**** MLB Totals ** 478-343 + 83 units Last Year ****

[doubledime]

DD, I expect copious amounts of winners for the All-Star game. First 5, winners and totals and second halves as well!

I wish. I don't even watch it.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 95-76

Regular Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 1-10

VMI:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 17-10 +8.85

xFIP first 5 innings totals:

Yesterday: 4-1
YTD: 41-29

xFIP first 5 innings sides:

Yesterday: 3-2-1
YTD: 23-11 +17.25


Note: Pit would have been a nice dog winner but Taillon got scratched the last minute so it was a no play.

[doubledime]

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[doubledime]

Good morning,

Over the next couple of days I will recap and comment on the first half and share some ideas I have about the second half.

DD

[doubledime]

Recapping the first half, we were approximately plus 35 units with everything we posted, plays and tracking. That is +35 units at 1 unit per game.

In that record there is good and there is not so good!

The not so good first:

No denying the 800 lb gorilla in the room is the 1-10 Regular Plays. Believe me, it's been like a noose around my neck all season long, but it is what it is. No excuse for it. I took all of what I know about handicapping baseball and used it to handicap those plays. It just did not work out and it cost me. However, handicapping is an ever evolving art which leads me to...........

The good:

About a month ago I discovered that using the xFIP had a potential of being a good indicator for predicting side winners and totals for the first 5 innings. A couple of weeks ago I start tracking/posting the xFIP First 5 Inning Totals and Sides and VMI Plays using no other handicapping factors, and over those couple of weeks they went 81-50 (61.8%) plus about 34 units.

Make no mistake, this is still a rather small sample size, but it does show a lot of promise. I feel that if I add just a couple of other handicapping metrics (weather, umpires, right/left match-up, ballpark, etc.) to these plays we should see even better results. Therefore, starting post All Star break, the xFIP and VMI plays will also take into consideration these other factors. My hope is that it produces less plays with a higher win percentage. Time will tell.

Finally, the Reliever Plays though winning, are not winning at the rate they did last year so I am going to make the following changes:

1. They will be plays for the second half only unless otherwise specified.
2. They will take into account other handicapping metrics if those metrics are against the way the relievers lean. In other words if we have an over Reliever Play and the wind is blowing in from center at 15 mph or if the umpire is a strong under umpire, I will not post it.

I also have some other angles that are promising, and if they continue to show a profit, I will start posting them for all.

Good luck
DD

[NLChad11]

Great work DD, look forward to your work in the 2nd half!

[doubledime]

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[doubledime]

Great work DD, look forward to your work in the 2nd half!

Thanks NLC

[juicername]

Outstanding stuff as usual DD. You've taught and given me a lot to think about when it comes to capping baseball.

Hats off

[doubledime]

Outstanding stuff as usual DD. You've taught and given me a lot to think about when it comes to capping baseball.

Hats off

Thanks juice, but you have given me a lot to look at with your avatar

[finfan88]

Keep up the good work.

[Mike Huntertz]

I like the tweaks. I use your picks and tweak them myself with both ump/wind and a few other things.
Great stuff DD

[doubledime]

I like the tweaks. I use your picks and tweak them myself with both ump/wind and a few other things.
Great stuff DD

Thanks Mike Hopefully this will help in the win %

[Laker_crazy]

DD brother, great first half, well done. All the best for the second half

[doubledime]

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[doubledime]

DD brother, great first half, well done. All the best for the second half

Thanks LC Good luck to you too!!

[thekoreanmang]

DD, great job on 1st half and the self-tweaking. It's been awesome following you since the beginning.

As you consider the changes that you want to implement, I can't help but wonder if you start to add all those extra factors if the results will start to mirror those of your Regular plays, which you explained includes a myriad of different handicapping factors.

As we've seen with your Reliver, xFIP and VMI plays, the more prudent course may be to avoid including too much. Sometimes the more you know has the opposite effect of what you intended as we've seen with the Regular plays.

What do you think?

[doubledime]

DD, great job on 1st half and the self-tweaking. It's been awesome following you since the beginning.

As you consider the changes that you want to implement, I can't help but wonder if you start to add all those extra factors if the results will start to mirror those of your Regular plays, which you explained includes a myriad of different handicapping factors.

As we've seen with your Reliver, xFIP and VMI plays, the more prudent course may be to avoid including too much. Sometimes the more you know has the opposite effect of what you intended as we've seen with the Regular plays.

What do you think?

Thanks kman. Good observation. I thought of that myself and what you say could happen. I have called it "over analyzing".

However:

The VMI plays will be posted using just the VMI since they are for the full game.

The xFIP sides and total plays will still use the xFIP as the main metric, but, only if there is strong metric against it, will I eliminate that game. That is a big difference from the Regular Plays, which looked at several different factors, and not one main factor. xFIP will still be what triggers the play. I hope I explained it clearly.

DD

[doubledime]

Good morning,

There will not be any Reliever Plays until Monday. We base these in part to the last 3 days of work so we need the weekend to have that history.

VMI for Friday: (these are always for the full game)

Mia
Sea
TB

xFIP first 5 inning totals:

Col/Mets under 4
Tor/Det over 5
Cubs/Balt under 5.5 (a couple of 6-130 out there)

xFIP first five inning sides:

Wash
Seat -.5 runs
Oak
Cubs

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

In response to Post #962 from thekoreanmang I will post the plays that would have qualified for an xFIP play, but that I eliminated due to other handicapping factors such as weather, umpires match ups etc.

In other words I first calculate all the xFIP plays and write those down. Then I look the other metrics and see what, if any, factors are against that play. If i see one or more, I eliminate that play. The following are the plays that would have been posted xFIP plays had it not been for reasons I found to stay off the game.

This way we will see if my "over analyzing" is good or not.

Philly (side)
Clev/Oak under 4

DD

[Midoohadi]

Thank you for all you do DD, i understand much more about baseball and capping it from your thread and its truly appreciated man! Best of luck on the 2nd half of the season mate

[doubledime]

Thank you for all you do DD, i understand much more about baseball and capping it from your thread and its truly appreciated man! Best of luck on the 2nd half of the season mate

Your welcome Midoo. Glad to help.

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Normally I post all the plays at once, however last night when I did a lot of my handicapping the Yankee's pitcher was not up at that time.

I had some time this afternoon to look at that game and we are adding a game.

xFIP first 5 inning side:

Boston

Good luck

[Dakota]

is the Cleveland under a play w/ the old system then? thanks.....

[doubledime]

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[doubledime]

Good morning,

Reliever Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 95-76

Regular Plays:

Yesterday: 0
YTD: 1-10

VMI:

Yesterday: 2-1
YTD: 19-11 +10.85

xFIP first 5 innings totals:

Yesterday: 0-3
YTD: 41-32

xFIP first 5 innings sides:

Yesterday: 4-1
YTD: 27-12 +20.10

[doubledime]

is the Cleveland under a play w/ the old system then? thanks.....

Yes, using no other factors other than the xFIP.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

No Reliever Plays today, though the Cubs/Balt game had the relief staffs combined pitch 188 pitches, 32 outs and used 11 relievers.

I like to look at the 3 day history and therefore no play.

VMI:

Mets
Seattle

xFIP first five innings totals:

Phil.Mil under 4.5
Cubs/Balt under 6 -130 (buying the 1/2)

xFIP first five innings sides:

Pit
AZ
NYY

Good luck

[doubledime]

Good morning,

As I mentioned in a previous post I am working on some other handicapping "angles". This particular one involves the second have totals that you can play before the game starts. Not all books have them but some do.

Today two plays qualify. I am very early into my evaluation of these but here they are for those interested:

Clev/Oak over 3.5 runs +110 for the second half
TB/LAA over 3.5 runs even for the second half

I am not playing these, but I like to share for all to see how these pan out.

DD

[doubledime]

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[thekoreanmang]

Good morning,

In response to Post #962 from thekoreanmang I will post the plays that would have qualified for an xFIP play, but that I eliminated due to other handicapping factors such as weather, umpires match ups etc.

In other words I first calculate all the xFIP plays and write those down. Then I look the other metrics and see what, if any, factors are against that play. If i see one or more, I eliminate that play. The following are the plays that would have been posted xFIP plays had it not been for reasons I found to stay off the game.

This way we will see if my "over analyzing" is good or not.

Philly (side)
Clev/Oak under 4

DD

Nice laying off of these. Your quest to become better at capping is admirable. While most, including myself, would seek a "don't fix what's not broken" approach, I do agree that there is a greater satisfaction in improving results as a byproduct of improving one's skill.

[J.M. Disciple]

xFIP first five innings sides:

Pit
AZ
NYY

Are you playing PIT and ARZ ML and NYY +.5? Favorites ML and Dogs RL?

[doubledime]

xFIP first five innings sides:

Pit
AZ
NYY

Are you playing PIT and ARZ ML and NYY +.5? Favorites ML and Dogs RL?

I like +170 dogs but you could play +.5 runs to be safe

[doubledime]

xFIP first five innings sides:

Pit
AZ
NYY

Are you playing PIT and ARZ ML and NYY +.5? Favorites ML and Dogs RL?

Also these are always going to be money lines unless otherwise noted

[doubledime]

Nice laying off of these. Your quest to become better at capping is admirable. While most, including myself, would seek a "don't fix what's not broken" approach, I do agree that there is a greater satisfaction in improving results as a byproduct of improving one's skill.