Testing out a system

[soaked in sweat]

The system I will be testing is very simple and basic. The goal of this thread is keep track of the system plays and to see if its profitable or not. Just so you know I have zero experience in MLB or knowledge of the sport so please no bashing me if these picks lose. I will explain the system at a later time. My wagers will be small until I see if it works or not. for now 1 unit=$5 and all odds are from pinnacle. (tw stands for to win)

Systems plays for today are:
NYY -128 tw 1 unit
PHI -174 tw 1 unit
BOS -152 tw 1 unit
STL -134 tw 1 unit

[bigsassyster]

cash it

[danvan3000]

backing recent WS winners eh?

[bozeman]

Do you have dogs in your system, it's hard as in my opinion to win betting favs only

[Living The Dream]

Bad start 1-3 and losing like that with favs will kill ya.

I really think money can be made in spring training, but there can't be a spring training "system"

[soaked in sweat]

yeah I will only be using the top teams favorite to win this year. Chances are none of them will be dogs so there will always be juice. these teams are expected to win above 55%.
Living the dream, games were posted at 2:47am today, so no losers yet.

[soaked in sweat]

Systems plays for today are:
NYY -128 tw 1 unit
PHI -174 tw 1 unit
BOS -152 tw 1 unit
STL -134 tw 1 unit

good start. 3-1. +1.66 units.

[nobodyukno]

I dont see how people bet Spring Training. Too many variables and too hard to follow

[soaked in sweat]

Friday games are:
NYY -171 tw 1 unit
BOS -178 tw 1 unit
STL +114 bet 2 units

[EXhoosier10]

yeah I will only be using the top teams favorite to win this year. Chances are none of them will be dogs so there will always be juice. these teams are expected to win above 55%. Living the dream, games were posted at 2:47am today, so no losers yet.

Soaked, a line of -150 needs to win 60% to break even. If you're picking teams that are supposed to win 55% of the games, then you'll lose in the long run if -150 is the line every game because of that 5% difference. If the lines are somehow lower than -150, then Vegas probably sees them having a good chance of losing yet knowing they are publicly backed and still give them -odds.

I strongly recommend that you (a) papertrade for this season and (b) backtest this over as many seasons as possible. With the juice you'll be paying, if a team under-performs, you'll be in the hole big time.

Blindly betting a team for an entire season is asking for trouble. Blindly betting 4 of them a season is compounding your troubles.

[ciscothinker]

betting only favorites will loose you money be careful.

[thecomebacker]

I wont be on this system for sure, not fading it either~

[dcb11]

looks good so far

[soaked in sweat]

Soaked, a line of -150 needs to win 60% to break even. If you're picking teams that are supposed to win 55% of the games, then you'll lose in the long run if -150 is the line every game because of that 5% difference. If the lines are somehow lower than -150, then Vegas probably sees them having a good chance of losing yet knowing they are publicly backed and still give them -odds. I strongly recommend that you (a) papertrade for this season and (b) backtest this over as many seasons as possible. With the juice you'll be paying, if a team under-performs, you'll be in the hole big time. Blindly betting a team for an entire season is asking for trouble. Blindly betting 4 of them a season is compounding your troubles.

Thanks for your input EXhoosier, you have given me some motivation to backtest this and to compile some data. I relize this could be dangerous and I will try to be extra cautious. In order to back test this further I need to know the top 4 teams favorite to win outright in previous years, maybe someone with a good memory can help provide this info to me. I am not completly done with the filters yet but will hopefully be done in a weeks time. This year will be a test and if i'm successful the next year i'll bet bigger, for now $5 units is what i'll be using. I don't advise anyone to follow or fade.

[soaked in sweat]

Heres some of the win streak lose streaks i compiled on the the yankees from 2009.
# of win streaks --- # of lose streaks
1- 13 times---------1- 21 times
2- 6 times----------2- 6 times
3- 8 times----------3- 5 times
4- once------------ 4- once
5- twice ----------- 5- once
6- 3 times
7- once
8- once
9- once

[soaked in sweat]

now the vegas odds for the yankees in 2009
+100 or better-------Home-W2-L1, Away-W9-L11
-101 to -122---------Home-W4-L1, Away-W7-L1
-122 to -150---------Home-W7-L4, Away-W13-L12
-151 to -180--------Home-W13-L5, Away-W4-L2
-181 to -210--------Home-W9-L5, Away-W4-L2
-211 to -240--------Home-W7-L0, Away-W3-L0
-241 to -270--------Home-W4-L1, Away-N/A
-271 to -299--------Home-W2-L0 Away-N/A
-300 or more-------Home-W4-L4 Away-N/A

I will never be betting -300 or more odds

[Hebodk]

Betting favs will lose you money in the long run...

[rydaphotoguy]

Interesting stuff. I will be watching. BOL

[soaked in sweat]

Betting favs will lose you money in the long run...

and will dogs win you money in the long run?

[soaked in sweat]

Friday games are:
NYY -171 tw 1 unit PUSH
BOS -178 tw 1 unit
STL +114 bet 2 units

good day today going 2-0-1, +3.28 units.

thread record to date: 5-1-1, +4.94 units.

[EXhoosier10]

Betting favs will lose you money in the long run...

Betting all of anything will lose you money in the long run...........

[mlb]

very true .. keep to small units like you have and give it a go .. but you might need to do some tweaking.. good luck

[soaked in sweat]

System plays for Saturday are:
PHI -178 tw 1 unit
BOS -141 tw 1 unit
STL +113 bet 1 unit

not a great feeling on the picks for today but we'll see what happens.

[Living The Dream]

Actually betting you dogs will make you $$ if you can stay a tad under .500. I too am interested to see how you do with this. BOL

[StewiE]

will be following this for sure. good luck!

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

Looks like a good system.. I hope you give out more information now how it works.

BOL!

[whatsgood5]

Good luck with this man!

[IWinMyBets]

Good luck to ya Soaked in Sweat!

[soaked in sweat]

thanks guys. the system is very simple, basically i will only be using the top 4 teams favorite to win outright this season against the 15 teams least favorite to win outright. today for example BOS's future odd is +550 to win it all playing against WAS who is +15000 to win outright. i relize betting only favorites will lose you money in the long run but hope to change that by varying the size of bets accordingly. I'm still working on some filters from analyzing the team's 2009 records and odds but hope to be done soon.

[apwmel]

GL.

[EXhoosier10]

soaked, No matter who you bet, you are bound to lose money in the long run. Picking your spots is how you make money and varying bet sizes could be helpful too.

[Crush_your_book]

I will be following.

[soaked in sweat]

System plays for Saturday are:
PHI -178 tw 1 unit
BOS -141 tw 1 unit
STL +113 bet 1 unit
not a great feeling on the picks for today but we'll see what happens.

2-1 today, +1 unit.

thread record 7-2-1, +5.94 units.

no plays for tomorrow.

[soaked in sweat]

I just finished back-testing the system from 2009. Not sure if it would be considered accurate because the future odds i found for 2009 were posted early december '08. Anyways the results were good.
the teams used were NYY, BOS, CHI Cubs and Aneheim.
the system used match-ups against the following teams. with only a few filters.

Florida
Atlanta
Colorado Rockies
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
San Francisco Giants
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals

2009 season
system plays win-loss record was 182-112(61.9%). +47.34 units
April-------18-17, -1.23units........anaheim slacked off!!
May--------30-18, +10.29 units
June-------29-20, +10.96 units
July--------41-19, +12.84 units
August----25-21, -6.42 units
Sept-------36-16, +19.67 units
October--- 3-1, +1.46 units

worst day was........-4.5 units
best day was.........+4.2 units

[soaked in sweat]

i will be playing april extra cautiously.