Sunday

[BigDan]

whoa! action. love sunday night on a three day weekend. gotta get the bulk of my 4th capping done tonight so i can go swimming with kids in the morning then having people over tomorrow afternoon.

yea im busy 2marro as well, prob have some time in the morning but doubt im gonna get the adv of knowing the umps and there a few totals i got my eye on already.

[BiffTFinancial]

big dan, check it. check out the shadows in the Dodgers/Angels game right now. it's a 5 pm local start. 4 pm local start is the worst, but 5 still bad. i gotta check StL's ball park set up, but if home plate is situated similarly to Angels (plate is at SW corner), could make for same sort of shadows, though i'll defer to your knowledge of your home stadium. 4 pm local start in Tribe game is money under so long as flag isn't blowing out to the lake, i know that. Angels stadium is similar. another game with a weird start time tomorrow is AZ/MIL (3 pm local).

[BiffTFinancial]

according to Willie Bee's ballpark layouts, STL set up same as LAA, home at SW corner. hmmm.

[BiffTFinancial]

Miller Park, however, is north to south from 3B to rightfield, so sun will be in different direction. still could cause some odd shadows.

[HOT WINGS]

BOL. i like both of those, but the line movement spooked me. nice hit on the Giants/Tigers over. Brandon Inge's hit was a dagger.

Yeah line moved against but I couldnt resist Kind of funny that it was Brandon Inge of all people to hit a triple. As a Tigers fan he always seems to be the rally killer of the bunch although this year it has been Rayburn. Seems like he strikeout at least twice a game. Cant wait for Guillen to get back

[BigDan]

big dan, check it. check out the shadows in the Dodgers/Angels game right now. it's a 5 pm local start. 4 pm local start is the worst, but 5 still bad. i gotta check StL's ball park set up, but if home plate is situated similarly to Angels (plate is at SW corner), could make for same sort of shadows, though i'll defer to your knowledge of your home stadium. 4 pm local start in Tribe game is money under so long as flag isn't blowing out to the lake, i know that. Angels stadium is similar. another game with a weird start time tomorrow is AZ/MIL (3 pm local).

yea should be a factor, the open end of outfield faces the arch and river so that is east, sun sets behind home, not for certain what time it gets under the stadium tho to create the shadows. ill try and find out. but i mean this is a nice looking under anyway, Cueto has been a beast Carp is acting like he does. stl has hit Cueto tho while reds not so much against Carp. If it wasnt for the fact stl is off a road trip with no day off id be eating up Cards at -120.

[BigDan]

Kc/cws h/r/e ov is more than likely gonna be a play for me again 2marro. figure it should be around 27.5ish, kc been hitting and have good numbers against buehrle, Francis is good for some runs against. sox have high avg against him but mostly singles. like the over so h/r/e it is if reasonable.

[BiffTFinancial]

Kc/cws h/r/e ov is more than likely gonna be a play for me again 2marro. figure it should be around 27.5ish, kc been hitting and have good numbers against buehrle, Francis is good for some runs against. sox have high avg against him but mostly singles. like the over so h/r/e it is if reasonable.

that sounds solid.

[BigDan]

cashed laa ff under

[Lord and Master]

any idea why they aren't pitching around kemp?

[BigDan]

here what my 1st thoughts are.

hou/pit ov 7.5 or pit. McCutchen is on fire and in limited abs pit has hit myers really well. Hou can hit lefties so thinking over but maybe just pit.

sd/sf un 6.5 or maybe just sd tt under...Timmy owns this team. damn near has struck them out half the plate appearances they have had. Prop timmy ov k-outs

sea ml un ff maybe oak tt under..Pineda shouldnt have much prob with this lineup even tho kennedy got spanked by them today. McCarthy off dl but he has pitched well against this group.

kc/chi h/r/e ov

tex rl and ov 10..this pitcher for balty is a big inning waiting to happen.

still looking at stl and under. atl/col un gm or ff un.

just getting some ideas going...

[BiffTFinancial]

initial leans
CIN/StL under 7.5
HOU/PIT under 7.5
SEA/OAK under 6.5
SD/SF under 6.5
NYY/CLE over 8.5
TOR/BOS over 9.5
BAL/TEX over 10
KC/CWS RHE over
NYM/LAD under 7.5

[BigDan]

damn that double by Looney was so close to being out. that would have been perfect, got my ov 1.5 hr and it would have me in good shape in bets on both sides.

[BigDan]

1st glance that looks good bro. Why pit un? any reason besides i know you love pit under.

[Lord and Master]

that astros line tomorrow is ridiculous they really might be a bet every game for a while. blue jays look good too

[BigDan]

Fish tt ov 3.5

Got this, now i need them to act like the fish and let tex score some more in 8th or 9th.

[BiffTFinancial]

1st glance that looks good bro. Why pit un? any reason besides i know you love pit under.

Pirates have played really low-scoring at home. Maholm has gone 11-2 under. that said, Astros hit lefties pretty well, and i have ridden Pirates home unders pretty hard, no need to press with so many options.

as i cut this down, thinking:
CIN/StL under 7.5
SEA/OAK under 6.5
SD/SF under 6.5
TOR/BOS over 9.5
BAL/TEX over 10
KC/CWS RHE over

[BiffTFinancial]

that astros line tomorrow is ridiculous they really might be a bet every game for a while. blue jays look good too

good call. i was just looking at how well they hit lefties, and Maholm's xFIP is more than a run higher than his ERA. tomorrow might be the day that he gets shelled. Jays sound good too, i think both teams will hit in that one. Jays/Red Sox and O's/Rangers are the two overs that i like tomorrow.

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Dodgers/Angels under 7.5 - WINNER

5-3 +5.77u on the day.

[BigDan]

that astros line tomorrow is ridiculous they really might be a bet every game for a while. blue jays look good too

yea i could see Jays for sure. Not sure Sox will just show back up home and be super hot again. Morrow got lit up by them once so you gotta think he looking to bounce back from that. Tor did a decent job hitting Lee and Doc i think they will be happy to see Lackey.

The more i look the more i would say stros prob not a bad option, im torn on whether or not i can flip on this, i can get off pit but not sure i wanna be on stros. I realize they been losing to better teams than pit lately, and playing them well. im better off finding someone i trust i think, i took a stab gm 1 against bos and left it alone today. i could see taking another stab at them 2marro some things look good for them (well besides pen matchup) but i dont wanna be invested in this team and have to play them another day if pit wins this game, havnt looked at the pitching matchups beyond 2marro tho so let me do that.

[BigDan]

3* Dodgers/Angels under 7.5 - WINNER

5-3 +5.77u on the day.

nice job brother...i did the ff and gm i think. of coarse i added a bunch of degen shit but fish/tex just went over too

[BiffTFinancial]

nice job brother...i did the ff and gm i think. of coarse i added a bunch of degen shit but fish/tex just went over too

yeah, i was pleased to see that you guys got that late over thanks to the triple. good stuff.

[BigDan]

only thing about stl under is im not really sure about weather, they say chance of rain, delays would kill under fast in this one i think.

[Lord and Master]

yea i could see Jays for sure. Not sure Sox will just show back up home and be super hot again. Morrow got lit up by them once so you gotta think he looking to bounce back from that. Tor did a decent job hitting Lee and Doc i think they will be happy to see Lackey.

it might be a bad bet, betting against the sox at home is never good but morrow is far better than ERA and there be at 75%+ on the sox as a result, which is pretty heavy at -130. Lackey's elbow is still messed up too

(well besides pen matchup).

astros bullpen is 8th in xFIP, Pirates is 17th. why even bother looking at ERA when its been proven inferior to xFIP or SIERA for forecasting? i only look to ERA to forecast how the public will interpret a pitcher, never for what I think

[BigDan]

it might be a bad bet, betting against the sox at home is never good but morrow is far better than ERA and there be at 75%+ on the sox as a result, which is pretty heavy at -130. Lackey's elbow is still messed up too



astros bullpen is 8th in xFIP, Pirates is 17th. why even bother looking at ERA when its been proven inferior to xFIP or SIERA for forecasting?

didnt look at era's or xfip just my initial reaction so i guess that it just my perception that pit pen is better than hou seeing them both plenty.

[BigDan]

only thing about stl under is im not really sure about weather, they say chance of rain, delays would kill under fast in this one i think.

well weather person says shit be gone by gmtime but i rarely even watch weather cause they never right round here. they would be broke gamblers for sure.

[Lord and Master]

didnt look at era's or xfip just my initial reaction so i guess that it just my perception that pit pen is better than hou seeing them both plenty.

yes that would be perception...astros bullpen 29th in ERA and pirates is top 10

[face]

biff how do you go about thinking about over/unders at fenway park? with that wall? under 9.5 with the blue jays is even money, but what if it's one of those crazy red sox over games? both pitchers are average.

[Lord and Master]

biff how do you go about thinking about over/unders at fenway park? with that wall? under 9.5 with the blue jays is even money, but what if it's one of those crazy red sox over games? both pitchers are average.

whoa you are way off...morrow is elite and lackey is among the worst in baseball. this is why i'm convinced jays will be a bet tomorrow but i'll wait to make sure the public isn't shunning lackey

[BiffTFinancial]

biff how do you go about thinking about over/unders at fenway park? with that wall? under 9.5 with the blue jays is even money, but what if it's one of those crazy red sox over games? both pitchers are average.

i like the over in that game.

[figue]

3* Dodgers/Angels under 7.5 - WINNER

5-3 +5.77u on the day.

[face]

i don't think morrow is elite, lackey does seem bad.

[Lord and Master]

i don't think morrow is elite

you would be wrong

[face]

what is elite about a 4 something era and a 4-4 record? jair jurjens has 11 wins and braves do not always give the best run support. cc and roy and freak are elite.

[Lord and Master]

what is elite about a 4 something era

because ERA includes a decent amount of luck and is not an accurate reflection of how a pitcher has done or will do. morrow has low a strand rate and high BABIP both of which will regress to the league average

and a 4-4 record?

how in the ******* world is his record relevant to how good a pitcher he is? it's completely based on how many runs toronto scores. he has zero impact on that

cc and roy and freak are elite

morrow is better than cc in parks that don't have short fences