UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos (July 06, 2019)

[JAKEPEAVY21]

papertrail, hugo..give me a parlay that pays +2000 or better

I don't ask much

[Shagdogy]

Very little time this past couple of weeks and a card full of big favs... this might actually be a hard pass for me with no bets.

Yadong/Askren parlay is just barely plus money at +112. I don’t love the value on either guy but I do think they both win. Maaaaybe that’s playable small.

Chance/Naurdiev u2.5 is +120. There might be some value in that line.

Shabazyan/Marshman FDGTD -175 seems like an okay line as well, but you have the possibility Shabaz lay n prays. Shabazyan sub +425 (was way higher earlier this week) isn’t terrible given how long this fight could be on the mat.

Played the Askren/Yadong parlay risk 1u. Also noticed my book had a better line posted than what BFO said for Rockhold/Blach FDGTD so I took that to win 1u at -150. So far that's all.

[Shagdogy]

^ I decided not to play Naurdiev/Rencountre u2.5 because Rencountre has never been finished and I think his best gameplan is probably to get right into the clinch, slow the fight down, and try to get Naurdiev's arms heavy early.

As for Shabazyan/Marshman, nothing there since my book doesn't have the props for that one.

[JIBBBY]

These odds are starting to get way jacked up now for the Underdogs in the main.. Hmmmm?

UFC 239 - Light Heavyweight 5 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 7/6		1001 Thiago Santos		+500	o2½ +110
11:59PM		1002 Jon Jones		-700	u2½ -130
UFC 239 - Bantamweight 5 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 7/6		1101 Holly Holm		+330	o4½ +105
11:30PM		1102 Amanda Nunes		-410	u4½ -125

[Shagdogy]

My book has Jones/Santos fight ends by KO/TKO at -120. Trying to decide if I think Jones will get those GnP hellbows working? I thought for sure he'd take Smith out but he coasted that whole fight. With someone like Santos though he's so wild and dangerous that you try to get him out of there ASAP.

[Sanity Check]

Someone plz record Jorge Masvidal's reaction to this.

[HurlSweatPants]

BOL today boys

[boss_of_um]

The definition of a great card to me is one in which I win lots of straight cash homie!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Someone plz record Jorge Masvidal's reaction to this.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Ben is funny.. Lol... I like this guy.. I hope Masvidal doesn't drop him..

[JIBBBY]

Anyone thinking Gilbert might be a live dog in this scrap.. Gilbert is tough as nails.. Allen isn't all that, still raw a bit..

UFC 239 - Featherweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - ESPN
Sat 7/6		1501 Gilbert Melendez		+280	o2½ -275
9:30PM		1502 Arnold Allen		-340	u2½ +235

[Fred The Hammer]

Huge Gamebred fan, but I don't see him getting it done tonite? He's dropped 4 split decisions since he came over from Strikeforce and 3 to wrestlers. He's pretty slick on the ground and good in the scramble, but he's sort of a tweener weight wise. By that I mean he's too small for 170, but he had to cut too much to make 155. These are the most elite fighters in the world and a little extra muscle makes a huge difference! Plus Jorge has been a slow starter at times and that hurts in a 3 rounder.

I will say that the logic of the statement "Well if Lawler couldn't stop him, then Masvidal definitely won't be able to" doesn't hold up.
A>B & B>C = Does not equal A > C.....thats not how fighting (or gambling) works! Lawler is near the end. That war with Rory MacDonald will probably take years off both of their lives. Masvidal has better cardio. He's not nearly as bulky and he's a good finisher! I think he's at the peak of his game, but its most likely just not a good matchup for him.

[UncleChael]

Anyone thinking Gilbert might be a live dog in this scrap.. Gilbert is tough as nails.. Allen isn't all that, still raw a bit..

UFC 239 - Featherweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - ESPN
Sat 7/6		1501 Gilbert Melendez		+280	o2½ -275
9:30PM		1502 Arnold Allen		-340	u2½ +235

Gilbert Melendez best 155er on the planet - Nathan Diaz

[strictlypaypal]

Hugo, what are your thoughts on holm/nunes?

[nyrider88]

nunes hasnt proved her endurance yet, holm can go on for 10 rounds.

[JIBBBY]

Well fellas ^^^ Gilbert has been in with the very best. Sure he lost his last 4 fights but look who he faced.. Studs..

One of the few guys to beat Masvidal also..https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gilbert-Melendez-5545

Who has Arnold really fought? I don't think he can sub out Gilbert either.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Arnold-Allen-97499

I'm giving Gilbert a chance in this one.. Arnold has struggled in recent fights early on also..

[dvb02]

Hugo, when are you going to post your picks?

[Shagdogy]

Might kick myself for this one, but I'm following my gut more than my head... for a small play... Naurdiev/Rencountre u2.5 +120 to win 1u.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo, when are you going to post your picks?

In the next hour or so. Slept in late since I was up till 4:30 last night watching some more tape.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo, what are your thoughts on holm/nunes?

Nunes ITD

[Hugo de Naranja]

nunes hasnt proved her endurance yet, holm can go on for 10 rounds.

Not hard to have good cardio when you make librarian noises and run away all fight

"Shhh shhh shhh"
-Holly Holm

[fademe101]

thoughts on this card? hate laying a lot of juice, but this is the way i see it...

avila
naurdiev
shahbazyan
yadong
markos
vera
allen
chiesa
blachowicz
holm
jones

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Julia Avila Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Ismail Naurdiev Unanimous Decision (30-26 x3)
Edmen Shahbazyan Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Song Yadong Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Claudia Gadelha Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Marlon Vera Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Arnold Allen Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Michael Chiesa Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Luke Rockhold Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Ben Askren Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Amanda Nunes Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Jon Jones Round 1 TKO (Elbows and Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos

Fight Pass Early Prelims:

Fight #1: Avila (DEBUT) vs. Kianzad
Parlays

Fight #2: Naurdiev vs. Rencountre
Parlays

Fight #3: Shahbazyan vs. Marshman
No Bet

ESPN Prelims:

Fight #4: Yadong vs. A. Perez
Yadong (-150) 3u to win 2u
Yadong ITD (+220) 0.5u
Yadong Submission (+950) 0.5u

Fight #5: Gadelha vs. Markos
Parlays

Fight #6: Vera vs. N. Hernandez (DEBUT)
Parlays

Fight #7: Allen vs. Melendez
Allen Decision (+100) 1u
Allen Round 3 (+1200) 0.25u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Chiesa vs. D. Sanchez
Sanchez Submission (+1600) 0.25u

Fight #9: Rockhold vs. Blachowicz
Rockhold (-156) 7.8u to win 5u
Rockhold+Blachowicz Won’t Go Distance (-120) 2.4u to win 2u

Hedge(s):
Blachowicz ITD (+400) 0.5u
Blachowicz KO/TKO (+510) 0.5u

Fight #10: Askren vs. Masvidal
Askren -3.5 (+160) 1.01u

Hedge:
Masvidal KO/TKO (+350) 1u

Fight #11: Nunes (C) vs. Holm
Nunes+Holm Won’t Go Distance (-115) 2.3u to win 2u

Fight #12: Jones (C) vs. T. Santos
Parlays

Straight Parlays:
Allen/Askren (-108) 1.62u to win 1.5u

Prop Parlays:
Rockhold+Blachowicz WGD/Jones (-105) 1.05u to win 1u
Avila/Naurdiev -3.5 (+103) 0.5u
Avila/Naurdiev -3.5/Yadong/Gadelha/Vera ITD/Allen/Rockhold/Askren/Nunes/Jones (+2390) 0.5u

Full Card Props:
None

Multi-Event Parlays:
Menifield+Craig WGD/Jones (-148) 4.45u to win 3u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Massive misconception about Ben Askren.

"Bro, he can't finish anyone. He always wins by decision."

In his 19 wins, he has 12 finishes (6 KO/TKO, 6 Submissions). That's a 63% finishing rate. Askren has finished all of his last four opponents.

"But bro, that was low level competition."

Askren has finished Robbie Lawler (Former UFC Champion), Shinya Aoki (Former DREAM and ONE Champion), Andrei Koreshkov (Former Bellator Champion), and Karl Amoussou (Former Cage Warriors Champion).

Will he finish Masvidal? I'm not picking it but it's not out of the question. I just think we can put the "Askren can only win fights by decision" shit to bed.

[firekillex]

Massive misconception about Ben Askren.

"Bro, he can't finish anyone. He always wins by decision."

In his 19 wins, he has 12 finishes (6 KO/TKO, 6 Submissions). That's a 63% finishing rate. Askren has finished all of his last four opponents.

"But bro, that was low level competition."

Askren has finished Robbie Lawler (Former UFC Champion), Shinya Aoki (Former DREAM and ONE Champion), Andrei Koreshkov (Former Bellator Champion), and Karl Amoussou (Former Cage Warriors Champion).

Will he finish Masvidal? I'm not picking it but it's not out of the question. I just think we can put the "Askren can only win fights by decision" shit to bed.

i think askren was one of the best 170ers and i think he will win this matchup
but IMO hes out of prime now and 3 round fights against UFC guys itll be hard for him to get much finishes... wouldve loved to see him vs GSP in his prime a few years ago though in Bellator he was a beast

[Shagdogy]

My card:
Rock/Blach FDGTD -150, 2.25u
Naurdiev/Rencountre u2.5 +120, .83u
Avila/Kianzad u2.5 +181, .55u
Askren + Yadong parlay +112, 1u

Will prob have something on Jones KO/TKO or just Jones/Santos fight ends by KO/TKO. We’ll see.

[BIGDAY]

It’s FIGHT NIGHT!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

papertrail, hugo..give me a parlay that pays +2000 or better

I don't ask much

Avila+Kianzad Under 2.5/Yadong Submission pays (+2272)

If you want one with all moneylines and O/Us, try

Avila/Naurdiev/Shahbazyan+Marshman Under 1.5/Yadong/Gadelha/Rockhold/Askren/Nunes. That pays (+2316)

[Baraldsson]

Love Herb's expression in the background, staring at Masvidal like Jorge owes him money.

[PaperTrail07]

wrong card for it LOL

papertrail, hugo..give me a parlay that pays +2000 or better

I don't ask much

[dvb02]

has it started?

[Baraldsson]

Not hard to have good cardio when you make librarian noises and run away all fight

"Shhh shhh shhh"
-Holly Holm

Haha, brilliant! So true aswell.

[JIBBBY]

Here we go good luck fellas!!!

[PaperTrail07]

Don't overthink this card...….its too easy

Jones ITD -200
NUNES ITD -120

avoid sanchez/chis....mas/Askren and mix and match parlay various favs 2 fights....ect….

There is nothing special about this card. It is okay but geez nothing great. With the top three two of them have very good chance to be total bore fest. Holly has just enuf talent to use her pathetic soft punches to bore us for five rounds. I would love to see Nunes smash her. Of course Asken could make this into a sleep fest if Mass fights like an idiot and he is one guy who fights like an idiot from time to time. Not sure i ever saw Santos in a bad fight so that one has promise especially when a wildman fights the Goat. It is good to see Luke back even tho he might be the most self centered guy in the UFC. I was way more siked with ufc 238. I think we have had some real crappy cards lately so everyone thinks this is a super one.