New MLB System Strategies, Based on Statistics.

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  • HoulihansTX
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 02-12-09
    • 30566

    #631
    MountgMoney management is key. I have not deviated my units since I have started using the system. I have lessened my unit sizes occasionally when there are a high amount of plays.
    Comment
    • BrewMaster
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-03-10
      • 555

      #632
      28May11 Result: will update tomorrow
      Record Official Start 15May11: will update tomorrow


      Scientific Approach 29May11:


      PHI, -246
      CLE, -166
      ARZ, -248
      ANA, -298
      PIT, -199
      STL, -175
      FLA, -162
      BOS, -225

      Filtered (TOR,OAK,NYY)
      System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck.
      Comment
      • ShivaBowl
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-09-10
        • 5133

        #633
        Originally posted by joeytunes
        free play is redsox game 2
        MLB 2010 Premium Internet Service Plays 42 - 11 ( + 31.20 Units )
        Complimentary Selection from Sportrends for 5/29/2011

        Take Boston W/Beckett over Detroit W/Verlander NO PLAY if > -125
        Comment
        • ShivaBowl
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-09-10
          • 5133

          #634
          TPR system went 1-0, yesterday +1.0 unit
          MLW 1.1 –144 W
          Start Date
          05/01 30-31 –1.06u

          PR Predicted Runs
          Yesterday, 1-1, +. 78
          SDP +128 W
          KC 1/2u +180 L
          Start Date 05/13 +5.62u

          H/A Plays went yesterday 2-0 +2.28 units
          PHI –150 W
          SDP 1/2u +1.28 W
          05/29 2-0 +2.28
          FYI: 05/24 9-1


          TPR Plays, 05/29
          LAA 1.2
          MLW 1.1
          STL 1.1
          BOS 1.0 Game 2
          Filtered Out
          NYY 2.1 L/2

          PR Run Plays, 05/29
          No Plays

          H/A Plays, 05/29
          No Plays
          Last edited by ShivaBowl; 05-29-11, 11:16 AM.
          Comment
          • ShivaBowl
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-09-10
            • 5133

            #635
            M/L System Plays
            Filter No Play if >-140
            COL, LAD, TB

            BPR System Plays
            Filter No Play if >-150
            LAA 6.02
            Bos 5.16 (Game 1 & 2) they are hot.
            MLW 2.74
            CLE 2.46
            ATL 2.07
            SEA 1.75
            WAS 1.64
            FLA 1.38
            KC 1.21

            P/T Power Plays
            Filter No Play if >-130
            MIN
            SEA
            CIN
            TB n/p (watch line movement currently -142)

            S/A System Plays
            Filter No Play if >-150
            PHI, -246
            CLE, -166
            ARZ, -248
            ANA, -298
            PIT, -199
            STL, -175
            FLA, -162
            BOS, -225 Game 2

            TPR System Plays
            Filter No Play if >-150
            LAA 1.2
            MLW 1.1
            STL 1.1
            BOS 1.0 Game 2
            Filtered Out
            NYY 2.1 L/2

            PR Run Plays
            No Plays

            H/A System Plays
            No Plays
            Last edited by ShivaBowl; 05-29-11, 11:16 AM.
            Comment
            • ShivaBowl
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-09-10
              • 5133

              #636
              Originally posted by ShivaBowl
              You need to know what the differences are in each system. The Projected Money Line System and the Scientific Approach are based on a directional money lines. Its very important to pay attention too line constraints and make plays 15 - 20 minutes prior to start of any game, check to see if a majority of casinos are in agreement with M/L and S/A Line Plays.

              While the BPR, TPR, H/A, PR Runs and the PT Power Plays are performance based, I cross check all the systems to build a consensus. When there’s a conflict between two systems? Do your own handicapping, or go with the hot system. BOL
              EX: this is what I am looking for....Todays TPR Plays LAA, MLW, BOS... Todays BPR Plays LAA, MLW, BOS.
              The TPR System should score more runs and BPR System should hold on to them.
              BOL
              Last edited by ShivaBowl; 05-29-11, 11:13 AM.
              Comment
              • barts185
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-13-09
                • 815

                #637
                Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                (May 5 - Current)
                (42-28)

                May 29 BPR

                Angels 6.02
                Boston 5.16 (Game 1 & 2) They are hot.
                Milwaukee 2.74
                Cleveland 2.46
                Atl 2.07
                Seattle 1.75
                Wash 1.64
                Florida 1.38
                Kansas City 1.21

                Houston np L2
                Balty np L2
                Cubs np L2

                Questions or Concerns, let me know. BOL
                .

                I thought we weren't doing this with g2 of double headers? Or are you just doing it because as you say, Boston is on a winning streak?

                Thanks.
                Comment
                • rask7rask7
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 10-01-10
                  • 159

                  #638
                  Good luck today, doing well.
                  Comment
                  • Formulawiz
                    Restricted User
                    • 01-12-09
                    • 1589

                    #639
                    ML plays went 2-1, +0.6 units
                    YTD 26-14, 7.15 units

                    ML plays later
                    Comment
                    • Formulawiz
                      Restricted User
                      • 01-12-09
                      • 1589

                      #640
                      Shiva wondering why STL and ATL were no plays as H/A PP. I had both those plays.
                      Comment
                      • losemyloot
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 01-26-11
                        • 697

                        #641
                        Yesterdays PT Power Plays 05/29
                        MIN +127 L
                        SEA +140 L
                        CIN +110 L
                        Yesterday 0-3 -3.0 Units
                        Start Date 05/01
                        56-66 -4.85 Units

                        Todays PT Power Plays 5/30
                        OAK
                        COL
                        ARZ
                        n/p if >-130

                        Filtered Out
                        STL 1/2U n/p -155
                        KC n/p L2
                        BAL ½U L3
                        TAM n/p TEX W2
                        Comment
                        • HoulihansTX
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 02-12-09
                          • 30566

                          #642
                          Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                          (May 5 - Current)
                          (42-28)

                          May 29 BPR

                          Angels 6.02 W (-145)
                          Boston 5.16 (Game 1 No Play >150)
                          (Game 2 L -105)
                          Milwaukee 2.74 (No Play >-150)
                          Cleveland 2.46 L (+135)
                          Atl 2.07 W (-130)
                          Seattle 1.75 L (+155)
                          Wash 1.64 L (-105)
                          Florida 1.38 L (+115)
                          Kansas City 1.21 L (+190)
                          .
                          [I](May 5 - Current)
                          (44-34) +5.95Units

                          May30 BPR

                          Seattle 6.79
                          Pitt 2.97
                          Colorado 2.65
                          Angels 2.26
                          Philly 1.60

                          Bart, yesterday I recommened playing Boston in both games, b/c they were on a four game win streak. Also Boston GM 2 was a Free Play, which have been winning @ a high rate also. Lastly, TPR recommended Boston for the day. Although it did not work to me liking, the effort had solid reasoning. Thanks.
                          Comment
                          • HoulihansTX
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 02-12-09
                            • 30566

                            #643
                            Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                            (May 5 - Current)
                            (42-28)

                            May 29 BPR

                            Angels 6.02 W (-145)
                            Boston 5.16 (Game 1 No Play >150)
                            (Game 2 L -105)
                            Milwaukee 2.74 (No Play >-150)
                            Cleveland 2.46 L (+135)
                            Atl 2.07 W (-130)
                            Seattle 1.75 L (+155)
                            Wash 1.64 L (-105)
                            Florida 1.38 L (+115)
                            Kansas City 1.21 L (+190)
                            .
                            (May 5 - Current)
                            (44-34) +5.95Units

                            May30 BPR

                            Seattle 6.79
                            Pitt 2.97
                            Colorado 2.65
                            Angels 2.26
                            Philly 1.60

                            Bart, yesterday I recommened playing Boston in both games, b/c they were on a four game win streak. Also Boston GM 2 was a Free Play, which have been winning @ a high rate also. Lastly, TPR recommended Boston for the day. Although it did not work to me liking, the effort had solid reasoning. Thanks
                            .
                            Comment
                            • ShivaBowl
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-09-10
                              • 5133

                              #644
                              Updated
                              Discard your email.
                              Last edited by ShivaBowl; 05-30-11, 08:57 AM.
                              Comment
                              • BrewMaster
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 12-03-10
                                • 555

                                #645
                                28,29May11 Result: 5-6
                                Record Official Start 15May11: 30-29 +1.89 units


                                Scientific Approach 30May11:


                                DET, -129
                                MLW, -121
                                PIT, -158
                                COL, -206

                                Filtered (ATL, STL, BOS, TB)
                                System NO PLAY if >-150. Good Luck.
                                Comment
                                • BrewMaster
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 12-03-10
                                  • 555

                                  #646
                                  Originally posted by ShivaBowl

                                  I’m going to drop the PR run system and spend more time on the H/A System.
                                  Thanks WIZ
                                  Good idea. Now that we have a decent sample size, it's time to start spend time analyzing the more profitable systems
                                  Last edited by BrewMaster; 05-30-11, 08:54 AM.
                                  Comment
                                  • ShivaBowl
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-09-10
                                    • 5133

                                    #647
                                    Originally posted by Formulawiz
                                    Shiva wondering why STL and ATL were no plays as H/A PP. I had both those plays.
                                    The differential in the H/A-IP with Cueto and Jurrjens was ten innings pitched; I try to keep the H/A Diff on IP ten and under, but the numbers on the H/A-TP-DIF warranted a play on ATL and I missed it.

                                    STL, H/A-PP-DIF was under 50 but I missed the strong numbers on the H/A-TP-DIF for STL. And I should have made STL a play yesterday.

                                    EX: today’s H/A with TEX and TB the Diff is 55.5 but TEX away IP is 28.3
                                    While TB home IP is 31, so with the number at 55.5 I will pass on TEX.

                                    EX: NYY and OAK, the H/A-IP Diff on the these pitchers today, is only 3IP,
                                    And with the number at –63.7, I would have justified a play, on the NYY.

                                    I’m going to drop the PR run system and spend more time on the H/A System.
                                    Thanks WIZ
                                    Comment
                                    • ShivaBowl
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-09-10
                                      • 5133

                                      #648
                                      TPR system went 2-1 yesterday, +1.23 units
                                      LAA –148 W
                                      MLW ->150 W
                                      STL +130 W
                                      BOS –107 L
                                      Start Date 05/01 32-32 +0.17u

                                      PR Predicted Runs 05/29
                                      N/P
                                      Start Date 05/13 +5.62u

                                      H/A Plays 05/29
                                      N/P
                                      05/29 2-0 +2.28


                                      TPR Plays, 05/30
                                      STL 2.0 np if >-150
                                      DET 1.3 np if >-150
                                      BOS 1.4 np if >150
                                      NYY 1.8 np OAK W/4

                                      H/A Plays, 05/30
                                      TOR
                                      Comment
                                      • barts185
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 12-13-09
                                        • 815

                                        #649
                                        Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                        (May 5 - Current)
                                        (44-34) +5.95Units

                                        May30 BPR

                                        Seattle 6.79
                                        Pitt 2.97
                                        Colorado 2.65
                                        Angels 2.26
                                        Philly 1.60

                                        Bart, yesterday I recommened playing Boston in both games, b/c they were on a four game win streak. Also Boston GM 2 was a Free Play, which have been winning @ a high rate also. Lastly, TPR recommended Boston for the day. Although it did not work to me liking, the effort had solid reasoning. Thanks
                                        .
                                        Thanks for the explanation. I appreciate you taking the time, especially when you're on the road.
                                        Comment
                                        • ShivaBowl
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 03-09-10
                                          • 5133

                                          #650
                                          Complimentary Selection from Sportrends for 5/30/2011

                                          Take Texas W/Holland over Tampa Bay W/Davis NO PLAY if TEX < +105
                                          Comment
                                          • barts185
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 12-13-09
                                            • 815

                                            #651
                                            Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                            (May 5 - Current)
                                            (44-34) +5.95Units

                                            May30 BPR

                                            Seattle 6.79
                                            Pitt 2.97
                                            Colorado 2.65
                                            Angels 2.26
                                            Philly 1.60

                                            Bart, yesterday I recommened playing Boston in both games, b/c they were on a four game win streak. Also Boston GM 2 was a Free Play, which have been winning @ a high rate also. Lastly, TPR recommended Boston for the day. Although it did not work to me liking, the effort had solid reasoning. Thanks
                                            .
                                            In an effort to help out, here's what I came up with for the eliminated games today, agree with the games listed above (with the exception of Philly due to the line)

                                            Philly np line is too high.
                                            ATL np SDG W2
                                            HOU np L2
                                            FLA np ARI W2
                                            NYY np OAK W2
                                            CLE np TOR W2


                                            Good Luck,
                                            Bart
                                            Comment
                                            • BrewMaster
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 12-03-10
                                              • 555

                                              #652
                                              Do we have ML plays yet?
                                              Comment
                                              • HoulihansTX
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 02-12-09
                                                • 30566

                                                #653
                                                Originally posted by BrewMaster
                                                Do we have ML plays yet?
                                                I will post them 30 minutes B4 the 1'o clocks if Formula, doesn't make an apperance by then.

                                                Cool?
                                                Comment
                                                • infamousbacardi
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-16-08
                                                  • 4556

                                                  #654
                                                  Interesting follow, keep up the good work fellas, and I'll continue reading onward!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Tommygunn
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 02-26-09
                                                    • 669

                                                    #655
                                                    Thank you. It doesnt do much good posting them after some of the games have started
                                                    Comment
                                                    • HoulihansTX
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 02-12-09
                                                      • 30566

                                                      #656
                                                      Predicted ML

                                                      Arizona
                                                      Dodgers
                                                      Mets
                                                      Milwaukee

                                                      Angels
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HoulihansTX
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 02-12-09
                                                        • 30566

                                                        #657
                                                        Predicted ML

                                                        Add Seattle np <-115

                                                        Bart, feel free to add to my list. I'm a bit hurried.

                                                        BOL to everyone
                                                        Comment
                                                        • barts185
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 12-13-09
                                                          • 815

                                                          #658
                                                          Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                                          Predicted ML

                                                          Add Seattle np <-115

                                                          Bart, feel free to add to my list. I'm a bit hurried.

                                                          BOL to everyone

                                                          Okay, being upfront about the fact that I've never felt 100% on these because I could never get answers to some questions, here's what I came up with for today.

                                                          Plays

                                                          MIL
                                                          NYM
                                                          LAD
                                                          ARI




                                                          No plays / possible plays:


                                                          PHI no line is too high.

                                                          ATL np line is too high.


                                                          The LAA/KAN game is an example of one I could never figure out last season.

                                                          If looking at the home team, KAN -110 compared to 100 is no play. But, if you look at the away team, flip the -110 to +110 and compare to -120 would be a 30 cent difference and could indicate a play on LAA.

                                                          Same with SFO/STL -170 compared to -155 no play. +170 compared to +135 is a 35 cent difference which could indicate a play on STL which would be ruled out due to being on a 2 game losing streak.


                                                          BOS np line is too high


                                                          Regarding SEA, I agree. With a projected line of +110, if the actual line goes to -115 or worse (-116, -117, etc.) then SEA would be a play.
                                                          Last edited by barts185; 05-30-11, 12:55 PM. Reason: added comment about SEA
                                                          Comment
                                                          • HoulihansTX
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 02-12-09
                                                            • 30566

                                                            #659
                                                            The four teams listed by Bart are agreed up by both of us, so we will make those official. The rest:Angels/Seattle are left for the individual bettor to play of not play.

                                                            Thank you bart for your contributions, and everyone make some money.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • rask7rask7
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 10-01-10
                                                              • 159

                                                              #660
                                                              best of luck today !!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Formulawiz
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 1589

                                                                #661
                                                                Guys thanks for posting yesterday.

                                                                ML system went 4-1, +2.8
                                                                YTD 30-15, 9.95

                                                                Although I played SEA yesterday I did not find them to be a ML play.

                                                                By the way I was following ML plays towards the end of April and it was on fire before I started keeping official records. If I had to guess it hit at a 70% clip and that is pretty good.

                                                                ML plays later today.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ShivaBowl
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-09-10
                                                                  • 5133

                                                                  #662
                                                                  TPR system went 1-0, Yesterday +1.00u
                                                                  STL np if >-150 N/P
                                                                  DET –139 W
                                                                  YTD 33-32 +1.17u

                                                                  H/A Plays went 1-0 Yesterday +1.00u

                                                                  TOR –108 W
                                                                  YTD +3.28u
                                                                  Since 05/24 12-1

                                                                  TPR Plays, 05/31
                                                                  NYY 1.9
                                                                  STL 1.9 n/p if >-150
                                                                  DET 1.4 n/p if >-150
                                                                  BOS 1.3 n/p BOS L/2

                                                                  H/A Plays, 05/31

                                                                  No Plays


                                                                  Complimentary Selection from Sportrends for 5/31/2011

                                                                  Take NY Mets W/Dickey over Pittsburgh W/McDonald NO PLAY if NYM > -130
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Kindred
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 09-09-08
                                                                    • 2901

                                                                    #663
                                                                    I only skimmed through, but this is actually a thread without a chase system correct?

                                                                    Didn't think they existed in the MLB section, good job Shiva. Will look into how you make your plays later today when I have more time looks very interesting, GL today
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Formulawiz
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 01-12-09
                                                                      • 1589

                                                                      #664
                                                                      ML plays today. Must be < -140

                                                                      MIL, NYM
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • HoulihansTX
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 02-12-09
                                                                        • 30566

                                                                        #665
                                                                        Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                                                        (May 5 - Current)
                                                                        (44-34) +5.95Units

                                                                        May30 BPR

                                                                        Seattle 6.79 W (-115)
                                                                        Pitt 2.97 L (+100)
                                                                        Colorado 2.65 L (+105)
                                                                        Angels 2.26 W (-110)
                                                                        .
                                                                        (May 5 - Current)
                                                                        (46-36) +5.95Units

                                                                        May31 BPR

                                                                        Seattle 4.73
                                                                        Yanks 4.33
                                                                        Angels 4.20
                                                                        Houston 3.01
                                                                        Texas 2.04
                                                                        Milwaukee 1.26


                                                                        Philly np>-150
                                                                        Detroit np>-150
                                                                        Cleveland np L2
                                                                        Pitt np L2
                                                                        Florida np L2
                                                                        Colorado np L2
                                                                        Atl np(Padres W2)

                                                                        BOL
                                                                        .
                                                                        Comment
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