gl on your plays today
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how can we fade both mets and giants , they playing each other?Comment -
has anyone ever checked the opposite of this system. It a team shuts another team out then they will NOT win 1 of their next six games and if a team gets shut out the will win 1 of their next 6 games.Comment -
separate your labby lines and input the games. This system is treating baseball like a process of manually inputting data in a computer.
It's not fun but I'm going through the motions and placing each bet on a corresponding labby line making sure the numbers are all equal in each separate labby (game 1 and 2 for me two lines right now, game 3 and 4 has one and game 4 and 5 has one as well) the numbers on the lines are swelling up a bit but there are definitely numbers that are being crossed off every day.
You can't even get your mind involved with this system. Place your bets accordingly and don't pick and choose. Trust me when I say that I understand systems and I enjoy playing many of them throughout the year. This one is something "special". Read into that as you wish... let's keep pushing through this thing.Comment -
Got to keep pushing through, it's been a rough week for this system.Comment -
Nice start to the day!
METS and DETROIT 2times, come through Early. Damn we all needed a good start for today.
keep it going!Comment -
Nice start, lets see if we can finish with a bang tonight. It's MUCH needed.Comment -
Playing the tail side is a loser- 2 system losses in 1 week. I think there has to be a filter of some sort. Maybe rpi or winning record.Comment -
Just the law of averages, system two will level out. Both systems could have streaks, good and bad. Currently system one is right around the .500 mark, my guess is that system two has been about 10 games under .500 over the last week.Comment -
I don't understand what you mean by .500 mark. I don't look at them as single games but as whole 6 game systems. I only bet on the last few games so I miss many oppurtunties but in should be able to cover my risk exposure. That's not the case this past week- except for my risk exposure.Comment -
Potential filter?
I didn't check all of the system #2 losses, but I think The one filter I saw that might be helpful so far this season, is to potentially PASS on the play if playing against a team rated in the top 7 or 8 in team pitching.
I believe in the system, and I hope this statement doesn't detract from the spirit of the thread. It's just a thought.
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Honeyeater,
I was looking at my chicken scratch notes, and noticed since 4/26 and including 5/5
straight up win/loss record for:
System 1 = 18-15 (i was noting that this record would be 3 games above 50% or .500 mark)
System 2 = 17-26 (i was noting that this record would be 9 games below 50% or .500 mark)
I think I read somewhere that overall, breaking down the games, Game 1 to Game 6, you will see that the system has about a 50/50, coin flip chance to win on any given play.
For example, If system #2 were to go 26-17 over the next 10 days (5/6 to 5/16), system #2 would also be performing closer to the 50% winning mark.
hope this helps.Comment -
gl on your plays todayComment -
System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):
fade Mets game 2
fade Red Sox game 1
System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 6 game chase):
tail Nationals game 4
tail Giants game 2
tail Angels game 1
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this threadComment -
Original 2 sytems:
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+++ Shutout System - tail a team for 6 games +++
6 year total 1549-18 0.989
Game 1: 825-742 0.526
Game 2: 372-370 0.501
Game 3: 201-169 0.543
Game 4: 81-88 0.479
Game 5: 52-36 0.591
Game 6: 18-18 0.5
Total Bets: 1549-1423 0.521
+++ Shutout System - fade a team for 6 games +++
6 year total 1540-26 0.983
Game 1: 787-779 0.503
Game 2: 377-402 0.484
Game 3: 195-207 0.485
Game 4: 107-100 0.517
Game 5: 48-52 0.48
Game 6: 26-26 0.5
Total Bets: 1540-1566 0.496
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Your proposed alternate 2 systems:
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+++ Shutout System - tail a team for 6 games +++
6 year total 1371-25 0.982
Game 1: 657-739 0.471
Game 2: 369-370 0.499
Game 3: 175-195 0.473
Game 4: 84-111 0.431
Game 5: 55-56 0.495
Game 6: 31-25 0.554
Total Bets: 1371-1496 0.478
+++ Shutout System - fade a team for 6 games +++
6 year total 1362-37 0.974
Game 1: 698-701 0.499
Game 2: 338-363 0.482
Game 3: 151-212 0.416
Game 4: 97-115 0.458
Game 5: 50-65 0.435
Game 6: 28-37 0.431
Total Bets: 1362-1493 0.477
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With your alternate system, you are losing in every aspect. In a 6 year span, you go from a system winning % of 0.989 and 0.983 to 0.982 and 0.974.
If you only care about every individual bet, you are still losing. From 0.521 and 0.496 to 0.478 and 0.477.
With good labby and bankroll management, you might not see that much difference, since you only need to win >33% with a labby, but also note that you have decreased the amount of system plays. For example: if you are tailing Team A and it wins 3-0, it will not only win you the system play, but also start another one. In your system, you are fading a team that has shut out another one .. let's say they lose the next game 0-3, then you win your system play, but there isn't another one you can start because you depend on team A to actually shut another team out.
And for people who want to add some kind of filter. Go ahead and do it. Add your custom filter .. or just look at the schedule of the next 6 games once another chase starts and decide if you want to follow the chase. A system is a system because there is no handicapping involved. I don't have the time and knowledge to handicap the games, so I just go by "if A then do B" system.
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here's to SF, angels, washington all winning for us and the red sox losing.
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What a great day for System 2. Was about time to also hit some consecutive wins. I feel bad for people who were bitching about the losing stretch lately and have checked out of this thread just before we hit a winning stretch
System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):
fade Mets game 3
fade Brewers game 1
fade Phillies game 1
System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 6 game chase):
tail Cardinals game 1
tail Braves game 1
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this threadComment -
Best of luck this weekend guysComment -
damn... alooot of plays tonightComment -
a lot of ridiculous plays that will go against each other. Too many shutouts. 17 plays! Anyone wanna express their feeling towards this system so far? I'm staying with this until I clear my lines, whether that takes a week or all season, I'm gonna keep at it. When all the lines are clear, I'm checking out. Too many great systems to follow besides this one. I've spent so many hours tracking this one and I do see profits but the effort level and the fact that it's no fun at all to play it makes me have to drop it as soon my lines clear.
Good luck to all of us on this tedious and bumpy rideComment -
OMG, insane day today!! Too bad that we also lost every bet yesterday. At least we will win some bets today for sure
.. I hope you guys use proper money managment!! I don't even know who to root for today - I just placed my bets and hope that the account balance at my sportsbook shows more $ tomorrow than today lol
System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):
fade Mets game 4
fade Brewers game 2
fade Phillies game 2
fade Blue Jays game 1
fade Cardinals game 1
fade Twins game 1
fade Braves game 1
fade Mariners game 1
fade Padres game 1
System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 6 game chase):
tail Cardinals game 2
tail Braves game 2
tail Tigers game 1
tail Brewers game 1
tail Phillies game 1
tail Red Sox game 1
tail Diamondbacks game 1
tail White Sox game 1
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this threadComment -
Best of luck today on your playsComment -
Monster day
Monster Day for Both sides of the System!
Based on Fading the team deeper into the Chase, just makes sense to me.
System One 6-1
System Two 5-1
Great Weekend!
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Best of luck with your picksComment -
Awesome day yesterday
We also had some new shutouts, so there should be no shortage of new plays. Not all of them are played today though...
System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):
fade Padres game 2
fade Rockies game 1
System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 6 game chase):
tail Brewers game 2
tail Phillies game 2
tail Marlins game 1
tail Reds game 1
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this threadComment -
A lot of plays again today...
System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):
fade Rockies game 2
fade Cardinals game 2
fade Braves game 2
fade Nationals game 1
fade Cubs game 1
fade Angels game 1
System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 6 game chase):
tail Marlins game 2
tail Diamondbacks game 2
tail Giants game 1
tail White Sox game 1
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this threadComment -
gl on your plays todayComment -
System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):
fade Cardinals game 3
fade Angels game 2
fade Nationals game 2
fade Diamondbacks game 1
System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 6 game chase):
tail Diamondbacks game 3
tail White Sox game 2
tail Giants game 1
For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this threadComment -
Btw: I have some stuff going on in the next few days, so I don't know if I'll be able to update this thread. I'll do my best ..
But maybe nobody cares anymore anyway judging from traffic in this thread lolComment -
once again, this is not a fun or rewarding system to play. It ties up a bunch of bankroll but I'm still in it to win it. For now at least.Comment -
Common, i really appreciate your work and really want u to continuing posting playsComment -
Let's have some winners todayComment
