Betting Favorites - New Trial System

kyle1115 · 08-09-09, 02:34 PM

Washington is killing me right now. I was saying to myself before the game that betting against the Nats in these past few days has really killed my bankroll. But I thought that today would be different, but its not looking good right now.

Panekkkk · 08-09-09, 02:38 PM

DM, I learned my lesson and held off. I did bet the over and with Arizona somehow being unable to score a run when they have men on 2nd and 3rd with 0 outs just tells me how bad today is (or might) be ...

Can't believe the Indians scored 4 last inning. Unbelievable all around. Jays game completely screwed me.

Panekkkk · 08-09-09, 02:41 PM

And Beckham grounds into DP... Blasphemy! lol

DMB40 · 08-09-09, 02:45 PM

I don't bet as much as some of you guys maybe normal play is to win 30-50 and I lost 175 on the game thursday (FLA-Wash) and today I have $350 on it. Im making the mistake of trying to get it all back one time. I lost 45 on ari 1st 5 inn. so far. I just don't see ARI comming back right now.... Im going to be down 1100 over this 8 game winning streak for wash. THIS IS KILLING ME

Panekkkk · 08-09-09, 02:50 PM

That's terrible. I might be down a lot after today is done ... ! Honestly, start small. Stay away from teams on a streaks, especially over 4+. They just can't be trusted. Never bet waiting for a team that is "due", etc.

Panekkkk · 08-09-09, 02:52 PM

After a huge loss, just recollect yourself. Take some time off and come back slow. Don't try to win it all back in one day. Maybe play some small time 6-team parlay and hope for a lucky hit but otherwise take it easy!

Panekkkk · 08-09-09, 02:54 PM

I just can't believe Cleveland right now. When their double back-up catcher, who is hitting .100 drives in a run you know things aren't looking well. Still some time though.

DMB40 · 08-09-09, 03:01 PM

I was doing well and the stupid blackjack tourneys and now this washington winning streak has killed me

DMB40 · 08-09-09, 03:03 PM

any way god can give me a gift and let ari score 5 runs in the next 2 inns

Panekkkk · 08-09-09, 03:12 PM

Not when they ground into DP's every chance they get ...

DMB40 · 08-09-09, 03:21 PM

of course 7-2 i have the over as well 9.5!!!!!!!!

DMB40 · 08-09-09, 03:38 PM

panekkk I will be betting against washington on tuesday vs atl. I will get this money back on them

Panekkkk · 08-09-09, 03:46 PM

Wow, well today is officially Black Sunday ... That's why I don't go heavy on plays. Might take some time off to regroup.

DMB40 · 08-09-09, 03:52 PM

what % of your bankroll do you normally play?

DMB40 · 08-09-09, 03:59 PM

are you touching the yankees game tonight? Over seems like a good bet

Panekkkk · 08-09-09, 04:06 PM

about 3-5%, so I lost quite a bit today ...

After almost tripling my bankroll with a parlay miss thanks to the Dodgers last night.

Panekkkk · 08-09-09, 04:07 PM

I don't even know, not sure yet.

solobass · 08-10-09, 11:02 AM

yesterday was a challenge, but i managed a small profit. d-backs, wow what a tease they were legendary in their failure with runners on base. i made a few bad bad bad mistakes yesterday but thankfully did not get burned too bad. the west coast mindset and sunshine are getting to me too much. best of luck today everyone!

Panekkkk · 08-10-09, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

August 9, 2009

Giants -181

2 X Blue Jays Under 8.5 -123 (I really can't understand why the juice is so low on this, it seems like a gift)

Tampa -125

3 x CWS -145 (Not a system play, but I feel very strongly about this play)

STL -141

Orioles +2.5 -166 (Not a system play)

Parlay: Giants X Tampa X Stl X CWS - 1 unit to win 6.9

SU
YTD: 61-29 +20.58 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 4-13 +8.31 Units

Okay, so yesterday was a really money burner. I'm going to take some time off with this and re-analyze. If I had just played system picks (STL, TB, and SF) the losses wouldn't have been so bad. I'm scrapping the unders, I stopped playing system picks and just started playing games I liked and of course once I started posting those they didn't go so well!

HighVoltage did some great analysis and noted that the road picks are where much of the money is being lost. Moving forward, I think I'll stick to home picks and see how that goes -- unless I really feel strongly about them. Gonna stick to some re-analysis and come back when I start getting more confidence again. This system was VERY strong through June and July but August may not be the best time to bet consistently on favs. Many of the bottom-rung teams start to pick up their play when they suddenly have nothing to play for.

Back sooooooon!