Gamblers laying -150 or more in baseball

[jorge1]

Id like to respond to some of you...RESPECTFULLY, of course!

Using your logic... in the long run, betting IN GENERAL is a sure "lose". --------------------------- In reality though, a bet is all about value. Like Loblaw said, if you see value in -150, then you should play it. The bad thing is that most people use the wrong stats (pitchers/hitters L3/L5 games, hitters hitting .500 against a pitcher in 10 AB's) with no predictive value, so their perceived value isn't actually real.

This is true...it is about value. if there is value in a game, no matter what the line is you can bet it...at this pt, its about knowing how much of your BR is it safe to bet?

Its all about your break even point. The lower it is the high your chances of making money gets.

true, this is true...figuring your habits is crucial. For example, i calculated this this morning for my current MLB season:

# plays: 86
# won: 49
win%: ~56.97%
risked: 78.03x
to win: 93.87x
NET WON: 21.15x

So my average line is 93.87/78.03 = +120.30 which means that my break even is roughly 40%, yet im hitting roughly 57%...

so its about a combo of high winning percentage and good line value.

Saying that betting teams -150 is bad is copmpletly wrong. Just like any other sport it depends on the pitcher and various other components. This like saying that betting a basketball team thatis -3 is wrong. You cant generalize all bets just beacuse of the ML. These bets just like any other depend on if you win. If you pick the right teams you make $$$$, simple as that.

a spread in basketball is a TOTALLY different monster than betting a ML in baseball...there is SOOOO MUCH DIFFERENCE, and im sorry to point this out...but its true.

for one, if u bet LAKERS -3 at -110, you are risking 110, to win 100...that is a good risk/gain value, compared to a -180 line on the Yankees...the reason why is this:

yanks win, lets say, 60% of their games, and LAKERS win by more than 3, lets say for arguments sake, 60% of the time...how can you say its the same? when you have same odds of winning, in this example of course, and you have -110 price in one, and -200 in another...

its a whole different thing to compare big spreads to ML lines...

Houli would you say that gambler's who take long shots at +150 or higher is equally bad?

I wouldnt think so...+150 isnt a long shot guys..it honestly isnt...its not like once in a while a +150 dog wins...it happens EVERYDAY...its because baseball is ALL about public perception...well, all sports are...but bases is all about pitcher perception...

for example, last night...CLEVELAND talbot vs BOS matsuzaka...can you honestly tell me it surprises you or its a LONG SHOT that cleveland beat a STRUGGLING SOX club? it was no surprise to me, which is why i bet it..but why the high price? because the public bets that BOSTON comes out their early slump and raises the line..EVERYONE swears they are coming out of it, and you wanna know how many units ive already cashed against them? jeje...its been profitable to say the least...public perception man!

I've been playing dogs and unless u pick ur spots, ur still gonna lose

this is true...you cannot jsut pick blindly, but surprisingly so, if you were to NOT know a line...just followed sports and picked winners in baseball games, alot of those might be dogs...this is one thing i do..i pick games without knowing prices..i have a GOOD idea of the price, ofcourse..but i try to cap without line price..then i weed out expensive prices, or even take the opposition if the price is too high just to ride the dog.

Sadly a lot of people just don't get it and never will. Your winning percentage is far more important than the prices you are betting.... (obviously in relation to what kind of juice you are laying)

winning percentage is important, true. you cant just go and blindly bet +200 dogs just to bet them because there is a high return, but in reality, its a combo...i think its a combination of the two, and MOST important of all, is MONEY MANAGEMENT...

Line value is extremely important, but you must match it to your winning percentage..you gotta be aware of both, and of your money management techniques...if not...you go broke, which is 97% of the US bettors...

in conclusion fellas, this is my point...this is like a sport..there are many techniques, and many ways of doing it..if you are getting + money at the end of the day in your BR, then NO ONE can tell you whats right or wrong...NO ONE!

for example...i play dogs...i average value of +120 on all bets so far this year...and i do not take anything above -135ish -140. i make profit...ive made 21 units so far in the season, and grinding my way to 100 by the mid season...youd say im a dog bettor...who tells me im wrong if im MAKING PROFIT?

then on the other hand is my dawg soony...i wanted to point him out, RESPECTFULLY, just to show different styles in the game...he plays faves most of the time..so far this year i think he has played 3 games at plus money...he averages -143 lines...

BUT WHO CAN KNOCK the man if he is turning profits EVERYDAY??

im not tryin to call him out at all or anything like that..he is my dawg..i respect his work, and honestly, he is a monster at cappin bases..honestly is! he hits around 70-something percent of his plays and is constantly postin winners, and cashin...

so which style is better? a capper like me who looks for dogs and value and hits 56%, or a capper like him that looks for winners and hits 75%?

NEITHER! we both make it at the end of the day, which is what matters....I couldnt even try to do what he does because i simply dont knwo how to turn 75% winners...he does...

so no wrong or right way, just your way...

BOL TO ALL and enjoy the discussion...PLEASE, no one get offended by my response...

JORGE

[HoulihansTX]

Reds Sox -180 today...

Sign here if you are a sucker......

This is the biggest chase play of the year so far.

[jorge1]

Reds Sox -180 today... Sign here if you are a sucker...... This is the biggest chase play of the year so far.

lol...true..and imma continue to fade them till they beat me twice...

[ebbearsfb1]

That might be the longest post in sbr history

[CHAZ]

Tell that to the guy who bets the basketball lines at -1200 lol

[EXhoosier10]

Reds Sox -180 today...

Sign here if you are a sucker......

This is the biggest chase play of the year so far.

Choo, Santana, and Kearns haven't hit lefties nearly as well as they hit righties for their careers. Lester pitched like an ace against a weak offense who have an even worse middle of the order (at least, worse than perceived since they are worse against LHP than the average RHP) just as I expected. With Lester on the bump against a bad offense, I will bet that lefty heavy offense EVERY SINGLE TIME they are under -180 (got them at -175), no matter how they are hitting.

Statistics have shown that there is very little (if any) predictive value in a player's last 5 games worth of data compared to their last 1500 PA's. Yes, I lost this time. It happens. I will, however, continue to bet based on proven facts instead of some kind of "fade a losing streak" idea.

[HoulihansTX]

Boston was on the road laying -180, and have failed to win a game this season.

Win or lose Boston ML was a bad bet..

[Inspirited]

favorites on 5 game losing streaks have not been money makers according to one database.

[warriorfan707]

Boston was on the road laying -180, and have failed to win a game this season.

Win or lose Boston ML was a bad bet..