UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz (January 17, 2016)

[Deceptakhan]

great faking point!

[JIBBBY]

Only thing I would say about Tim's losses are that they were against some tough competition and studs. I think Herman is very underrated when he's focused. Just think Timmay is a bad match up for him. Think the odds are pretty fair where they are just because Tim does have ways to lose this fight. Cardio is much better a MW though. He seemed out of shape a lot at LW.

True...

Let's just say it's all about how dedicated and or washed up Timmy Boetsch is and how dialed in and trained up is Ed Short fuse?.. I look at it this way, both these guys should probably be in Bellator right now but they both are known for going for the KO's and for being very exciting fighters... Paying fans like to see this so the KO is coming in this one or someone or both are sent packing.

If Boetch tries to grapple fock EH and grind out a decision, the crowd will start boo'ing, Dana White will get pissed off and both will get their walking papers..

At +190 I had to try Ed Short Can Herman straight.. Both like to clinch up and dirty box so it's gonna be interesting to see who lands the KO upper cut first?

[UncleChael]

True...

Let's just say it's all about how dedicated and or washed up Timmy Boetsch is and how dialed in and trained up is Ed Short fuse?.. I look at it this way, both these guys should probable be in Bellator right now but they both are known for going for the KO's in other words... Paying fans like to see this so the KO is coming in this one or someone or both are sent packing.

If Boetch tries to grapple fock EH and grind out a decision, the crowd will start boo'ing, Dana White will get pissed off and both will get their walking papers..

At +190 I had to try Ed Short Can Herman straight.. Both like the clinch up and dirty box so that's gonna be interesting to see who lands the KO upper cut first?

I like it.

[JIBBBY]

THE EVENT WRITE UPS!!!

- Prelims part 1 - http://www.mmamania.com/2016/1/11/10...pt1-boston-mma

- Prelims part 2 - http://www.mmamania.com/2016/1/12/10...pt2-boston-mma

Combat press - http://combatpress.com/2016/01/toe-t...d-predictions/

Fansided - http://fansided.com/2016/01/12/ufc-f...w-predictions/

Forgot to include Bleacher report.. Ooops They actually don't have an event write up this go around.. Bleacher report going down hill... They do have a decent write up on the main event..

BR - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-gold-standard

[bjpenn85]

Forgot to include Bleacher report.. Ooops They actually don't have an event write up this go around.. Bleacher report going down hill... They do have a decent write up on the main event..

BR - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-gold-standard

This is more or less the equivalent of the link i posted, as wyman is the co host of heavy hands Solid breakdown. Both Wyman and Conor sides with Joshknows. And after listening to the podcast, im tempting to say that we probably going to be witness to another big night for Josh. I just cant see how Cruz can win unless he has changed his whole attitude towards fighting.

[JoshKnows46]

Faber also agrees with me that it will be killashaw by ko, for what it's worth.

[JIBBBY]

Well I'm going the other way 100% with Cruz and Pettis as I believe both will be winners... I think Josh has those fights capped wrong this go around.

Let's see who has these nailed down??? I'm feeling pretty confident and I don't say that often.

You're going down Joshy pal.. 2 bet points a day coming up for 30 days.. Pettis and Cruz for the win!!!! Cash it!!!

$250.00

$312.50

Pending

1/17/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Dominick Cruz +125* <small>vs</small> T.J. Dillashaw

$145.50

$181.90

Pending

1/17/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1109 Pettis wins inside distance +125* <small>vs</small> Not Pettis inside distance

[JoshKnows46]

Well I'm going the other way 100% with Cruz and Pettis and I believe both will be winners... I think Josh has those fights capped wrong this go around.

Let's see who nails these down those 2 fights??? I'm feeling pretty confident and I don't say that often.

You're going down Joshy pal.. 2 bet points a day coming up for 30 days.. Pettis and Cruz for the win!!!! Cash it!!!

Ur really going out on a limp on pettis huh, lmao I got him favored as well, no value in a pettis bet however at current odds, it's a close Fight, alot closer then thecruz fight, pettis should be favored by 170, terrible bet even if you win. Both cruz and pettis are horrible bets,worse bets you could make on the card as a whole.

[JoshKnows46]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=b8-Ub1t0s24

[JIBBBY]

Ur really going out on a limp no value in a pettis

There is value with Pettis winning inside the distance at +125...

[JoshKnows46]

There is value with Pettis winning inside the distance at +125...

Not at all, this is a close fight that will go the distance, I'm only risking. 250 to win 1250, your risking let's say 250 to win 300, which is less return on the much lower probability outcome. If anything, u should have bet pettis by dec, or left the side alone and bet the distance prop over, neither guy is stopping the other.

[JIBBBY]

Not at all, this is a close fight that will go the distance, I'm only risking. 250 to win 1250, your risking let's say 250 to win 300, which is less return on the much lower probability outcome. If anything, u should have bet pettis by dec, or left the side alone and bet the distance prop over, neither guy is stopping the other.

Pettis by submission is a real possibility or if he lands one of those highlight flying head kicks of his.. I'm thinking this fight doesn't go the distance myself.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Pettis-26627

Pettis has only gone to decision 1 time in his last 5 fights.. That was against RDA, Eddie Alvarez is not RDA.. Pettis is a finisher.. Eddie Alvarez is tough though as 3 of his last 6 fights have gone to decision.. So he's 50/50..

Chances are Pettis wins ITD and at plus odds I had to try it..

[JIBBBY]

Faber also agrees with me that it will be killashaw by ko, for what it's worth.

Gee ya think so?..LOL...

Faber trained will Dillashaw for years at the same camp, what do you expect him to say?

[JIBBBY]

Not at all, this is a close fight that will go the distance, I'm only risking. 250 to win 1250, your risking let's say 250 to win 300, which is less return on the much lower probability outcome. If anything, u should have bet pettis by dec, or left the side alone and bet the distance prop over, neither guy is stopping the other.

Possible decision win but not probable.. How did you get 250 to win 1250? Current prop odds are +202.. I can't imagine the odds dropped from 5-1 to now 2-1 even if you got in early...Hmmm?

If you did get that at 5-1 at some point then yep it's worth a shot..

1111 Pettis wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_35" name="radiox" type="radio">+202

or

1103 Alvarez / Pettis goes 3 round distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_31" name="radiox" type="radio">-105

I'd say if anyone wants to take a chance on EA.. This prop shows some value I believe.. Don't think Eddie is gonna win by decision against Pettis anyways.. Will try this as a small hedge myself..

1105 Alvarez wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_32" name="radiox" type="radio">+984

[JoshKnows46]

Gee ya think so?..LOL...

Faber trained will Dillashaw for years at the same camp, what do you expect him to say?

Faber hates dillashaw now, so there's that

[JoshKnows46]

Possible decision win but not probable.. How did you get 250 to win 1250? Current prop odds are +202.. I can't imagine the odds dropped from 5-1 to now 2-1 even if you got in early...Hmmm?

If you did get that at 5-1 at some point then yep it's worth a shot..

1111 Pettis wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_35" name="radiox" type="radio">+202

or

1103 Alvarez / Pettis goes 3 round distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_31" name="radiox" type="radio">-105

I'd say if anyone wants to take a chance on EA.. This prop shows some value I believe.. Don't think Eddie is gonna win by decision against Pettis anyways.. Will try this as a small hedge myself..

1105 Alvarez wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_32" name="radiox" type="radio">+984

By dec at 500,, pettis has never been finished, alverez has better wrestlan.

[Killer_Demo]

Only play for me

Travis Browne -150. 2 units

[JIBBBY]

Only play for me

Travis Browne -150. 2 units

GL killa!! Only play, really? Come on man!!!

Meat head does has a solid chin and is damn hard to knock out though.. I wonder how Travis Browne can with this fight? By decision maybe?

[JIBBBY]

By dec at 500,, pettis has never been finished, alverez has better wrestlan.

Pettis has a better sub game and he's never been controlled by a wrestler.. This fight stays standing and Pettis either gets the ko finish or locks in one of those quick sub chokes during a grappling exchange.....

Pettis has never been finished, good point Josh and that's why the odds are +1000 for the Eddie ITD prop.. Eddie does have 14 wins by way of Ko, first time for everything, but i honestly don't think Eddie can finish Pettis or win by decision.. I was thinking of that EA ITD hedge but probably won't play it.. Just was thinking about it earlier because of the crazy +1000 odds..

May still throw 10 bucks down to win 100 just for giggles and kicks .. Game time decision..

[kmdubya]

Pettis has a better sub game and he's never been controlled by a wrestler.. This fight stays standing and Pettis either gets the ko finish or locks in one of those quick sub chokes during a grappling exchange.....

Pettis has never been finished, good point Josh and that's why the odds are +1000 for the Eddie ITD prop.. First time for everything, but i honestly don't think Eddie can finish Pettis or win by decision.. I was thinking of that EA ITD hedge but probably won't play it.. Just was thinking about it earlier because of the crazy +1000 odds..

May still throw 10 bucks down to win 100 just for giggles and kicks .. Game time decision..

Only thing that scares me is Pettis is sometimes inconsistent. He just fights so little due to injury, sometimes I just never know what version is going to show up.

His skill level is off the charts compared to Eddie. I just really hope Pettis doesn't become a "what if" type fighter with everything that happens to him.

[kmdubya]

Faber hates dillashaw now, so there's that

Yeah, but Faber hates Cruz even more.

[getlucky2win]

Pettis has a better sub game and he's never been controlled by a wrestler.. This fight stays standing and Pettis either gets the ko finish or locks in one of those quick sub chokes during a grappling exchange...

guida would disagree. cmon jibz

[Killer_Demo]

GL killa!! Only play, really? Come on man!!!

Meat head does has a solid chin and is damn hard to knock out though.. I wonder how Travis Browne can with this fight? By decision maybe?

Beat the soul out of him like he did to brendan schaub, someone post the gif

[JIBBBY]

Only thing that scares me is Pettis is sometimes inconsistent. He just fights so little due to injury, sometimes I just never know what version is going to show up.

His skill level is off the charts compared to Eddie. I just really hope Pettis doesn't become a "what if" type fighter with everything that happens to him.

I agree, but Pettis is coming off that last decision loss to RDA so you gotta think we're gonna see the best Pettis in the cage in this next rebound fight.. I think we see the real "SHOWTIME" Pettis in this one and a dominate performance.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Pettis-26627

I also remember Anthony Pettis coming off his first loss by decision to Bart Palaszewski and absolutely destroyed a younger and then game Danny Castillo in round 1 in that rebound fight.. Eddie Alvarez is the same type of fighter that Danny Castillo is... So this is basically a repeat situation here for Pettis from 4 years ago.. See where I'm getting at? Pettis should rebound well like he did before.. Eddie is in trouble... Pettis by early KO is my thinking if history repeats itself...

[JIBBBY]

Beat the soul out of him like he did to brendan schaub, someone post the gif

Yep, but everyone knocks out Brendan Schaub..

Travis Browne vs Brendan Shiit.



Big Country putting out BS



Lastly a rude ko of Brendan Shaub courtesy of Ben Roth...

[JIBBBY]

guida would disagree. cmon jibz

Guida did control Pettis on the ground absolutely, I stand corrected. Eddie Alvarez can't grind and wrestle like an in prime Clay Guida though.. Eddie is a stand up fighter, 14 wins by KO.. Thanks for the correction..

Yep, Pettis lost that fight to Guida by decision but rebounded in the next fight against lil Heathen..



Eddie Alvarez getting punked by Nick Thompson...

Eddie Alvarez vs. Nick Thompson (2007)

[Unwritten Law]

Hopefully some great NFL action before this UFC show. Looking to build up the bankroll to lay on Dominick Cruz. So far leans on Cruz, Mitrione, Pettis, Trinaldo, Latifi.

[Killer_Demo]

Meathead needs to stop soon. I watched interview with ariel helwani today and he was stammering pretty bad with his words. Heavyweight punches to the dome will do that to ya.

[TPowell]

Not sure how anyone can be backing Browne right now. The guy is training at one of the worst clubs in the history of MMA and with all the Ronda BS that has been going on, I'm sure he's mentally drained.

[Unwritten Law]

Besides cleaning the clock out of Schaub and Barnett, Hapa really hasn't impressed. His lucky comeback by Overeem, which he would lose if they had a rematch, was really that....kinda lucky Overeem had a terrible fight IQ that night.

Meathead was KO'd once vs Big Country. Both pack hard punches but I think Meathead is a bit faster and can put Hapa's lights out like what Arlovski did. Chin might be semi-shot after taking the beatings from Werdum and KO'd by The Pit Bull. Will be a tough fight for Rousey to watch.

[JIBBBY]

^^Outside chance Hapa gets a decision or sub win but I doubt it.. Meat Head had 3 of his last 4 fights end by way of 1st round KO. Against heavy hitters he got the 3 wins. You gotta think the 37 year old Meat could possibly drop 33 year old Hapa in this one early on.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Matt-Mitrione-49519

Tough fight to get a read on IMO. Safe to say it ends in a KO one way or the other early on if I had to guess. That doesn't help much.. Pick a prop any prop? Lol...

1233 Browne wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_66" size="4"> +128

1229 Mitrione wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_64" size="4"> +174

I've got my eye on this prop below as I don't think this one gets out of the 1st round.. Both will stand and trade early on and someone should get dropped while both are fresh...

1238 Fight won’t start round 2

<input id="editx" name="M2_68" size="4"> -132

[mirinquads]

Meathead is a more polished striker, and Browne isn't anything special, but has a solid chin and is WAY better on the ground, plus Meatheads fight IQ is meathead level. You remember that takedown into a gulliotine against Rothwell? Yeah..

[Unwritten Law]

Meathead won't expect to get tapped so he won't be protecting his neck. Hapa could land a heavy counter in an exchange that could hurt him. If Meathead keeps the pressure, he should put Hapa away and pounce - Black Beast style.

[terpkeg]

I agree, but Pettis is coming off that last decision loss to RDA so you gotta think we're gonna see the best Pettis in the cage in this next rebound fight.. I think we see the real "SHOWTIME" Pettis in this one and a dominate performance.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Pettis-26627

I also remember Anthony Pettis coming off his first loss by decision to Bart Palaszewski and absolutely destroyed a younger and then game Danny Castillo in round 1 in that rebound fight.. Eddie Alvarez is the same type of fighter that Danny Castillo is... So this is basically a repeat situation here for Pettis from 4 years ago.. See where I'm getting at? Pettis should rebound well like he did before.. Eddie is in trouble... Pettis by early KO is my thinking if history repeats itself...

[JoshKnows46]

Meathead is a more polished striker, and Browne isn't anything special, but has a solid chin and is WAY better on the ground, plus Meatheads fight IQ is meathead level. You remember that takedown into a gulliotine against Rothwell? Yeah..

Exactly. It's gonna be Browne sub which is at plus 600, WOW, OR its gonna be meathead Ko. Either meathead finishes is early or he makes a mistake early, so I see no possible way it goes to the judges, either Browne takes it down or Meathead does, both guys are stupid, so either Browne is stupid enough to try to strike or Meathead is stupid enough to shoot for a takedown, I like Browne by sub at plus 600, with meathead by ko as a hedge. Browne sub is the most likely outcome, and it's plus 600.