and/or takedowns, but he’s refined his counter punching a great deal, and Lima’s offense generally just looks more dangerous.
Is there a chance Lima kills Brown with a single shot, be it a counter left hook or liver kick? Certainly, and it grows with each day that Brown pushes passed the age of 40. However, I am not fully ready to write Brown off yet, and this match up is really custom-made for classic Brown violence.
Lima does not like to be backed up, nor does he have the chin to take serious power shots. If nothing else, Brown can still walk a motherf—r down and drop the hammer. If and when Lima backs into the fence, expect Brown to tee off with an increasingly nasty salvo of elbows, knees, and right hands until his opponent folds.
Prediction: Brown via knockoutLeave a comment:
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Prelims write ups.. mmamania
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155 lbs.: Joaquim Silva vs. Rick Glenn
Despite falling to eventual winner Glaico Franca in the opening round of TUF: Brazil 4, Joaquim Silva (11-2) warred his way to wins in four of his first five UFC appearances, including a “Fight of the Night” stoppage of Jared Gordon. Fellow slugger Nasrat Haqparast proved a tougher nut to crack, finishing “Netto BJJ” with second-round strikes in Aug. 2019.
He gives up four inches of height to the 6’0” Rick Glenn (21-6-1).
After an unsuccessful UFC Lightweight debut against Evan Dunham, Glenn returned to Featherweight to win three of his next four, among them an absolute mauling of Gavin Tucker. He went on to face late-notice UFC debutant Kevin Aguilar in an entertaining (but unsuccessful) battle at TUF 28 Finale.
This will be his first fight in more than 2.5 years.
Considering both men’s lengthy layoffs, it’s hard to make a definitive statement on who will come out victorious. All I can say with certainty is that it’ll be incredibly entertaining: both of these men are sluggers to the core, interested in little more than beating the life out of their opponents.
Though Glenn has the edge in durability, I find myself leaning towards Silva, both for the lesser amount of rust he’s dealing with and the fact that Glenn won’t have the size and strength advantages he enjoyed at 145 pounds. In short, Silva out-slugs him in a 15-minute fire fight.
Prediction: Silva via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! ‘Korean Zombie’ Rises Against Ige!
125 lbs.: Casey O’Neill vs. Lara Procopio
Casey O’Neill (6-0) cut her teeth on the Australian circuit before joining UAE Warriors, where she picked up a second-round finish to set up a shot at the Octagon. She made the most of the opportunity by pounding out the resurgent Shana Dobson in Feb. 2021.
She boasts two inches of height and 1.5 inches of reach on her Brazilian foe.
Nova Uniao’s Lara Procopio (7-1) claimed double champ status in Shooto Brasil en route to the Octagon, where she battled countrywoman Karol Rosa to a narrow defeat in her debut. Then came a 17-month absence, which she ended by grappling her way past Molly McCann in February.
She has tapped two professional opponents and knocked out one other.
For my money, this is the closest fight on the “Prelims,” a functional mirror match between two extremely promising young women with top-notch grappling and effective striking. I’ve got O’Neill by a hair; she’s the more likely of the two to do noteworthy damage if she ends up on top and theoretically has the technical skills to hold her own on the feet and scramble out of danger if she ends up on her back.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Procopio lean on the conservative top control she used to beat McCann; as good as O’Neill’s looked on the ground, she’s yet to test her grappling against a Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist of Procopio’s caliber. Still, I like “King’s” ground-and-pound to win her a narrow decision.
Prediction: O’Neill via unanimous decision
Related
Zombie-Ige Gets Official Poster
205 lbs.: Nico Negumereanu vs. Aleksa Camur
Romania’s Nico Negumereanu (9-1) was nothing if not efficient during his pre-UFC career, dispatching all of his foes within two rounds. Debut foe Saparbeg Safarov was made of sterner stuff, however, and handily outclassed Negumereanu over the course of 15 minutes.
“Nicu” fights for the first time in 27 months.
He had to make his first trip to the judges to do it, but Aleksa Camur (6-1) successfully followed his “Contender Series” victory by edging out Justin Ledet in his first UFC appearance. He then took on fellow DWCS graduate William Knight, resulting in Camur’s first professional defeat as “Knightmare” racked up long stretches of top control.
All five of his pro knockouts came in less than two rounds.
One of the things that makes this sport so fascinating is how quickly fighters can improve. For Negumereanu’s sake, that better be the case here. Even acknowledging that Camur’s a bit of an underachiever, he has “Nicu” badly outgunned on the feet. If Negumereanu can’t consistently put him on his back, he’s going to get torn apart.
This isn’t to say that Camur can’t find a way to lose this fight — he fought Knight in the most self-sabotaging manner imaginable and paid the price for it. Barring an inhuman level of improvement on Negumereanu’s part during his time away, though, Camur dominates at range and in the clinch.
Prediction: Camur via unanimous decision
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170 lbs.: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Khaos Williams
Matthew Semelsberger (8-2) battled back from a 3-2 professional start to earn a spot in UFC, where he out-dueled Carlton Minus in his professional debut. Seven months later, “Semi the Jedi” took just 16 seconds to flatten Jason Witt and earn “Performance of the Night” in the process.
Five of his wins, including three of his last four, have come by form of knockout.
Khaos Williams (11-2) lived up to his moniker in his first two Octagon appearances, stopping crushing Alex Morono and Abdul Razak Alhassan in a combined 57 seconds. He then made a quick turnaround against Michel Pereira, resulting in his first professional defeat since 2018.
He’ll have two inches of reach on Semelsberger despite being the shorter man.
I’m not entirely sure why a guaranteed war like this is stuck as the opening Prelim, but the early viewers are being richly rewarded. Semelsberger’s relentless aggression and versatile striking attack figure to mesh brilliantly with Williams’ power-punching onslaught, creating a fight that could end at any moment.
The outcome here boils down to Semelsberger’s durability — he’s the better combination striker and looks to have a significant edge in volume, so if he can stay conscious, he figures to back Williams up and rack up damage. I’ll go ahead and believe in his chin. In the end, aggression and output carry him to a mid-round stoppage.
Prediction: Semelsberger via second round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Kanako Murata vs. Virna Jandiroba
A standout wrestler in her native Japan, Kanako Murata (12-1) won seven straight on her way to UFC, including a decision over Emily Ducote for the Invicta Strawweight title. She kept her momentum going in her Octagon debut, which saw her out-grapple veteran Randa Markos to sweep the scorecards.
She gives up two inches of height and reach to Virna Jandiroba (16-2).
After defeating Mizuki Inoue for the Invicta title and defending it with a submission over Janaisa Morandin, Jandiroba jumped ship to the UFC, where she lost a decision to former champion Carla Esparza. Impressive finishes of Mallory Martin and Felice Herrig carried her into title contention, only for Mackenzie Dern to halt her progress via competitive decision.
She’s ended 13 of her 16 professional wins inside the distance, all of them via submission.
With Tatiana Suarez moving to 125 pounds, Murata now likely boasts the greatest wrestling credentials in the Strawweight division, ostensibly outclassing even a stud grappler like Jandiroba in that area. Murata’s also fearless in the face of dangerous submission artists, as seen in the Ducote fight, so she’ll almost certainly be chasing takedowns here.
Jandiroba’s limited striking means she’ll have to rely on either tapping Murata from her back or swaying the judges with submission attempts. Considering how many near-misses Ducote had, neither of those are particularly infeasible, but I see Murata leaning on constant takedowns and long stretches of top control for the win.
Prediction: Murata via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Julian Erosa vs. Seung Woo Choi
Two years after leaving UFC on a loss to Teruto Ishihara, Julian Erosa (25-8) knocked out Jamall Emmers on the Contender Series to punch his return ticket, but soon found himself back on the regional circuit after three consecutive defeats. Then came a late-notice opportunity against Sean Woodson, whom Erosa submitted in a “Performance of the Night” effort before knocking out Nate Landwehr.
He has knocked out and submitted 11 opponents apiece.
Seung Woo Choi (9-3) didn’t have the smoothest of Octagon starts, falling short against unbeaten Movsar Evloev and once-beaten Gavin Tucker in his first two efforts. He has since gotten back on track by beating Suman Mokhtarian and Youssef Zalal, the latter on the heels of a 13-month layoff.
“Sting” faces a one-inch height disadvantage.
Both of these men impressed me greatly in recent efforts, Erosa by wearing down a far superior boxer in Woodson and Choi by completely shutting down Zalal’s wrestling after previously struggling to keep fights standing. They have the tools to exploit one another’s weaknesses, making this a pick-‘em like almost every other Prelim in this lineup, but Choi seems the better-equipped of the two. Erosa’s still too eager to compromise his range and trade heat, which will end in disaster against a more durable brawler like Choi, and “Juicy J’s” seemingly improved wrestling won’t find any more success than Zalal’s did.
While he’s exceeded my expectations before, I still don’t trust Erosa against a solid puncher whom he can’t reliably take down. In the end, Choi clips him sometime in the second.
Prediction: Choi via second round technical knockout
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265 lbs.: Josh Parisian vs. Roque Martinez
The unsuccessful The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) bid for josh Parisian (13-4) and subsequent loss to Brett Martin gave way to six consecutive (technical) knockouts, the last of which saw him stop Chad Johnson in his second “Contender Series” appearance to earn a UFC contract. His debut pitted him against Parker Porter, who welcomed him to the world’s largest fight promotion by beating him in a war of attrition.
He has knocked out 10 professional foes and submitted two others.
Roque Martinez (15-7-2) enjoyed a lengthy run on the Japanese circuit, cutting his teeth in both DEEP and Riziin from 2017 to early 2020. He’s yet to claim his first Octagon victory, tapping to Alexander Romanov and dropping a decision to Don’Tale Mayes two months later.
He is the shorter man by six inches and gives up seven inches of reach.
Despite considerable advantages in height and reach, Parisian allowed Porter to march his way inside and wear him down at close range last time out. I don’t see him having much more success against another squat slugger in Martinez, who despite his fluffy physique has a clear edge in cardio and the durability to drag Parisian into deep water.
That said, Martinez did take a while to really start walking down Mayes, but Parisian’s much less adept at utilizing his range than “Lord Kong” and figures to fade far more quickly. As long as he commits to staying on the front foot, Martinez beats Parisian up in the pocket for an increasingly one-sided decision.
Prediction: Martinez via unanimous decisionLeave a comment:
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My area casino is Rivers in Pittsburgh. They have Camur at -265. Camur being a Cleveland product makes him a local fight fan favorite. His opponent coming off a 2+ year layoff. Both are coming off losses. Nugumereanu has faced some stiff UFC competition and came up short. With the odds the way they stand, I think this is a good fight to take the dog. Nugum a Dagestan has to have a strong wrestling game. Camur is not a seasoned fighter. His lack of patience may cost him in this match up. This card doesn't spark my interest much. Small wager on Nugum and a couple hundred on Ige. GL
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I'm still bitter from taking Zombie vs Ortega, then conveniently finding out about a knee injury he'd suffered before the fight, shortly after.Leave a comment:
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UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Ige (June 19, 2021)
ESPN2 7:00 pm ET
Chan Sung Jung vs. Dan Ige
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Serghei Spivac
Tim Means vs. Danny Roberts
Davey Grant vs. Marlon Vera
Bruno Silva vs. Wellington Turman
Matt Brown vs. Dhiego Lima
ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Aleksa Camur vs. Nicolae Negumereanu
Virna Jandiroba vs. Kanako Murata
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Khaos Williams
Julian Erosa vs. Seungwoo Choi
Roque Martinez vs. Josh Parisian
Rick Glenn vs. Joaquim Silva
Casey O’Neill vs. Lara Procopio
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