The New No Home Series Sweep Thread

[daneault23]

I think so Skiv, I'm with 5Dimes and they only seem to offer +/-1.5 and +/-2.5 RL options.

I also have 5Dimes, and they have +/- 1, +/- 2, +/- 1.5 and +/- 2.5 RL options.

[Cosmo213]

Oh good, they weren't there earlier in the day.

The late money seems to be coming in for Boston, if anyone was curious.

[balls2wall]

What's this -1 run calculator thingy?

Here ya go skiv. I am attaching the spreadsheet I have to calculate it. This is a good tool.


You basically bet a certain amount on the -1.5rl and a certain amount on the ml both depending on what the odds are which gives you the equivalent of the -1rl that most books don't offer. It is a good way to reduce the juice on some of these games on big favorites.

[SkivChef]

balls, thanks for the info. can u explain it?

[reverend]

lets do this boys!

[Cosmo213]

We have our first win! Boston over NY Yankees!

[reverend]

Great win #1 for our system!

[Bluemonk]

I also have 5Dimes, and they have +/- 1, +/- 2, +/- 1.5 and +/- 2.5 RL options.

5Dimes does not offer -1RL's. Not sure where this rumor started but they never have offered that option. Use the -1 Calc posted on this forum which is easy to use and works very well.

[Cosmo213]

Yes they do. Maybe not for everything but I saw the option with my own eyes for the NY @ Boston game. Like I said in an earlier post it wasn't available until fairly close to the opening pitch.

[IWinMyBets]

Great Start! Good Job!

[Patrick Adams]

What series chases do we like for tomorrow?

[Patrick Adams]

Oh and does sportsbook.com offer the -1.5 RL?

[Bluemonk]

Cosmo, You are correct. After signing up for an account on their site yesterday I checked the lines for tonights game and they only had -+1.5 and -+2.5 available. I double checked with the live chat and they also claimed not to ever offer -1 RL's. After seeing your post I contacted them again and they mentioned they do offer -1RL's but the times that they are available are not set in stone. Explains why you saw the line right before the game started. Thanks for the clarification and wasn't trying to take a shot at anyone as we're all on the same side.

Best of Luck

[jaxjonesdrew32]

wow this system seems amazing. i'm just going to forget about my strategy for this season and fade you guys. gl to us all!

[jaxjonesdrew32]

does bodog do -1 RL??

[IWinMyBets]

Sportsbook.Com

Oh and does sportsbook.com offer the -1.5 RL?

Yes they do offer the -1.5 run line wager. Many times they post the money line the night before, and the run line the day of the game. Keep checking back.

They are not highly regarded here at SBR if you look over the sportsbook reviews....but I haven't personally had a problem with them.

5Dimes and Betjamaica offer alternative as well as -1.5 run lines too.

[daneault23]

5Dimes does not offer -1RL's. Not sure where this rumor started but they never have offered that option. Use the -1 Calc posted on this forum which is easy to use and works very well.

Yea as was mentioned before i guess it was only there for a bit. Anyways, now you know for the future.

[thebestthereis]

i am fading the entire forum and myself. my dog brings me my picks.

[Wrigley]

be cool to see how this plays out

[Boner_18]

1 win for this system. Now you lay off the rest of the Yanks/Sox series right?

[stingyrivers]

fade away and get rich has been what I have said to any dissenters from the beginning....

what I do have to say is 1 down... 149 to go.... and yes, the Boston series is done as a play, one unit goal met... onto the next plays.... which should be up in the picks thread by 11 am eastern.... today there should be around 4 plays.... and if we are very lucky after day two we will only have 145 more wins to accumulate....

let's get it done

[Bazz27]

Best of luck guys

MLB is set up for the chase. I am a professional sports bettor (I do this for a living) and I chase.

Keep up the good work and I hope you guys have a profitable season.

BOL

Hi mate, what you think of JM MLB chase system, he says it starts tomorrow

[seanjohn007]

as far as the -1 talk at 5dimes. they do offer it but only on espn games where a lot of money will be coming in. so for the vast majority of games its just ml or -/+1.5

[do5000]

fade away and get rich has been what I have said to any dissenters from the beginning....

what I do have to say is 1 down... 149 to go.... and yes, the Boston series is done as a play, one unit goal met... onto the next plays.... which should be up in the picks thread by 11 am eastern.... today there should be around 4 plays.... and if we are very lucky after day two we will only have 145 more wins to accumulate....

let's get it done

for today i've got CHW and ARI as system plays and LAA and PHI as others.
i'm considering TEX and LAD as well.

[stingyrivers]

LAA for the most part is a system play as well... they are 51 - 0 in avoiding a home sweep in the past three years... though I can see the angle that they arent quite as strong this year as they have been

[do5000]

LAA for the most part is a system play as well... they are 51 - 0 in avoiding a home sweep in the past three years... though I can see the angle that they arent quite as strong this year as they have been

makes sense.

i think im going to play LAD, TEX and PHI as -1 RL. if they win im done, if they push i'll skip the rest of that series and if they lose ill continue to chase.

[jaxjonesdrew32]

makes sense.

i think im going to play LAD, TEX and PHI as -1 RL. if they win im done, if they push i'll skip the rest of that series and if they lose ill continue to chase.

Watch out for the Jays. I'm sooooo tempted to play LAD, but I'm going to avoid it.

[fjordo]

Im wondering if anyone has stats on all teams, from last year, or even for multiple years, for home and away series? I am interested because it looks like most will be playing the top 4 or so, and betting against the bottom few, but what about teams like the dodgers, cubs, giants, mariners, you know, those in between teams, how many times have they been swept at home?

[Cosmo213]

balls, thanks for the info. can u explain it?

I can explain.

The spreadsheet is used to simulate a -1 RL when your sportsbook of choice doesn't offer a -1 RL or isn't consistently available. We plan to use this in the event of a heavy favorite losing the first 2 games of a series we're betting on or possibly whenever the amount of money risked during a chase makes you uncomfortable.

I'll set up an example. Let's say we're betting to win $100 on a -160 favorite. That team has unexpectedly lost the first two games. Our losses at this point would be exactly $416 under this system. To use the money line for the third game at this point would require a bet of $825.60 to make up for the losses and profit $100. This is the Achilles' heel of this system, massive losses can result if a big favorite goes 0-3. Although the probability of a win is reduced, using the -1 RL will offer substantially better odds than the -160 ML so that less money is risked as well as providing the possibility of a push which the -1.5 RL prohibits. If you sportsbook doesn't make that available you use the spreadsheet.

Looking at the spreadsheet, the gray boxes are spots where you need to input information to make it work. Since we'll almost always be betting on the favorite you can ignore the ones labeled for the underdog for now. First you enter the odds for the ML and -1.5 RL for the team in question in the top section. The estimated -1 RL odds will be displayed in the white section just below that (informational only, you don't do anything with it yourself). Then in the lower section you enter the "to win" value for the favorite, which is your loss as of now + the amount you've been trying to win on the series. So in this case it's 416 + 100 = $516. After that your total bet size will be displayed to the left. Below that is how you should split this amount between the ML and -1.5 RL.

For this example I'm using the -160 ML and a +110 -1.5 RL (I'm just guessing on that one, I have no idea what the RL odds would really be). The results are the total amount risked being $638.80, which is $186.74 less than a straight ML bet at these odds, split $393.14 to win $245.71 on the ML and $245.71 to win $270.29 on the -1.5 RL. With these bets in place, if the favorite wins by 2+ runs, you profit $100 exactly as planned. If the favorite wins by only one run, the result is 0. A push just like the -1 RL but you've still lost some money for the series. Losing both bets will be $186.74 less painful than a straight ML bet would've been.

Sorry if that was more than you wanted to know but I wanted to be as thorough as possible so that this post could be referred to again in the future.

as far as the -1 talk at 5dimes. they do offer it but only on espn games where a lot of money will be coming in. so for the vast majority of games its just ml or -/+1.5

Good to know, thanks!

[sapidoc]

stingy (or anyone betting on pinnacle), I notice on Pinny when you place your bets there is a checkbox below each that says:
R. Halladay must start J. Lannan must start (for example the Phillies game).

Two questions:

#1) Is it good to leave this checked, Or do we not care if that pitcher starts?
If we should not check it, then no further questions, but if we decide to:
a) If we should leave it checked and the bet is canceled because he did not start, then I assume that the series is done and we have no risk or reward potential in it.
b) If we should leave it checked and the GAME1 is a loss then do we leave it checked for GAME2 ? (potential situation where he doesn't start the later games and we lose ability to chase)

Thanks guys, any comments appreciated.

[JW Cash]

Why not go with the Yankees to win one of the next 2 games?

I dont think they will lose 3 straight to Boston.. just sayin...

[balls2wall]

I can explain.

The spreadsheet is used to simulate a -1 RL when your sportsbook of choice doesn't offer a -1 RL or isn't consistently available. We plan to use this in the event of a heavy favorite losing the first 2 games of a series we're betting on or possibly whenever the amount of money risked during a chase makes you uncomfortable.

I'll set up an example. Let's say we're betting to win $100 on a -160 favorite. That team has unexpectedly lost the first two games. Our losses at this point would be exactly $416 under this system. To use the money line for the third game at this point would require a bet of $825.60 to make up for the losses and profit $100. This is the Achilles' heel of this system, massive losses can result if a big favorite goes 0-3. Although the probability of a win is reduced, using the -1 RL will offer substantially better odds than the -160 ML so that less money is risked as well as providing the possibility of a push which the -1.5 RL prohibits. If you sportsbook doesn't make that available you use the spreadsheet.

Looking at the spreadsheet, the gray boxes are spots where you need to input information to make it work. Since we'll almost always be betting on the favorite you can ignore the ones labeled for the underdog for now. First you enter the odds for the ML and -1.5 RL for the team in question in the top section. The estimated -1 RL odds will be displayed in the white section just below that (informational only, you don't do anything with it yourself). Then in the lower section you enter the "to win" value for the favorite, which is your loss as of now + the amount you've been trying to win on the series. So in this case it's 416 + 100 = $516. After that your total bet size will be displayed to the left. Below that is how you should split this amount between the ML and -1.5 RL.

For this example I'm using the -160 ML and a +110 -1.5 RL (I'm just guessing on that one, I have no idea what the RL odds would really be). The results are the total amount risked being $638.80, which is $186.74 less than a straight ML bet at these odds, split $393.14 to win $245.71 on the ML and $245.71 to win $270.29 on the -1.5 RL. With these bets in place, if the favorite wins by 2+ runs, you profit $100 exactly as planned. If the favorite wins by only one run, the result is 0. A push just like the -1 RL but you've still lost some money for the series. Losing both bets will be $186.74 less painful than a straight ML bet would've been.

Sorry if that was more than you wanted to know but I wanted to be as thorough as possible so that this post could be referred to again in the future.

Good to know, thanks!

thanks cosmo. You did a better job of explaining than I would have.


sorry skivchef, I didn't see your post

[SkivChef]

no problem balls

[Cosmo213]

Why not go with the Yankees to win one of the next 2 games?

I dont think they will lose 3 straight to Boston.. just sayin...

You are free to bet however you please, but such a thing is beyond the scope of this system so it wouldn't be included here.

[mncosoldier]

So the big question is are we using the ml or the -1.5rl.