Ck's 2024 mlb thread

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  • atthehalf
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-31-13
    • 5045

    #1086
    Top of the morning to all. Here's what I am making moves on in stickball today. Have to just list them-I have drop off duties for our son today and then it's off to the courthouse to domesticate some docs and then get them to the right hands throughout downtown.

    We have reached the time of the season when teams that are favored over going to be overvalued. Up and down the board i found arms that I have ranked higher but are prohibitive underdogs which suits me fine. I am backing guys who can give me the 5 frames and 2/1 K/W ratio that I am after regardless of the competition. If their team should happen to win then it's icing on the cake. With Eovaldi#3 and Gallen#9 that one is shaping up to be a decent duel-I went with Eovaldi in this format purely because I have him ranked higher

    Because of the sheer number of these situations I went with 1 unit apiece. I do like the Royals in this spot with Lugo ranked at #8 and Stroman ranked at #17 which is the biggest disparity. I am rolling with Bido until the wheels fall off; and the same could be said for Blalock who is under the radar only because of where he is pitching. you put him in the Bronx with a sweet offense for run support and we are talking about a sensation and not an average run of the mill arm. the tigers shouldn't instill any fear in him and i fully believe he will get his 5 frames

    Rot.#923 Rox+160 ML Blalock 1 UNIT
    Rot.#921 Rays+150 ML Bradley 1 UNIT
    Rot.#903 Braves/Nats UNDER 8 Lopez/Gore 1 UNIT
    Rot.#911 Royals+120 ML Lugo 2 UNITS
    Rot.#927 Wanderers+120 ML Eovaldi 1 UNIT
    Rot.#926 Jays+120 Bassitt 1 UNIT
    Rot.#909 Cubs+141 Imanaga 1 UNIT
    Rot.#919 Athletics+160 Bido 1 UNIT
    Rot.#901 Fish+138 Oller 1 UNIT
    Last edited by atthehalf; 09-10-24, 07:23 PM.
    Comment
    • atthehalf
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-31-13
      • 5045

      #1087
      BTW I have Imanaga#4 and Yamamoto#20. Once he is all stretched out I will have Yamamoto on the move-as a precaution I grabbed him and stashed him for 2 starts-he should be good come playoff time. I activated Jared Jones (Buccos) and I will be activating Yu Darvish at the conclusion of the evening provided he goes 5 frames-regardless of his stats
      Comment
      • atthehalf
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 12-31-13
        • 5045

        #1088
        Also in the event that Bowden Francis is swapped in for Bassitt stay the course-keep BOTH on roster no matter what. i had Francis ranked as high as #6 so you already know what that means
        Comment
        • atthehalf
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 12-31-13
          • 5045

          #1089
          For CFB this Friday I have gone LARGE

          Rot.#107 UNLV+7 10 UNITS
          Rot.#107 UNLV+220 ML 2 UNITS

          Last edited by atthehalf; 09-10-24, 08:51 AM.
          Comment
          • atthehalf
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-31-13
            • 5045

            #1090
            I am also going to get some of the UNLV Team Total to go OVER once it is available
            Comment
            • atthehalf
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-31-13
              • 5045

              #1091
              Revenge is a dish best served cold as the Jayhawks beat the Rebels in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in December 49-36. Brennan Marion runs a go-go offense which a very unique offense and no one else in the country uses it. How good is this offense? They were third nationally last season behind only Michigan and Georgia in rushing touchdowns and that was with a QB that didn't run as well as the starter now in Matthew Sluka who's a dual threat QB transfer from Holy Cross where he set all types of records in the Patriot League
              Comment
              • atthehalf
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-31-13
                • 5045

                #1092
                Adam Oller (Fish) has shown a really good ability to throw curves for strikes and with his cross body mechanics it's a little hard to pick up his 2 seamer before it's right up on you. Shockingly I am down for this stream against the Buccos who are going with a bullpen by committee approach today featuring Carmen Mlodzinski to start things off. Mlodzinski is a 4 seamer slider guy without much bite replacing Joey Wentz who was in trouble anyway-but may see some bump time today. Oller has a use rate of 17% which suits me just fine while hunting for crumbs which may get more robust as the day goes along because everyone is on the other side

                Rot.#901 Fish+138 Oller 1 UNIT
                Comment
                • atthehalf
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-31-13
                  • 5045

                  #1093
                  Bido was held out for the Athletics, Get your money back
                  Comment
                  • atthehalf
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 12-31-13
                    • 5045

                    #1094
                    Just leaving the sportsbook and today I made some moves on FUTURES.

                    The Fathers lead the majors in hard hit rate and are #1 in MLB in batting average with an impressive .265. They have a decent staff which is 13th in WHIP with 1.247 and the best strength of schedule in the National League at 10th overall and first among qualifiers in both leagues; 14th in team ERA at 3.99 and are getting well with Darvish and Tatis coming back into the fold. But you gotta have bats and they have them. Arraez baybee

                    The Orioles have the 8th best pitching WHIP in MLB at 1.234; 11th in team ERA with 3.93 RPG; 6th in the AL bullpen rankings at 4.08 and are 3rd in bullpen qualifiers K's; batting average they are 9th overall at .242; strength of schedule is best in the American League qualifiers at 19th.

                    So here's how I approached it

                    Orioles+325 to win American League Pennant

                    Fathers+750 to win National League Pennant

                    Fathers+1200 to Win World Series

                    Comment
                    • atthehalf
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-31-13
                      • 5045

                      #1095
                      I wouldn't suggest utilizing Blake Snell in this format at a cost of -148. I have gone through this entire MLB season and not made a move over -140 vigorous and I won't start now. I don't trust the giants bats enough to take them on a RL. I have Ragans ranked at #8 and Luis Gil at #11 so the Royals it is. Michael King is ranked at #2 and Woo is #9 so Fathers it is, Cody Bradford is ranked #12 just ahead of Merrill Kelly at #13 in the rematch of last years World Series. Wanderers it is. Manaea is #5 and Bowden Francis is #7 so I put them together in this format in a nice neat FF UNDER. Max Fried#3 is a little too rich at -166 so I passed on the Braves. My #1 is Zack Wheeler and he's definitely out of my target price range. At this point of the season pitchers are lifted sometimes earlier than expected without warning so I may have already made my final K's move in this format. It's a little safer to do those streaming. So let's get to it

                      Rot.#963 Royals+124 Ragans 1 UNIT
                      Rot.#979 Fathers-108 King 2 UNITS
                      Rot.#971 Metropolitans/Jays UNDER 4.5 -125 FF Manaea/Francis 1 UNIT
                      Rot.#973 Wanderers+131 Bradford 1 UNIT

                      Rot.#951 Fish+140 ML Bermudez 1 UNIT
                      Rot.#977 Rays+180 ML Baz 1 UNIT


                      Last edited by atthehalf; 09-11-24, 10:15 AM.
                      Comment
                      • atthehalf
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-31-13
                        • 5045

                        #1096
                        My TOP TEN Streaming Options

                        Blunts Wheeler#1 Aces gonna ace
                        Fathers King#2 Aces gonna ace
                        Braves Fried#3 Aces gonna ace
                        Giants Snell#4 Aces gonna ace
                        Metropolitans Manaea#5 He's been so good lately
                        Astronauts Brown#6 He's also been so good
                        Jays Francis #7 Look back at yesterday's offerings about him
                        Royals Ragans#8 Why does it have to be Bombers? Aces gonna ace
                        Sailors Woo#9 The Fathers bats are legit-but this is in Seattle
                        Tigers Boyd#10 His slider and change are cooking and this time it's Pale Hose and not Dodgers
                        Comment
                        • atthehalf
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 12-31-13
                          • 5045

                          #1097
                          Forgot to list two that a reader brought to my attention-The Fish and Rays are in jeopardy of being swept so here goes-and I will not take the RL-I was probably going to lose these anyway LOL

                          Rot.#951 Fish+140 ML Bermudez 1 UNIT
                          Rot.#977 Rays+180 ML Baz 1 UNIT
                          Comment
                          • atthehalf
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 12-31-13
                            • 5045

                            #1098
                            While it's true that the Bill shave beaten the Fish 4 straight times-this is not the same Bills team and they aren't as good on both sides of the ball and the Dolphins have gotten better on both sides of the ball. The Fins will use the 4 consecutive losses for their motivation and find a way to blast the Bills tonight

                            Rot.#104 Dolphins-140 ML 3 UNITS

                            Comment
                            • atthehalf
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 12-31-13
                              • 5045

                              #1099
                              My post this morning from our discord page about Kumar Rocker (Wanderers)

                              I’m going for it, breaking my “Don’t start in MLB debuts” rule that has destroyed me this year (Skenes, Leiter, etc.) BUT I CAN’T RESIST. It’s a great situation in Seattle, he’s on a heater, and his four-seamer + slider are truly elite. The fact that he’s on a roll in the minors makes me encouraged he’ll have the confidence to remove those jitters we see so often.
                              Comment
                              • atthehalf
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 12-31-13
                                • 5045

                                #1100
                                That stated I am only streaming today so here are my TOP TEN

                                Tigers Skubal#1 Aces gonna ace
                                Astronauts Valdez#2 He's been an ace second half
                                Cardinals Gray#3 The K's are too much to pass up
                                Sailors Miller#4 It's in Seattle
                                Guardians Williams#5 This isn't the Dodgers-it's the rays vs a righty with an elite 4 seamer and secondaries
                                Bombers Cortes#6 Expect him to show out and try to get back in the rotation
                                Brews Montas#7 This is a GREAT matchup for him-and his velocity is back to 96/97
                                Rays Pepiot#8 It's a poor matchup-he relied to heavily on his fastball last time out. He's a cherry bomb to be sure
                                Wanderers Rocker#9 I already spoke on this one
                                Nats Herz#10 Question. Will the changeup be there for him? He can't just throw 4 seamers all night
                                Comment
                                • atthehalf
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 12-31-13
                                  • 5045

                                  #1101
                                  Of those the only moves that I would make would be for Skubal's K's (OVER 8.5) , Gray's K's (over 6.5)and Montas K's (over 5.5). However I am not making any official moves in this format. I am streaming only today
                                  Comment
                                  • atthehalf
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 12-31-13
                                    • 5045

                                    #1102
                                    My TOP TEN Streaming options for today

                                    Twinkies Ober#1 Aces gonna ace
                                    Blunts Nola#2 Aces gonna ace
                                    Astronauts Kikuchi#3 This is gonna be so good
                                    Sailors Gilbert#4 Aces gonna ace
                                    Orioles Eflin#5 He didn't have his best last time out-but it's the Tigers
                                    Fathers Cease#6 He's back to his volatile ways-the ceiling is too high to deny of course
                                    Guardians Bibee#7 Cobb looks to need more time-which places Bibee in a cushy role at the park
                                    Wanderers deGrom#8 I am breaking the laws of the injured list layover-it's the best pitch on the planet in Seattle
                                    Giants Webb#9 He wasn't great the last time against them-his ceiling is as electric as others-the Fathers are legit
                                    Jays Gausman#10 He FINALLY got legit splitter whiffs his last time out-I am hoping that it sticks
                                    Comment
                                    • atthehalf
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-31-13
                                      • 5045

                                      #1103
                                      Gilbert has been replaced with Hancock-but keep him on roster and blast away on a bat
                                      Comment
                                      • atthehalf
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 12-31-13
                                        • 5045

                                        #1104
                                        Here we go

                                        Rot.#953 Fish+127 ML Cabrera 1 UNIT
                                        Rot.#952 Blunts-1.5 RL+130 Nola 1 UNIT
                                        Rot.#957 Cubs/Rox OVER 5.5 -115 FF Assad/Gomber 1 UNIT
                                        Rot.#959 Brews/Snakes UNDER 4.5 -110 FF Peralta/Rodriguez 1 UNIT
                                        Rot.#980 Twinkies-1.5 -102 Ober 1 UNIT
                                        Rot.#964 Tigers+110 Brieske 1 UNIT
                                        Last edited by atthehalf; 09-13-24, 04:21 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • atthehalf
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 12-31-13
                                          • 5045

                                          #1105
                                          Okey dokey. Brant Hurter (Tigers) was swapped out for Beau Brieske as the starting pitcher-to go along with Eflin's pedestrian numbers vs the core of the Tigers batting lineup and you have the makings of an outright upset.

                                          Rot.#964 Tigers+110 Brieske 1 UNIT
                                          Comment
                                          • atthehalf
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 12-31-13
                                            • 5045

                                            #1106
                                            Let's go for an arbitrage move 2nd half just in case things fall apart

                                            Kansas-285 ML 2nd half 3 UNITS
                                            Comment
                                            • atthehalf
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 12-31-13
                                              • 5045

                                              #1107
                                              Ok we are gonna walk this nice and slow today.

                                              Follow me on @renosharpvip on Twitter to stay up on what I am doing because I may not always be able to post

                                              Rot.#126 South Carolina+6
                                              Comment
                                              • atthehalf
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 12-31-13
                                                • 5045

                                                #1108
                                                Rot.#122 Miami(OH)+3
                                                Comment
                                                • atthehalf
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 12-31-13
                                                  • 5045

                                                  #1109
                                                  My bad-

                                                  Rot.#122 Miami(OH)+3
                                                  Comment
                                                  • atthehalf
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-31-13
                                                    • 5045

                                                    #1110
                                                    Rot.#131 UMASS+4
                                                    Comment
                                                    • atthehalf
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-31-13
                                                      • 5045

                                                      #1111
                                                      3:30 Rot.#136 Florida+3
                                                      3:30 Rot.#145 Tulane+12.5 3 UNITS
                                                      3:30 Rot.#142 Pitt+2
                                                      Comment
                                                      • atthehalf
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 12-31-13
                                                        • 5045

                                                        #1112
                                                        Liberty-20.5 LIVE BET
                                                        Florida+0.5 2nd half
                                                        Comment
                                                        • atthehalf
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-31-13
                                                          • 5045

                                                          #1113
                                                          7:00 Rot.#179 South Florida-12.5
                                                          7:00 Rot.#173 Vanderbilt-9 or -9.5
                                                          7:30 Rot.#186 Baylor-17.5
                                                          Comment
                                                          • atthehalf
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 12-31-13
                                                            • 5045

                                                            #1114
                                                            My bad Baylor-16.5
                                                            Comment
                                                            • atthehalf
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-31-13
                                                              • 5045

                                                              #1115
                                                              Rot.#206 Cal-18.5
                                                              Comment
                                                              • atthehalf
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 12-31-13
                                                                • 5045

                                                                #1116
                                                                Relax y'all, it's the NFL so I am waiting until 15 minutes before kickoff for the closing lines
                                                                Comment
                                                                • atthehalf
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-31-13
                                                                  • 5045

                                                                  #1117
                                                                  1:00 Rot.#272 Packers+2.5
                                                                  1:00 Rot.#269 Bucs/Lions UNDER 51.5
                                                                  1:00 Rot.#269 Bucs+7.5
                                                                  1:00 Rot.#266 Panthers+5
                                                                  1:00 Rot.#263 Raiders+8.5
                                                                  1:00 Rot.#277 Seahawks-160 ML
                                                                  1:00 Rot.#276 Vikings+4.5
                                                                  1:00 Rot.#279 Jets-4


                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • atthehalf
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 12-31-13
                                                                    • 5045

                                                                    #1118
                                                                    Jags-3.5 2nd half
                                                                    Giants+0.5 2nd half
                                                                    Jets-1.5 2nd half
                                                                    Last edited by atthehalf; 09-15-24, 01:43 PM.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • atthehalf
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 12-31-13
                                                                      • 5045

                                                                      #1119
                                                                      I am not too overly in love with the 2nd half of the games today. You already know that the Chiefs will get all of the calls in their favor and will NEVER get called for offensive holding so may as well look into that one with a jaundiced eye...
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • atthehalf
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 12-31-13
                                                                        • 5045

                                                                        #1120
                                                                        My bad Giants+0.5 2nd half not -0.5!
                                                                        Comment
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