Ck's 2024 mlb thread

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Top of the morning to all. Here's what I am making moves on in stickball today. Have to just list them-I have drop off duties for our son today and then it's off to the courthouse to domesticate some docs and then get them to the right hands throughout downtown.

We have reached the time of the season when teams that are favored over going to be overvalued. Up and down the board i found arms that I have ranked higher but are prohibitive underdogs which suits me fine. I am backing guys who can give me the 5 frames and 2/1 K/W ratio that I am after regardless of the competition. If their team should happen to win then it's icing on the cake. With Eovaldi#3 and Gallen#9 that one is shaping up to be a decent duel-I went with Eovaldi in this format purely because I have him ranked higher

Because of the sheer number of these situations I went with 1 unit apiece. I do like the Royals in this spot with Lugo ranked at #8 and Stroman ranked at #17 which is the biggest disparity. I am rolling with Bido until the wheels fall off; and the same could be said for Blalock who is under the radar only because of where he is pitching. you put him in the Bronx with a sweet offense for run support and we are talking about a sensation and not an average run of the mill arm. the tigers shouldn't instill any fear in him and i fully believe he will get his 5 frames

Rot.#923 Rox+160 ML Blalock 1 UNIT
Rot.#921 Rays+150 ML Bradley 1 UNIT
Rot.#903 Braves/Nats UNDER 8 Lopez/Gore 1 UNIT
Rot.#911 Royals+120 ML Lugo 2 UNITS
Rot.#927 Wanderers+120 ML Eovaldi 1 UNIT
Rot.#926 Jays+120 Bassitt 1 UNIT
Rot.#909 Cubs+141 Imanaga 1 UNIT
Rot.#919 Athletics+160 Bido 1 UNIT
Rot.#901 Fish+138 Oller 1 UNIT

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BTW I have Imanaga#4 and Yamamoto#20. Once he is all stretched out I will have Yamamoto on the move-as a precaution I grabbed him and stashed him for 2 starts-he should be good come playoff time. I activated Jared Jones (Buccos) and I will be activating Yu Darvish at the conclusion of the evening provided he goes 5 frames-regardless of his stats

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Also in the event that Bowden Francis is swapped in for Bassitt stay the course-keep BOTH on roster no matter what. i had Francis ranked as high as #6 so you already know what that means

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For CFB this Friday I have gone LARGE

Rot.#107 UNLV+7 10 UNITS
Rot.#107 UNLV+220 ML 2 UNITS

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I am also going to get some of the UNLV Team Total to go OVER once it is available

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Revenge is a dish best served cold as the Jayhawks beat the Rebels in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in December 49-36. Brennan Marion runs a go-go offense which a very unique offense and no one else in the country uses it. How good is this offense? They were third nationally last season behind only Michigan and Georgia in rushing touchdowns and that was with a QB that didn't run as well as the starter now in Matthew Sluka who's a dual threat QB transfer from Holy Cross where he set all types of records in the Patriot League

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Adam Oller (Fish) has shown a really good ability to throw curves for strikes and with his cross body mechanics it's a little hard to pick up his 2 seamer before it's right up on you. Shockingly I am down for this stream against the Buccos who are going with a bullpen by committee approach today featuring Carmen Mlodzinski to start things off. Mlodzinski is a 4 seamer slider guy without much bite replacing Joey Wentz who was in trouble anyway-but may see some bump time today. Oller has a use rate of 17% which suits me just fine while hunting for crumbs which may get more robust as the day goes along because everyone is on the other side

Rot.#901 Fish+138 Oller 1 UNIT

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Bido was held out for the Athletics, Get your money back

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Just leaving the sportsbook and today I made some moves on FUTURES.

The Fathers lead the majors in hard hit rate and are #1 in MLB in batting average with an impressive .265. They have a decent staff which is 13th in WHIP with 1.247 and the best strength of schedule in the National League at 10th overall and first among qualifiers in both leagues; 14th in team ERA at 3.99 and are getting well with Darvish and Tatis coming back into the fold. But you gotta have bats and they have them. Arraez baybee

The Orioles have the 8th best pitching WHIP in MLB at 1.234; 11th in team ERA with 3.93 RPG; 6th in the AL bullpen rankings at 4.08 and are 3rd in bullpen qualifiers K's; batting average they are 9th overall at .242; strength of schedule is best in the American League qualifiers at 19th.

So here's how I approached it

Orioles+325 to win American League Pennant

Fathers+750 to win National League Pennant

Fathers+1200 to Win World Series

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I wouldn't suggest utilizing Blake Snell in this format at a cost of -148. I have gone through this entire MLB season and not made a move over -140 vigorous and I won't start now. I don't trust the giants bats enough to take them on a RL. I have Ragans ranked at #8 and Luis Gil at #11 so the Royals it is. Michael King is ranked at #2 and Woo is #9 so Fathers it is, Cody Bradford is ranked #12 just ahead of Merrill Kelly at #13 in the rematch of last years World Series. Wanderers it is. Manaea is #5 and Bowden Francis is #7 so I put them together in this format in a nice neat FF UNDER. Max Fried#3 is a little too rich at -166 so I passed on the Braves. My #1 is Zack Wheeler and he's definitely out of my target price range. At this point of the season pitchers are lifted sometimes earlier than expected without warning so I may have already made my final K's move in this format. It's a little safer to do those streaming. So let's get to it

Rot.#963 Royals+124 Ragans 1 UNIT
Rot.#979 Fathers-108 King 2 UNITS
Rot.#971 Metropolitans/Jays UNDER 4.5 -125 FF Manaea/Francis 1 UNIT
Rot.#973 Wanderers+131 Bradford 1 UNIT
Rot.#951 Fish+140 ML Bermudez 1 UNIT
Rot.#977 Rays+180 ML Baz 1 UNIT

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My TOP TEN Streaming Options

Blunts Wheeler#1 Aces gonna ace
Fathers King#2 Aces gonna ace
Braves Fried#3 Aces gonna ace
Giants Snell#4 Aces gonna ace
Metropolitans Manaea#5 He's been so good lately
Astronauts Brown#6 He's also been so good
Jays Francis #7 Look back at yesterday's offerings about him
Royals Ragans#8 Why does it have to be Bombers? Aces gonna ace
Sailors Woo#9 The Fathers bats are legit-but this is in Seattle
Tigers Boyd#10 His slider and change are cooking and this time it's Pale Hose and not Dodgers

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Forgot to list two that a reader brought to my attention-The Fish and Rays are in jeopardy of being swept so here goes-and I will not take the RL-I was probably going to lose these anyway LOL

Rot.#951 Fish+140 ML Bermudez 1 UNIT
Rot.#977 Rays+180 ML Baz 1 UNIT

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While it's true that the Bill shave beaten the Fish 4 straight times-this is not the same Bills team and they aren't as good on both sides of the ball and the Dolphins have gotten better on both sides of the ball. The Fins will use the 4 consecutive losses for their motivation and find a way to blast the Bills tonight

Rot.#104 Dolphins-140 ML 3 UNITS

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My post this morning from our discord page about Kumar Rocker (Wanderers)

I’m going for it, breaking my “Don’t start in MLB debuts” rule that has destroyed me this year (Skenes, Leiter, etc.) BUT I CAN’T RESIST. It’s a great situation in Seattle, he’s on a heater, and his four-seamer + slider are truly elite. The fact that he’s on a roll in the minors makes me encouraged he’ll have the confidence to remove those jitters we see so often.

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That stated I am only streaming today so here are my TOP TEN

Tigers Skubal#1 Aces gonna ace
Astronauts Valdez#2 He's been an ace second half
Cardinals Gray#3 The K's are too much to pass up
Sailors Miller#4 It's in Seattle
Guardians Williams#5 This isn't the Dodgers-it's the rays vs a righty with an elite 4 seamer and secondaries
Bombers Cortes#6 Expect him to show out and try to get back in the rotation
Brews Montas#7 This is a GREAT matchup for him-and his velocity is back to 96/97
Rays Pepiot#8 It's a poor matchup-he relied to heavily on his fastball last time out. He's a cherry bomb to be sure
Wanderers Rocker#9 I already spoke on this one
Nats Herz#10 Question. Will the changeup be there for him? He can't just throw 4 seamers all night

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Of those the only moves that I would make would be for Skubal's K's (OVER 8.5) , Gray's K's (over 6.5)and Montas K's (over 5.5). However I am not making any official moves in this format. I am streaming only today

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My TOP TEN Streaming options for today

Twinkies Ober#1 Aces gonna ace
Blunts Nola#2 Aces gonna ace
Astronauts Kikuchi#3 This is gonna be so good
Sailors Gilbert#4 Aces gonna ace
Orioles Eflin#5 He didn't have his best last time out-but it's the Tigers
Fathers Cease#6 He's back to his volatile ways-the ceiling is too high to deny of course
Guardians Bibee#7 Cobb looks to need more time-which places Bibee in a cushy role at the park
Wanderers deGrom#8 I am breaking the laws of the injured list layover-it's the best pitch on the planet in Seattle
Giants Webb#9 He wasn't great the last time against them-his ceiling is as electric as others-the Fathers are legit
Jays Gausman#10 He FINALLY got legit splitter whiffs his last time out-I am hoping that it sticks

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Gilbert has been replaced with Hancock-but keep him on roster and blast away on a bat

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Here we go

Rot.#953 Fish+127 ML Cabrera 1 UNIT
Rot.#952 Blunts-1.5 RL+130 Nola 1 UNIT
Rot.#957 Cubs/Rox OVER 5.5 -115 FF Assad/Gomber 1 UNIT
Rot.#959 Brews/Snakes UNDER 4.5 -110 FF Peralta/Rodriguez 1 UNIT
Rot.#980 Twinkies-1.5 -102 Ober 1 UNIT
Rot.#964 Tigers+110 Brieske 1 UNIT

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Okey dokey. Brant Hurter (Tigers) was swapped out for Beau Brieske as the starting pitcher-to go along with Eflin's pedestrian numbers vs the core of the Tigers batting lineup and you have the makings of an outright upset.

Rot.#964 Tigers+110 Brieske 1 UNIT

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Let's go for an arbitrage move 2nd half just in case things fall apart

Kansas-285 ML 2nd half 3 UNITS

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Ok we are gonna walk this nice and slow today.

Follow me on @renosharpvip on Twitter to stay up on what I am doing because I may not always be able to post

Rot.#126 South Carolina+6

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Rot.#122 Miami(OH)+3

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My bad-

Rot.#122 Miami(OH)+3

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Rot.#131 UMASS+4

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3:30 Rot.#136 Florida+3
3:30 Rot.#145 Tulane+12.5 3 UNITS
3:30 Rot.#142 Pitt+2

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Liberty-20.5 LIVE BET
Florida+0.5 2nd half

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7:00 Rot.#179 South Florida-12.5
7:00 Rot.#173 Vanderbilt-9 or -9.5
7:30 Rot.#186 Baylor-17.5

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My bad Baylor-16.5

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Rot.#206 Cal-18.5

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Relax y'all, it's the NFL so I am waiting until 15 minutes before kickoff for the closing lines

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1:00 Rot.#272 Packers+2.5
1:00 Rot.#269 Bucs/Lions UNDER 51.5
1:00 Rot.#269 Bucs+7.5
1:00 Rot.#266 Panthers+5
1:00 Rot.#263 Raiders+8.5
1:00 Rot.#277 Seahawks-160 ML
1:00 Rot.#276 Vikings+4.5
1:00 Rot.#279 Jets-4

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Jags-3.5 2nd half
Giants+0.5 2nd half
Jets-1.5 2nd half

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I am not too overly in love with the 2nd half of the games today. You already know that the Chiefs will get all of the calls in their favor and will NEVER get called for offensive holding so may as well look into that one with a jaundiced eye...

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My bad Giants+0.5 2nd half not -0.5!