anyone here tracking MLB rlm?

nrok2118 · 06-09-12, 08:08 PM

I started a thread a week ago with the intention of playing reverse line movements, using a 60/40 or greater public split. But I haven't been strict, and making some bets the night before trying to predict plays and get better value. This leads to plays that end up not meeting criteria. But I started hot so we'll see how it goes over time.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1745770-sharp-plays-day.html

I was doing this for hockey for a little bit doing well before getting sucked into a system and following that for the remainder of the season, so I don't know if that would have held up over time. A lot of haters on these boards against reverse line movement, but I like the idea and when you go on runs its very profitable playing mainly dogs.

jeffdane · 06-09-12, 08:12 PM

i got it tracked back to 05-27. very small sample, as far as days, but counting today there have been 75 plays. +20 units since the 27th. was wondering how it did earlier this year. im going to continue to track.

nrok2118 · 06-09-12, 08:14 PM

Whats your criteria and are you using ending lines or intial?

jeffdane · 06-09-12, 08:19 PM

closing lines. 44% or less. tampa bay prime example here. at least a 4 cent move.

6/9

07:15 PM

975 - TB - M Moore

976 - MIA - C Zambrano

+123
-131

+102
-108

nrok2118 · 06-09-12, 08:20 PM

You have a minimum amount of points it needs to move?

jeffdane · 06-09-12, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by nrok2118

You have a minimum amount of points it needs to move?

i have been using 4 cents.

problem with my backtracking is i am using pregame's sportsbook spy. they show an open line of 20 cents and closing of 10 cents so i need to guess a little.

jolmscheid · 06-09-12, 08:46 PM

Sbr odds has public percentages...might want to expand your filters to a larger move...

jolmscheid · 06-09-12, 08:46 PM

Have you been tracking rlm for nba at all?

jeffdane · 06-09-12, 08:49 PM

i follow it in all sports but tracking no.

in theory a larger move would make sense but what i have tracked so far has worked, which is why i asked this question.

jolmscheid · 06-09-12, 09:12 PM

And you use sportsbook spy?

jeffdane · 06-09-12, 09:56 PM

i use pregames sportsbook spy to backtrack. i dont have a sportsinsights account. if i am by a computer while the games are played, like today, then i use sportsinsights, via thespread.com

jolmscheid · 06-09-12, 10:42 PM

Thanks...I thought the spread doesn't offer that anymore. Ill have to look into that..