Betting Favorites - New Trial System

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 11:42 AM

Yeah good call. Not so worried after looking into Weaver's numbers vs. the Twins either!

I just keep bracing for a bad day and it hasn't come yet lol

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 01:51 PM

Unfortunately 2 errors by the Jays cost them 3 runs and Jays batters are somehow making Huff look like an ace. 5 pitches to get out of the 7th is the last thing you want to do! Seriously, 5 pitches. Ah well, we were due for a loss. Rzephchysnki or however the **** you spell his name should not be -165, not now, not ever. He's a rookie who has pitched reasonably well. Jays might pull it out but it's unlikely!

themajormt · 07-23-09, 01:59 PM

Youre right about the price of BJ's but they were they right pick. I dont give a shit what anyone says, how the hell could you predict this guy would pitch like this vs a solid lineup? Noooo wayyyyyy

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:15 PM

True that! I just HATE betting on the Jays (home club). They have this amazing ability to just switch the bats off. Maybe they can get the pot stirring in the 9th!!! Regardless, it's the errors that blew this one open (3 runs scored, indirectly a result of errors). That's something the numbers can't account for. But yeah, the bats were pretty weak against Huff. I've been pretty lucky so far going 26-5

so can't complain. Still a little bitter from blowing yesterday's win on soccer bets. I got greedy lol

Su!c!de K!ngs · 07-23-09, 02:20 PM

I had a huge day adding your picks to a couple of mine hitting on a 6 team parlay and some round robin bets that ended up almost tripling my money so I put a little more on the games today and I'm hoping not to give it all back.

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:22 PM

See, this is what I hate about the Jays. Rios steals 2nd. Bottom of the ninth, 0 outs. What do they do? Instead of sacrifice him to third, Bautista lets loose swinging and flies out.

themajormt · 07-23-09, 02:23 PM

Yeah lets someone who fukking SUCKS swing away with speedy Rios on 2nd...

themajormt · 07-23-09, 02:23 PM

Great now a pop out...

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:23 PM

Hey Suicide! For your sake I hope not too! I added St. Louis late as well since the lines weren't up early this morning. One thing I'm learning from this is to literally play this system and this system alone and to not get greedy with unit sizes. When losses hit they are usually minimal but the Jays are pissing this one away.

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:24 PM

****ing seriously. WHY NOT SACRIFICE HIM OVER. It makes no sense at all.

themajormt · 07-23-09, 02:25 PM

Cito isnt a rookie coach like WTF?!?!?!

themajormt · 07-23-09, 02:26 PM

Thats a wrap... Unreal, you have a man on second no outs and you dont bunt. Thats why they are the BJ's....

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:27 PM

And that ends it. Can't win 'em all

. Two more to go though so not all in doubt. With 2 wins we might keep losses to a minimum.

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:27 PM

Honestly pretty ridiculous. And then Overbay goes down looking. Your last pitch you are gonna go down looking with a man on third?

thegenix · 07-23-09, 02:30 PM

Kerry Wood couldn't blow a save when I needed him to!

Su!c!de K!ngs · 07-23-09, 02:34 PM

yeah i think today might bring a nice size loss for me...i should just stick to this system. I also play the runline on the heaviest favorite on the day. has worked out the past 2 days when I started it so hopefully it continues.

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:40 PM

ATL looking poised to lose now!!! Hah genix, they never blow the saves that you need.

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:43 PM

And on another throwing error, Giants score on a SAC BUNT! Make that 2 games (maybe) lost due to errors. The beauty of baseball. If only I hadn't blown my winnings yesterday, I'd still be largely positive even with 3 losses today. Daaaaaaaamn!

linglingfool · 07-23-09, 02:45 PM

Picked a great day to up my baseball unit size. Yikes.

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:53 PM

I think the key is to wait for a losing day or two and up the unit size after that! After two straight sweeps we were due for a blow-out

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:54 PM

Wow, just noticed that it was another throwing error that caused 2 runs to score on Winn's single. ****ing errors.

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 02:56 PM

I'm on the Angels and St Louis late hopefully going to right this ship somewhat. If they win then really it's only 1 unit lost, or 2 if you played the parlays as well. Gonna hit WNBA heavy and hope for a turnaround ...

themajormt · 07-23-09, 03:00 PM

Thought for sure I would get a split btw Atl and Det... I went heavy on Toronto and CWS but losing ATL and DET are going to hurt a lot...

Su!c!de K!ngs · 07-23-09, 03:02 PM

i was on det too. I am also on stl, phil -1.5 and arizona

linglingfool · 07-23-09, 03:18 PM

Somewhat mitigated by the fact that Mark Buehrle just threw a perfect game.

CashMoney · 07-23-09, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

I'm on the Angels and St Louis late hopefully going to right this ship somewhat. If they win then really it's only 1 unit lost, or 2 if you played the parlays as well. Gonna hit WNBA heavy and hope for a turnaround ...

I'm with you

Have both on the ML and RL

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 03:56 PM

.

Panekkkk · 07-23-09, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

July 23, 2009

Braves -171
Blue Jays -158
Angels -146

Parlay

YTD: 26-8 +13.85 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 2-5 +4.45 Units

landon989 · 07-24-09, 12:42 AM

(First time poster)

After all my losses today I, along with most of you are loving this forced extra innings by the Angels!!

landon989 · 07-24-09, 12:50 AM

Well there we go!

nice comeback by the angels for the win!

You gotta loose some to win some!

G'Night fella's

linglingfool · 07-24-09, 12:52 AM

St. Louis and Angels make it essentially a wash on the day for me. Could be worse!

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 07:24 AM

2-2 on the night last night. St. Louis wasn't an official play but it did fit the system and did help even out the day. Still down 2 units but I hit a nice 5 team parlay so I actually finished up on the night!! It's funny when a 1-2 night feels like a disaster lol. Back at it today. I will present a money management strategy for betting this system. If anyone is following, I'd also like to hear any other management strategies (martingale system etc.) for this system as well. I'd like to start raising units on certain bets but have been hesitant so far. Trying to find filters that will help do this but I might just start making select picks and betting heavier according to my gut. Since this is hitting at 75% there's about a 3 in 4 chance of hitting a winner on any given day. Let's hope we have a nice day today!!!

themajormt · 07-24-09, 07:45 AM

I chased really really bad with the Yanks and the Angels... I went to bed around 11 with them both losing by 3 and woke up at 2 and saw both had won and couldnt go back to sleep!!

Lets turn it around today!

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 08:50 AM

Hah major nice, at least the luck turned around. I went to bed bottom of the 8th Angels finally passed out. Had a 5 team parlay and my system bet riding on it. They were down 4-3 with Guerrier and Nathan likely due up for Minny and I figured it was over. Woke up to a nice surprise!

Panekkkk · 07-24-09, 08:57 AM

Proposed Money Management Scheme for Betting Favorites System:

These are my new rules that I will be following. Again, this is a conservative system that makes money over time. Anyone is welcome to follow but keep in mind that it's by no means perfected.

Unit size: 1/30th of bankroll; if possible bet the system alone at a different betting site
Upgrade:
1. Once you have achieved 15 to 20 units upgrade your unit size to 1.5 original unit size (50 becomes 75)
2. Once you have achieved 25 to 30 units since beginning upgrade your unit size to 2.0 original unit size (75 now becomes 100)
3. Only upgrade unit size after a losing day!!!
Parlays:
Either play them consistently (every day) or not at all. To remain a little more conservative, you can play them at 0.5 unit size. If you choose to play the parlays, however, keep in mind that they do cut into your daily straight up play profits so it seems like slow going. Once they hit however it's a different story. 3-play parlays are great to keep the parlays afloat. What we are waiting for is a nice 4- or 5-play. That will be payday.