UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz (January 17, 2016)

[TPowell]

Confused as to how Elvis Mutapcic is a favorite over Francimar Barroso. Mutapcic fights at 185, has been fighting lower level competition and is taking the fight on short notice. Barroso might have an advantage being a natural 205'er. Luke Sanders could be another one. Luke is a natural 135'er moving up on late notice to fight Maximo Blanco at 145.

Unless Barroso is fighting injured, it'll be very interesting to see how things pan out.



As far as I know, they don't do much grappling, wrestling or submisssion training at Glendale Fight Club under Edmond Tarverdyan. That could also be the reason Jake Ellenberger got subbed so easily by Kelvin Gastelum when he was training there. If Browne wins via sub, it won't be because his sub skills are sharp. It would be more of a lucky break.

Elvis is the better technical fighter. Barroso is TERRIBLE. His only path to victory is clinching against the cage and bullying Mutapcic. Sanders isn't a natural 135'er. He and Blanco are the same height, he was just a monster at 135

[TPowell]

We didn't discuss this fight - I got Wade by decision -110 and hedged Baghdad ITD at +558... I'm watching football and don't have time to explain in depth.. Most likely pathway to victory for both fighters are those props..

In a nut shell - Wade will grind out a win most likely as he's a decision machine, no KO threat.. Oh and the French man Baghdad has a 80% finishing rate in all his pro fights or he loses by KO or decision.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mehdi-Baghdad-41993



Chris
Wade
vs
Mehdi
Baghdad
"The Sultan"

USA
Country
FRANCE

10-1-0
Record
11-2-0

0%
KO/TKO
73%

30%
SUB
27%

70%
DEC
0%

70 in
Height
73 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

70 in
Reach
75 in

40 in
Leg Reach
40 in

Significant Strikes

2.53
Landed per minute
000

64.23%
Accuracy
000%

1.79
Absorbed P/M
000

57.89%
Defense
000%

Grappling

4.33
Takedown Average
000

52.94%
Takedown Accuracy
000%

100%
Takedowns Defended
000%

0.48
Submission Average
000

Wade is a threat to sub him though. The guy is French for god sakes. I'm still considering Wade by decision though

[JoshKnows46]

I'm on Browne pretty big but judging by Mittrione's effort in his last fight....he may turtle up and quit from the first jab. It might not last long enough for a sub

Possibility, but considering meatheads chin,power and athletism, it's more likely browne gets kod, or Meathead shoots for a takedown and gets sub or browne is getting beat in the stand up and he shoots for a takedown, it's more likely browne subs meathead then it is it ko's him. Only invested small in the fight, I lose nothing if meathead gets the ko, cus I hedged to cover my browne sub prop. If meathead turtles up,I'm also on the under 1.5 Rounds so I'll make a profit either way, but sub will net me 6 times my money plus the under money and it's the most probable outcome based on what we know.

[BELM0NT]

Happy slappy Bel..

How old are ya pal? I just saw 34.. Good age...

Thanks jibbs, yes 34 and I can't complain. Life is good. I got all the important things in life.

[JIBBBY]

Wade is a threat to sub him though. The guy is French for god sakes. I'm still considering Wade by decision though

Slight chance I won't argue that.. I'm not really seeing it though.. He is French and you do make a good point.. lol ..

He's a scrappy french man though and has never been sub'd out in any of his pro fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mehdi-Baghdad-41993

I also don't think he's ever been tested by a decent submission guy on the mat yet and at the UFC level either..

There is always some risk involved with the double sided prop bets, I just try to keep it at a minimal or I don't bet it..

[Sanity Check]

Elvis is the better technical fighter. Barroso is TERRIBLE. His only path to victory is clinching against the cage and bullying Mutapcic. Sanders isn't a natural 135'er. He and Blanco are the same height, he was just a monster at 135

Well, we are about to find out. I got Barroso small.

Sanders and Blanco looked about the same size during weigh ins. If Sanders is a natural 135'er, Blanco could be much bigger when they actually fight. That could be the difference.

[TPowell]

just locked in Mutapcic small at -165 actually

[JIBBBY]

Elvis here for small in a parlay..

Watching football so I'll be absent until the Latifi fight..

[TPowell]

round 1 for Barroso probably. 2.5 mins of top control and a TD but he didn't do ANYTHING. Still probably 1-0 Barroso

[TPowell]

Mutapocic should be fired on the spot. Absolute garbage

[TPowell]

yep Elvis would be about an F as a Light Heavyweight. What a shitty fighter

[Sanity Check]

I have it 30-27 Barroso.

Let's see the judges rob him now.


edit: Alrite, judges! Needed that.

yep Elvis would be about an F as a Light Heavyweight. What a shitty fighter

Mustapcic might have fought below his ability.

That's what happens when you take fights on short notice and aren't sharp, though.

[richie360]

Nice call on Barrosa.

[spurginobili]

Need the under here

[TPowell]

I have it 30-27 Barroso.

Let's see the judges rob him now.


edit: Alrite, judges! Needed that.



Mustapcic might have fought below his ability.

That's what happens when you take fights on short notice and aren't sharp, though.

Not very impressive against a guy who has zero technical striking though. Barroso just loads up and wings punches. I can't see this guy sticking

[TPowell]

Font looks incredible. Gomez could cause trouble at 135 as well. Great at getting back to his feet. He just looks over-matched on the feet but he obviously has power

[Thrilla]

Guys I can bet UFC live in my bookie, so live tips are welcome

[JIBBBY]

So what am I missing? Not watching.... Sweating out this Denver Bronco football game..

My first big bet on this card is Latifi straight/hedge Oconnel by KO...

[BELM0NT]

Font had a impressive 2nd round finish

[Thrilla]

live odds Rosa @ -128 Bochniak +110, pick pls?

[JIBBBY]

Font had a impressive 2nd round finish

Thanks Bel.. I'm tuning in now.. One eye fooz and one eye on the UFC, while posting and a little drunk..

Got multitasking?

[JoshKnows46]

BOOM FONT finishes Gomez....EASY MONEY, this is gonna monster night for me. I fell it!!!

[FlipsideRM]

What time will fights start on FS1? Thanks

[BELM0NT]

I like the dog

[Thrilla]

live odds R3 start > Rosa @ -175

[BELM0NT]

Close fight

[Thrilla]

draw is my call

[FlipsideRM]

What time will fights start on FS1? Thanks

Anyone?

[TPowell]

no way Rosa won all 3 rounds LMAO

[JoshKnows46]

Next up I'm gonna make sum BIG money, I got O'connell straight and by KO, at +230 and +615 $300 on both plays......with a $150 hedge of latifi sub.....

[Thrilla]

Josh! you ow me money now

[JoshKnows46]

Wtf that was a horrible stoppage!!!...

[JIBBBY]

Bingo Latifi.. That was easy and fast

[Thrilla]

@ Joshknows

This is unnacceptable. You are in chase mode after the Condit loss.

I think will follow Jibby now for the mainevent. All in on Cruz. Bol

[JoshKnows46]

Josh! you ow me money now

If you follow all my plays for the amounts i bet them based on your unit amount, then you will be ahead at the end of the night, were u on my font/gomez fight wont go this distance bet?.....if so, you woudn't be sweating already.