Rot.#152 Indiana-24
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Rot.#193 UNLV+3.5
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Rot.#196 South Alabama-6Comment -
Rot.#196 South Alabama-6Comment -
Rot.#182 Arizona-28.5 3 UNITS
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Boy-there is no preseason for CFB so by buying the best football numbers worked so-so in week 1. The numbers that I purchased were hitting at an insane clip last season....
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Sticking strictly to the script of the system today as there are some teams in line to be swept. Mind you that ordinarily I would NEVER make a move against Wrobleski and the Dodgers in this situation especially against Pfaadt who I have ranked as a DNS starter at #23. I took the Rl -either they are going to do it or they arent. So why pay ANY vigorous if they don't. Wrobleski will have a short leash tho given the circumstances of what's at stake in this series. Crochet only threw 4 pitches the last outing due to rain-so it's only the FF RL for the Pale Hose.
Rot.#958 Snakes-1.5 +170 RL Pfaadt 2 UNITS
Rot.#976 Pale Hose+0.5 FF RL-112 Crochet 2 UNITS
Rot.#952 Red Leggins+104 Williamson 3 UNITS
Rot.#954 Nats+104 Parker 3 UNITS
Rot.#977 Buccos+131 Keller 1 UNIT
Rot.#973 Fathers/Rays UNDER 3.5 +100 FF Cease/Pepiot 1 UNIT
Rot.#959 Braves/Blunts UNDER 4.5 FF -125 Schwellenbach/Nola
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Ok so real quick I am just gonna roll with the dogs today that have a higher rank than the favorite and of course Bido! I am gonna keep rolling with him because he is filling my pockets and I will continue to ride the wave-even if he is up against my #2 for today. I moved him up into my top ten at #10
I have Woods Richardson ranked at #13 and Littell as a DNS. Woods-Richardson isn't the best arm out there and is sometimes a little inconsistent-however it's the Rays vs a RHP. Littell doesn't do enough for me to chase him.
Jones was a little off in his return from the IL. I decided to stash him and didn't take a hit from that performance-however I am keeping the faith as his stuff is so dang good, I have Taillon as a QUESTIONABLE START today although he is a good QUALITY START candidate but his skill set a is a little too mid to move up to a top tier status. Once Jones K's info is released I am probably going to get a taste of that providing it is less than 7 K's
Rot.#909 Guardians+115 Williams 2 UNITS
Rot.#905 Buccos+132 Jones 2 UNITS
Rot.#905 Buccos (Jones) OVER K's NO LINE 1 UNIT
Rot.#921 Red Sox+112 Bello 2 UNITS
Rot.#914 Athletics+125 Bido 2 UNITS
Rot.#911 Twinkies-108 Woods-Richardson 1 UNIT
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My TOP TEN STREAMERS for today
Orioles Burnes#1 Added 5 inches of drop on his cutter last start producing 10/41 whiffs with it. And it's the Pale Hose
Sailors Gilbert#2 Aces gonna ace
Dodgers Flaherty#3 Aces gonna ace
Bombers Cole#4 This is it-do the damn thing
Fathers Musgrove#5 The breakers weren't solid last time out-I expect a strong recovery
Brews Peralta#6 As long as he isn't erratic in and outside of the zone and uses it upstairs he will be fine
Buccos Jones#7 Already spoke about this stud
Guardians Williams#8 The 4 seamer is ELITE and as long as his secondaries earn enough strikes-he's SOLID
Red Sox Bello#9 He rebounded well after cutting his hair last week and I expect him to be in full control of his 3 pitches
Athletics Bido#10 Historically he wasn't so great-but he's found IT and is performing at a high levelComment -
Crochet was lifted after 3 1/3 frames yesterday after garnering 8 K's and 0 BB. All that he did was give up a dinger to Lindor...although I love the guy and his stuff is electric I have already made my last move on him this seasonComment -
Good and surprising huge wins yesterday was Mitchell Parker (Nats) going 6 frames and giving me 8 K's and just 1BB-a clear example of how I can pick up a big win streaming when a team gets blown the heck out with traditional sides and totals moves. He had a use rate of 4% and as a result once the split of the shares came out the Commish called it genius level betting as he issued me my shares for him and also for Keller (Buccos)who went 5 1/3rd with 7 K's and no walks with a use rate of 12%. Pfaadt (Snakes)also was a good amount of ROI as well with a use rate of 33% yesterday and gave me 10 K's and 2 BB over a 5 1/3rd frames. He was crisp to say the least!Comment -
As far as CFB is concerned the AWAY+16 is hitting at a robust 69.2% so that would be the number that I am looking for to close. Anything other than that and I will pass and gladly watch rooting for the Noles to just winComment -
Whew!!! Ya’ll bad bud I know stating the obviousComment -
Kutter Crawford is in my top ten today and Peterson is NOT! So of course I blasted away on the Sox. I hate to pile on the Royals but when Bibee has the numbers and the ranking #4 over Singer's #17 the choice is obvious and just live with the results. The Royals put a thumping on the Guardians in Cleveland a few weeks back and this appears to be a big payback spot. Also I have Bassitt at #14 and Phillips at a DNS position
Rot.#973 Red Sox+122 Crawford 2 UNITS
Rot.#965 Guardians-115 Bibee 2 UNITS
Rot.#972 Jays-1.5 +170 RL Bassitt 2 UNITS
Rot.#955 Buccos-130 Skenes 2 UNITS
Rot.#955 Buccos (Skenes) OVER 6.5 K's -125 2 UNITS
Rot.#960 Giants+115 ML Harrison 2 UNITS
Rot.#964 Twinkies/Rays UNDER 7.5 -125 2 UNITS
Last edited by atthehalf; 09-03-24, 12:35 PM.Comment -
Kyle Harrison wasn't named as the starter for the Giants at the time of my post-now that he is listed I am on the Giants as he has more historically good number vs the Snakes than nelson does vs the Giants
Nelson vs Giants 61 AB; 5K 2BB; .295 AVG; 317 OBP; .492 SLG, .809 OPS
Harrison vs Snakes 27 AB; 8K ; 0BB; .185 AVG; .185 OBP; .222 SLG; .407 OPS
Rot.#960 Giants+115 ML Harrison 2 UNITSComment -
For some reason the joes are forgetting that the Rox played the braves TOUGH the last series against them and actually won the series 2-1 and the only win that the Braves got in that series was a come from behind effort after Fried and co were down 8-5.
I'm sorry y'all the juice is worth the squeeze. I think it's worth a shot tomorrow with Morton vs Blalock. if Blalock was pitching for any other team he would get a lot of press.
Anyway here are my rankings for today
Braves Sale#1 C'mon man-aces gonna ace
Buccos Skenes#2 Aces gonna ace
Sailors Castillo#3 Aces gonna ace
Cubs Steele#4 Obviously. If you've got him start him-do this
Cardinals Gray#5 I know that Matz is in-so go get a replacement bat and keep him on roster
Bombers Rodon#6 As inconsistent as you want-still gotta roll him out there tho
Guardians Bibee#7 He could be a cherry bomb against a good and desperate offense
Rays Springs#8 I'm all for it-even if his changeup may or may not be there
Snakes Nelson#9 The 4 seamer is ELITE & his secondaries work just enough to compliment it
Red Sox Crawford#10 He's been leaning on his namesake and this is a good matchup for himComment -
The matchup that I am most wanting to see tonight is David Festa (Twinkies) vs Jeff Springs (Rays); there's enough electricity between these two to keep the lights on across a disheveled battlefield. And what's even better neither opposing team is familiar with their approaches. May as well get in on the action
Rot.#964 Twinkies/Rays UNDER 7.5 -125 2 UNITSComment -
For those who are thinking of taking an UNDER for Skenes/Steele-be advised the wind is blowing OUT for Wrigley todayComment -
Also the man of a zillion grips comes back tomorrow-that's right! Yu Darvish (Fathers)! So grab him NOW and STASH him immediately then activate him after 2 starts to sneak in some frames and K/W ratios later on at a discounted price for your educated method to use him. He may get shelled a bit until he gets all stretched outComment -
Boy...the Jays bullpen got blasted last night and foiled a good move-it's collateral damage tho so no worries.. Oddly enough some of the teams in a position to be swept are decent teams which of course means that they are overvalued. I am still sticking with my principle to not pay over -140 (which is rare to begin with) and staying within my guidelines and simply taking the RL to get things done. Also I am gonna run with some of the young studs on my roster in Blalock and Bellozo and Rea. Sonny Gray is just too dang good to pass up for getting K's so in a arbitrage fashion I am on the Brews to win and Gray for K's in this format
Rot.#916 Royals-1.5 +155 RL Lugo#5 2 UNITS
Rot.#925 Red Sox-1.5 +155 RL Houck#9 2 UNITS
Rot.#906 Cubs-1.5 +110 RL Imanaga#1 3 UNITS
Rot.#919 Sailors-1.5 +120 RL Kirby #2 2 UNITS
Rot.#907 Cardinals (Gray#3) OVER 6.5 K's -105 1 UNIT
Rot.#902 Fish+122 ML Bellozo#23 2 UNITS
Rot.#903 Rox+250 ML Blalock 2 UNITS
Rot.#908 Brews+100 ML Rea#21 1 UNIT
Rot.#918 Wanderers-108 Eovaldi 2 UNITS
Last edited by atthehalf; 09-04-24, 08:35 AM.Comment -
Blalock's 4 seamer is LEGIT! With an IBV like that who wouldn't. He shut down the Bombers in the Bronx in ways that they still can't understand. He uses it 46% of the time too which I love and of of it his secondaries are a splitter 19%; slider 18%; curveball 14% and an occasional cutter for 3%. It's gonna be really interesting how the Braves try to deal with is skill set having never seen him before. One thing I do know-the moment won't be too big for him. Ok now for my top ten streamers
Cubs Imanaga#1 Aces gonna ace
Sailors Kirby#2 Are you good? I need ya
Cardinals Gray#3 He strikes out too many to ignore this
Astronauts Arrighetti#4 He's been on such a good run I would never bench him
Royals Lugo#5 He came through against the Astronauts and should do the same against the Guardians
Blunts Sanchez#6 The Jays lineup isn't scary
Snakes Gallen#7 He's in a weird place-but it's the Giants
Wanderers Eovaldi#8 He's looking sharp-I just wish it weren't the Bombers he was facing
Red Sox Houck#9 Aside from one clunker his results have been great
Jays Francis#10 I get it-he's been great-but this is the first legit offense he will be facing with the 4 seam/splitter comboComment -
Ok so looking at this I have found that one of my studs is a underdog today. I have Eovaldi ranked at #8 and I have Stroman ranked at #13. translated i should and will also get some
Rot.#918 Wanderers-108 Eovaldi 2 UNITSComment -
One that is bothering me is Albert Suarez (Orioles) who is getting 98% of the action in our group vs one of my young guns Jonathan Cannon (Pale Hose). if Cannon can find rhythm and not let up he could get the 5-6 frames. The odds of an unproductive start are very high as the Pale Hose have shown a penchant lately of pulling their young arms out early-sometimes after just 4 frames. This of course makes the likelihood of Suarez getting a clear win chance in streaming as well as in this format. The reality is that he's only faced 5 Pale Hose over 7 at bats. Dudes are only going to get back enough return to pay for a carton of milk with is use rate and should Cannon come through the Commish will be adding new brass rails to his yacht over the winter months from this one move alone.
In other things to discuss; I did get snatch up Yu Darvish as a #18 DNS and I stashed him retroactive yesterday so I can sit on him for 2-3 starts and monitor his progress. It is my hope that he is in good form when the playoffs start and I can use him as a day draft/trade for oodles of valueComment -
At the conclusion of this evening or tomorrow morning I will tidy up the record for y'all!Comment -
Cannon final line for the evening 5 2/3rds frames 4 K's and 1 BB. Fine work by one of my young guns against a legit offenseComment -
Damn that was crazy! So hardly anyone in the group had Jonathan Cannon yesterday on roster and I mean at all.
I did have him rostered as a DNS at #26 so I was privy to a share of the payout. I had no idea it would payout that much until this morning even without pushing him up to a QS. Incredible. With the Pale Hose arms it seems you only have to be right every once in a while to bring back ignorant sized loads..Comment -
So for those interested in the Ravens/Chiefs opener this evening-know this-the only number that would get me interested in this tilt is if the Chiefs fall to -2-in which case I would take the Ravens-of course that isn't going to happen because then the books would be put in the unenviable position of being vulnerable to arbitrage bettors like me. The HOME -2 is a bad number for a favorite who win outright only 20% of the time and have a average margin of victory of -12.00.
Me personally I am not making a move of any type on this game. That doesn't mean that I would steer you wrong purposefully.
Look the Chiefs are the darlings of the NFL and get the benefit of the doubt from the referee crews-they seemingly NEVER get called for blatant and obvious offensive holding and every borderline call goes their way. It just is what it is, So if you must bet this game out of boredom and anxiety I would recommend that you take the
Chiefs-150 ML and the Ravens +4.5 -154 (ARBITRAGE).
You were going to lose some money anyway so you may as well take a chance at winning both moves and sit yo ass down and drink some beers and eat some wings knowing that you can either lose a few shillings or win both movesComment -
My TOP TEN STREAMING OPTIONS
Giants Snell#1 Aces gonna ace
Twinkies Lopez#2 Aces gonna ace
Braves Lopez#3 This is too good of a win chance to pass on
Sailors Woo#4 I love Woo in this spot even away from home
Astronauts Brown#5 He's on a roll and you're not benching him-even in Cin City
Blunts Suarez#6 It's a great situation even tho he's not on the same roll as in may
Snakes Kelly#7 The results haven't been there but he was sitting 92-93 MPH his last time out
Athletics Estes#8 Same as Kelly against a poor offense
Nats Irvin#9 He's a cherry bombs sometimes without his old curveball
Fathers Perez#10 I wanted to push him higher but he hasn't had the good rhythm recentlyComment -
Here's what you want-Irvin as an underdog that is ranked higher than the favorite Falter#11. Also there are some teams in line to be swept and naturally I am going to make a move on them blindly regardless of the competition. I am going into each and every day knowing that I am going to take losses in this format so who cares? If the books will take the action then so can I.
Rot.#952 Giants-1.5 +150 Snell 2 UNITS
Rot.#965 Astronauts-1.5 +108 Brown 2 UNITS
Rot.#957 Rox+244 ML Gomber 2 UNITS
Rot.#967 Tigers+140 ML Mize 2 UNITS
Rot.#955 Nats+100 Irvin 2 UNITS
Rot.#959 Twinkies/Rays UNDER 4 FF Lopez/Bradley 1 UNIT
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Dang this is gonna be bittersweet for those who are following me. On one hand Hunter Brown delivered in a big way going 6 frames with only one walk which is a decent win for my streaming and at the same time it looks like the Astronauts are going down in flames for the RL move. i hate it when that happens...Comment -
Wonderful read-should take about 5 minutes or so-about Cesar Paz and a heartwarming tale of the most unlikely of outcomes for a group of underdog kids who took the Little League World Series Championship in 1957
Last edited by atthehalf; 09-05-24, 02:25 PM.Comment -
Shaping up to be one of those days today! Yikes!Comment -
Halfway home and some decent results so far
Kelly 7 frames 8 K's 0 BB
Lopez 6 2/3rds frames 9 K's 1 BB
Brown 6 frames 6 K's 1 BB
Snell 1 frame 2K 2BB
Woo 5 frames 6 k's 1 BB
Estes 4 frames 3 K's 0 BB
So far pretty decent for the top tens; but with Snell leaving after 1 frame the Commish is killing it yet again. Having Kelly ranked at #7 turned out to be a wonderful arbitrage move to cover that loss for me. The Giants may have won outright but didn't cover my RL.
Estes didn't have his good stuff today and I was openly and selfishly praying for him to stumble down the finish line and get one more frame in because his K/W ratio was good despite not having it today.
I didn't like Lowder's skill set coming into today and I still don't. Can't back a guy with more free passes than K's...EVER. The Astronauts had too many LOB to win in this formatComment
