Ck's 2024 mlb thread

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So for those interested in the Ravens/Chiefs opener this evening-know this-the only number that would get me interested in this tilt is if the Chiefs fall to -2-in which case I would take the Ravens-of course that isn't going to happen because then the books would be put in the unenviable position of being vulnerable to arbitrage bettors like me. The HOME -2 is a bad number for a favorite who win outright only 20% of the time and have a average margin of victory of -12.00.

Me personally I am not making a move of any type on this game. That doesn't mean that I would steer you wrong purposefully.

Look the Chiefs are the darlings of the NFL and get the benefit of the doubt from the referee crews-they seemingly NEVER get called for blatant and obvious offensive holding and every borderline call goes their way. It just is what it is, So if you must bet this game out of boredom and anxiety I would recommend that you take the

Chiefs-150 ML and the Ravens +4.5 -154 (ARBITRAGE).

You were going to lose some money anyway so you may as well take a chance at winning both moves and sit yo ass down and drink some beers and eat some wings knowing that you can either lose a few shillings or win both moves

Can't say i didn't say so... you will never get rich trying to bet against the Chiefs because the league says so

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/john-harbaugh-issues-a-challenge-to-nfl-referees-after-ravens-were-made-an-example-of-in-season-opener/ar-AA1q5GrS

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41144433/ravens-odds-officials-overturned-td-vs-chiefs

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Time and again the refs were making bad calls against the Ravens and time again it was noticeable that Mahomes had so much time to throw with incredible holding. It was incredible

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Ok top of the morning boys!

While chatting with the Commish last night over our big haul with Gomber and the Rox the conversation switched to being a book and how he makes so much money being one during the baseball season. Something that he said stuck with me-he said "for one day try being the book" loosely translated make moves on things that no one would take. This kind of reminds me of how I like to make moves in such a manner as if to try to lose.

So with that in mind here goes this

Rot.#903 Nats+103 ML Herz 2 UNITS
Rot.#908 Fish+208 ML Cabrera 2 UNITS
Rot.#911 Rays+125 Baz 2 UNITS
Rot.#901 Rox+198 Feltner 2 UNITS
Rot.#929 Guardians+135 Boyd 2 UNITS
Rot.#928 Cardinals-1.5 +185 Fedde 2 UNITS
Rot.#925 Snakes+155 Pfaadt 2 UNITS

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Now for the realities LOL

My TOP TEN streaming options

Blunts Wheeler#1 Aces gonna ace
Tigers Skubal#2 Aces gonna ace
Fathers King#3 Aces gonna ace
Braves Fried#4 He's an ace right? Just gotta get his changeup back
Royals Ragans#5 Aces gonna ace
Astronauts Valdez#6 Sure looks like an ace with his curve these days
Red Sox Pivetta #7 The Pale Hose make anyone look like an ace
Sailors Miller#8 It's away from Seattle and he isn't a finished product
Jays Gausman#9 He's not getting splitter whiffs but the Braves may help out with his 20/25% K's splits
Twinkies Matthews#10 I'm terrified because he got lit up vs Jays but Royals don't have Vinnie the Destroyer

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No CFB today. Better numbers tomorrow's slate

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https://youtube.com/shorts/LaJuP755hN0?si=h4RcQWs3SGnArYnX

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Ok now I blasted away on the NFL game for this evening. Has to be a reason why the line isn't +3. The +2 is a 73.3% number in any situation so I felt no emotions when I blasted. I will not be all over this forum making a new thread for NFL and CFB. Everything will be done right here on this thread this season or on my X (formerly Twitter) page for @renosharpvip

Rot.#453 Packers+2

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Also look to 6 point tease this game and get the Packers+8 and the Bengals-2 as a progressive 2 way 6 point teaser

Packers+8/Bengals-2 (2 WAY 6 POINT TEASER)

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Tough injury for Jordan Love and the Packers last night-no one wants to see a horrific injury like that occur to an up and coming star-hope he gets well soon!

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Ok so here is what I am going to blast away on when i get over to the Hard Rock Sportsbook in about an hour for today. No big moves until Friday the 13th with UNLV whereupon you will see me go for 10 UNITS with UNLV points and ML.

Anyway I love that HOME-28.5 number because it hit at a great clip last season and usually wins by an average of 33 or more points. But this is sports wagering so of course some of these teams will not perform up to the number-especially this early in the season

Rot.#387 Boise State+19.5 2 UNITS
Rot.#389 Texas Tech+1 1 UNIT
Rot.#391 Liberty-22 2 UNITS
Rot.#326 Louisville-28.5 2 UNITS
Rot.#332 Kentucky-9 1 UNIT
Rot.#356 Ohio+2.5 1 UNIT
Rot.#394 San Diego State+6 1 UNIT
Rot.#398 USC-28.5 2 UNITS
Rot.#308936 Colorado State-28.5

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No as far as stickball is concerned I am only going to list my TOP TEN

Blunts Nola#1 Aces gonna ace
Fathers Cease#2 Aces gonna ace
Orioles Eflin#3 It's a good matchup
Sailors Gilbert#4 Aces gonna ace
Twinkies Ober#5 Aces gonna ace despite two blowups vs the Royals- HE'S GOT THIS
Metropolitans Manaea#6 He's been a stud and this is the Red Leggins on the road. Keep him on roaster with Quintana slotted today
Braves Schwellenbach#7 He didn't get whiffs on his breaker last time out-he should get them today
Astronauts Kikuchi#8 The K's are too much to resist
Giants Webb#9 He locked back into place his last start-you're doing this
Jays Berrios#10 He's found his groove and the Braves aren't a team to avoid

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For today

Rot.#979 Guardians+130 Williams 2 UNITS
Rot.#972 Cubs+122 Assad 2 UNITS
Rot.#967 Twinkies-1.5 +122 Ober 2 UNITS

Take the Nats in Game 1 and if they lose then blast away on them in game 2 with a DOUBLE DOWN-they won't lose both of these to the Buccos

Rot.#981 Nats+100 Herz 1 UNIT

IF LOSS

Rot.#955 Nats+120 Parker 2 UNITS

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Live bet

K-State-8.5 2 units

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UNLV-24.5 1st half

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Cal+4 2nd half

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Illinois+5

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South Florida+28 LIVE BET

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Alpha Centauri's all last night! But I am up now and I will look at things after a shower a snap back beer and seasoning up my fryers and New York steaks for the grill

The sportsbook doesn't open until 10 so there's plenty of time to get down there and make my full game moves. I will be home until the end of the 2nd set of games using the app for my halves if I make any. I do plan on making a move on the late game if the number holds firm.

One thing that I know about NFL is that in week 1 it's like pitchers that try to get ahead in the count by throwing first pitch strikes and then working their magic from there. So the better teams will try to get a leg up on their competition in weeks 1 through 4. Generally your playoff teams are already in position that early to be true.

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Alright-gimme about 20 minutes. Trying to get a gauge on where the line is going in some of the moves I plan to make. i want to blast away as late as possible-like 15 minutes before start time to make sure that I get the pure number

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Let's go

Rot.#459 Vikings-110 ML
Rot.#465 Titans+4
Rot.#469 Texans-160 ML
Rot,#463 Patties+7.5
Rot.#456 Dolphins-3.5
Rot.#462 Saints-3.5

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I wasn't getting the warm and snuggly feeling for making a move on the Saints despite them having the superior defense. Derek Carr's record as a favorite is HORRID but the number is a good one converting ATS at a 71.4% clip last year with a home-3.5 winning by a margin of +12.14.

I am convinced that the Texans are the best team in the AFC and that includes the Chiefs. I also made a small futures wager


Houston Texans to win the Super Bowl at +1600

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Jags/Dolphins OVER 24.5 2nd half

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Second slate I am going for arbitrage in Raiders/Chargers and you can plainly see the rest of my moves. Gonna wait it out and see if the Lions go to -5 or if the line stays at 4.5

Rot.#478 Browns-130 ML
Rot.#473 Commanders+4 (Hurts because I have a deck full of Bucs lovers I'll be quiet as kept)
Rot.#476 Seahawks-6.5
Rot.#471 Raiders+4.5 -154 (ONE POINT BUY)
Rot.#472 Chargers-154 ML

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I am gonna go strictly with my X page @localrenosharpvip(formerly known as Twitter) as soon as the regular MLB season is over. It will be much easier that way since I am making moves inside of the Hard Rock Sportsbook y'all. A tweet takes a few seconds and a post takes much more longer and is a lot of back and forth.

I do know that I have a moral responsibility as promised to go through the entire MLB season; seeing how it would be to integrate the worlds of fantasy stickball moves with traditional sides and totals moves. it's been quite a journey to say the least!

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Let's go

Seahawks-3 2nd half

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Time to get filthy boys

Rot.#479 Rams+197 ML

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The HOME-5 doesn't even have a +POINTS. It's -3.00...

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Not looking too good for the Rams

Lions-2.5 2nd half

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For Monday Night FBALL

Rot.#481 Jets+4.5

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Lots of orders today and time spent at the 13th Judicial Circuit Court. I will roster up for MLB tomorrow

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Getting a leg up on tomorrow right now for my TO TEN streams

Twinkies Lopez#1 Aces gonna ace
Braves Lopez#2 He looked like an ace last time out
Wanderers Eovaldi#3 He's cooking. Let him cook
Cubs Imanaga#4 Aces gonna ace-even against the Dodgers
Metropolitans Peterson#5 He's been on a ROLL. You can't deny him now
Jays Francis#6 His last outing was the most convincing so far; and it's the free swingin Metropolitans
Astronauts Arrighetti#7 It was absolute chaos his last time out. his ERA took a blast as a result
Royals Lugo#8 I know it's the Bombers. It matters not. His arsenal has improved and it was already great
Snakes Gallen#9 He's going 4 seamers up breakers, curves & sliders low and away. Do this
Sailors Kirby#10 ihad this as an autoplay and I am already regretting it vs the hard hit rate of the Fathers

[sevenbar10]

Have we mailed in baseball season cause football kicked ?

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Have we mailed in baseball season cause football kicked ?

Not at all

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Ok so now the line has gone down to 49ers-3.5 which is a good number for a FAVORITE. So the way that I responded was to BUY BACK

49ers-2.5 -130 POINT BUY

this locks in money around the key numbers (3 and 4) in arbitrage fashion

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So now we have

Jets+4.5 and 49ers-2.5 looking for a MIDDLE