Betting Favorites - New Trial System

[Panekkkk]

July 27, 2009

Cardinals -158
Rockies -151
Reds -164
Orioles -150
Mariners -168

(More to come) Discussion? Not so big on the Reds and even the Rockies. Bailey in no way deserves being a -164 pitcher. Even though Geer has been terrible for SD I still think he's a better pitcher. Reds being at home and being the better team give them the edge but Bailey has been so bad that it raises a bit of a red flag (no pun intended). Rockies, well, they get owned on the road by the Mets losing 18 of their last 20 and the Mets are actually heating up, thanks in part to Francouer and Luis Castillo. Thoughts? Orioles, Hill is just pathetic, although bats are finally starting to pick up and Chen is brutal as well. And Mariners were basically hitless their last 3 games.

[Panekkkk]

Booked, Rockies, Reds and Cards so far... Rockies get it done today after looking at historical batting stats. They finally break the curse tonight. The pitching match-up is so uneven that it's not funny. Reds return home pissed off after last night's loss and botched call. Votto goes deep.

[themajormt]

I 100% agree with Rocks... Mets havent hit Jimenez at all...

I am definitely on board with St Louis, I dont think LAD are that good honestly...

Reds are WAY over priced but I think this is because of how bad SD is. Both pitchers have gotten rocked by the other team...

[themajormt]

I took Cincy runline... Cincy just played 2 back to back series vs 2 tough teams and SD barely beat the Nats once... I think theres more value in the RL than backing Bailey at -167...

[Panekkkk]

Carpenter has unreal numbers vs. the Dodgers. I'm almost thinking of doubling up, but with yesterday's nice win I think I'll hold off.

How you feel about Orioles and Mariners? Orioles have the advantage in the pen and slight hitting advantage. Going home I think their bats will start to bring it especially after a nice emotional win vs. the Red Sox. Mariners game is a tough one to call. Hernandez always qualifies but they got lucky last game and pulled out a 2-1 victory because of an eight-inning 2-out homer by Branyan. Otherwise they had NOTHING going. Romero is pretty damn good too and Jays bats have been pretty hot. I just don't know if Seattle bats show up, I could see them losing 2-1. Jays +1.5 might be the way to go but I'd have trouble taking that as well.

[themajormt]

My top plays are Cards and Phils... I am waiting to see what the line does with the Cards before I double up...

I am very iffy on Seattle, last night I actually was leaning Toronto. Seattle just doesnt have the offense to match up vs an AL East team in my opinion. BUT, on the other hand Toronto had a rough weekend and then having to travel to the west coast with Seattle already being at home makes me lean Seattle. Felix has great numbers vs them, I think it all comes down to his performance. If he is shaky to start then Toronto wins because Seattle wont be able to come back IMO...

I cant take the Orioles... At that price I cant pull the trigger...

[Panekkkk]

Only thing working against the Phils is that Arizona scored runs in 6 innings yesterday and are playing at home. That system is pretty tough to beat.

[Panekkkk]

That is true, I didn't factor in the travel. That will be big.

[Panekkkk]

Damn these last two are tough. Mariners are hitting .205 SLG .245 over last 3 ... Jays .265 SLG .453 against great pitching. Jays are also among tops in the league in BAA on the road!

[Panekkkk]

Booking Baltimore. Orioles have won every time Hill has pitched at home against better teams than KC with Chen.

[Panekkkk]

July 27, 2009

Final

Cardinals -158
Rockies -151
Reds -164
Orioles -150

Undecided

Mariners -168

Parlay, 1st 3 plays, 1 unit to win 3.23

[themajormt]

Ill ride with Balt with you then... Balt does have a winning record at home and they show signs of life against the Yanks and Boston, hopefully they can beat a team they SHOULD beat...

[Panekkkk]

Cubs also looking like a play ... Not sure how I feel about that. Playing well but I don't like going against Wandy.

[Panekkkk]

Cubbies are slugging .648 last three. That might be a good under 9 game... Books are raising the total because of the Cubbies slugging %. Although both teams are hitting very well ...

[themajormt]

Ramirez being back has lifted the Cubs alot... They have a lot of over achievers but Ramirez balances them out I think...

[themajormt]

Z has OWNED Houstons lineup...

[themajormt]

Panek I am adding the Cubs under:

• Under is 11-5-1 in HOU last 17 road games.
• Under is 35-16-3 in HOU last 54 Mon. games.
• HOU are 7-3 in Rodriguezs last 10 Mon. starts.

Under is 7-3 in CHC last 10 home games.

• Under is 20-6 in Zambranos last 26 starts vs. HOU.
• Under is 42-18-2 in the last 62 meetings.

[Panekkkk]

Yeah, it's just that both teams are hitting so astronomically well. Cubs haven't hit this well all season.

[Panekkkk]

Line for the under is dropping real fast! From -120 I think to -133 now for the Under 9

[themajormt]

Yeah I had to take it at 8.5, its going to drop from 9 probably soon...

[Panekkkk]

Yeah I added the Under 9 ... I hope the pitching can cool off the bats but that's a tall order with both teams batting above .280 right now...

[themajormt]

I know, but Z has owned Houston and Wandy has been pitching really well. It is ballsy, just like my CWS under last night but it will work out, I have faith!

[Panekkkk]

July 27, 2009

Final

Cardinals -158
Rockies -151
Reds -164
Orioles -150
Cubs Under 9 -133
Mariners Under 8 -152

Parlay, 1st 3 plays, 1 unit to win 3.23

YTD: 40-11 +22.84 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 3-6 +9.65 Units

[Panekkkk]

Final card is decided. GL major I'm out for a bit!

[themajormt]

Thanks Panek you too!

[Panekkkk]

Wow ... Morales gives an 0-2 grand slam to pinch hitter Fernando Tatis ... The Rockies are just cursed at the Metrodome. So much for the parlay, they had that game in their clutches for so long too. Baltimore bats somehow couldn't get to Chen either. That game also qualified for the Under system I had been talking about. I think I will start posting those "official" under plays as well as they seem to be hitting at 2-1 pace so far.

Ah well,

If the Jays game stays under then the night breaks about even! On to tomorrow

[Panekkkk]

**** ... 18 batters LOB for Colorado = the difference. This game should have been 7-3 Rockies going into the ninth.

[Panekkkk]

July 27, 2009

Final

Cardinals -158
Rockies -151
Reds -164
Orioles -150
Cubs Under 9 -133
Mariners Under 8 -152

Parlay, 1st 3 plays, 1 unit to win 3.23

YTD: 43-14 +21.32 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 3-7 +8.65 Units

Well, Colorado blew a chance at some nice units. Mariners under looks done, prolly shoulda just taken the side and laid off the Orioles. On to tomorrow!!

[themajormt]

Im pissed about the Balt game because we talked about being iffy on it but I was sold on the Rocks the whole time so oh well...

Tomorrow is another day!

[Panekkkk]

Yeah, I'm kicking myself for not taking Jays +1.5! Today will be a nice turnaround !

[themajormt]

You know what really pisses me off though is you and I talked about this a couple days ago about going with our instincts!!!

I said in my previous post yesterday "Seattle just doesnt have the offense to match up vs an AL East team in my opinion....Felix has great numbers vs them, I think it all comes down to his performance. If he is shaky to start then Toronto wins because Seattle wont be able to come back IMO..."

Why didnt we have the balls to take Toronto?!?!?! Thats the shit I am talking about just going with your feeling ya know?

[Panekkkk]

Yeah I hear ya major ... All the games we lost last night I wasn't too confident about, but that's what happens. After two days going 4-1, 5-1, you're due for a bit of a dust-up. I wish we coulda talked ourselves out of some but at least we are on track with our hesitation and can learn from it going forward. I'm just hesitant to pull one out and then lose a unit. Like Boston a few games back when they were returning home with Penny pitching. I didn't like it but there was huge trends backing it up so I bet on it and they won. Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. If Colorado had pulled it out I woulda been up 3-4 units on the night instead of down 2. Sometimes it comes down to one game!!!

So far no plays coming up today. All the plays that are a go are well over -180. I might take the Angels at -185. Villanueva and the Brewers should get it done, but his first start against a team that scored 13 runs is not my idea of a safe bet.

[Panekkkk]

I started posting this July 08th, in 20 days its up 30 units (with minimal risks put up each day). Since June 15th it's up over 70 units so I'm not worried about a hiccup now and again. I don't want to overthink things because as you can see, it's been pretty solid. Tomorrow we'll get back into the plus!

No plays today!

[themajormt]

Yeah I cant back MILW who is REELING right now... Ill post my plays and see what you think... I am working on a totals formula and it did OK yesterday...

[thegenix]

Panekkkk are you just taking the day off or did no plays make the cut?