The New No Home Series Sweep Thread

[stingyrivers]

top 5 teams... bottom 5 teams... 3 game home series, and fade the bad on the road... 200 plays or around that on the year... and if you ever run into a 3 game sweep and lose a "C" bet, you can always pull the trigger on a "D" bet on game one of the next home series... if you want to... lets hope it never gets to that point...

now... back to selecting teams....

[reverend]

stingy...

i think we may would have something if you played it as a 4 game chase, and picked the top and bottom 5 and expanded it as the season goes on. and also have the option to pass on a series and to cherry pick a game on the back end of a series if you are headed for the D bet.

[stingyrivers]

I am going to categorize my list... teir 1: NYY, Boston teir 2) TB, teir 3) CWS, LAA, St L

and the worst.... teir 1) Wash, Pitt teir 2) KC, SD teir 3) Hou, Clev

any thoughts on that?

was thinking...

teir 1 = pretty much always play

teir 2 = only play if the match ups looks good

teir 3 = only play if they are up against a pretty bad team (Home), or a decent team (Away fades)

[reverend]

top 5 teams... bottom 5 teams... 3 game home series, and fade the bad on the road... 200 plays or around that on the year... and if you ever run into a 3 game sweep and lose a "C" bet, you can always pull the trigger on a "D" bet on game one of the next home series... if you want to... lets hope it never gets to that point...

now... back to selecting teams....

this is how i am leaning as well. knowing a d bet is in the back pocket if needed.

as far as teams:

i really see these teams being brutal this year:

PIT
SD
WASH
KC
TOR
CLEV
HOU

Locked teams:

NYY
BOS
TB

Heavy lean to:

STL
CWS
SF
COL
LAA

Like but wait and see:

DET
ATL (great pitching staff)
LAD
SEA
PHIL (ballpark is scary and back of rotation is ?)

[reverend]

I know we were hesitant of boston in their first series against yanks, but the more i look at it, i really like boston to take 2 of 3.

sabathia is a slow starter.

i would take boston's top 3 pitchers everyday over yankees top 3.

[reverend]

Opening Series:

Locked In in my mind:

Phils @ Wash
Stl @ Cin
Lad @ Pit
Clev @ CWS
SD @ AZ
NYY @ Bos


Leans:

Tor @ Tex
Det @ KC
SF @ Hou


Thats 9 series right there...

[stingyrivers]

I am in complete agreement with your list and its order.... and I cant see boston getting swept at home to set that tone to the season... I see that series as win number one in our season, if not sunday night almost certainly in game two

[stingyrivers]

I see the same thing in the first week, in the opening series... I see about 4 or 5 almost certain wins... Philly at wash is an even stronger play than a home series with most decent teams.... no way that is a loss...

it is outside the scope of this system, which bothered some, but I think for a series like that, you have to have room in the system for exceptions that are extremely likely to win

[reverend]

2nd Set of Series for the first week:

Locked in my mind:

Clev @ Det
SD @ Col
Phils @ Hou
Bos @ KC
Pit @ AZ

Leans:

NYY @ TB


thats 6 more. we could be 15-0 after the first week of the season!

[stingyrivers]

that is what I been seeing... every week, there is a handful of series that are almost gimmes... it isnt like we have to look hard for them... and I actually thinking averaging 10 plays a week and still having only solid picks as a strong possibility...

the only thing is we dont want to act lke it is a race to 200 and taking any mismatch possible... it is a long season... and 10 a week gets you 200 by sept 1

[rydaphotoguy]

This looks solid guys!

[DuncHen22]

2nd Set of Series for the first week: Locked in my mind: Clev @ Det SD @ Col Phils @ Hou Bos @ KC Pit @ AZ Leans: NYY @ TB thats 6 more. we could be 15-0 after the first week of the season!

You don't think Boston can sweep KC? I think TB is safer than KC.

[reverend]

that is what I been seeing... every week, there is a handful of series that are almost gimmes... it isnt like we have to look hard for them... and I actually thinking averaging 10 plays a week and still having only solid picks as a strong possibility...

the only thing is we dont want to act lke it is a race to 200 and taking any mismatch possible... it is a long season... and 10 a week gets you 200 by sept 1

your right. i think it will come more into play once teams get on different schedule with their off days and such. we will just want to make sure the pitching matchups are in our favor.

[khaden]

that is what I been seeing... every week, there is a handful of series that are almost gimmes... it isnt like we have to look hard for them... and I actually thinking averaging 10 plays a week and still having only solid picks as a strong possibility...

the only thing is we dont want to act lke it is a race to 200 and taking any mismatch possible... it is a long season... and 10 a week gets you 200 by sept 1

I agree--we have to be very DISCIPLINE in using this. I think we pick our top 3-5 and bottom 3-5 on the road and stick to that--and "cherry pick" a series or two a week as they come up. At the end of each month we can re-evaulate the top teams and bottom teams.

[stingyrivers]

dunchen... his list was taking a couple strong road teams not to get swept... like Boston... I think, as well as Philly...

If we go week by week and make sure we have the pitching match up advantage, as well as the lineup advantage in each series... it would be a complete shock to run into a sweep...

and like you said... MLB is kind of shifting to where there is slightly less parity in the league much like the NFL... the best are better, and the worst are weaker this year... growing trend in sports today... except in NCAAB damn tourney upsets

[stingyrivers]

I agree with all of this, and thanks for all the help guys...

so in other words... we arent thinktanking for the whole season right now in stone... right now we are think-tanking for week one... and we should be selecting week one plays... next weekend, we do the same for week 2 and at the end of each month we realign our lists based on who the best and worst really are...

it is really cool to have more than a few good guys all on the same page about this...

[DuncHen22]

dunchen... his list was taking a couple strong road teams not to get swept... like Boston... I think, as well as Philly...

If we go week by week and make sure we have the pitching match up advantage, as well as the lineup advantage in each series... it would be a complete shock to run into a sweep...

and like you said... MLB is kind of shifting to where there is slightly less parity in the league much like the NFL... the best are better, and the worst are weaker this year... growing trend in sports today... except in NCAAB damn tourney upsets

Oh sorry, I just thought he was listing home teams that wouldn't get swept.

I'm liking this thread. Looking forward to a good season!

[stingyrivers]

np man... you are more than welcome... it did get a little confusing because we saw there are some elite team on the road matchups that should be considered... such as Philly at wash... I mean, if that losses, it is the type of loss you would take a hundred times anytime it came around...

definitely look forward to working with you and all here for the whole season

[reverend]

yep. good work guys. lets ask the mods to keep this thread clean and free from bashers.

we want good analysis and conversation in here...common goal among us!

[stingyrivers]

has anyone considered what I am thinking about right now....

series that look very solid... full 1 unit plays... and those ones that look good but not 100% solid, play for a half unit?

even if you take a loss on one of those, the loss would be cut in half...

for instance: week 1

I am looking at

Philly
Boston
CWS
Ariz (fading sd)
TB

all as very solid, thus... one unit

then... there is

ST L
Lad
LAA

none of them should be swept, but not quite as much as the top list, so the chase in these three series for 1/2 unit??

after all, the way I am thinking of it is the goal being to average 10 wins a week, it doesnt matter how that 10 is broken up... and might as well not have added risk to a series that could conceivably be a sweep even though unexpected to be

[johanek78]

So on sunday 4th we have a bet A on the red sox!

[stingyrivers]

yes... thats the way I am starting... Sat night I am going to start a thread for the daily picks....

I am also going to be starting with a small baseball bankroll... so I realized how difficult it is going to be in managing plays on the fly... so I have to breakdown the season, and chart out all my plays for the year, which I am going to do today... that way I know how light I can go on picks in the first few weeks...

Lots of nice options this week, but I realized if I take them all and half of them go to a 'B' bet, I would be near all in on day two... so I am going to schedule roughly 200 plays for the year, right now...

now obviously, the wager schedule will be a guide and not necessarily fixed for the year, when each play comes up, it can be assessed at the time to determine if the trigger is pulled on it... but I think having all the plays laid out ahead of time will help... so by tonight I will have the season mapped out

[himeshforex]

stingy ....... i hope u can clear a few doubts....

1) are you going to play the chase or are you going to plays the picks as induvidual plays without chase

2) if a chase , how many open chases at maximum would u have at a certain time, this question is aimed at money managment only

3) if a chase, where do u stop , C OR D??

[johanek78]

yes... thats the way I am starting... Sat night I am going to start a thread for the daily picks....

I am also going to be starting with a small baseball bankroll... so I realized how difficult it is going to be in managing plays on the fly... so I have to breakdown the season, and chart out all my plays for the year, which I am going to do today... that way I know how light I can go on picks in the first few weeks...

Lots of nice options this week, but I realized if I take them all and half of them go to a 'B' bet, I would be near all in on day two... so I am going to schedule roughly 200 plays for the year, right now...

now obviously, the wager schedule will be a guide and not necessarily fixed for the year, when each play comes up, it can be assessed at the time to determine if the trigger is pulled on it... but I think having all the plays laid out ahead of time will help... so by tonight I will have the season mapped out

great!! Are you posting that schedule here or just posting the picks as they come?

Thanks! Johan.

[stingyrivers]

good questions....


1) I am definitely sticking to the original concept... so it is a chase against a team getting swept

2) your second question is why I am charting out the season now... when I looked at the first week I saw I could potentially have 5 chases going on at the same time, which is not a good idea... so I am hoping charting out the season helps in seeing how I can balance out the season more, because my honest gut feeling is there shouldnt really be more than 3 chases going on at once...

3) generally, the chase will be an A, B, C... as the series are 3 games long in general... but I will say, if there is early season success, a 'D' bet by me is an option down the road, in two different scenarios....

1. the home series I am playing is a four game series and the team I am playing on loses the first three
or
2. I am playing a home team and they get swept, and the next game is a home game where the matchup looks favorable, in other words, the team just got swept at home and is starting the next home series with a pitching matchup heavily in their favor...

but in general, this strategy is a 3 game chase against getting swept....

overall, I am hoping to have in the area of 200 plays on the year... optimum goal is to avoid a sweep all year... and I have a money management progression I will chart out at the beginning of the new thread made for the picks...

finally, when I finish today with the picks scehedule, I may put it up on here, just depends, I am thinking it is going to be too massive to put on a post... but maybe... either way, the picks will go up daily in the picks thread which will be graded with the running results and bankroll...

I am hoping this all works well and doesnt fall flat on its face lol....

[Stealinhome]

I like this

[illfuuptn]

If you don't have a C-game in your first 15 bets on 3 game series' I'll give you all a thousand dollars. It's going to be hilarious reading this when you guys are puking all over the place because you have to bet 40 Million dollars to win $20. I look forward to the epic-failure that is this thread and it's advocates.

[jolmscheid]

Thanks for the work Sting and Rev..I think that we should really think about doing the -1 RL as to help us with the juice..or even the -1.5 RL- I bet the results would show some more losses, but less risk...what do you think Sting? Rev?

[Sawyer]

People have prejudices about chase systems. As long as you limit your chase (by 2 or 3 games) and if you got a good plan/system, you can make profit on the long run.

Stingy,

Alternatively, you can chase these home teams after losing 1st game at home. So you'll chase for only 2 games. This way, you can decrease the martingale multiplier since you will chase for only 2 games. You can use -1.0 RL as well to reduce the juice as well.

Some people say what if Yanks get swept at home by Orioles? What if Dodgers get swept at home by lowly Padres? Guys, C'mon! These kind of things happen once every 10 year! Maybe 20

Don't forget to quit baseball after 1 September. Baseball goes crazy in September. July&August will be your most profitable months. Interleague may be dangerous.

GL Stingy!

[khaden]

Stingy,

I have a suggestion--why don't you chart out the plays for the month of April just for the Top 5 Teams and the bottom 5 Teams. I think to do the entire season would be too much to post like you said. Also, we may be modifying this depending on records etc. Also, I think we are adding too many non system extra series to start off with. I like the ones you posted based on last years records but I think those 'extra" series should be very selective and we should wait a couple series into the season. This will help avoid so many series going on at once. Like someon pointed out atleast in the beginning until we build our bankroll we dont want to have a pile of c bets going on at once.

[Lefttee]

Wish you guys the best of luck and will be checking in on this thread often.

[stingyrivers]

Thanks Sawyer... and to all who are supportive and open minded and helpful....

I think between the wait for loss in game one and use the - 1 RL, it seems the -1 RL is better... you miss too many wins by sitting out a game one, and the backtesting shows you need those game one wins to cushion the blow of any eventual loss...

taking a look at the whole season is kind of just an exercise to be more selective... I definitely agree that no play should be made ahead of time, and seperately analyzed leading into the series...

and it is too late, I already went through the whole season I pulled out 238 series on the season... primarily it is almost 100% top teams and the bottom ones on the fade... so now I will move onto screening some of those out... to be honest I was hoping for a rough sample closer to 300 so I could filter out a lot of them and still have close to 200... but now I am going to go through the 238, and see how many really adhere to the original concept and also seem like potentially solid against a sweep...

thanks again for everything guys... I like how is starting out with all the help and brainstorming going on between everyone...

[jolmscheid]

Going off of what Sawyer said...we COULD wait for a loss and then chase the next 2 games...yes, we would lose out on some losses, but our risk would be WAY less...that way we could also pick more series and have them going on at once too to still reach our 200 series goal...What do you guys think?

[DuncHen22]

Sorry, but can someone please explain this "-1 RL" strategy? I tried to go back and follow what you guys were saying but it was a little confusing.

[DuncHen22]

And here's another thing I wanted to mention: You REALLY need to pay attention to the weather. The last thing you want is for your team to lose its first two games and then get rained out on the 3rd game, thus denying you the chase. I've noticed its happened before when looking at backlogs, so be careful with that.

You can use this (http://www.weather.com/outlook/event...eventid=209684) to see the weather forecasts of the entire series. If a rainout looks likely, I'd probably stay away from it.

It's looking like good weather in Boston though!