Sore Thumb Team Totals

[EaglesPhan36]

Decided to go ahead and consolidate these into one thread. As the title indicates, these are team total plays that stick out like a sore thumb to me. Hopefully these help you one way or another. Always, get one for the thumb!

Think I got all the plays archived and graded since I started making these this season. Most of them as you will notice if you go back and look are OVERs. All you have to do is search "Sore Thumb" on SBR and you'll see the past plays before today. Will track the remainder here in one spot.

2012 Record: 10-5-2 [+4.20]

5.29.12: Mets Team Total Over 4 [-110]
Mets get a chance at Joe Blanton again today. Last time Blanton pitched against NY, the Mets scored four off him in a 7-4 Mets win on May 8th. Blanton has been beat up in three of his last four starts, giving up 18 ERs in that stretch. On the road, Blanton has a 5.40 ERA this season NY has scored four or better in four of their last five overall. The Phillies have given up four or more in six of their last ten.

[BiffTFinancial]

Agree. BOL EP.

[Mriceyman]

Missed ur winner yesterday... got this whole game to go over... lets do it

[crackerjack]

Thanks for the winner!

[crackerjack]

Is it in a rain delay? Does that mean if they don't finish, this bet is refunded? Dangit...that will be just my luck though. God can't let me have a winner so he's raining the game out.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah pretty much any book is going to require the game to go the full way to grade a total.

[Mriceyman]

Dammm... hopr they wait it out..

[EaglesPhan36]

Finished. No worries. Thumbs Up!

[crackerjack]

Excellent! Thanks again!! Good work...

[EaglesPhan36]

2012 Record: 11-5-2 [+6.20]

5.30.12: A's Team Total Over 4 [-105]A true test of the ineptitude of Francisco Liriano today as he faces the lighter hitting A's. Liriano makes his return to the rotation after getting bashed in his final bullpen appearance for four ER in 2.2 IP against Detroit. As a starter this season, Liriano has given up at least four runs in all six starts. His main issue has been walks, dealing out 26 in 34 IP. Oakland ranks just inside the Top 10 in walks drawn, so they should get some opportunities if they are patient. They have only scored four runs or better twice in their last ten, once in this series against the Twins. Minnesota though has given up at least four runs in eight of their last ten overall.

[Mriceyman]

A's r kills me this week

[EaglesPhan36]

Lesson learned. A's can't hit anyone. Sucks was choosing either side of this one for the team total, but went for the one that looked better on paper. Ah well, barring a miracle ... there will be another time .... probably have one more tonight.

[Mriceyman]

I'm in need of a winner lol

[EaglesPhan36]

5.30.12: Phillies Team Total Over 4 [-105]
Phils get another crack at Dillon Gee. He did pitch well against the Padres in his last start, but has still given up at least four runs in five of his nine starts. In all but two of his starts, the opposition has scored four or better by game's end. Philly cranked out ten hits and four runs in 5.2 IP against Gee on May 9th. The "cozy confines" of Citi Field have brought little relief for Gee as he sports a 5.93 home ERA. The Phils have scored at least four in five of their last seven.

[rumnblack]

g/l

[EaglesPhan36]

Fukkers can't get a big hit when they need one so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

Late rally and no worse than a push.

[bigant78]

He got all of that. Thanks for the pick

[EaglesPhan36]

Oh hells yes. After that J-Roll bomb to clinch it, Uno Mas.

5.30.12: Yankees Team Total Over 4 [-125]
Santana has been hit hard over his career by many of the Yankees regulars. Jeter .415, Granderson 4 HR, A-Rod .353, Cano .324, Chavez .355, Martin .300. He's been better lately, but has still given up at least four runs in half of his ten starts - including five to NYY back in April. Yanks have four or better in four of their last six.

[blanda]

Love the Yanks pick....also looking for a Giants-Snakes over...

[EaglesPhan36]

And we're already home with the Yankees scoring 5. Good rebound from the Oakland disaster.

[EaglesPhan36]

2012 Record: 13-6-2 [+7.15]

[taxe91]

been looking for a thread like this. every now and then i seem to find a very playable team total (even unders). GL

[EaglesPhan36]

5.31.12: Astros Team Total Over 4.5 [-105]
The series with Houston and Colorado has been chock full of runs and today's Rockies' starter, Jeremy Guthrie, should help continue that trend. Guthrie still is having issues pitching at Coors Field with a 9.92 home ERA in three starts. He has allowed six ERs in each start. Houston saw him early in the season at home, scoring three off him then. The 'Stros have five runs or better in each game of this series through three games. Colorado has now given up five runs or more in five straight.

[EaglesPhan36]

5.31.12: Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5 [-120]
Boston gets a shot at the inconsistent Max Scherzer. Scherzer was pounded for seven runs in the season opener against Boston. David Ortiz owns this guy. 6/8 lifetime. Scherzer has a 5.29 ERA on the road with the opposition scoring five or more in four of his six road starts. Boston has scored five or better in each of the 1st three games of this series and six of their last ten overall. Even without Pedroia, they are continuing to rake. With Scherzer often using plenty of pitches to get through his starts, Boston could also get a good look at the leaky Detroit bullpen that sports a road ERA over 5.

[EaglesPhan36]

Boston can't get a big hit tonight.

[Mriceyman]

Onr more for asstros ...the over was too easy at 9.5..

[Mriceyman]

I really need another run from the stros

[Mriceyman]

Woohooo.. good job ep

[cmaulsby]

Been tailing team totals and loving them, EP. How about both team overs as well like your soccer picks? A little extra to juice up the bankroll.

[tb1984]

Good luck, ep

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I kinda teetered with the Boston one, but liked the chances ... Astros was the better of the two for sure. Boston just missed some opportunities.

[EaglesPhan36]

2012 Record: 14-7-2 [+6.95]

[HighVoltage]

Yeah I kinda teetered with the Boston one, but liked the chances ... Astros was the better of the two for sure. Boston just missed some opportunities.

Great work! Would you consider applying units to your plays to account for the differences in strength?

[EaglesPhan36]

Nah. I am a flat rate bettor mostly unless I really, really love a pick - in which case I will note that this is an X-amount of units play. Otherwise, over the long run I think betting the same keeps things even when you go through the highs and lows.