Betting Favorites - New Trial System

themajormt · 07-24-09, 09:17 AM

So you hit your 5 teamer?? NICE!!!

I am just happy to only end up about 2-3 units down on the day compared to 1/4 of my roll man! I got ballsy yesterday with Toronto early hoping to build some momentum for the night games but instead had to chase with CWS and everything else...

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 09:40 AM

Today's qualifying plays:

Tigers -172
Angels -147
Red Sox -161
Dodgers -148
Blue Jays -143

Okay, so this is what has qualified so far. I am not making these official yet. I dont want to doubt the system but some of these plays I am not happy with since they have stung over the last few days (Red Sox, Blue Jays, even the Angels).

linglingfool · 07-24-09, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Today's qualifying plays:

Tigers -172
Angels -147
Red Sox -161
Dodgers -148
Blue Jays -143

Okay, so this is what has qualified so far. I am not making these official yet. I doubt want to doubt the system but some of these plays I am not happy with since they have stung over the last few days (Red Sox, Blue Jays, even the Angels).

I assume you mean Game 1 for the Tigers, correct? If so, keep in mind that game starts at 12:05 EDT.

themajormt · 07-24-09, 09:45 AM

I am so gun shy on the BJ's even if Roy is pitching. Not bunting Rios over yesterday solidified to me why they will never be a remote contender.

Det at that price is tough, maybe RL and cross your fingers?
Angels: Can they keep it going?

Tough one, I also cant back Boston right now with a bumb on the mound... Today looks like a tough day.

Where did Philly and Cubs fall in your system?

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 10:01 AM

I know, it is a tough day.

I've booked DET and LAD so far. Yes I meant DET GM1. I don't like the Dodgers either since their hitting has been really incosistent lately. They are leaving a ton of LOB lately. But I'm going with Kershaw being the next best pitcher in baseball and a home field advantage. I hate going against Johnson here though. All these matchups are toughs. Even Verlander at home. DET is due for a turn-around though.

I definately hate going with Boston and the BJs though. Not sure where I stand yet on those.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 10:04 AM

Tampa just owns the Jays even with Halladay as well. I knew this would come up as a play but I don't like it!!!

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 10:06 AM

I might add Yankees -1 at -136. My gut says to bet Boston but I might stay away. They have been atrociuos of late and the numbers vs. Bergesen are terrible whereas Baltimore OWNS Penny. If you want to take the BJ's, maybe taking Tampa TT over 3 is not a bad idea.

Feeling better about LAD vs. FLA. Kershaw dominated FLA in his only outing and LAD hit Johnson very well.

themajormt · 07-24-09, 10:08 AM

Where do you get that line? None of my books offer that... I would MUCH rather take that then lay -180...

A push is a push right?

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 10:11 AM

July 24, 2009

So far:
Detroit -181
Dodgers -148

YTD: 26-8 +13.85 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 2-5 +4.45 Units

GreatDanes52 · 07-24-09, 10:12 AM

The Detroit lines over -180 does that mean it's a no play?

GreatDanes52 · 07-24-09, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

July 24, 2009

So far:
Detroit -181
Dodgers -148

YTD: 26-8 +13.85 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 2-5 +4.45 Units

theres my answer thanks

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 10:13 AM

I think some of these other lines we can wait out. Blue Jays line might actually move to a better price. I have some strategies for that game I'll post soon.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 10:52 AM

Yeah Detroit moved to -181 but when I ran the check it was about -172 so if anything that's movement in our favour. Let's hope

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 10:55 AM

Pinnacle is where I end up placing all my bets. Not available to U.S. customers though.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 10:58 AM

This is what I am playing so far:

Detroit -181
Dodgers -148
Yankees -1 -143 (if you can get it)
Rays TT over 3 -130 (0.5 unit)
Blue Jays / Rays Under 8 -135

YTD: 26-8 +13.85 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 2-5 +4.45 Units

themajormt · 07-24-09, 11:07 AM

I like the massaging of the BJ's game... Nice bets compared to taking them straight up.

thegenix · 07-24-09, 11:08 AM

How do you get Yankees -1?

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 11:09 AM

Yeah I think that's the best way to approach it. Garza owns the Jays. The only thing that would turn this thing upside down is a Jays win 7-2 or better, but that's not going to happen.

I'm looking for a 4-2, 3-2, 4-3 victory tops for whoever wins. Maybe 5-2 but that's stretching it.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 11:10 AM

thegenix, some sites like Pinnacle offer -1 lines. Not too many books do though

linglingfool · 07-24-09, 11:11 AM

Would you take Rays TT at 3.5?

thegenix · 07-24-09, 11:13 AM

Agh my book has the LAD/FLA under at 7 -110. I'd much rather take under 8 at -130.

thegenix · 07-24-09, 11:14 AM

Thanks for the info Panekkkk.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 11:15 AM

I also like the LAD/FLA under :P. Dodgers have some pretty good numbers against Johnson though and they are such a spotty team. You never know when the bats are going to wake up. With that said, I am working on an UNDERS system using data from this system. So far it's hitting at a 2:1 clip and the LAD/FLA game qualifies. But don't take that as any extra confidence. Just pointing it out!

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by linglingfool

Would you take Rays TT at 3.5?

Yeah if you take the under 8 you are still fine what that. I really can't see the blue Jays winnings this 7-2. If rays win 7-2 or better than you lose about one unit.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 11:22 AM

I also really love HAPP and the Phillies at -130. HAPP is a lefty. NUFF SAID. Look at Stl's stats vs. a lefty.

Pineiro has pitched too well for too long. Phillies get to him today.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 11:26 AM

OKAY, so there are two remaining games.

Bos
LAA

I will definitely wait out the angels. If the rest of these earlier plays hit then we'll see. The stats are heavily against Bos yet they are still favoured pretty heavily. I can't find the edge for Boston here. My guess, is that after a shitty road trip they usually come home their first game back and **** SHIT UP. Can anyone verify this????

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 11:33 AM

Well surprise surprise...

Red Sox are 8-1 after losing their last 3 on the road in their first game back at home in the last 5 years!!!

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 11:34 AM

I just wish they had a better pitcher going... Penny has terrible numbers vs. the Orioles surprisingly.

Any thoughts? I'm going to let this play marinate.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 12:04 PM

Holliday traded from the A's!!! Likely to not be in lineup tonight! More money should pile on NYY.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 12:21 PM

Hey guys, teams that got 0 hits their previous game are 1-8 their next game (Rays) over the last 5 years!!! Should we make an extra play on the Jays. 7 of those 9 games have been Under!

GreatDanes52 · 07-24-09, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Hey guys, teams that got 0 hits their previous game are 1-8 their next game (Rays) over the last 5 years!!! Should we make an extra play on the Jays. 7 of those 9 games have been Under!

already booked it early let' do it

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 12:24 PM

Damn, teams coming off a no hitter are also 6-2 in the last 5 years (CWS) and heavily on the Under. Damn. Wish I had seen that. Let's hope Verlander makes it 6-3.

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 12:25 PM

I think I'm just gonna slide with the under danes :P

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 01:08 PM

Once again, an error costs us a run in the CWS game.

themajormt · 07-24-09, 01:18 PM

No worries Panek... Verlander has a lot more arm left