Sore Thumb Team Totals

EaglesPhan36 · 10-08-12, 04:48 PM

10.8.12: Yankees Team Total Over 4 [-130]
Yankees get a shot at Wei-Yin Chen for the 5th time. In the four previous starts, NYY scored at least four in three of those games. Chen gave up eleven earned runs however in the last two starts against the Yankees which came in September. Yanks have been good against lefties all season, averaging over five runs per nine innings against them - hitting .259. On the road, those numbers hold strong. Dating back to Chen's first start of September against NYY, the Yankees have scored at least four runs in 10 of 13 games started by a lefty including that game.

TallAzCrowe · 10-08-12, 05:33 PM

Nice hit on St Lou EP. I'm on them -1.5 +190 for a small play. Anyways I was scanning props for the Yankees and came across Cano to Hit a HR +320. That kinda jumped of the page to me! Cano has been a tear as of late and Chen has been fading away in his last 4 starts coming into tonight giving up runs & a few longballs. Cano getting only get 1 AB against Chen is my worry and perhaps the weather. I'm not a Yanks fan by any means but my boss listens to all the games on radio so I've been along for the ride all season, you definitely get a different perspective on a team from radio, much more informative. I am taking NY -.5 for the 1st 5 innings, Chens #s are that bad, just hoping Pettite has his playoff game face on, he should be fresh enough to hold tight thru 5. I like it even more after reading your post. Good Luck today, I'll be checking out the Shanghai thread tonight after work.

JR007 · 10-08-12, 06:37 PM

should be a "hook" on this yankees tt......fishy

EaglesPhan36 · 10-08-12, 09:07 PM

Bases loaded and nothing. Not a good omen.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-09-12, 02:27 PM

2012 Record: 119-93-10 [+10.10]

10.9.12: Reds Team Total Over 4 [+100]
Cincy going for the kill against Vogelsong. Vogelsong rediscovered his touch some down the stretch after a very rocky two months. Not sure I totally buy the resurgence with two of his strong three starts coming against San Diego. On the road, Vogelsong's starts saw the opponent score at least four in 11 of 16. He faced the Reds twice. At home, he gave up just two runs. In Cincy, he gave up four runs in 6 IP. Reds have scored five or better in both games of the series & some of the big boys have solid #s against Vogelsong - especially Brandon Phillips.

lesterdymond · 10-09-12, 04:22 PM

Glad to see ya back it EP..

I'm with ya here. Reds slam the door shut 5-3

EaglesPhan36 · 10-09-12, 04:35 PM

Yeah I also took the over for the full game @ 7.5 with a free play, so I am hoping to see runs all around. Homer Bailey is still an iffy proposition to me despite his recent dominance. His home starts were somewhat shaky all year.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-09-12, 05:54 PM

Reds ABs have been shitty since the 1st inning. Can't help but thinking that Brandon Phillips base running crap is going to wind up being the thing that keeps this from at least pushing. Still some time to get some runs, but they had a golden opportunity to lay a crooked # early that he fudged up by trying to go to 3rd.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-10-12, 11:03 AM

2012 Record: 119-94-10 [+9.10]

10.10.12: [NLDS G3] Nationals-Cardinals Total HRs Over 1.5 [-150]
Nationals Park isn't high atop the list you'd probably come up with for homer friendly parks, but it ranked 5th in the NL in HRs per game with just a shade over two and was one of just 13 parks to average two or better home runs per game this season. Edwin Jackson tosses for Washington. He dished out 23 long balls, but only nine @ home. Watch for his ABs vs. Yadier Molina if he's going to have trouble. Molina is 8/12 against Jackson with 2 HRs. Chris Carpenter is going for STL. He has given up a HR in two of his three starts since coming back. A four game set between these two teams in late August/early September saw nine HRs in the series with three of four games seeing at least two homers.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-10-12, 11:09 AM

Giants Team Total Under 3.5 [-125]
Latos goes for the Reds. He has been rock solid against SF in two starts this season, allowing just one run in 16 IP. He has gotten accustomed to Great American Ballpark as the season has gone on. In his last 12 starts @ home, only three have seen the opposition score four or more. That also goes for seven of his last eight overall. The Giants seem to be pressing some offensively IMO with just four runs and 12 hits in the entire series to this point.

JT OZ · 10-10-12, 11:14 AM

Indications are Leake for the Reds.

JT OZ · 10-10-12, 11:14 AM

As a Reds fan I wish it was Latos, figured he could bounce back from the relief appearance on Saturday.

Pick'nParlays · 10-10-12, 01:05 PM

Giants bats could bounce back today...

EaglesPhan36 · 10-10-12, 02:05 PM

Yeah I see Leake listed now. No play for me in that game now. Good luck if you're playing SF TT over. This is probably their best shot to produce. If not now, then never this series. May take another pop on the HR prop for that one. Leake gives up quite a few HRs or may just sit it out now.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-10-12, 02:20 PM

10.10.12: Giants-Reds Total Hits Over 17 [-115]
Going with this one. Zito gave up just over a hit per inning in his road starts with 88 in 83 IP. Leake gave up well over a hit per inning at home with 110 allowed in just 87.2 IP. Zito was solid against CIN in two starts this year, he allowed ten hits in 12 IP over two starts. Leake notched a CG against SF on the road, allowing nine hits in that game. Looking at the majority of Leake's starts, he has given up nearly a hit per inning or slightly higher in 21/30 starts. Yesterday certainly was a big time pitcher's duel, but this looks like both offenses will have more opportunities today to at least bang out some hits.

Pick'nParlays · 10-10-12, 02:36 PM

Good insightn EP.

I agree that it's the giants best chance to score thus far against cincy. Like the total hits prop. Imho, a home run prop might fall short....giants don't have the power sluggers or their looking cold in the first 3 games... Who knows maybe their due.

Bol

JR007 · 10-10-12, 02:47 PM

windy in Cinci out to center 15 m.p.h.

MetalHeadJeff86 · 10-10-12, 03:38 PM

Looking good so far. Hope you guys pounced on the HR total. Already 2 in 2 innings.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-10-12, 03:42 PM

Yeah too bad the HR prop failed in the one I took. Leake is a gopher ball giver.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-10-12, 04:59 PM

[ALDS G3] Yankees Team Total Under 4.5 [+100]
Miguel Gonzalez goes for Baltimore. This guy is really an unsung star in this rotation. He has pitched twice @ Yankee Stadium this season, allowing four runs and one run in those two starts. NYY did not score more than four in either game. In 15 starts, the oopposition has only scored more than four runs three times. Gonzalez has given up two runs or less in five of his last six starts overall.

SlickRick1382 · 10-10-12, 05:46 PM

Nice hit on the Cinci / San Fran game....

Damn client came before tip off and I lost track of time so was unable to hit that prop along with the Over ....

MetalHeadJeff86 · 10-10-12, 07:30 PM

Anything on the late game EP?

EaglesPhan36 · 10-10-12, 10:34 PM

Decent day. Too bad I lost with the heavy chalk.

2012 Record: 121-95-10 [+9.60]

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-12, 10:50 AM

10.11.12: [NLDS G5] Reds Team Total Over 3.5 [-110]
Cain is always capable of a gem, but he's now faced Cincinnati three times and the Reds have hit him pretty well. Cain gave up three runs or more in all three starts with the Reds scoring four or better in all three. Some of the Reds' big bats are killing Cain. Bruce 6/13, Ludwick 8/22, Votto 7/23. Phillips has a couple HRs off Cain.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-12, 02:06 PM

[NLDS G4] Nationals-Cardinals Total Hits Over 16.5 [-115]
Lohse for STL. Detwiler for WAS. Lohse gave up close to a hit per inning in his road starts this year, yielding 107 in 108.2 IP. He was no particularly effective in two starts against Washington, giving up 17 hits in 11.2 IP over two starts. Both those starts came in the last month of the season. Detwiler was better @ home than on the road, giving up 83 hits in 90 IP. He did struggle in his final starts of the season, one against STL where he gave up seven runs in 2.1 IP. That was on the road, but he has still been hittable with 12 hits allowed over 13.1 IP in his last three starts. STL's offense is hot with 27 hits over the last two games of this series, so I like them to continue to bang out the hits today.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-12, 03:17 PM

Can the Reds get one hit with a RISP late in the game ... c'mon fukkos.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-12, 03:24 PM

LOB Kings.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-12, 03:26 PM

Top of the order in the 9th. Only way they get that 4th run is a home run.

Mike Huntertz · 10-11-12, 03:39 PM

I'm sweating thru the last few innings praying for a single.
Shoestring catch in left........dang!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-12, 03:49 PM

YES! Finally. Hope the Reds pull off the comeback.

Mike Huntertz · 10-11-12, 04:00 PM

Weren't easy.
Thanxs

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-12, 04:03 PM

That probably makes up for the cards-nats which already looks cooked with only two hits in three innings.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-12-12, 03:52 PM

2012 Record: 122-96-10 [+9.45]

10.12.12: [ALDS G5] Orioles P Jason Hammel Total Walks Over 2 [-125]
Hammel has walked at least two batters in 14 of his 21 starts this season and all four against the Yankees. That includes Game 1 when he issued four free passes. I think if he's able to throw his normal allotment of pitches and go at least five innings that this should at worst land with a push.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-12-12, 04:38 PM

[NLDS G5] Nationals P Gio Gonzalez Total Walks Over 2 [-135]
25 times in 32 starts, Gonzalez has walked at least two batters. He had SEVEN in Game 1. He has issued ten now in 14 IP against the Cardinals. STL drew the 8th most walks in the majors this season. Gonzalez works a lot of deep counts setting up for strikeouts, so there should be some opportunities for walks.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-12-12, 05:04 PM

Terrible plate discipline for NY. Jeeze. Hammel is throwing strikes, but they aren't even making him work on anything.