Pair of 5s Sir Season Selection

[Margin Walker]

Big day for squares

Bad day for contrarians


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[Ca$hfloW]

ya went 1-3 not a good night...

what do you think about my plays tomorrow

NYY/Bos Over
Nyy +133
San Fran +122

[No coincidences]

Big day for squares

Bad day for contrarians


[/IMG]

IMHO, it's not as much about "square" plays as it is tracking pitching matchups. Early in the season, SP's tend to dominate -- especially in colder weather. Pitch counts have changed that somewhat, but it's a pretty tried and true theory IMHO. I went with a lot of better pitchers and home teams on OD -- if that makes me a "square," so be it. When it comes to baseball, that's more common sense than anything else if you ask me.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

It's Official

The first goose egg of the season presents itself early to our surprise. The Contrarian Observation Tower takes it on the chin to go 0-3 for Monday. Our despair is a sign of the real facts that our contrarian philosophy is about long term selection and sound money management.

Let recap yesterday's reults:

Astros +118 (L)
Astos +134 9L)
Nationals +1.5 +100 (L)
Brewers -124 (L)

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Contrarian Radar

The Contrarian radar locks in on the Baltimore Orioles this morning. The +165 longshot nibble line is an angle that I enjoy exploiting over a season. When a perceived solid favorite get a +160 - +175 line, it's in the trap category. Squares are willing to delve into the 160-175 with "reckless abandonement". The contrarians sit back and enjoy the view.

I believe we will even get a better number. Will report back as the day progresses.

[Netprofit]

long term it is Sir, 0-3 day is no big deal!

[SparJMU]

So do you do any technical/statistical handicapping, or are you simply picking "contrarian" spots based on the public and potential value?

[TheLock]

IMHO, it's not as much about "square" plays as it is tracking pitching matchups. Early in the season, SP's tend to dominate -- especially in colder weather. Pitch counts have changed that somewhat, but it's a pretty tried and true theory IMHO. I went with a lot of better pitchers and home teams on OD -- if that makes me a "square," so be it. When it comes to baseball, that's more common sense than anything else if you ask me.

You went with a lot of "better pitchers"? It's opening day, everyone had their #1's on the mound.

Home teams? 4 road favorites won yesterday (PHI, STL, SFO and SEA). Betting heavy road favorites is a classic square play. I know the term "square" is used a lot but I honestly think that a lot of square bettors had a great day yesterday.

Anyway, an 0-3 day is no big deal with sound money management.

It's a new day with new games and new angles.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Thank you Mr. Lock for your input. As for my statistical analysis, it will kick in as the numbers present themselves in relation to public opinion and value.

[MLBStreakbuilda]

Tailing the Bmore pick, I put 50 on it at +205.
I also like the under 8.5 at +112. But I think this number could get even better as game time draws nearer so I will wait a bit there.
Gotta believe there will be some high numbers out there for totals today, yesterday seemed like a lot of games went over even in the early innings, maybe chance for some ricochet lines skewed overly up today?

[MLBStreakbuilda]

Arizona for 100 at -138 booked.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Tailing the Bmore pick, I put 50 on it at +205.
I also like the under 8.5 at +112. But I think this number could get even better as game time draws nearer so I will wait a bit there.
Gotta believe there will be some high numbers out there for totals today, yesterday seemed like a lot of games went over even in the early innings, maybe chance for some ricochet lines skewed overly up today?

Good luck. I see you are relatively new to the thread. Patience is the key. I am also waiting on the Orioles line toward ganetime. The contrarian radar is activated.

[Rick22]

Good Luck today Sir. I know you will do fine this season.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Thanks for the confidence.

[MLBStreakbuilda]

Bos -1.5 again? +144 now, Lester at Fenway. This might be an aging, slow starting NY team, I don't trust their catcher and Burnett already got his contract.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

Orioles +195

[Regular Joe MCFC]

I've been following this thread for a few days so thought I'd sign up and say hello. Although I have my own thoughts and my own plays I share your general philosophy and hope we all have a good 'contrarian' season.

Opening day results for me were an equally disappointing 1-3 but it's a long old season and why peak too early? I like the Orioles bet and also like the Twins tonight. Best of luck.

[No coincidences]

You went with a lot of "better pitchers"? It's opening day, everyone had their #1's on the mound.

So everyone's No. 1's are on the same level? Taking Lannahan over Halladay makes sense to you?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I've been following this thread for a few days so thought I'd sign up and say hello. Although I have my own thoughts and my own plays I share your general philosophy and hope we all have a good 'contrarian' season.

Opening day results for me were an equally disappointing 1-3 but it's a long old season and why peak too early? I like the Orioles bet and also like the Twins tonight. Best of luck.

Welcome Joe to the thread. Contrarians are a rare breed. Please feel free to comment in this thread. I place no restrictions on thoughtful posts

[TheLock]

So everyone's No. 1's are on the same level? Taking Lannahan over Halladay makes sense to you?

Obviously these 2 pitchers are not on the same level.


But factor in PHI being on the road and WAS @ +1.5 and the great divide between them shrinks.


Are you suggesting that PHI ML was an obvious play?

[TheLock]

Get out the heart medication

[TheLock]

Oh that was just sick.


Tough beat Pair. You had this game clocked.

[Netprofit]

Tough luck but loss nevertheless.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

It's Official

The O's take it to the ninth for the contrarians but can not close the deal.

Orioles +195 (L)

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Good morning contrarians. Yesterday's disappointing bottom of the ninth, Orioles debacle was not a nice thing. However, this season is about the long term. This morning we turn the contrarian radar on the early games. Analysis will follow.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

The Contrarians come out firing with the fade Matt Cain play. The SF Giants after a high flying spring training and a 2-0 start are starting to command the easy money. Cain on the road is not a good thing for the Giant bandwagon types. At this time of the season, the squares believe Houston will go 0-162, giving us an ample opportunity to get good plus money at home.

Astros +145

[TheLock]

I like it

[TheLock]

I'm on HOU and I love FLA -117

[mlb]

The Contrarians come out firing with the fade Matt Cain play. The SF Giants after a high flying spring training and a 2-0 start are starting to command the easy money. Cain on the road is not a good thing for the Giant bandwagon types. At this time of the season, the squares believe Houston will go 0-162, giving us an ample opportunity to get good plus money at home. Astros +145

Love it, And public is on San Fran 59% and line has been dropping like crazy.

[gilbert91016]

St louis/cincy over

[Pair of 5s Sir]

It's Official

Astros wheels fall off and take us in the loss column.

Astros +145 (L)

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

Nationals +180
Marlins -131

[Ringo]

Nationals +180
Marlins -131

Liken these plays. Ill be riding these. GL

[TheLock]

Marlins bullpen doing there part to make this a train wreck day

They just walked Jeff Francuer. That guy is almost impossible to walk.

[pimike]

Well tomorrow you may have a good dog play.