MLB Totals 478-343 + 83 units Last Year **

CappinTerp · 07-15-17, 02:49 PM

First time in there.Best of luck.....but forget the metrics ....it's a waste of time.

doubledime · 07-15-17, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

First time in there.Best of luck.....but forget the metrics ....it's a waste of time.

Thanks CT, but I don't quite understand what you mean about "forget the metrics"

CappinTerp · 07-15-17, 04:23 PM

Referring to baseball sabermetrics....I'am I wrong?

doubledime · 07-15-17, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

Referring to baseball sabermetrics....I'am I wrong?

I use the word metric to refer to a handicapping standard to predict an outcome, not sabermetrics.

noun2.Often, metrics. a standard for measuring or evaluating something,especially one that uses figures or statistics: pretty good by any metric.

NLChad11 · 07-15-17, 07:50 PM

I haven't played anything but the reliever plays all year but since the xFIP sides have been killing it I played those 3 today and of course they go 0-3. Doh! Sorry for the jinx for anyone that plays those.

doubledime · 07-16-17, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by NLChad11

I haven't played anything but the reliever plays all year but since the xFIP sides have been killing it I played those 3 today and of course they go 0-3. Doh! Sorry for the jinx for anyone that plays those.

I am sorry to hear that you chose the plays that lost. I lost on those also. However, the other posted plays went 3-1 and even the second half plays that we are tracking went 2-0.

Remember this is a marathon, not a sprint. We will have losing days and we will have winning days. All that matters is that we are plus at the end of the season.

By the way I do not believe in jinxes.

doubledime · 07-16-17, 07:39 AM

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 95-76

Regular Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 1-10

VMI:

Yesterday: 2-0
YTD: 21-11 +12.85

xFIP first 5 innings totals:

Yesterday: 1-1
YTD: 42-33

xFIP first 5 innings sides:

Yesterday: 0-3
YTD: 27-15 +16.70

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

Yesterday: 2-0
YTD: 2-0

juveitalia · 07-16-17, 07:45 AM

Hey DD! Love all the insight on the forum, keep up all the great work. Quick question. I seem to be confused on what we are just tracking and which we are actively playing. Obviously reliever and regular plays; but first 5 sides and totals as well? I've read through previous posts but can't quite figure out what is experimental/tracking only. Thanks again for all you do!

Originally posted by doubledime

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 95-76

Regular Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 1-10

VMI:

Yesterday: 2-0
YTD: 21-11 +12.85

xFIP first 5 innings totals:

Yesterday: 1-1
YTD: 42-33

xFIP first 5 innings sides:

Yesterday: 0-3
YTD: 27-15 +16.70

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

Yesterday: 2-0
YTD: 2-0

NLChad11 · 07-16-17, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

I am sorry to hear that you chose the plays that lost. I lost on those also. However, the other posted plays went 3-1 and even the second half plays that we are tracking went 2-0.

Remember this is a marathon, not a sprint. We will have losing days and we will have winning days. All that matters is that we are plus at the end of the season.

By the way I do not believe in jinxes.

Absolutely correct DD! I was more just joking around with the the jinx thing, didn't want to sound like I was complaining about the losses. Thanks for the capping though, you're top notch on here! GL today!

doubledime · 07-16-17, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by juveitalia

Hey DD! Love all the insight on the forum, keep up all the great work. Quick question. I seem to be confused on what we are just tracking and which we are actively playing. Obviously reliever and regular plays; but first 5 sides and totals as well? I've read through previous posts but can't quite figure out what is experimental/tracking only. Thanks again for all you do!

Good question. About a month before the break I started posting the xFIP first 5 inning games to track them. Before that I saw that they showed some promise so I thought I would post them for all to see/track. By All Star break they were doing pretty good so even though I would like to see a larger sample, I decided to post them as plays. The second half plays I just start posing yesterday, are for tracking. Of course everyone will play or not play what they want, but I generally will error on the safe side. (Doesn't always workout the way I plan)

doubledime · 07-16-17, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by NLChad11

Absolutely correct DD! I was more just joking around with the the jinx thing, didn't want to sound like I was complaining about the losses. Thanks for the capping though, you're top notch on here! GL today!

Thanks NLC

doubledime · 07-16-17, 10:01 AM

Good morning,

We have a lot on our plate today. I tried to eliminate more, but could not find reasons to do so. Sometimes on days such as this it is prudent to cut down on your play size.

Even though we do not have a 3 day history of bullpen work, we have a Reliever Play:

Game # 1 NYY/Bos over 9.5 (full game) I may post a play on game #2 later

VMI:

None

xFIP first 5 inning totals:

Col/Mets over 4.5
AZ/Atl under 5
Stl/Pit under 4.5
SF/SD under 4
Tor/Det under 5.5
Min/Hou over 5.5
Seat/WS over 5 (bought the 1/2 to -130)

xFIP first 5 inning sides:

Wash
Col
AZ
Det
TX (splitting between -140 and -.5 runs)
TB (same as above)

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

Col/Mets over 3.5

Good luck

Hu$tle · 07-16-17, 11:36 AM

Im like that reliever play bol

doubledime · 07-16-17, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by Hu$tle

Im like that reliever play bol

Points Awarded:

Hu$tle gave doubledime 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

Thanks Hu$tle

doubledime · 07-17-17, 09:57 AM

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0-1
YTD: 95-77

Regular Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 1-10

VMI:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 21-11 +12.85

xFIP first 5 innings totals:

Yesterday: 3-4
YTD: 45-37

xFIP first 5 innings sides:

Yesterday: 2-4
YTD: 29-19 +19.05

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

Yesterday: 1-0
YTD: 3-0

doubledime · 07-17-17, 10:08 AM

Good morning,

No play on the early game.

Will be back up later with the Monday card.

DD

doubledime · 07-17-17, 10:21 AM

Good morning,

Upon further review the Wash/Reds game qualifies for an xFIP game.

xFip first 5 inning total:

Wash/Cinci under 5

Back later with the rest of the card.

Good luck

doubledime · 07-17-17, 10:30 AM

The Wash/Reds game I initially rated it in my own rating system as an under +. When I looked at the matchup numbers, home/away, right/left etc. I decided not to make it a play. However, there is a slight wind blowing in from right, and low humidity, both in the under favor. Finally I decided that I am going play it/post it. Sometimes "you have to dance with the girl you brought to party"....... the xFIP girl that is!

DD

thekoreanmang · 07-17-17, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by doubledime

The Wash/Reds game I initially rated it in my own rating system as an under +. When I looked at the matchup numbers, home/away, right/left etc. I decided not to make it a play. However, there is a slight wind blowing in from right, and low humidity, both in the under favor. Finally I decided that I am going play it/post it. Sometimes "you have to dance with the girl you brought to party"....... the xFIP girl that is!

DD

Haha. Tru dat!

thekoreanmang · 07-17-17, 10:39 AM

Also, Stras is only getting -137. Something fishy!

doubledime · 07-17-17, 01:35 PM

Good afternoon,

No Reliever Plays

No VMI Plays

xFIP first 5 inning totals:

TX/Balt over 6
Det/KC over 5.5
TB/Oak over 5
Clev/SF over 4

xFIP first 5 inning sides:

Mil
St. Louis
Philly
Hous -.5 runs
Clev

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

St. Louis/Mets over 3.5
Tor/Bost over 3.5
TB/Oak over 3.5
Cle/SF over 3.5

Good luck

HighVoltage · 07-17-17, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by doubledime

Good afternoon,

No Reliever Plays

No VMI Plays

xFIP first 5 inning totals:

TX/Balt over 6
Det/KC over 5.5
TB/Oak over 5
Clev/SF over 4

xFIP first 5 inning sides:

Mil
St. Louis
Philly
Hous -.5 runs
Clev

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

St. Louis/Mets over 3.5
Tor/Bost over 3.5
TB/KC over 3.5
Cle/SF over 3.5

Good luck

Is this one TB/OAK or DET/KC in the second half plays? Thanks and GL!

doubledime · 07-17-17, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by HighVoltage

Is this one TB/OAK or DET/KC in the second half plays? Thanks and GL!

TB/Oak Thanks for bringing that to my attention

doubledime · 07-18-17, 09:03 AM

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 95-77

Regular Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 1-10

VMI:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 21-11 +12.85

xFIP first 5 innings totals:

Yesterday: 2-3
YTD: 47-39

xFIP first 5 innings sides:

Yesterday: 0-3-2
YTD: 29-22 +15.90

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

Yesterday: 2-2
YTD: 5-2

doubledime · 07-18-17, 11:43 AM

Good morning,

Everyday, it seems that there are too many xFIP plays. When I try to add other factors to eliminate some plays it has not helped and yesterday it actually hurt us. I still believe in the xFIP angle so I will post them all. To be clear, I never like playing this many plays, so I suggest you use this, if you want, to add to your own handicapping.

No Reliever Plays

No VMI Plays

xFip first 5 inning totals:

Mil/Pit over 5

xFIP first 5 inning sides:

Pit -.5 runs
St L
Philly
AZ -.5 runs
SD
Tor
Hou -.5 runs
KC
Oak

Second Half Plays:

Mil/Pit over 3.5
Cubs/Atl over 3.5

Good luck

doubledime · 07-18-17, 02:45 PM

Adding one I overlooked

xFIP total

TB/Oak over 5

Good luck

doubledime · 07-19-17, 08:19 AM

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 95-77

Regular Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 1-10

VMI:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 21-11 +12.85

xFIP first 5 innings totals:

Yesterday: 0-1-1
YTD: 47-40

xFIP first 5 innings sides:

Yesterday: 5-3-1
YTD: 34-25 +17.70

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

Yesterday: 1-1
YTD: 6-3

doubledime · 07-19-17, 08:27 AM

Good morning,

Reliever Play for Wednesday:

Tor/Bost over 3.5 runs second half

No VMI

xFIP first five inning totals:

Phil/Mia over 4
SD/Col under 6.5
Sea/Hou under 4.5
Det/KC over 5.5

xFIP first five inning sides:

SD
Seat
Oak
Bost
Det
Wash

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

Cubs/Atl over3.5
St. L/Mets over 3.5
AZ/Reds over 3.5
Tor/Bost over 3.5
Det/KC over 3.5
Clev/SF over 3

Good luck

juveitalia · 07-19-17, 02:16 PM

What books are you guys using for second half overs? Can't seem to find it on bovada or 5dimes. Thanks!

thekoreanmang · 07-19-17, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by juveitalia

What books are you guys using for second half overs? Can't seem to find it on bovada or 5dimes. Thanks!

BookMaker has it.

Mike Huntertz · 07-19-17, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

BookMaker has it.

Are they the only one?

doubledime · 07-20-17, 09:30 AM

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0-1
YTD: 95-78

Regular Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 1-10

VMI:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 21-11 +12.85

xFIP first 5 innings totals:

Yesterday: 2-2
YTD: 49-42

xFIP first 5 innings sides:

Yesterday: 3-2-1
YTD: 37-27 +18.65

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

Yesterday: 3-3
YTD: 9-6

doubledime · 07-20-17, 09:34 AM

Good morning,

The Reliever Play for Thursday:

AZ/Reds over 3.5 second half

VMI Play:

SF -1.5 runs

xFIP first 5 inning totals:

St. L/Mets over 5
Atl/LAD over 4.5
Tor/Bost over 6

xFIP first 5 inning sides:

Reds
Tor
Der
NYY

Sencond Half Plays:

Mil/Pit over 3.5
SD/Sf over 3

Good luck

doubledime · 07-20-17, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Are they the only one?

I hear Heritage has them also Mike.

doubledime · 07-21-17, 09:27 AM

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 1-0
YTD: 96-78

Regular Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 1-10

VMI:

Yesterday: 0-1
YTD: 21-12 +11.85

xFIP first 5 innings totals:

Yesterday: 2-1
YTD: 51-43

xFIP first 5 innings sides:

Yesterday: 1-2-1
YTD: 38-29 +17.30

Second Half Plays: (tracking)

Yesterday: 1-1
YTD: 10-7

**** MLB Totals ** 478-343 + 83 units Last Year ****

MLB Totals 478-343 + 83 units Last Year **