Testing out a system

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  • brko
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-28-10
    • 415

    #106
    hey there SIS. in today's picks i find STL RL a bit tricky after yesterday's loss. i know what Salmon Steak said on resting the players on third game of series, but never the less those were Astros... i propose you to hedge a little bit. why don't you split your unit (whatever you wager on them, $5 still?) so that ML covers the RL? in this way you are in small loss instead of great in case STL wins +1 (-0.18u), and if wins +2 you gain more than a half unit (+0.64). Though line is too juicy to hedge. And you do this when your bookie doesn't give you -1 RL which would produce you a push. But this is (maybe) right direction when you have less juice on your plays. I know that it's me giving you extra homework but if you find my remark useful for 2nd thought, i'm glad. Will be watching your thread and
    Comment
    • soaked in sweat
      SBR MVP
      • 02-13-09
      • 1159

      #107
      hey brko, yeah i'm still only using $5 units to be safe so now, even tho i wish it were more. this year's test is just to get a feel for things before i decide if i should go big or not next year, so any ideas and input is much appreciated and will be taken into consideration. I will let the STL -1.5 wager ride out for tonight and look into betting the -1's instead of the -1.5's for the extra juicy ones next time.
      Comment
      • soaked in sweat
        SBR MVP
        • 02-13-09
        • 1159

        #108
        Originally posted by soaked in sweat
        Friday plays are:
        PHI -1.5, -119 tw 1 unit
        STL -1.5, +104 bet 1 unit
        PHI & STL parlay -101 tw 2 units
        2-1 today, +2 units

        thread record 23-7-1, +21.2 units
        Comment
        • Salmon Steak
          SBR MVP
          • 03-05-10
          • 2110

          #109
          Franklin blew your -1.5 in the 9th
          Comment
          • pitman
            SBR MVP
            • 08-15-09
            • 2216

            #110
            That should have been a perfect day,fukers.
            Good day none the less, plus day is always a good day.
            congrats
            Comment
            • soaked in sweat
              SBR MVP
              • 02-13-09
              • 1159

              #111
              Originally posted by Salmon Steak
              Franklin blew your -1.5 in the 9th
              ya that sucked, got robbed of 2 units I'm gunna start playing the -1's on the juicy ones. thanks to brko's post. Not sure how he knew STL would only win by one
              oh well won my money back from thursday.
              Comment
              • soaked in sweat
                SBR MVP
                • 02-13-09
                • 1159

                #112
                Originally posted by pitman
                That should have been a perfect day,fukers. Good day none the less, plus day is always a good day. congrats
                brutality
                Comment
                • MartinBlank
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 07-20-08
                  • 8382

                  #113
                  I lost the exact same way. Brutal stuff.
                  Comment
                  • soaked in sweat
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-13-09
                    • 1159

                    #114
                    looks like that 47 year old is pitching for PHI tomorrow
                    and florida will be using a crazy good pitcher vs STL
                    PHI & STL will still be plays tho.
                    Comment
                    • soaked in sweat
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-13-09
                      • 1159

                      #115
                      Originally posted by MartinBlank
                      I lost the exact same way. Brutal stuff.
                      fukkin bad beat
                      Comment
                      • scratbandit
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 09-07-09
                        • 548

                        #116
                        definitely like it for sure..
                        Comment
                        • sportsfanatic
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-10-07
                          • 3967

                          #117
                          Originally posted by Salmon Steak
                          Franklin blew your -1.5 in the 9th
                          yeah, that was brutal. a great day to an ok day.
                          Comment
                          • soaked in sweat
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-13-09
                            • 1159

                            #118
                            Saturday plays:
                            PHI -106 tw 1 unit
                            STL -107 tw 1 unit

                            not a great feeling about today because of the pitching match-ups, but i guess its worth a shot at those prices.
                            Comment
                            • soaked in sweat
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-13-09
                              • 1159

                              #119
                              Originally posted by soaked in sweat
                              Saturday plays:
                              PHI -106 tw 1 unit
                              STL -107 tw 1 unit :
                              yesterday 0-2, -2.13 units

                              thread record 23-9-1, +19.07 units
                              Comment
                              • soaked in sweat
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-13-09
                                • 1159

                                #120
                                Sunday Plays:
                                PHI -1, -132 tw 2 units
                                STL -1, -175 tw 2 units
                                Comment
                                • jolmscheid
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 02-20-10
                                  • 3256

                                  #121
                                  This looks pretty good...keep posting please
                                  Comment
                                  • jolmscheid
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 02-20-10
                                    • 3256

                                    #122
                                    Will be looking forwared to following this!!
                                    Comment
                                    • soaked in sweat
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-13-09
                                      • 1159

                                      #123
                                      Originally posted by soaked in sweat
                                      Sunday Plays:
                                      PHI -1, -132 tw 2 units
                                      STL -1, -175 tw 2 units
                                      went 1-1, -0.64 units

                                      thread record 24-10-1, +18.43 units.
                                      Comment
                                      • soaked in sweat
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-13-09
                                        • 1159

                                        #124
                                        crappy day today but could have been worse i guess, got extremely lucky the STL bet won with a 2 run homer in the 8th.
                                        Comment
                                        • jolmscheid
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 02-20-10
                                          • 3256

                                          #125
                                          Keep it going man
                                          Comment
                                          • soaked in sweat
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-13-09
                                            • 1159

                                            #126
                                            Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                            Keep it going man
                                            i will for sure man, the plan is to track it all season long.
                                            Comment
                                            • jolmscheid
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 02-20-10
                                              • 3256

                                              #127
                                              Please do so...I will be playing along with you...do you have any other systems for other sports??
                                              Comment
                                              • soaked in sweat
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-13-09
                                                • 1159

                                                #128
                                                Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                                Please do so...I will be playing along with you...do you have any other systems for other sports??
                                                nope, this is the only one soo far. the only other sport i bet on is hockey and did not have a good year
                                                I will be looking into testing this kinda system for hockey next season but until then its just mlb.
                                                I'm looking at it as this year's a long training session for something BIG next year.
                                                Comment
                                                • soaked in sweat
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-13-09
                                                  • 1159

                                                  #129
                                                  Monday play:
                                                  STL -128 tw 1 unit.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • soaked in sweat
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-13-09
                                                    • 1159

                                                    #130
                                                    adding STL -1.5, +130 bet 1 unit
                                                    Comment
                                                    • jolmscheid
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 02-20-10
                                                      • 3256

                                                      #131
                                                      Let's go get em soaked! And these are all 3 game chases correct?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jolmscheid
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 02-20-10
                                                        • 3256

                                                        #132
                                                        Oh wait I read back...so you are betting on the Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals, and Rays EVERY game they play unless they are playing a good team? AND you will not bet on them if they have a chance to sweep a series on the third game right? Just want to make sure that I am getting this right...thanks Soak
                                                        Comment
                                                        • G3ck0l0c0
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 03-28-10
                                                          • 407

                                                          #133
                                                          I like your system Soaked. Will follow this with interest.
                                                          Keep on going !
                                                          Comment
                                                          • soaked in sweat
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-13-09
                                                            • 1159

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by jolmscheid
                                                            Oh wait I read back...so you are betting on the Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals, and Rays EVERY game they play unless they are playing a good team? AND you will not bet on them if they have a chance to sweep a series on the third game right? Just want to make sure that I am getting this right...thanks Soak
                                                            yeah you got it and yeah i will be chasing some games up to a point. after a team loses one i'll double up their next game, but if they lose 2 in a row i'll chase to just win my money back. I'm feeling pretty good about how this system will pan out. As you can see by playing these 4 top teams only against the 15 crappiest teams its dodged those boston losses.
                                                            edit-Boston is one of the teams to use also
                                                            Comment
                                                            • soaked in sweat
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-13-09
                                                              • 1159

                                                              #135
                                                              oh yeah i added Tampa as a team to use too, so there are 5 teams.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • soaked in sweat
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-13-09
                                                                • 1159

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by G3ck0l0c0
                                                                I like your system Soaked. Will follow this with interest. Keep on going !
                                                                thanks, glad to hear it.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • soaked in sweat
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-13-09
                                                                  • 1159

                                                                  #137
                                                                  its still very new to me, got a bit of getting used but have all season to perfect it
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • soaked in sweat
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-13-09
                                                                    • 1159

                                                                    #138
                                                                    FYI
                                                                    the system picks of the 4 teams used in the backtest of 2009
                                                                    win percent of each team(without -300 or higher odds)
                                                                    1.BOSTON------62.2%
                                                                    2.NYYANKEES--63.1%
                                                                    3.CHI CUBS----63.5%
                                                                    4.ANAHEIM-----65.5%
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • G3ck0l0c0
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 03-28-10
                                                                      • 407

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Originally posted by soaked in sweat
                                                                      FYI the system picks of the 4 teams used in the backtest of 2009 win percent of each team(without -300 or higher odds) 1.BOSTON------62.2% 2.NYYANKEES--63.1% 3.CHI CUBS----63.5% 4.ANAHEIM-----65.5%
                                                                      And how about your current plays ?
                                                                      Will you follow them with a similar picture ?
                                                                      ie :
                                                                      1.STL---------65% (2-0-0)
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • gbp4
                                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                                        • 09-23-09
                                                                        • 29

                                                                        #140
                                                                        lookin good!!
                                                                        Comment
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