UFC on FOX: Maia vs Condit (August 27, 2016)

[bjpenn85]

Both fighters crying

[Sykes]

I love this guy. Always my fsvorite fighter

[GunShard]

Demian Maia the modern day Royce Gracie.

[KalouKalou]

THANK YOU AND GOOD NIGHT!!!
Maia easy and with the sub.. A beautiful night fellas!!!

AVATAR stays intact... Let's see if the UFC gives him a shot now???

If he could dominate Gunnar Nelson on the ground he'd have no problem with Carlos Condit.. Game over!!!!

Maia vs Nelson was one of the best fight I ever watch.

[firekillex]

like I said killex, I love Condit but this matchup was a nightmare

still think condit on his good night would completely starch maia.. looked absolutely garbage tonight his ground game is much better then what he just showed super disappointing but oh well good on maia for getting another W i just cannot picture him winning the title imo

oh well made a little profit on the night that win wouldve made it a super good night but thats mma , onto the next card
if condit retires great career showed the true heart of a champion has over 30 fights been fighting forever congrats

[sportsfanatic]

did condit even hit maia once in this fight? not trolling. serious question. i don't know.

[JIBBBY]

Both fighters crying

And for good reasons..

[sportsfanatic]

think woodley would be easier fight than wonderboy for maia

[bjpenn85]

Absolutely!

[JC2008]

Demian Maia the modern day Royce Gracie.

- Easy there, chief... Maia dominated but he also never had to defeat 4 men in 1 night, regardless of their caliber.

[JIBBBY]

think woodley would be easier fight than wonderboy for maia

I disagree as I think Maia will have a harder time taking down Woodley then Wonderboy.. Maia takes down Wonderboy with no problems.. Woodley with his wrestling, athleticism and quickness I'm not so sure..

Just keeping it real.. I may fade Maia against Woodley.. Blasphemy I know ...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Prop Hedging FTW
Fight #10: Maia vs. Condit
Fight Won’t Go Distance (-150) +1u
Condit (+120) -3u
Condit KO/TKO (+280) -.5u
Condit Split/Majority Decision (+935) .-5u
Condit Round 3 (+1025) -.25u
Condit Round 4 (+1450) -.5u
Condit Round 5 (+1850) -.5u
Condit/Maia Draw (+7000) -.5u


Hedge(s):
Maia Decision (+250) -1u
Maia Submission (+430) +4.3u
Maia Round 1 (+1200) +6u
Maia Round 2 (+1300) -.5u
Maia Round 3 (+1600) -.25u
Maia Split/Majority Decision (+790) -.5u

[JC2008]

still think condit on his good night would completely starch maia.. looked absolutely garbage tonight his ground game is much better then what he just showed super disappointing but oh well good on maia for getting another W i just cannot picture him winning the title imo

oh well made a little profit on the night that win wouldve made it a super good night but thats mma , onto the next card
if condit retires great career showed the true heart of a champion has over 30 fights been fighting forever congrats

- It doesn't matter what you think Condit could accomplish on, "his good night..." His, "good night" had to be tonight and he was destroyed, beyond the wildest dreams of Avarus...

[Thrilla]

did condit even hit maia once in this fight? not trolling. serious question. i don't know.

Only with a few ki energy attacks.

[firekillex]

- It doesn't matter what you think Condit could accomplish on, "his good night..." His, "good night" had to be tonight and he was destroyed, beyond the wildest dreams of Avarus...

never asked what your opinion was on my thought? He lost the fight thats what happened, in my opinion condit is much better then what he just showed and he could beat maia on his night , if that fight was simulated 10 times i bet what just happened wouldnt happen again
oh well good win by maia he took advantage of the early takedown and finished him quick cant say nothing bad about the guy, just dont think hes that elite in mma hes a wizard on the ground but hes to 1 dimensional for me , still would back wonderboy or tyron over him in a heartbeat

[JIBBBY]

Prop Hedging FTW
Fight #10: Maia vs. Condit
Fight Won’t Go Distance (-150) +1u
Condit (+120) -3u
Condit KO/TKO (+280) -.5u
Condit Split/Majority Decision (+935) .-5u
Condit Round 3 (+1025) -.25u
Condit Round 4 (+1450) -.5u
Condit Round 5 (+1850) -.5u
Condit/Maia Draw (+7000) -.5u


Hedge(s):
Maia Decision (+250) -1u
Maia Submission (+430) +4.3u
Maia Round 1 (+1200) +6u
Maia Round 2 (+1300) -.5u
Maia Round 3 (+1600) -.25u
Maia Split/Majority Decision (+790) -.5u

Nice Hugo.. Very nice hit with the DM 1st round prop at +1200.. I really thought about that prop too but didn't pull the trigger.. No lie... Submission experts always have the best chance of getting the submission when they are fresh and dry.. That happens to be the 1st round.. You knew that and pulled the trigger I did not..

Had to go after it with my boy on the meat plays..... I don't play the round props often but maybe I should..

$500.00

$525.00

Win

8/27/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demian Maia +105* vs Carlos Condit

$100.00

$430.00

Win

8/27/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1035 Maia wins by submission +430* vs Any other result

[Thrilla]

- Easy there, chief... Maia dominated but he also never had to defeat 4 men in 1 night, regardless of their caliber.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 21 Plays:

Fight #1: Ricci (DEBUT) vs. Kennedy (DEBUT)
No Play

Result: Jeremy Kennedy Unanimous Decision

Fight #2: Laprise vs. Gouti
Laprise -3.5 (-135) +1u
Laprise Decision (+110) -1u

Hedge(s):
Gouti ITD (+435) -.25u
Gouti Submission (+1160) -.25u

Result: Chad Laprise Round 1 TKO
Fight: -.5u
Card: -.5u

Fight #3: Campbell vs. Silva (DEBUT)
Campbell (-125) -1.25u
Campbell Round 2 (+650) -.25u
Campbell Round 3 (+1125) -.125u

Hedge:
Silva Round 1 (+400) +2u

Result: Felipe Silva Round 1 TKO
Fight: +.375u
Card: -.125u

Fight #4: McLellan vs. Di Chirico
Di Chirico (-210) +1u
Di Chirico ITD (+115) -.5u
Di Chirico Round 2 (+475) -.5u
Di Chirico Round 3 (+800) -.5u

Result: Di Chirico Split Decision
Fight: -.5u
Card: -.625u

Fight #5: Barzola vs. Bochniak
Bochniak -3.5 (+140) -1u

Result: Bochniak Split Decision
Fight: -1u
Card: -1.625u

Fight #6: Alvey vs. Casey
Alvey (-190) +1u
Alvey ITD (+145) +2.175u
Alvey Round 2 (+450) +6.75u
Alvey Round 3 (+850) -1u

Hedge(s):
Casey Round 1 (+1000) -.75u
Alvey/Casey Draw (+7000) -.125u

Result: Sam Alvey Round 2 TKO
Fight: +8.05u
Card: +6.425u

Fight #7: Miller vs. Lauzon
Miller (-130) +1u
Miller (+135) +1.35u
Miller Decision (+259) +1.295u

Result: Jim Miller Split Decision
Fight: +3.94u
Card: +10.365u

Fight #8: VanZant vs. Rawlings
VanZant Decision (+116) -1u
VanZant -3.5 (+165) +.825u
VanZant Round 3 (+1225) -.5u

Result: Page VanZant Round 2 TKO
Fight: -.675u
Card: +9.69u

Fight #9: Pettis vs. Oliveira
Oliveira (+150) -1u
Oliveira (+175) -2u
Oliveira Decision (+350) -.5u
Oliveira Decision (+510) -.5u

Hedge:
Pettis KO/TKO (+200) -.5u

Added:
Fight Goes Distance (+165) -1u
Pettis Submission (+929) +6.9675u

Result: Anthony Pettis Round 3 Submission
Fight: +1.4675u
Card: +11.1575u

Fight #10: Maia vs. Condit
Fight Won’t Go Distance (-150) +1u
Condit (+120) -3u
Condit KO/TKO (+280) -.5u
Condit Split/Majority Decision (+935) .-5u
Condit Round 3 (+1025) -.25u
Condit Round 4 (+1450) -.5u
Condit Round 5 (+1850) -.5u
Condit/Maia Draw (+7000) -.5u

Hedge(s):
Maia Decision (+250) -1u
Maia Submission (+430) +4.3u
Maia Round 1 (+1200) +6u
Maia Round 2 (+1300) -.5u
Maia Round 3 (+1600) -.25u
Maia Split/Majority Decision (+790) -.5u

Result: Demian Maia Round 1 Submission
Fight: +2.3u
Card: +13.4575u

Straight Parlays:
Sam Alvey/Chad Laprise (+109) +1.09u
Kyle Bochniak/Alessio Di Chirico (+137) +1.37u

Fights: +2.46u
Card: +15.9175u

Prop Parlays:
Alessio Di Chirico -3.5/Mickey Gall (+116) -1u
Alvey and Casey Go Distance/Condit -5.5 (+438) -.5u
Casey Decision/Condit -5.5 (+738) -.25u
Laprise Decision/Alvey ITD/VanZant Decision (+1000) -.5u
Campbell Decision/Di Chirico Decision (+1225) -.5u
Miller Decision/Pettis KO (+1236) -.5u
Gouti ITD/Pettis Round 1 (+2000) -.25u
Miller Decision/Condit Decision (+2529) -.25u
Di Chirico Round 2/Alvey Round 2 (+3063) -.125u
Alvey Round 3/VanZant Round 3 (+9400) -.125u

Added:
Oliveira and Pettis Go Distance/Maia ITD (+934) -.25u

Fights: -4.25u
Card: +11.6675u

Full Card Props:
Fights to end in KO/TKO Over 3.5 (+130) +1.3u
No Fights end in submission (+634) -.5u

Fights: +.8u
Card: +12.4675u

Live Betting:
Miller (+240) +1.2u
VanZant (+100) +.5u

Fights: +1.7u
Final Card Profit: +14.1675u

[firekillex]

Nice huge this how I played it.. Had to go after it with my boy...

$500.00

$525.00

Win

8/27/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demian Maia +105* vs Carlos Condit

$100.00

$430.00

Win

8/27/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1035 Maia wins by submission +430* vs Any other result

solid win , the avatar lives

[Demonata]

never asked what your opinion was on my thought? He lost the fight thats what happened, in my opinion condit is much better then what he just showed and he could beat maia on his night , if that fight was simulated 10 times i bet what just happened wouldnt happen again
oh well good win by maia he took advantage of the early takedown and finished him quick cant say nothing bad about the guy, just dont think hes that elite in mma hes a wizard on the ground but hes to 1 dimensional for me , still would back wonderboy or tyron over him in a heartbeat

Totally agree with this post. HE would not beat either of those two. Condit moved slow today and wonderboy and woodley would both win in my opinion against maia.

[bjpenn85]

never asked what your opinion was on my thought? He lost the fight thats what happened, in my opinion condit is much better then what he just showed and he could beat maia on his night , if that fight was simulated 10 times i bet what just happened wouldnt happen again
oh well good win by maia he took advantage of the early takedown and finished him quick cant say nothing bad about the guy, just dont think hes that elite in mma hes a wizard on the ground but hes to 1 dimensional for me , still would back wonderboy or tyron over him in a heartbeat

What? He easily improved positions and submitted condit? You talk like this is a first round KO, a lucky punch. We dont know how this would have been if we simulated the matchup 10 times, but we know Maia easily won the first match. Many people said that because condit is so good on the ground, it will create openings for Maia, compared to brown, they proved to be right.

[firekillex]

What? He easily improved positions and submitted condit? You talk like this is a first round KO, a lucky punch. We dont know how this would have been if we simulated the matchup 10 times, but we know Maia easily won the first match. Many people said that because condit is so good on the ground, it will create openings for Maia, compared to brown, they proved to be right.

people see something once and think its the rule... example the diaz/mcgregor fight
ive watched condit in the beginning of the wec days, i know for a fact hes a beast on the ground and he could hold his own with maia without getting subbed most nights, maia is a wizard on the mat , condit came out looking flat and he got trapped by a great top pass into mount then mentally checked out put his hands on the mat trying to get up which is a terrible rookie mistake giving your back like that to maia, even when giving his back he gave the choke up super quick , usually condit would get into guard and throw a ton of elbows/ shots but is what it is maia won gotta give him a bit of respect but well see when/if he fights for the title if hes the real deal.... definitely fading fighters that are seriously contemplating retirement though this was a good lesson ... just happy most of my other props hit or this card wouldve been a rough one, and i wanted to see condit/wonderboy selfishly but thats mma for ya anybody can win on a given night, if maia does this same performance against wonderboy/tyron ill have to make him my profile pic for a bit

[bjpenn85]

people see something once and think its the rule... example the diaz/mcgregor fight
ive watched condit in the beginning of the wec days, i know for a fact hes a beast on the ground and he could hold his own with maia without getting subbed most nights, maia is a wizard on the mat , condit came out looking flat and he got trapped by a great top pass into mount then mentally checked out put his hands on the mat trying to get up which is a terrible rookie mistake giving your back like that to maia, even when giving his back he gave the choke up super quick , usually condit would get into guard and throw a ton of elbows/ shots but is what it is maia won gotta give him a bit of respect but well see when/if he fights for the title if hes the real deal.... definitely fading fighters that are seriously contemplating retirement though this was a good lesson ... just happy most of my other props hit or this card wouldve been a rough one, and i wanted to see condit/wonderboy selfishly but thats mma for ya anybody can win on a given night, if maia does this same performance against wonderboy/tyron ill have to make him my profile pic for a bit

But he hasnt faced Maia before, this was how he reacted to Maias pressure/game. Thats the whole point with matching people up with each other, he fought different because he faced Maia, he made mistakes he maybe wouldnt have done against someone else. Maybe it would have been different the second time, but were not betting on Condit vs Maia the rematch? See my point, therefor this oh if we simulate this matchup 10 times argument holds no value.

I agree with everything else you said.

[bjpenn85]

Thats kind of why people say " i like fighter x in this spot" Its because they know that this and that fighter have an advantage at this very moment, that fighter x maybe does not have the resources or the capabilities to adjust.

[firekillex]

But he hasnt faced Maia before, this was how he reacted to Maias pressure/game. Thats the whole point with matching people up with each other, he fought different because he faced Maia, he made mistakes he maybe wouldnt have done against someone else. Maybe it would have been different the second time, but were not betting on Condit vs Maia the rematch? See my point, therefor this oh if we simulate this matchup 10 times argument holds no value.

I agree with everything else you said.

i get your point to, mma math doesnt work but watching brown defend subs from maia all day while he was on his back makes me think condit could usually defend it as well, rorys win over him showed movement works well against maia which i think condit has better movement then rory which he didnt really show either... cant really say much the rematch wont happen ever and maia starched him in 30 seconds just my opinion i think condit looked out of it , maia makes people look bad usually but it just seemed different to me... but a loss is a loss doesnt matter if you could win the matchup... you get 1 fight in 1 night and condit didnt perform to the best of his best abilities and maia executed his gameplay to a T so congrats to him 170 looking wild .... good thing about mma is theres another card next weekend already starting to dive into that

[Demonata]

Judging sucked bad in this card is all I know.

[firekillex]

whats everybody liking next card?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nice Hugo.. Very nice hit with the DM 1st round prop at +1200.. I really thought about that prop too but didn't pull the trigger.. No lie...

Had to go after it with my boy on the meat plays..... I don't play the round props often but maybe I should..

$500.00

$525.00

Win

8/27/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demian Maia +105* vs Carlos Condit

$100.00

$430.00

Win

8/27/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1035 Maia wins by submission +430* vs Any other result

Great job tonight man! Was rooting for you throughout.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 21 Picks Results:
Jeremy Kennedy Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Chad Laprise Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Shane Campbell Round 3 TKO
Alessio Di Chirico Round 2 TKO
Kyle Bochniak Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Sam Alvey Round 2 TKO
Jim Miller Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Paige VanZant Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Charles Oliveira Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Carlos Condit Round 4 TKO

Picks results

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 21 Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Alessio Di Chirico ($11,000)
Sam Alvey ($10,200)
Carlos Condit ($10,000)
Jim Miller ($9,100)
Shane Campbell ($8,800)

UFC on Fox 21 Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Alessio Di Chirico ($11,000) SD Win
Sam Alvey ($10,200) R2 TKO Win
Carlos Condit ($10,000) R1 Sub Loss
Jim Miller ($9,100) SD Win
Shane Campbell ($8,800) R1 TKO Loss

[Hugo de Naranja]

Happy with a 14u win tonight. Won on Alvey + ITD + R2, Miller + Decision, Pettis Submission, Maia + Sub + R1, Straight Parlays, and Live Betting. Lost on Oliveira + Decision, Condit + Late Finish, and Prop Parlays. Hoping to keep my win streak going in Hamburg.

[bjpenn85]

UFC on Fox 21 Plays:

Fight #1: Ricci (DEBUT) vs. Kennedy (DEBUT)
No Play

Result: Jeremy Kennedy Unanimous Decision

Fight #2: Laprise vs. Gouti
Laprise -3.5 (-135) +1u
Laprise Decision (+110) -1u

Hedge(s):
Gouti ITD (+435) -.25u
Gouti Submission (+1160) -.25u

Result: Chad Laprise Round 1 TKO
Fight: -.5u
Card: -.5u

Fight #3: Campbell vs. Silva (DEBUT)
Campbell (-125) -1.25u
Campbell Round 2 (+650) -.25u
Campbell Round 3 (+1125) -.125u

Hedge:
Silva Round 1 (+400) +2u

Result: Felipe Silva Round 1 TKO
Fight: +.375u
Card: -.125u

Fight #4: McLellan vs. Di Chirico
Di Chirico (-210) +1u
Di Chirico ITD (+115) -.5u
Di Chirico Round 2 (+475) -.5u
Di Chirico Round 3 (+800) -.5u

Result: Di Chirico Split Decision
Fight: -.5u
Card: -.625u

Fight #5: Barzola vs. Bochniak
Bochniak -3.5 (+140) -1u

Result: Bochniak Split Decision
Fight: -1u
Card: -1.625u

Fight #6: Alvey vs. Casey
Alvey (-190) +1u
Alvey ITD (+145) +2.175u
Alvey Round 2 (+450) +6.75u
Alvey Round 3 (+850) -1u

Hedge(s):
Casey Round 1 (+1000) -.75u
Alvey/Casey Draw (+7000) -.125u

Result: Sam Alvey Round 2 TKO
Fight: +8.05u
Card: +6.425u

Fight #7: Miller vs. Lauzon
Miller (-130) +1u
Miller (+135) +1.35u
Miller Decision (+259) +1.295u

Result: Jim Miller Split Decision
Fight: +3.94u
Card: +10.365u

Fight #8: VanZant vs. Rawlings
VanZant Decision (+116) -1u
VanZant -3.5 (+165) +.825u
VanZant Round 3 (+1225) -.5u

Result: Page VanZant Round 2 TKO
Fight: -.675u
Card: +9.69u

Fight #9: Pettis vs. Oliveira
Oliveira (+150) -1u
Oliveira (+175) -2u
Oliveira Decision (+350) -.5u
Oliveira Decision (+510) -.5u

Hedge:
Pettis KO/TKO (+200) -.5u

Added:
Fight Goes Distance (+165) -1u
Pettis Submission (+929) +6.9675u

Result: Anthony Pettis Round 3 Submission
Fight: +1.4675u
Card: +11.1575u

Fight #10: Maia vs. Condit
Fight Won’t Go Distance (-150) +1u
Condit (+120) -3u
Condit KO/TKO (+280) -.5u
Condit Split/Majority Decision (+935) .-5u
Condit Round 3 (+1025) -.25u
Condit Round 4 (+1450) -.5u
Condit Round 5 (+1850) -.5u
Condit/Maia Draw (+7000) -.5u

Hedge(s):
Maia Decision (+250) -1u
Maia Submission (+430) +4.3u
Maia Round 1 (+1200) +6u
Maia Round 2 (+1300) -.5u
Maia Round 3 (+1600) -.25u
Maia Split/Majority Decision (+790) -.5u

Result: Demian Maia Round 1 Submission
Fight: +2.3u
Card: +13.4575u

Straight Parlays:
Sam Alvey/Chad Laprise (+109) +1.09u
Kyle Bochniak/Alessio Di Chirico (+137) +1.37u

Fights: +2.46u
Card: +15.9175u

Prop Parlays:
Alessio Di Chirico -3.5/Mickey Gall (+116) -1u
Alvey and Casey Go Distance/Condit -5.5 (+438) -.5u
Casey Decision/Condit -5.5 (+738) -.25u
Laprise Decision/Alvey ITD/VanZant Decision (+1000) -.5u
Campbell Decision/Di Chirico Decision (+1225) -.5u
Miller Decision/Pettis KO (+1236) -.5u
Gouti ITD/Pettis Round 1 (+2000) -.25u
Miller Decision/Condit Decision (+2529) -.25u
Di Chirico Round 2/Alvey Round 2 (+3063) -.125u
Alvey Round 3/VanZant Round 3 (+9400) -.125u

Added:
Oliveira and Pettis Go Distance/Maia ITD (+934) -.25u

Fights: -4.25u
Card: +11.6675u

Full Card Props:
Fights to end in KO/TKO Over 3.5 (+130) +1.3u
No Fights end in submission (+634) -.5u

Fights: +.8u
Card: +12.4675u

Live Betting:
Miller (+240) +1.2u
VanZant (+100) +.5u

Fights: +1.7u
Final Card Profit: +14.1675u

Congrats. But man, you have so many bets in one event, this works longterm? what your result in 2016?

[Thrilla]

- After UFC on FOX 21, MMA Fighting's E. Casey Leydon, Chuck Mindenhall and Esther Lin break down Saturday's event.

[Demonata]

The next card is shit.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Congrats. But man, you have so many bets in one event, this works longterm? what your result in 2016?

Here's what I have since I've been cataloging my picks on the forum.

All UFC Results:
UFC Fight Night Maia vs. Condit = +14.1675u
UFC 202 McGregor vs.Diaz = +4.415u
UFC Fight Night Rodriguez vs. Caceres = +5.2775u
UFC 201 Lawler vs. Woodley = +8.85u
UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Shevchenko = +4.645u
Total UFC Profit/Loss: +37.355u

My style is to narrow down each fight to the most likely/best value outcomes and hedge in a way that makes me unlikely to lose my ass on any fight. For the first half of the card I didn't win much of anything, but I also didn't lose over 1u even when my pick was wrong. My bigger plays on Alvey and Miller hit the mark and the prop hedging I had in place allowed me to freeroll the last few fights.

For instance, going into Fight #9, I had a decent sized bet on Oliveira as well as No Fights End in Submission (+634). I felt KO/TKO was Pettis' most likely path to victory, and had a prop hedge of Miller Decision/Pettis KO (+1236) .5u live as well. Since the line moved drastically in my favor on Pettis Sub and his last two victories were by sub I put down .75u on Pettis Sub which ended up cashing. I also added a parlay of Oliveira and Pettis Go Distance/Maia ITD which would guarantee that I cash at least one (but possibly two) of Oliveira, Pettis Sub, The Distance/Maia ITD, or No Subs, all for a decent profit. Being creative with the available betting options has allowed me to have good success in my capping thus far even though I am not experienced.