Jeff Grant: Wednesday MLB Insider Report - 5/30

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 09:58 AM

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
-Cleveland has been outscored 28-18 while losing three of five home games to Kansas City this season
-Royals SP Bruce Chen is 2-1 with a 1.44 ERA in four starts at Progressive Field
-Chen is 0-1 with a 9.39 ERA in two daytime starts
-The Royals are 5-3 in series deciding contests, winning four of their last six rubber games
-Since 2010, Chen is 14-8 with a 3.84 ERA in 31 games (27 starts) versus AL Central foes
-The Indians are 4-10 against left-handed starters this season
-Kansas City is averaging just 2.8 runs per game in Chen’s 10 starts this season
-Indians SP Jeanmar Gomez has gone 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA in six career starts against the Royals

Recommendation: Kansas City Royals +106

vaas187 · 05-30-12, 10:04 AM

the daytime start stat kills it for me.

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 10:19 AM

Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
-Twins SP Francisco Liriano went 0-5 with a 9.45 ERA in his first six starts
-Minnesota has an MLB-worst starting rotation ERA of 6.33
-Liriano is 2-3 with a 4.98 ERA in nine career starts against the Athletics
-The Twins could potentially pick up their first three-game sweep of 2012
-Oakland has scored 12 runs and hit .180 over its current seven-game losing streak
-Athletics SP Tyson Ross is 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA in five road starts
-The Twins were 0-29 when trailing after eight innings until last night’s win
-Ross is allowing hitters to bat .375 against him, the highest among all pitchers with a minimum of 40 innings. LHH are batting .425 against him

Recommendation: Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 4 Runs

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by vaas187

the daytime start stat kills it for me.

I agree - Chen's daytime numbers aren't the best this year, but his history at Progressive Field and the Indians being 20th in the league in daytime hitting (.239) gives me confidence.

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 10:55 AM

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
-Chicago has outscored opponents by a 61-27 margin during its seven-game win streak
-The White Sox haven’t swept the Rays at Tropicana Field since June 26-28, 2007
-Chicago is hitting .477 (31-for-65) with RISP over the last six games
-The White Sox have homered in 15 consecutive games
-White Sox pitchers own a 2.95 ERA on the road, second-lowest mark in baseball
-Tampa Bay’s 3.11 ERA as a staff this month is currently the best in club history for the month of May
-The Rays lead the AL with 45 stolen bases, while being second in the majors (Marlins, 60)
-Rays SP Alex Cobb has allowed just three HRs in 11 career MLB starts (64.2 IP)
-Cobb has limited opponents to a .188 average with RISP in his career
-Rays rank 24th in the league in daytime hitting (.231), while the White Sox are fourth (.273)

No Recommendation due to the OVER being 7-0 in the last two-plus seasons with umpire Mark Wegner behind the dish with a total of 7.5

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 11:25 AM

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
-San Diego will be closing out a 10-game road trip, while also playing the last of five consecutive day games. The Padres are also finishing out a stretch of playing 20 games in 20 days
-Cubs SP Ryan Dempster’s 2.14 ERA is the lowest for a pitcher winless in his first eight starts to a season since earned runs became an official stat in 1912
-Dempster is 0-9 with a 3.61 ERA in his last 17 starts, with the offense averaging 2.2 runs over that span
-The Padres rank last in the majors with a .191 average with RISP
-The Cubs are looking for their first sweep of the Padres since May 2009

Recommendation: San Diego Padres to Score First

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 12:52 PM

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
-Cincinnati has outscored opponents by a 56-34 margin in winning nine of its last 11 games
-Reds SP Johnny Cueto is 7-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last eight starts at PNC Park
-Pirates SP A.J. Burnett is 2-3 with a 5.75 ERA in seven career starts versus the REds, but hasn’t faced them since 2008
-Wednesday’s game marks the Reds’ 20th consecutive game without a day off
-Cueto’s 2.37 ERA is the third-best in the major leagues over the last two seasons (Kershaw, 2.21 and Verlander, 2.34)
-Burnett has posted a 1.27 ERA in four starts this year at PNC Park

Recommendation: Under 7

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 02:04 PM

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
-Marlins SP Josh Johnson is 7-0 with a 3.22 ERA in 14 career starts versus the Nationals
-Miami has won all five of Johnson’s starts this month, as he’s gone 2-0 with a 4.40 ERA
-Nationals SP Chien-Ming Wang has won both of his career starts against the Marlins (4.61 ERA)
-The Marlins are 6-3 on their current 10-game homestand

Recommendation: Over 8

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 02:30 PM

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
-Atlanta is batting .178 over its last nine games, with 10 of its 50 hits being HRs
-Cardinals SP Kyle Lohse has allowed four HRs in 62 innings this season, while surrendering just one on the road in six starts
-Braves SP Tim Hudson is 0-3 with a 7.09 ERA in his last six starts versus the Cardinals
-St. Louis is 3-9 in one-run games this year
-Current members of the Cardinals are hitting .329 against Hudson
-Dating back to 2007, the Cardinals have won 11 of their last 17 games at Turner Field

Recommendation: No play on the Cardinals due to Beltran being out of the lineup

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 03:36 PM

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
-Orioles SP Jason Hammel is 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA in seven career starts against the Blue Jays, as his team has won each of those contests
-Orioles OF Adam Jones has a 20-game hit streak, and is 8 for 20 with two HRs in his career against Morrow
-Toronto has won six of seven at home, hitting 14 HRs and averaging 6.7 runs
-The Orioles are 7-32 in their last 39 games at the Rogers Centre
-Hammel’s 0.49 homers allowed per nine innings is the sixth-lowest rate among AL starters
-Orioles bullpen has thrown the second-most innings (173.1 IP) in baseball (Royals, 186.0 IP)

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
-Boston is tied with the Chicago White Sox for the best record in baseball since May 11 at 13-5
-Red Sox DH David Ortiz is batting .478 during the team’s six-game home win streak over the Tigers
-The Tigers are 7-27 at Fenway Park since 2003
-Red Sox SP Jon Lester is 0-2 with a 4.62 ERA in four career starts versus the Tigers, with the club losing each of those efforts
-Tigers bullpen has a 1.24 ERA over its last 12 games

Recommendation: Over 5 - First Five Innings

bassfish · 05-30-12, 03:43 PM

Bos ov 5.5??????

My local has it at 5.5 +100 - any thoughts on the extra .5?

crackerjack · 05-30-12, 04:07 PM

Nice write ups! Thanks...

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 04:17 PM

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
-Phillies SP Cliff Lee has received 2.12 runs per nine innings, which is third-lowest in the majors
-Lee is 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA in five career starts versus the Mets
-Mets SP Dillon Gee is 2-1 with a 7.50 ERA in five career outings (four starts) versus the Phillies
-Philadelphia has not won consecutive series of at least three games in 2012
-Over the last 11 games, the Phillies bullpen has posted a 2.23 ERA and held opponents to a .202 batting average
-Lee has a 1.90 ERA since June 1 of last season, the lowest among MLB starts over that span
-The Mets are 3-0-2 in their last five home series
-In his two previous matchups with Lee, Gee is 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA
-Gee is 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA in five home starts

Recommendation: Over 7

Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies
-Colorado has won five consecutive home games against the Houston Astros, averaging 8.0 runs over that span
-Astros SP Lucas Harrell has posted the second-highest ground ball to fly ball ratio in the NL
-The Astros are 7-6 against left-handed starters
-Houston bullpen ranks third in the NL with a 3.04 ERA
-Harrell owns a 2-1 record and 2.08 ERA in three career starts versus NL West opponents

LoneStar · 05-30-12, 04:42 PM

Jeff thanks for taking the time for these write-ups I see you have just started post last couple days. Any chance you can post your record?

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 05:14 PM

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
-Rangers SP Derek Holland is 4-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last five starts against the Mariners
-Mariners SP Blake Beaven has a 1.71 ERA despite a 1-2 record in three career outings versus the Rangers, he was born in nearby Irving, TX
-Seattle is 3-12 in its last 15 games at Rangers Ball Park
-The Mariners are 6-8 against LHP this year, after going 13-28 in 2011
-The Rangers have lost consecutive games just twice in 2012
-Texas is 9-1-2 in home series versus AL West clubs since the start of last year

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
-Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw is 0-2 with an 8.74 ERA in three career starts versus the Brewers at Dodger Stadium
-Brewers OF Ryan Braun has hit safely in 11 of his 12 career games at Dodger Stadium
-Milwaukee is 4-1 against Los Angeles this year, no other team in baseball has more than two wins against the club
-Brewers SP Yovani Gallardo is 3-2 with a 2.24 ERA in eight other starts outside of pitching against the Cardinals
-Gallaro is 0-3 with a 6.54 ERA in five starts against the Dodgers
-Los Angeles came into last night’s game with a 3.08 team ERA in May, sitting just behind the Houston Astros (3.06)

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by bassfish

My local has it at 5.5 +100 - any thoughts on the extra .5?

You should now be able to get five

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 05:51 PM

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
-Giants SP Tim Lincecum has gone 0-3 with a 7.09 ERA in five May starts
-Lincecum has posted a 6.85 ERA in losing four straight outings to the Diamondbacks
-Diamondbacks SP Ian Kennedy is 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in 11 starts against the Giants
-Giants OF Melky Cabrera is batting .435 in May (50-for-115)
-Kennedy is 0-5 with a 6.00 ERA this month

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
-Feel free in reading my preview on this game

Jeff Grant · 05-30-12, 10:11 PM

Originally posted by LoneStar

Jeff thanks for taking the time for these write-ups I see you have just started post last couple days. Any chance you can post your record?

LoneStar,

Not too concerned about posting records - basically came on board to become a key voice in sports betting here in Las Vegas.

Hope to make everyone some money, and a smarter bettor each day.

Jeff

twinky99 · 05-30-12, 10:30 PM

thanks jeff, very helpful so far!