Betting Favorites - New Trial System

[VegasPlayer]

Damn I had Dodgers on a huge parlay too ... Coulda been a massive night So many chances to win it and couldn't even muster a hit. I hate betting on the Dodgers they have THE MOST unpredictable offense. They just go to sleep some nights.

Yep, it was ugly. 7th inning, baes loaded, nobody out, pitch count over 120, and you can't hit a fly ball? Then they bring in Mota. Ugggghhhh!

[thegenix]

Giants look good today with Cain on the mound. Don't have too many other leans yet.

[Panekkkk]

2 x Cardinals -0.5 First Five -130 is what I played. Screw it. I just can't see them losing it but they prolly will lol

August 8, 2009

Lots of juice today so not much going. Yesterday ended in the plus as long as Winnipeg and Calgary stay under 57 to finish of my CFL teaser!!!

Dodgers -176 (I like this game for a lot of reasons, Chipper Jones is also expected to be out)
Arizona -133 First Five -0.5
Blue Jays -171 First Five PK - PUSH
KC -133 First Five -0.5
(Might also throw on the KC First Five pk)
KC Under 9 -137

SU
YTD: 61-26 +22.64 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 4-12 +9.31 Units

UNDERS
YTD: 2-2 -0.7 units

Well, this past week really hasn't been fun. Despite that, I keep adding units though on plays that I'm not making public which sucks for anyone tailing! Let's see if we can't turn this thing around.

[thegenix]

Well, this past week really hasn't been fun. Despite that, I keep adding units though on plays that I'm not making public which sucks for anyone tailing! Let's see if we can't turn this thing around.

Start posting those plays too! Haha. Need all the help we can get at this point.

[Panekkkk]

August 9, 2009

Giants -181
2 X Blue Jays Under 8.5 -123 (I really can't understand why the juice is so low on this, it seems like a gift)
Tampa -125
3 x CWS -145 (Not a system play, but I feel very strongly about this play)
STL -141
Orioles +2.5 -166

Parlay: Giants X Tampa X Stl X CWS - 1 unit to win 6.9

STL also a play (but if you remember I wanted to start excluding road teams going for the sweep ... not sure what to do here)

SU
YTD: 61-26 +22.64 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 4-12 +9.31 Units

UNDERS
YTD: 2-2 -0.7 units

So far...

+2.5 for the Orioles is only -166 ...

[Panekkkk]

Hah gen I know I feel bad!!! I'm posting everything I'll be playing today :P.

Nice lean on the Giants I shoulda taken 'em last night when they were -169! I'm just hoping their offense shows up tonight... I hate these 1-0, 2-1 Giant wins!

[Panekkkk]

Also eying seattle team total over 3.5 to hedge the tampa bet

[thegenix]

I can only get the Jays under at Under 7.5 at EV. Worth taking?

[Panekkkk]

Hey gen, Matusz is the Orioles ace and Halladay I think will finally return to some consistency with this being a home game. Halladay has been roughed up of late but this is a guy that is 19-4 with a 2.92 ERA vs. the Orioles lifetime! I'm thinking that he holds them to 2 maybe 3 runs through 8. If the Jays can get to Matusz early it might go over 7.5 (5-3 the score .e.g.)... maybe wait to see what the line does and try and get it at 8.

[DMB40]

Panekkk. Do you ever take the high fav. -1.5

[themajormt]

Yes and when he does they win by 1!!!

[Panekkkk]

DM I do sometimes, but not for this system, favourites win by 1 a lot, and there is less value in taking -1.5 when a team is at home (They receive one less inning of play when at home, i.e., no bottom of the ninth if they are leading = less home games are won by 2 or more). Since a lot of these favourites are home teams I'm not so sure the value is there to play them by two. I could go back and check but I'm not sure I have the time for that

[DMB40]

Does anyone play at betjam

[themajormt]

not for bases... Panek plays at Pinnacle (lucky SOB) and I play at 5Dimes and Bet911 for bases...

[Panekkkk]

Yeah, 5 dimes is pretty good. Don't know much about Bet Jam!

[Panekkkk]

Whaaat Christian Guzman claimed off waivers by Red Sox!!!

That might really throw of Washington chemistry! Hmmm Zona ??? Petit has been strangely dominant lately.

[landon989]

I throw it down at betjamaica.
I like their 3 pt buys on hoops.
but pinny has the best lines on the bases.

Also, thanks Panekkk, I enjoy your views on the games.

don't give up on the system picks, this august is killing cappers, (looking at covers.com cappers ranks etc...)

may the winners be ours!

Landon

[solobass]

hey hey hope things are going well panekkk and landon989 people are crying in their beers here in vegas. do not try to reinvent the wheel people but take prudent and measured action. i revisited my model for sure and made changes for the first time this year. i am running it side by side for a week and tracking.....trades and pennant races may change things that might render what was successful early thru mid season not profitable now. best of luck everyone!

[DMB40]

Who else is going to pound ari today

[solobass]

DMB40 i have been cashing nats tix like crazy, sabermetrics finally caught up with them and they are far from evening out. if you are a streak better though the d-backs might be a good play. i see more value on the marlins today -125 or rays -130. either way best of luck!

[landon989]

Who else is going to pound ari today

I Pounded them for the last 2 nights!

lol

sure i'll lay it down one more time, besides can the nationals actually make it 2 sweeps in a row!

[Panekkkk]

Hey solo thanks for the encouragement man. August always seems tough, I have a feeling that this system April through July is solid. Hoping this turn around. September should settle things down too once playoff pictures become clearer!

[solobass]

scratch what i said about the nats, martin has a 2.03 whip @ home and is the lowest rated pitcher (by my numbers) on the board today. the over 9.5 might be a good one to play as well if you want to go that way too.

[Panekkkk]

Holding off Zona ... Washington have incredible numbers against him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2009/WAS200908090.shtml

[Panekkkk]

Even with a shoddy pitcher, Washington has been getting it done with the bats. They've let their opponents score 5+ almost every game and are still winning.

[Panekkkk]

Over is probably the way to go. Guzman out is something to think about though.

[DMB40]

Wash is a triple a. Team. I don't see them winning 7 in a row. 2 str sweeps.

[Panekkkk]

Well, that Jays under seemed too good to be true ... Something is up with Halladay ... No more betting on him in any format. Since coming off his groin injury he's been average to bad actually ... Hmmm, I see it was an error that led to Baltimore grabbing another run. Figures! Let's hope Doc can completely shut 'em down now.

[Panekkkk]

Sigh ... Jays finally show up the day I bet the Under and against them. Why do I keep doing this to myself. I say no betting on Jay's games and then I go and bet them again and again.

[DMB40]

Guzman is playing today btw. And once again I'm losing betting against wash

[DMB40]

this is unreal that washington is winning 4-1 jesus. how is this happening. i am getting killed the last 10 days.

[DMB40]

of course i bet ari -1.5, ML and the over 9.5 and wash over 4.5 . and ari 1st 5 inn

[DMB40]

2nd and 3rd nobody out and they dont score. Are u f******* kidding me

[DMB40]

1st and 2nd nobody out and they dont score

[DMB40]

am i the only one losing my mind over this?