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  • BiffTFinancial
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-29-09
    • 22670

    #1
    Saturday
    3* Padres/Phillies under 8 (-110)
    3* White Sox/Tribe under 8.5 (+100)
    2* Cardinals first five innings moneyline (-137)
  • BiffTFinancial
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-29-09
    • 22670

    #2
    also lean OAK/NYY under (pass), HOU/CHC over (pass), DET/MIN under, ATL/CIN over, COL/AZ under, TB/KC under, TOR/TEX over (line movement fishy, though).
    Comment
    • 19th Hole
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 03-22-09
      • 18965

      #3
      Biff....
      Wishing you good fortune
      this week-end.
      Comment
      • Shark
        SBR MVP
        • 01-14-10
        • 1790

        #4
        good luck today
        Comment
        • BiffTFinancial
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-29-09
          • 22670

          #5
          Originally posted by 19th Hole
          Biff.... Wishing you good fortune this week-end.
          Originally posted by Shark
          good luck today
          thanks, fellas, BOL to you as well.
          Comment
          • broadway6
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-14-09
            • 13337

            #6
            today pal.
            Comment
            • HOT WINGS
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-29-10
              • 8055

              #7
              Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
              3* Padres/Phillies under 8 (-110)
              3* White Sox/Tribe under 8.5 (+100)
              2* Cardinals first five innings moneyline (-137)
              Phils Under is big play for me as well. Lets get it Also debating that Indians under waiting to see if it goes to 9 first.
              Comment
              • BiffTFinancial
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-29-09
                • 22670

                #8
                Originally posted by broadway6
                today pal.
                you too, Broadway.

                Originally posted by HOT WINGS
                Phils Under is big play for me as well. Lets get it Also debating that Indians under waiting to see if it goes to 9 first.
                yeah, i'm now wishing that i'd waited on Tribe under. i was happy not to have to pay any juice, but now it looks as if i could've had a + number or 9. BM and Bodog are the only online books i see at 9. i honestly don't think Pinny, Greek, 5D, matchbook follow, but maybe that's wishful thinking. BOL today, Hotwings.

                edit: oops, 5D has moved to 9. f them.
                Comment
                • letsgo
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-27-10
                  • 2204

                  #9
                  Let's get em.
                  Comment
                  • God1
                    Restricted User
                    • 07-18-11
                    • 848

                    #10
                    Also on the phillies under. It's out of the scope of my normal totals bets but looking at all the numbers it just seems like a really good bet
                    Comment
                    • God1
                      Restricted User
                      • 07-18-11
                      • 848

                      #11
                      Latos is actually better against lefties than righties. Kendrick is actually an above average starter if you look at his performance vs righties. San Diego already dead last in the league vs righties(amazingly middle of the pack vs lefties). San Diego has 1 lefty in the lineup who is garbage even vs righties and their switch hitters are worse as well vs righties. And San Diego decided to add a couple more black holes to the lineup today with forsythe and kyle banks
                      Comment
                      • DIRTYDIRTY
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-12-09
                        • 1144

                        #12
                        On it baby let's get it gl fellas
                        Comment
                        • God1
                          Restricted User
                          • 07-18-11
                          • 848

                          #13
                          jesus christ how is dunn in the lineup against a lefty. .031 on the year vs lefties and he's hitting cleanup. unbelievable I thought the sox were a great bet today just going to cut the bet in half I guess. It's like some sick joke ozzie is playing on everyone because maybe he thinks he'll be fired I don't know. At least put him 8th if you can't bring yourself to bench him

                          Him batting cleanup today is worth at least 10 cents to the Indians
                          Comment
                          • BiffTFinancial
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-29-09
                            • 22670

                            #14
                            Originally posted by God1
                            jesus christ how is dunn in the lineup against a lefty. .031 on the year vs lefties and he's hitting cleanup. unbelievable I thought the sox were a great bet today just going to cut the bet in half I guess. It's like some sick joke ozzie is playing on everyone because maybe he thinks he'll be fired I don't know. At least put him 8th if you can't bring yourself to bench him Him batting cleanup today is worth at least 10 cents to the Indians
                            he may be worth 25 cents on the under. i was really hoping that he would be when i placed the under bet. can't believe that 5D went to 9, oh well.
                            Comment
                            • BiffTFinancial
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-29-09
                              • 22670

                              #15
                              Originally posted by God1
                              Latos is actually better against lefties than righties. Kendrick is actually an above average starter if you look at his performance vs righties. San Diego already dead last in the league vs righties(amazingly middle of the pack vs lefties). San Diego has 1 lefty in the lineup who is garbage even vs righties and their switch hitters are worse as well vs righties. And San Diego decided to add a couple more black holes to the lineup today with forsythe and kyle banks
                              and Howard taking the day off. that news only moved the under 10 cents, i would've expected more (maybe that was expected by the books, but i was not expecting it).
                              Comment
                              • God1
                                Restricted User
                                • 07-18-11
                                • 848

                                #16
                                Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
                                and Howard taking the day off. that news only moved the under 10 cents, i would've expected more (maybe that was expected by the books, but i was not expecting it).
                                Howard is 0-8 with 8 Ks against Latos, taking him out is probably neutral at best. Considering the 100% K rate(which I think makes the matchup stats relevant) it's probably a plus for the phillies and the over having mayberry in there(who has a higher WAR this year in alot less games)

                                where are you seeing this 10 cent move? pinnacle been within a 4 cent range since this morning
                                Comment
                                • BiffTFinancial
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-29-09
                                  • 22670

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by God1
                                  Howard is 0-8 with 8 Ks against Latos, taking him out is probably neutral at best where are you seeing this 10 cent move? pinnacle been within a 4 cent range since this morning
                                  5D moved from -110 to -120 (though it apparently moved back to -115 a little while ago). you're right about Pinny (and Greek has only moved 5c).
                                  Comment
                                  • BiffTFinancial
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-29-09
                                    • 22670

                                    #18
                                    adding

                                    3* Rays/Royals under 9 (-105)

                                    updated card
                                    3* Padres/Phillies under 8 (-110)
                                    3* White Sox/Tribe under 8.5 (+100)
                                    3* Rays/Royals under 9 (-105)
                                    2* Cardinals first five innings moneyline (-137)

                                    still thinking about COL/AZ under, SEA/BOS under (hoping goes to 9), TOR/TEX over (line movement fishy), MIL/SF over. may add one or two of those later. BOL to all tonight.
                                    Comment
                                    • God1
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 07-18-11
                                      • 848

                                      #19
                                      White Sox unders are hitting at absurd clip this year I can't believe I never even bothered to check it out
                                      Comment
                                      • I/O
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 05-26-11
                                        • 7922

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by God1
                                        jesus christ how is dunn in the lineup against a lefty. .031 on the year vs lefties and he's hitting cleanup. unbelievable I thought the sox were a great bet today just going to cut the bet in half I guess. It's like some sick joke ozzie is playing on everyone because maybe he thinks he'll be fired I don't know. At least put him 8th if you can't bring yourself to bench him

                                        Him batting cleanup today is worth at least 10 cents to the Indians
                                        fwiw

                                        he's actually looked a little better at the plate since the break

                                        nothing great, he still sucks, just better
                                        Comment
                                        • I/O
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 05-26-11
                                          • 7922

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by bifftfinancial
                                          3* padres/phillies under 8 (-110)
                                          3* white sox/tribe under 8.5 (+100)
                                          2* cardinals first five innings moneyline (-137)
                                          bol btf!
                                          Comment
                                          • BiffTFinancial
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-29-09
                                            • 22670

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by I/O
                                            bol btf!
                                            thanks, I/O, you too.
                                            Comment
                                            • BiffTFinancial
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-29-09
                                              • 22670

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by God1
                                              White Sox unders are hitting at absurd clip this year I can't believe I never even bothered to check it out
                                              yes, they have been very good so far. let's hope that it keeps up tonight.
                                              Comment
                                              • BiffTFinancial
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-29-09
                                                • 22670

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by God1
                                                White Sox unders are hitting at absurd clip this year I can't believe I never even bothered to check it out
                                                what do you make of the line movement on the Rangers total? the wind tunnel will be in effect, and both SPs have xFIPs that are much higher than their ERAs. public's obviously on the over, but over has gone from -115 to -102 at Pinny.
                                                Comment
                                                • God1
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 07-18-11
                                                  • 848

                                                  #25
                                                  pinnacle has lost it. Garza only -160 vs lyles tomorrow? Norris/Zambrano was -149 lol. Cubs pitcher gets significantly better and houston's pitcher worse
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BiffTFinancial
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-29-09
                                                    • 22670

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by God1
                                                    pinnacle has lost it. Garza only -160 vs lyles tomorrow? Norris/Zambrano was -149 lol. Cubs pitcher gets significantly better and houston's pitcher worse
                                                    now +104. who is unloading on this under? oh well, i may just pass on the wind tunnel and make MIL/SF my over, esp with the wind there.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • God1
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 07-18-11
                                                      • 848

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
                                                      what do you make of the line movement on the Rangers total? the wind tunnel will be in effect, and both SPs have xFIPs that are much higher than their ERAs. public's obviously on the over, but over has gone from -115 to -102 at Pinny.
                                                      Wind is blowing in from right center, i thought from left or center was the wind tunnel with the more to the left the better? If the wind tunnel is actually in affect I don't know how it isn't an over. Villanueva has a way below avg GB%, Harrison's is about avg and Blue jays are 1st in the league in fly ball % and Harrison's a lefty. But of course this could all be priced in already who knows that's why I won't be betting. Blue Jays yes, total no

                                                      Reading line movement is a usually a futile exercise. The idea of the minority % of volume being one side and that side getting more expensive doesn't mean that side is correct, I wouldn't let it affect what side I bet. If your model still has the line has profitable that's all that matters
                                                      Comment
                                                      • God1
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 07-18-11
                                                        • 848

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
                                                        now +104. who is unloading on this under?
                                                        impossible to know all that matters is if your model says its profitable or not
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BiffTFinancial
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-29-09
                                                          • 22670

                                                          #29
                                                          adding

                                                          2* Brewers/Giants over 7 (+102)

                                                          updated card
                                                          3* Padres/Phillies under 8 (-110)
                                                          3* White Sox/Tribe under 8.5 (+100)
                                                          3* Rays/Royals under 9 (-105)
                                                          2* Cardinals first five innings moneyline (-137)
                                                          2* Brewers/Giants over 7 (+102)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • God1
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 07-18-11
                                                            • 848

                                                            #30
                                                            there is just no possible way Dunn is being accurately priced into these lines. Masterson at -118 that is a joke
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BiffTFinancial
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-29-09
                                                              • 22670

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by God1
                                                              Wind is blowing in from right center, i thought from left or center was the wind tunnel with the more to the left the better? If the wind tunnel is actually in affect I don't know how it isn't an over. Villanueva has a way below avg GB%, Harrison's is about avg and Blue jays are 1st in the league in fly ball % and Harrison's a lefty. But of course this could all be priced in already who knows that's why I won't be betting. Blue Jays yes, total no Reading line movement is a usually a futile exercise. The idea of the minority % of volume being one side and that side getting more expensive doesn't mean that side is correct, I wouldn't let it affect what side I bet. If your model still has the line has profitable that's all that matters
                                                              thanks. i have a range that puts it close to 11. it's moved to 9.5. i may pass or i may bet over 9.5 2* on principle. i wouldn't bet the under with SBR points.

                                                              wind tunnel is South to Southwest when wind is 10+ mph. wind is supposed to be from South at 11 mph according to weatherunderground.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BiffTFinancial
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-29-09
                                                                • 22670

                                                                #32
                                                                Kyle Kendrick is a complete shithead.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • letsgo
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-27-10
                                                                  • 2204

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Lets hope it ends 4-3
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BiffTFinancial
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-29-09
                                                                    • 22670

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by letsgo
                                                                    Lets hope it ends 4-3
                                                                    right!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • letsgo
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-27-10
                                                                      • 2204

                                                                      #35
                                                                      There goes the under.
                                                                      Comment
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