LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/27/11

Play #1

Cubs ML (-120) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups...good luck.

[815Sox]

Wow, Ozzie is officially done as manager of the White Sox. Will not manage the next two games.

[Supaman]

Down day yesterday dont worry about it tho no ones perfect. Lets get them today LTA!

[Trivial]

Down day yesterday dont worry about it tho no ones perfect. Lets get them today LTA!

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 9/26/11

1 - 4 = -3.3x

MLB Season 2011

414 - 375 = +37.35x

We will have limited action heading into the playoffs. This last week of the season is tough because of all the replacement call ups from the minors. No need to give away any more profits in the regular season. Consequently, we will be extremely selective for the rest of this week. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/27/11

Play #1

Cubs ML (-120) 1x (Locked)

Might have one or two more plays, but our card for today will be small regardless.

Will be focusing primarily on football today. I really need to get an early jump on ncaaf for the first time this season.

Good luck.

[Trivial]

LTA : could not agree with you more.

[Supaman]

keep us updated on the ncaaf

[ram1502]

Might have one or two more plays, but our card for today will be small regardless.

Will be focusing primarily on football today. I really need to get an early jump on ncaaf for the first time this season.

Good luck.

Ready for the pucks to start dropping LTA? I'm pretty excited myself...

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, what do you think about the Braves today ? Do you think they can win against Oswalt to take the wild card ? The line moves in their direction.

[Love The Action]

Just locked a few more nfl plays...gl

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/1252335-ltas-nfl-plays-p12.html#post11619071

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, what do you think about the Braves today ? Do you think they can win against Oswalt to take the wild card ? The line moves in their direction.

I lean Braves, but no play for me. GL

[funnyman]

LTA, looking forward to your MLB plays. You said unders are good?

[fitguy67]

go cubs

[Love The Action]

LTA, looking forward to your MLB plays. You said unders are good?

I don't understand the question. I am only playing the cubs ml today so far. GL.

[Love The Action]

go cubs

[funnyman]

LTA, sorry about the incomplete question. I meant to ask if you like unders in the MLB playoffs.

[Love The Action]

LTA, sorry about the incomplete question. I meant to ask if you like unders in the MLB playoffs.

I prefer unders in general. However, I look for value and mistakes first and foremost. Even though I prefer unders, and the playoffs are a great time for some big play unders, I will not hesitate to play an over if the books shade an under too heavy. Everything depends on the opening price and how that compares to the price I set. Good luck! Let's make some mlb october money!

[Love The Action]

I'm a little surprised more money has not come in on the cubs. I have this one a bit over -130 which is where I expected the line to go. It's still early for a 10pm game...let's see where the closer ends up.

I'm also starting to lean to the yankees. I cant believe that is at +180. That's good value and all the crap about the yanks throwing this game is BS fantasy land stuff....

[Trivial]

LTA : I have been wondering about thr Yankees also for half a unit.

[Redscot]

I'm a little surprised more money has not come in on the cubs. I have this one a bit over -130 which is where I expected the line to go. It's still early for a 10pm game...let's see where the closer ends up.

I'm also starting to lean to the yankees. I cant believe that is at +180. That's good value and all the crap about the yanks throwing this game is BS fantasy land stuff....

So true. Professional athlete's ain't gonna throw a game unless there is MAJOR money or threat involved. They are confident enough to think they can beat anyone, no need to lay down to create a "better" match up. There are guys in contract years, fringe players/rookies trying to make a name for themselves, guys chasing stats....it's preposterous really. Now, whether they play with the same urgency can be debated (although "urgency" is a double edged sword, just ask the Braves/Sox/Cards etc.)

I would be a little worried about Bartolo's decline, his velocity has dipped over the last month (understandably, most work he's had in years and pitched winter ball), league also got the "new" book on him and his 2-seamer. Still, understand the interest in +180 for a team that can put up 6 runs in their sleep and is not gonna lay down.

Been too busy to cap anything, gonna tail ya on the Cubs and look forward to any other stuff you have cooking.

[Trivial]

LTA : I hear you. The cubs line went from -120 to -115 at my book. Weird.

[Love The Action]

So true. Professional athlete's ain't gonna throw a game unless there is MAJOR money or threat involved. They are confident enough to think they can beat anyone, no need to lay down to create a "better" match up. There are guys in contract years, fringe players/rookies trying to make a name for themselves, guys chasing stats....it's preposterous really. Now, whether they play with the same urgency can be debated (although "urgency" is a double edged sword, just ask the Braves/Sox/Cards etc.)

I would be a little worried about Bartolo's decline, his velocity has dipped over the last month (understandably, most work he's had in years and pitched winter ball), league also got the "new" book on him and his 2-seamer. Still, understand the interest in +180 for a team that can put up 6 runs in their sleep and is not gonna lay down.

Been too busy to cap anything, gonna tail ya on the Cubs and look forward to any other stuff you have cooking.

Well said!!!

Did you see the yanks lineup? The only regular sitting is jeter and girardi is playing six lefties against a bad pitcher against lefties. Finally, I just read a story in the ny papers which stated that girardi if going to pitch each of his top 4 or 5 relievers one inning tonight. That means we only need 4 or 5 innings out of the fat man. I'm close to locking in the yanks...

[Redscot]

Well said!!!

Did you see the yanks lineup? The only regular sitting is jeter and girardi is playing six lefties against a bad pitcher against lefties. Finally, I just read a story in the ny papers which stated that girardi if going to pitch each of his top 4 or 5 relievers one inning tonight. That means we only need 4 or 5 innings out of the fat man. I'm close to locking in the yanks...

On another note.
I don't see Bedard being lights out tonight, Lavarnway catching Bedard for first time in this spot ain't gonna help him gain quick rhythm. (edit) See both Varitek and Salty are ?, that is tough. Gonna be interesting in Boston if the game is close.....Sox lineup has Lawrie Cleanup and 6-9
6. Ryan Lavarnway (R) C
7. Darnell McDonald (R) RF
8. Carl Crawford (L) LF
9. Marco Scutaro (R) SS

Not all that intimidating.

[815Sox]

Well said!!!

Did you see the yanks lineup? The only regular sitting is jeter and girardi is playing six lefties against a bad pitcher against lefties. Finally, I just read a story in the ny papers which stated that girardi if going to pitch each of his top 4 or 5 relievers one inning tonight. That means we only need 4 or 5 innings out of the fat man. I'm close to locking in the yanks...

Really? That is worth a look for sure.

[adamo1018]

Anytime i can get the Yanks +1 1/2 (-120), I'm taking that action!

[815Sox]

Ready for the pucks to start dropping LTA? I'm pretty excited myself...

I am so ready for Hockey.

Also, going to caution people on betting for or against the White Sox as there is most likely going to be tons of emotions going on. Ozzie is now gone and this very well could be Buehrle's last game. No way to tell how its going to effect them (if at all). Keep in mind there are some vets that have been with Ozzie for a very long time. This is only Paul Konerko's second managerial change. Speaking of Konerko, the guy has had an incredible year and just barley made the All-Star game. Prime example of why fan voting blows.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/27/11

Play #1

Cubs ML (-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Yankees ML (+183) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe these odds, which are only based on tb's "desire" to win this game and the yanks alleged tanking of the same. That's all public perception guys, so don't be foolish enough to fall for it. If this was not the end of the sea season, Hellickson would not be more than -130. Thankfully, everyone thinks the yanks lose just because tb needs it
more and we get +183 on the team with the better lineup and pitching. Yes, colon has the better advanced stats for the most part. Moreover, check hell boys stats against lefties, six of which he will face tonight, and you will find he has an xFIP over 5.6 which is one of the worst in the league. Colon actually hss not pitched that bad over the last month as he has a 3.6 xFIP and BABIP of .343 with only a 50% LOB% in that time. That means he has been really unlucky. Plus, we only need about five innings out of fat boy because girardi has stated that he will pitch robertson, logan, soriano and rivera tonight to get them ready for the playoffs. Finally, as far as motivation, the yankees will be motivated because colon wants a contract and all the hitters want to pad their stats. The yanks sure as hell are not going to strike out on purpose. The yanks may not win, but at +183 they become an auto play when you consider they are playing all their top guys except jeter (who has not hit well off hellickson anyway). This is a no brainer for me at this price and I will take the yanks at +183 for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Anytime i can get the Yanks +1 1/2 (-120), I'm taking that action!

That might be the better play as opposed to the ml, but I can't get over the +183 on the yanks. All we need is one swing from the Yankee heavy hitters to make this a sweet night.

[lakerboy]

good luck lta. im on the rays rl. yanks wont sniff hellickson

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. Lets go 2-0 tonight.

[PhillyFlyers]

I'm a little surprised more money has not come in on the cubs. I have this one a bit over -130 which is where I expected the line to go. It's still early for a 10pm game...let's see where the closer ends up.

I'm also starting to lean to the yankees. I cant believe that is at +180. That's good value and all the crap about the yanks throwing this game is BS fantasy land stuff....

Hey guys, I'm new to this forum but just wanted to put my $0.02 in regarding this statement. My opinion is this...

Professional sports, all sports, are fixed. There are records of it since the beginning. Boxing, football, baseball, basketball, soccer, etc. etc. You name it, it's been fixed.

It's comes in all forms too. Sometimes, it's a player/athlete that gets caught. Other times, it's a referee or official.

I am also of the opinion that there is no way to stop it. For every Tim Donaghy that gets caught, there may be 10 more waiting in line behind him.

I'm not saying every game is fixed, but some still clearly are in my opinion. Look at the Toledo/Syracuse football game where an obvious missed PAT was called good. To me, that is an obvious sign that something underhanded was going on in that game.

That game should have rightly been won by Toledo. So why wasn't it?

The funny/sad part about it that all the NCAA/Big East will do about it is issue some sort of an apology or lame excuse for it, and it will all be swept under the rug like it never even happened and things will continue just like they normally do.

I am in no way saying that the Yankees are in a fix or throwing a game purposely. Nor do I mean to cause any offense so please don't take it wrongly. All I'm trying to say is that some games have definitely been fixed in the past and I believe they continue to be so today.

[Love The Action]

good luck lta. im on the rays rl. yanks wont sniff hellickson

Same to you LB....

Perhaps the joke's on me, but I can't lay off the yanks at +183. Too much inflated value to pass up on the better team. I venture to say most people are taking the rays because they "want" it more. However, motivational angles play the least importance in baseball out of all the major sports. I like the yankee lineup tonight....

[No coincidences]

good luck lta. im on the rays rl. yanks wont sniff hellickson

I'm with LTA on this LB. Hellickson is good, but beatable and this is a big spot for a rookie to be in.

[Redscot]

good luck lta. im on the rays rl. yanks wont sniff hellickson

That's a bold statement for a rookie in a huge spot. Not sure if you are a believer in advanced stats, but Hell-boy has been one of the luckier pitchers this year in baseball, Babip .222! LOB % 82. He's capable, no argument there, but conspiracy theories withstanding the yanks ain't no shrinking violets and getting +180 is taking advantage of the public sentiment that a team "needs" a game imo. Either way best of luck, I have observed your threads and you seem to be a stand up guy.