Josh Knows Ufc Fight Night 87: 05-08-16

**Deceptakhan** · 03-30-16, 06:13 PM

Love Tumenov, no faith in the gunnars jitz?

**JoshKnows46** · 03-30-16, 07:08 PM

Originally posted by Deceptakhan

Love Tumenov, no faith in the gunnars jitz?

Faith in Tumenovs takedown defense, maybe I'll hedge small on gunny sub, but maybe not, I give it below 10% on him being able to take down tumenov.

**JoshKnows46** · 03-30-16, 07:18 PM

Another brutal matchup for gunny, first Maia and now tumenov, someone in ufc managment must hate this guy.

**JIBBBY** · 03-30-16, 07:34 PM

Yeah, Gunnar Nelson really kinda sucks.. He's a jits guy that stuggles mightly to get fights to the ground.. Damien Maia took Gunnar to school in the last fight which I cashed in on of course..... Easy money...

**JoshKnows46** · 03-30-16, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Yeah, Gunnar Nelson really kinda sucks.. He's a jits guy that stuggles mightly to get fights to the ground.. Damien Maia took Gunnar to school in the last fight which I cashed in on of course..... Easy money...

Gunnar will prove to be a top 10 guy, he's very good, but he's just getting thrown to the wolves, two championship caliber guys in a row, two absolute monsters.

**JIBBBY** · 03-30-16, 08:01 PM

Teminov KO prop might be something to consider when it comes out for best playable odds... Gunnar by sub with the hedge if ya wanna play it safe.. Doubt this fight goes the distance.. I think Gunnar gets dropped in this one..

**UncleChael** · 03-30-16, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Yeah, Gunnar Nelson really kinda sucks.. He's a jits guy that stuggles mightly to get fights to the ground.. Damien Maia took Gunnar to school in the last fight which I cashed in on of course..... Easy money...

Yes Jibbs. We all get it, you hit on Maia..

**JoshKnows46** · 03-30-16, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Teminov KO prop might be something to consider when it comes out for best playable odds... Gunnar by sub with the hedge if ya wanna play it safe.. Doubt this fight goes the distance.. I think Gunnar gets dropped in this one..

I like tumenov by dec, will be less aggresive because he's fighting someone that wants him on the ground and he needs to be ready to defend, from what ive seen, Gunnar has a fantastic chin, and he also has a more defensive karate style, and tumenov dec will likely pay much better than the ko prop, which is also possible, but a long drawn out beating for a tumenov dec is more probable, as story couldn't finish him in 5 rounds and he took a beating from maia, he's never been finished by ko or sub, not saying tumenov can't ko him because he can, but the higher paying and more probable prop will be tumenov dec. The safest bet to make is tumenov straight, and you'll want to bet it as soon as possible, while it's still at a very reasonable low price, it will be over -200 by fight time.

**JIBBBY** · 03-30-16, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by JoshKnows46

I like tumenov by dec, will be less aggresive because he's fighting someone that wants him on the ground and he needs to be ready to defend, from what ive seen, Gunnar has a fantastic chin, and he also has a more defensive karate style, and tumenov dec will likely pay much better than the ko prop, which is also possible, but a long drawn out beating for a tumenov dec is more probable, as story couldn't finish him in 5 rounds and he took a beating from maia, he's never been finished by ko or sub, not saying tumenov can't ko him because he can, but the higher paying and more probable prop will be tumenov dec. The safest bet to make is tumenov straight, and you'll want to bet it as soon as possible, while it's still at a very reasonable low price, it will be over -200 by fight time.

Does Gunnar have an excellent chin? I don't think Gunnar Nelson has been really tested in that area yet. Rick Story was probably the stongest striker he's fought to date and he fights like a stiff robot.. All other strikers he got down and sub'd out early on.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gunnar-Nelson-25246

If Albert keeps it standing for the entire fight like you say I think he will he connect and rock Gunnar on the chin at some point.. Pounds him out the ground then after... Call it a gut feeling.. 11 of Termonovs 17 wins have come by way of KO.. He recently knocked out Jouban and I don't think Gunnar Nelson is any tougher standing then Jouban..

**JoshKnows46** · 03-30-16, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Does Gunnar have an excellent chin? I don't think Gunnar Nelson has been really tested in that area yet. Rick Story was probably the stongest striker he's fought to date and he fights like a stiff robot.. All other strikers he got down and sub'd out early on.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gunnar-Nelson-25246

If Albert keeps it standing for the entire fight like you say I think he will he connect and rock Gunnar on the chin at some point.. Pounds him out the ground then after... Call it a gut feeling.. 11 of Termonovs 17 wins have come by way of KO.. He recently knocked out Jouban and I don't think Gunnar Nelson is any tougher standing then Jouban..

Jouban has far better striking than Gunnar, thats not what i'm arguing here, Gunnar has a world class chin, and his striking is more defensive based then Jouban, karate is based around not getting hit, think machida.... Jouban doesn't have a very good chin, i;d say his chin is average to poor, but he usually shows great recovery time, tumenov is a great finisher when he has guys hurt....watch the beating gunnar recieved for 3 rounds against maia if you dont think he has a great chin, maia was in full mount and bak mount most of that fight. jouban is a terrible comparison, becuase thats a completely diffrent match-up, Jouban comes to strike, gunnar is gonna be looking to set up takedowns, which gives a added dimension to his game for tum to worry about, that slows down tumenovs aggression, you can bet the ko if you want, its def possible but dec victory is the most probable and it will pay better, i"ll be on the straight play for $3000-$4500, Tumenov dec for $250-$350, and $50-$100 on Tumenov 3rd round finish.

**JoshKnows46** · 03-30-16, 10:16 PM

just added another $450 on tumenov at -180....get on this early boys, its gonna continue to rise, anything under -350 has value.

**JIBBBY** · 03-30-16, 10:35 PM

Well the straight bet is your best and safest play no doubt but you are almost paying 2-1 odds now and if the fight does go to the ground perhaps Gunnar can lock in something.. I hate betting those favorites at almost -200 odds and you know this Josh.. I like the props at +200 instead

GL though as the Termonov straight most certainly should hit, I may still play it straight as the favorite as well... Should cash for sure as I have almost zero confidence in Gunnar Nelson with this match up..

It's also hard to hedge with a Gunnar Nelson Sub prop when you are playing a -200 straight going the other way.. Those odds often take hedging right out of the mix...

**JoshKnows46** · 03-30-16, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Well the straight bet is your best and safest play no doubt but you are almost paying 2-1 odds now and if the fight does go to the ground perhaps Gunnar can lock in something.. I hate betting those favorites at almost -200 odds and you know this Josh.. I like the props at +200 instead

GL though as the Termonov straight most certainly should hit, I may still play it straight as the favorite as well... Should cash for sure as I have almost zero confidence in Gunnar Nelson with this match up..

It's also hard to hedge with a Gunnar Nelson Sub prop when you are playing a -200 straight going the other way.. Those odds often take hedging right out of the mix...

majority of my money so far is on -140/-143/-150...if you hate paying -200, you need to bet sooner. i'm sure i'll have a large amount on over -200 as well, thats still 150 points of value as i have the line at -350.....you better get on the straight play soon, your prop odds will be just as shit by the time they come out, because this line is gonna keep going up, and tum has 2 clear paths to victory, so you dont want to have to pick between the two. bet it now jibs....no real reason to hedge this fight, the sub by gunny is such a low probability.

**JoshKnows46** · 03-30-16, 10:52 PM

tum straight would have to rise to around -280, for the gunner sub to be worth my wild, and you'll also have to bet that as soon as it comes out, becuase everyone that bets gunny will be betting that prop, so it will get quickly beatin down as well.....getting lines you like early is vital to be successful at this, you need to work on that part of your game, waiting on this fight to make your bets, isnt gonna work out well. you have to know which match-ups to wait on, and which match ups to hit early.

**CaptChaos145** · 03-31-16, 07:28 AM

I'm pretty surprised at the comments. Albert hasn't fought anyone in the UFC like Gunnar. Albert isn't a proficient grappler so when Gunnar takes him down Albert will tire.
Gunnar takes most guys down.
What grappler has Tumenov faced to lead anyone to believe his TD defense will hold up?
And using Maia for any kind of comparison is useless. Maia has a totally different style than Albert - complete opposites.
Gunnar is a live dog here.

**JoshKnows46** · 03-31-16, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

I'm pretty surprised at the comments. Albert hasn't fought anyone in the UFC like Gunnar. Albert isn't a proficient grappler so when Gunnar takes him down Albert will tire.
Gunnar takes most guys down.
What grappler has Tumenov faced to lead anyone to believe his TD defense will hold up?
And using Maia for any kind of comparison is useless. Maia has a totally different style than Albert - complete opposites.
Gunnar is a live dog here.

Gunnar has a very low 10 percent chance of getting this down even once.. I wasn't using Maia as a comparison, I was using that fight to show gunnars great chin, explain to jibby why tumenov will win by dec and not ko, for prop betting purposes, not one time did I compare Maia to tumenov, just to make that clear, tumenov presents a whole new set of problems, terrible TERRIBLE matchup for gunnar....you can bet Gunnar if you want, but your wasting you're money lol I'm serious, just flush it down the toilet..

**JIBBBY** · 03-31-16, 11:02 AM

Did I mention I won alot of money betting on Demien Maia

.. Unc?..

Yeah one take down on Tumenov and the fight becomes instantly interesting... Temenov is a relatively tall fighter, so maybe he does get taken down at some point.

Tumenov is a striking based fighter, all this creditials point to his boxing and hand to hand combat skills.. He doesn't have much to show for his ground skills that's for sure..

So it all comes down to can Gunnar Nelson take down Tumenov and can he keep him there?

**bjpenn85** · 03-31-16, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Did I mention I won alot of money betting on Demien Maia

.. Unc?..

Yeah one take down on Tumenov and the fight becomes instantly interesting... Temenov is a relatively tall fighter, so maybe he does get taken down at some point.

Tumenov is a striking based fighter, all this creditials point to his boxing and hand to hand combat skills.. He doesn't have much to show for his ground skills that's for sure..

So it all comes down to can Gunnar Nelson take down Tumenov and can he keep him there?

Look up a couple of tumenov fights, what do you think about his tdd, fightmetric has it listed, 83%. Lapsley and mousouke are the only two who tried though. But Tumenov is agile and athletic, nelson probably cant take him down often, but once? Maybe.

Watch, and let me know what you think!

**JIBBBY** · 03-31-16, 11:54 AM

Not much footage on Tumenov and his ground BJPenn.. He is very athletic and seems hard to take down... I've watched his last few fights on replay but didn't go farther back then that... I think Gunnar Nelson will have trouble taking him down and I think Tumenov is athletic enough to get back up if taken down..

Tumenov strengths are in his standup.. He's gonna hurt Gunnar standing I think... Gunnar better watch out for those head kicks that's for sure as he does like to fight with his hands down...

**PaperTrail07** · 03-31-16, 12:25 PM

Tumenov will roll gunn lol

**PaperTrail07** · 03-31-16, 12:28 PM

Agree....tumenov is another level of skill....

Originally posted by JoshKnows46

Gunnar has a very low 10 percent chance of getting this down even once.. I wasn't using Maia as a comparison, I was using that fight to show gunnars great chin, explain to jibby why tumenov will win by dec and not ko, for prop betting purposes, not one time did I compare Maia to tumenov, just to make that clear, tumenov presents a whole new set of problems, terrible TERRIBLE matchup for gunnar....you can bet Gunnar if you want, but your wasting you're money lol I'm serious, just flush it down the toilet..

**CaptChaos145** · 03-31-16, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Yeah, Gunnar Nelson really kinda sucks.. He's a jits guy that stuggles mightly to get fights to the ground.. Damien Maia took Gunnar to school in the last fight which I cashed in on of course..... Easy money...

Gunnar is good but he played Maia's game and he's not on Maia's level grappling.

Tumenov is a totally different matchup. He's a striker that wants no parts of the ground.

Look for Gunnar to dart in and out and time the shot or clinch. Tumenov will be more hesitant than usual cause he has not faced a grappler in the UFC that is close to Gunnar's grappling skills.

I think Gunnar will be able to take Tumenov down and implement his game plan.

**CaptChaos145** · 03-31-16, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by JoshKnows46

Jouban has far better striking than Gunnar, thats not what i'm arguing here, Gunnar has a world class chin, and his striking is more defensive based then Jouban, karate is based around not getting hit, think machida.... Jouban doesn't have a very good chin, i;d say his chin is average to poor, but he usually shows great recovery time, tumenov is a great finisher when he has guys hurt....watch the beating gunnar recieved for 3 rounds against maia if you dont think he has a great chin, maia was in full mount and bak mount most of that fight. jouban is a terrible comparison, becuase thats a completely diffrent match-up, Jouban comes to strike, gunnar is gonna be looking to set up takedowns, which gives a added dimension to his game for tum to worry about, that slows down tumenovs aggression, you can bet the ko if you want, its def possible but dec victory is the most probable and it will pay better, i"ll be on the straight play for $3000-$4500, Tumenov dec for $250-$350, and $50-$100 on Tumenov 3rd round finish.

Gunnar was able to take the punishment but to say his chin was tested against Maia is not accurate. There's a reason why we see very few KO's with G & P. There's not enough leverage to deliver really hard shots. Plus Maia's striking power is not his strong suit.

**JoshKnows46** · 03-31-16, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Gunnar was able to take the punishment but to say his chin was tested against Maia is not accurate. There's a reason why we see very few KO's with G & P. There's not enough leverage to deliver really hard shots. Plus Maia's striking power is not his strong suit.

I believe he has a good chin from what i've seen. Could be wrong, but thats why the majority of my bet is will be straight, but I'll have a unit on him sustaining another beating to a easy tumenov dec.

**CaptChaos145** · 03-31-16, 05:24 PM

Interesting to note... Gunnar has 10 submission wins in his career. Tumenov's last 4 opponents have a combined 67 pro fights with only 6 submissions wins total.

We've never seen Tumenov against a good grappler YET!

**mirinquads** · 03-31-16, 05:43 PM

Gunnar displayed an excellent chin against Story. Was sure some of those shots where gonna put him out cold.

**JIBBBY** · 03-31-16, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by CaptChaos145

Interesting to note... Gunnar has 10 submission wins in his career. Tumenov's last 4 opponents have a combined 67 pro fights with only 6 submissions wins total.

We've never seen Tumenov against a good grappler YET!

Yep, Tumenov has faced basically all strikers and beat them at their strengths which is striking.. Like Alan Jouban for example.. That puts Turmenov at an elite striking level.. Gunnar is far better on the ground as one would think and Temenov will be far better standing..

So if the fight stays standing it will be Tumenov's to win.. I don't think Gunnar has the take downs or pure wrestling to get or keep Tumenov down to work his jits.. We will see though..

**Mxs1332** · 03-31-16, 08:48 PM

Any idea on who Gunnar trains with?

**JoshKnows46** · 03-31-16, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by Mxs1332

Any idea on who Gunnar trains with?

Mcgregors camp, touch butt in the park crew.

**Mxs1332** · 03-31-16, 08:52 PM

Haha well played Josh. Does he believe in movement coaches as well? Tumenov all day boys

**JoshKnows46** · 03-31-16, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by Mxs1332

Haha well played Josh. Does he believe in movement coaches as well? Tumenov all day boys

yea, he does Ido Portal, that's him in the back, with the gray and black long sleeve, skipping..

**Mxs1332** · 03-31-16, 09:17 PM

Excellent. Feeling better about +5 units on Tumenov already.

Really nice find btw. They look like school girls dancing before the big game

**JoshKnows46** · 03-31-16, 09:19 PM

**JIBBBY** · 03-31-16, 09:27 PM

^^ Gayest shit I've ever seen.. Are you kidding me?

No wonder why both McGregor and Gunnar Nelson are losing fights now.. It all makes perfect sense.