Testing out a system

[PatrickBateman]

Best of luck to you, I do agree that dog betting is the way to go in Baseball, but seems like you have a ood strategy. See how it plays out on paper for one or two years though. Since you have last years, just play this year on paper and if it wins, put lots of money down in the 2011 season.

Have you tried this sort of thing with hockey?

BOL

[soaked in sweat]

Best of luck to you, I do agree that dog betting is the way to go in Baseball, but seems like you have a ood strategy. See how it plays out on paper for one or two years though. Since you have last years, just play this year on paper and if it wins, put lots of money down in the 2011 season. Have you tried this sort of thing with hockey? BOL

thanks man, if this year's test is successful i will definately being going bigger in 2011. i'm hoping for a successful season, profits aren't expected to be much by betting small but there is little chance i will get hurt by this. Nope, never tried this on hockey. and now its too late in the season to try.....maybe next year. I guess you can say my main reason for doing this is because i'm sick of handicapping games...just to lose and then end up tilting because of it. this way i can pick 1-4 games in no time.

[PatrickBateman]

This is not a chase system right? Because chase systems + faves only picks = going broke for sure

[soaked in sweat]

This is not a chase system right? Because chase systems + faves only picks = going broke for sure

i've decided i will be using and improvised chase with the top 2 teams, and no chasing with the other 2 teams. I will probly tweak it along the way. but nothing more than -300 odds.
the test of last year's system plays showed NYY biggest system lose streak was 3, BOS had a few system losing streak of 2. while the chi cub's had one of 5 and anaheim had one of 6.
Example(NYY 3 games system lose streak last year)
NYY +101 bet 1 unit.... Lost...next play would have been
NYY -168 tw 1 unit..Lost...next play would have been
NYY +103 bet 2.68 units..Lost.. next play would have been
NYY -128 tw 5 units...win then start back at 1.

if this only happens a couple times a season it won't be too bad. i'm going to try to keep it as low risk as possible.

[soaked in sweat]

2 Monday plays

PHI -185 tw 1 unit
STL -142 tw 1 unit

[pitman]

good luck with your system SOS, looking good

[soaked in sweat]

good luck with your system SOS, looking good

thanks pitman, BOL to you as well.

[soaked in sweat]

2 Monday plays
PHI -185 tw 1 unit
STL -142 tw 1 unit

2-0 today, +2units

thread record 9-2-1, +7.94

[PatrickBateman]

Nice job today!

[soaked in sweat]

Nice job today!

[PatrickBateman]

No plays tonight?

[soaked in sweat]

No plays tonight?

nope, next ones are PHI and STL tomorrow..

[soaked in sweat]

there will only be an average of 40 plays a month with some days having none. most days will have 1 or 2.

[soaked in sweat]

Alright, I'm booking them early. Wednesday plays are:
PHI -160 tw 1 unit
STL -130 tw 1 unit.

[pitman]

good luck soaked, looks good

[soaked in sweat]

thanks pitman, i have a feeling the lines for these games are going to get worse and worse as the day moves on.

[PatrickBateman]

Sorry if you went over this, but any consideration towards not betting away teams?

[soaked in sweat]

Sorry if you went over this, but any consideration towards not betting away teams?

thanks pat, i never even thought about that, looking over the back test it looks like the away system picks went 58.2% while the home picks went 66.4%. seeing this now has changed my mind. away system picks will be 1 unit, home teams will be 2.

[pitman]

thanks pitman, i have a feeling the lines for these games are going to get worse and worse as the day moves on.

lines have been moving, good luck.
Interesting win percentages for vistor and home last year, good idea . hope it works out.

[soaked in sweat]

Alright, I'm booking them early. Wednesday plays are:
PHI -160 tw 1 unit
STL -130 tw 1 unit.

another good day going 2-0, +2 units.

thread record 11-2-1, +9.94 units.

[soaked in sweat]

putting Thursday plays in nice and early
PHI -142 tw 1 unit
STL -108 tw 1 unit

hoping they can get the sweep.

[soaked in sweat]

putting Thursday plays in nice and early
PHI -142 tw 1 unit
STL -108 tw 1 unit
hoping they can get the sweep.

crappy day today going 0-2, -2.5 units

thread record 11-4-1, +7.44

[soaked in sweat]

putting Friday plays in early
PHI -152 tw 1 unit
STL -102 tw 1 unit
BOS -147 tw 2 units

[PatrickBateman]

Hey SIS,

I think the Red Sox are on the road tonight. You said bet to win 2 units on home teams.

[soaked in sweat]

Hey SIS, I think the Red Sox are on the road tonight. You said bet to win 2 units on home teams.

hey pat, been busy with some stuff. i should of probly stuck to my word and bet to win 1 unit here but i really feel this is my best play for tonight and got a lil bit greedy.

[soaked in sweat]

putting Friday plays in early
PHI -152 tw 1 unit
STL -102 tw 1 unit
BOS -147 tw 2 units

today went 2-1, -0.94 units

thread record 13-5-1, +6.5 units

[soaked in sweat]

thinking i'll probly chase boston tomorrow.

[soaked in sweat]

Saturday plays are:
PHI -135 tw 1 unit
STL +122 bet 1 unit
BOS -117 tw 3 units

[TodaysAction]

Something to consider since you're only using a few, four?, teams is the amount of bullpen used the previous game as teams generally have two sets of relief pitchers or look into first half using listed starting pitchers to cut back some of the juice. Just trying to give you a couple of ideas to think about before the season gets to far along and then becomes "a chore" to back check. and

[soaked in sweat]

ya only 4 teams, i may add some along the way. to be honest TA, i know nothing about baseball or pitchers or anything related to the sport. i'll look into this but will probly hold off on betting the first halfs until i see/find something that will work. all my bets are system plays which are blindly bet regardless of who's pitching. thanks for the idea, i'll look in to it.

[soaked in sweat]

the juice isn't really a concern for me as long as it stays under -300.

[soaked in sweat]

Saturday plays are:
PHI -135 tw 1 unit
STL +122 bet 1 unit
BOS -117 tw 3 units

perfect day going 3-0, +5.22 units.

thread record 16-5-1, +11.77 units.

[soaked in sweat]

alright i'm changing things a bit here and will not be playing for away sweeps anymore, its just not worth it seeing that they don't happen often enough. that being said i have only one play for tomorrow.

BOS -137 tw 2 units

[pitman]

Nice day yesterday!!! 3 and ohh.
I think that no bet on the away teams when they are leading the series 2-0 is a good plan. Good luck today, liking Boston today.

[soaked in sweat]

today's boston play won 2 units.

thread record 17-5-1, +13.77 units.