Billdo's Just 4 Fun Picks

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/29/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+131 ORIOLES(Tillman) over Royals(Greinke), Day 3 (17-12 L4, +2.87 units YTD)
+185 Nationals(Mock) over BREWERS(Parra), Day 3 (14-14 W1, +0.38 units YTD)
-136 TWINS(Liriano) over White Sox(Contreras), Day 3 (17-12 L4, +2.87 units YTD)
-112 CARDINALS(Pineiro) over Dodgers(Kershaw), Day 3 (17-12 L4, +2.87 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-178 ANGELS(Lackey) over Indians(Laffey), Day 3 (31-23 W4, +4.99 units YTD)
-105 Yankees(Chamberlain) over DEVIL RAYS(Garza), Day 3 (17-11 W1, +14.03 units YTD)
-150 MARLINS(Johnson) over Braves(Kawakami), Day 2 (23-12 W1, +10.09 units YTD)
-152 REDS(Harang) over Padres(Latos), Day 3 (31-23 W4, +4.99 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 4 Units Each:

-195 CUBS(Wells) over Astros(Hampton), Day 3 (19-5 W3, +26.91 units YTD)
-161 GIANTS(Cain) over Pirates(Duke), Day 3 (19-5 W3, +26.91 units YTD)
-138 METS(Santana) over Rockies(Hammel), Day 3 (19-5 W3, +26.91 units YTD)
-102 RANGERS(Feldman) over Tigers(Verlander), Day 3 (19-5 W3, +26.91 units YTD)
-160 Phillies(Happ) over DIAMONDBACKS(Petit), Day 3 (9-3 W4, +21.12 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 8-4 overall for +0.84 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 131-100, +14.66 units, +6.35% ROI, 1.002 z-score, p-value of 15.8%
2-unit plays: 144-123, -0.78 units, -0.15% ROI, -0.025 z-score, p-value of 51.0%
3-unit plays: 78-62, +3.65 units, +0.87% ROI, +0.113 z-score, p-value of 45.5%
4-unit plays: 67-38, +34.54 units, +8.22% ROI, 0.981 z-score, p-value of 16.3%

Overall: 420-323, +52.06 units, +3.24% ROI, 0.887 z-score, p-value of 18.7%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/30/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-169 ORIOLES(Bergesen) over Royals(Hochevar), Day 4 (2-1 W2, +0.19 units YTD)
+260 Nationals(Martin) over BREWERS(Gallardo), Day 4 (1-2 L2, -0.83 units YTD)
-110 Phillies(Lopez) over GIANTS(Sanchez), Day 1 (17-21 L1, -3.58 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+142 Padres(Stauffer) over REDS(Cueto), Day 4 (3-4 W1, -2.84 units YTD)
-410 RED SOX(Lester) over Athletics(Gonzalez), Day 4 (5-5 L2, -2.54 units YTD)
+140 MARLINS(VandenHurk) over Braves(Vazquez), Day 3 (32-24 L1, +4.12 units YTD)
-121 Yankees(Pettitte) over WHITE SOX(Floyd), Day 1 (15-23 L1, -15.96 units YTD)
-105 CARDINALS(Lohse) over Dodgers(Kuroda), Day 4 (5-5 L2, -2.54 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-190 CUBS(Hart) over Astros(Ortiz), Day 4 (4-5 L1, -7.33 units YTD)
-166 RANGERS(Holland) over Mariners(Olson), Day 1 (12-13 W1, -13.28 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

No plays today

GL, everybody!

[FreeFall]

whats the system? to chase every team assuming that one team will win a game in a series?

[billdo75]

Picks went 5-5 overall for -0.69 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 132-102, +13.25 units, +5.66% ROI, 0.898 z-score, p-value of 18.5%
2-unit plays: 146-126, -3.45 units, -0.63% ROI, -0.111 z-score, p-value of 54.4%
3-unit plays: 80-62, +7.03 units, +1.65% ROI, +0.217 z-score, p-value of 41.4%
4-unit plays: 67-38, +34.54 units, +8.22% ROI, 0.981 z-score, p-value of 16.3%

Overall: 425-328, +51.37 units, +3.16% ROI, 0.871 z-score, p-value of 19.2%

[billdo75]

Picks went 8-6 overall for +1.38 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 135-105, +13.13 units, +5.47% ROI, 0.879 z-score, p-value of 19.0%
2-unit plays: 149-128, -2.02 units, -0.36% ROI, -0.064 z-score, p-value of 52.6%
3-unit plays: 82-63, +7.10 units, +1.63% ROI, +0.217 z-score, p-value of 41.4%
4-unit plays: 67-38, +34.54 units, +8.22% ROI, 0.981 z-score, p-value of 16.3%

Overall: 433-334, +52.75 units, +3.20% ROI, 0.889 z-score, p-value of 18.7%

[AceofSP2107]

billdo im new to the site and was following you ,, you post Great plays but i was just wonder we were your plays for 7-31-2009 .. and keep up the good work

[billdo75]

billdo im new to the site and was following you ,, you post Great plays but i was just wonder we were your plays for 7-31-2009 .. and keep up the good work

I didn't realize I hadn't posted yesterday's plays until after I had posted the results. The plays were...

Risk 1 Unit Each:
Red Sox (-118) won 6-5
INDIANS (+139) won 6-5
Cubs (-130) lost 2-5
Rockies (-157) won 5-3
BRAVES (-185) lost 0-5
Yankees (-115) lost 5-10

Risk 2 Units Each:
Nationals (-117) lost 4-5
Angels (+140) won 11-5
CARDINALS (-188) won 4-3
ATHLETICS (-127) won 8-5
GIANTS (+157) lost 1-5

Risk 3 Units Each:
METS (-102) lost 2-3
DEVIL RAYS (-240) won 8-2
RANGERS (-165) won 5-4

There were no 4 unit plays.

[AceofSP2107]

Thank You ... are there any plays for tonite

[billdo75]

Nope. I spent the first half of the day away from any computers, so I didn't have a chance to score the matchups. I'll resume tomorrow, but I'm hoping to get a new month-end update up tonight at some time.

[billdo75]

Picks for 8/2/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+109 INDIANS(Pavano) over Tigers(Galarraga), Day 3 (20-12 W3, +5.81 units YTD)
-114 METS(Pelfrey) over Diamondbacks(Garland), Day 3 (20-12 W3, +5.81 units YTD)
+100 ATHLETICS(Mazzaro) over Blue Jays(Romero), Day 3 (20-12 W3, +5.81 units YTD)
+115 Cubs(Dempster) over MARLINS(Nolasco), Day 3 (14-15 L1, -0.62 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-132 PIRATES(Maholm) over Nationals(Balester), Day 3 (32-25 L2, +2.12 units YTD)
-310 DEVIL RAYS(Shields) over Royals(Bannister), Day 3 (32-25 L2, +2.12 units YTD)
+132 WHITE SOX(Buehrle) over Yankees(Sabathia), Day 4 (6-6 L1, -4.06 units YTD)
+152 GIANTS(Zito) over Phillies(Hamels), Day 4 (6-6 L1, -4.06 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-139 Rockies(Marquis) over REDS(Arroyo), Day 3 (5-4 L3, +5.62 units YTD)
-114 Angels(Weaver) over TWINS(Perkins), Day 3 (5-4 L3, +5.62 units YTD)
-300 CARDINALS(Wainwright) over Astros(Norris), Day 3 (15-14 W3, -8.51 units YTD)
-119 PADRES(Correia) over Brewers(Villanueva), Day 3 (15-14 W3, -8.51 units YTD)
-169 RANGERS(Feldman) over Mariners(Snell), Day 4 (5-5 W1, -5.75 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

No plays today

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 5-8 overall for -4.30 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 136-108, +11.22 units, +4.60% ROI, 0.744 z-score, p-value of 22.8%
2-unit plays: 150-131, -4.98 units, -0.89% ROI, -0.157 z-score, p-value of 56.2%
3-unit plays: 85-65, +7.67 units, +1.70% ROI, +0.231 z-score, p-value of 40.9%
4-unit plays: 67-38, +34.54 units, +8.22% ROI, 0.981 z-score, p-value of 16.3%

Overall: 438-342, +48.45 units, +2.89% ROI, 0.811 z-score, p-value of 20.9%

[billdo75]

Some more season-to-date data through the end of July...

Day 1 plays: 133-122, -33.32 units, -6.42% ROI, -1.009 z-score, p-value of 84.3%
Day 2 plays: 141-99, +29.74 units, +5.80% ROI, +0.894 z-score, p-value of 18.6%
Day 3 plays: 134-91, +64.91 units, +12.80% ROI, +1.958 z-score, p-value of 2.5%
Day 4 plays: 25-22, -8.57 units, -7.79% ROI, -0.572 z-score, p-value of 71.7%

+25.41 units - Tampa Bay (26-10 ON, 10-7 AGAINST)
+22.83 units - Washington (3-5 ON, 35-14 AGAINST)
+19.99 units - Kansas City (4-8 ON, 28-12 AGAINST)
+19.82 units - LA Angels (24-11 ON, 6-7 AGAINST)
+18.38 units - Philadelphia (23-11 ON, 10-9 AGAINST)
+16.73 units - Toronto (14-11 ON, 22-6 AGAINST)
+16.20 units - Baltimore (18-9 ON, 19-9 AGAINST)
+13.70 units - Cleveland (6-4 ON, 27-18 AGAINST)
+12.39 units - Oakland (6-6 ON, 26-17 AGAINST)
+8.45 units - San Diego (7-6 ON, 24-14 AGAINST)
+8.31 units - NY Mets (8-6 ON, 19-10 AGAINST)
+7.07 units - Texas (18-11 ON, 11-8 AGAINST)
+6.31 units - Colorado (22-13 ON, 5-9 AGAINST)
+3.69 units - Milwaukee (10-13 ON, 15-11 AGAINST)
+2.80 units - San Francisco (17-13 ON, 10-12 AGAINST)
+2.26 units - NY Yankees (30-13 ON, 4-5 AGAINST)
+1.69 units - Pittsburgh (12-11 ON, 18-11 AGAINST)
+1.50 units - Chicago Cubs (12-10 ON, 15-14 AGAINST)
-0.23 units - Florida (13-8 ON, 15-18 AGAINST)
-1.89 units - Seattle (17-16 ON, 10-8 AGAINST)
-4.24 units - Houston (15-12 ON, 15-15 AGAINST)
-4.34 units - St Louis (14-13 ON, 7-10 AGAINST)
-4.66 units - Chicago White Sox (16-16 ON, 8-13 AGAINST)
-4.83 units - Arizona (8-7 ON, 19-14 AGAINST)
-6.19 units - Detroit (13-12 ON, 11-11 AGAINST)
-7.35 units - LA Dodgers (20-18 ON, 2-10 AGAINST)
-8.37 units - Boston (23-15 ON, 4-6 AGAINST)
-17.28 units - Minnesota (11-14 ON, 11-14 AGAINST)
-18.49 units - Atlanta (13-16 ON, 11-10 AGAINST)
-24.16 units - Cincinnati (10-16 ON, 16-12 AGAINST)

[billdo75]

Picks for 8/3/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-260 TIGERS(Verlander) over Orioles(Tillman), Day 1 (30-20 L1, +2.38 units YTD)
+111 Rangers(Nippert) over ATHLETICS(Anderson), Day 1 (19-23 W1, -4.10 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-143 PIRATES(Morton) over Nationals(Mock), Day 4 (7-7 W1, -3.02 units YTD)
-133 Cubs(Wells) over REDS(Harang), Day 1 (16-25 W1, -17.16 units YTD)
-135 Giants(Cain) over ASTROS(Hampton), Day 1 (16-25 W1, -17.16 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-230 DODGERS(Kershaw) over Brewers(Parra), Day 1 (14-14 W1, -13.22 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-140 DEVIL RAYS(Kazmir) over Royals(Greinke), Day 4 (3-1 L1, +1.62 units YTD)
+100 PADRES(Latos) over Braves(Kawakami), Day 1 (11-7 W2, -4.46 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 4-4 overall for +0.75 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 137-109, +10.60 units, +4.31% ROI, 0.701 z-score, p-value of 24.2%
2-unit plays: 151-133, -7.47 units, -1.32% ROI, -0.235 z-score, p-value of 59.3%
3-unit plays: 85-66, +4.67 units, +1.03% ROI, +0.140 z-score, p-value of 44.4%
4-unit plays: 69-38, +41.39 units, +9.67% ROI, 1.162 z-score, p-value of 12.3%

Overall: 442-346, +49.19 units, +2.90% ROI, 0.818 z-score, p-value of 20.7%

[billdo75]

Picks for 8/4/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-225 TIGERS(Washburn) over Orioles(Matusz), Day 2 (32-18 W4, +7.14 units YTD)
-190 Marlins(Johnson) over NATIONALS(Martin), Day 1 (19-24 L1, -5.10 units YTD)
-106 METS(Santana) over Cardinals(Pineiro), Day 1 (31-20 W1, +2.76 units YTD)
-103 Giants(Sanchez) over ASTROS(Paulino), Day 2 (16-13 L1, +3.57 units YTD)
-106 Mariners(Rowland-Smith) over ROYALS(Hochevar), Day 1 (19-24 L1, -5.10 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+141 INDIANS(Huff) over Twins(Baker), Day 1 (30-23 W2, -4.00 units YTD)
-150 PIRATES(Duke) over Diamondbacks(Petit), Day 1 (30-23 W2, -4.00 units YTD)
+135 Rockies(Hammel) over PHILLIES(Moyer), Day 1 (17-26 L1, -17.66 units YTD)
-102 Cubs(Gorzelanny) over REDS(Cueto), Day 2 (19-21 W1, -4.27 units YTD)
-124 Rangers(Holland) over ATHLETICS(Gonzalez), Day 2 (19-21 W1, -4.27 units YTD)
+143 PADRES(Stauffer) over Braves(Vazquez), Day 2 (24-13 L1, +9.42 units YTD)
-127 DODGERS(Kuroda) over Brewers(Gallardo), Day 2 (24-13 L1, +9.42 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 4 Units Each:

-150 Angels(Lackey) over WHITE SOX(Contreras), Day 1 (8-6 W5, +3.95 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 5-8 overall for -6.85 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 139-112, +9.52 units, +3.79% ROI, 0.624 z-score, p-value of 26.6%
2-unit plays: 154-137, -9.24 units, -1.59% ROI, -0.286 z-score, p-value of 61.3%
3-unit plays: 85-66, +4.67 units, +1.03% ROI, +0.140 z-score, p-value of 44.4%
4-unit plays: 69-39, +37.39 units, +8.66% ROI, 1.046 z-score, p-value of 14.8%

Overall: 447-354, +42.34 units, +2.46% ROI, 0.700 z-score, p-value of 24.2%

[billdo75]

Picks for 8/5/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-138 Cardinals(Lohse) over METS(Niese), Day 2 (17-13 W1, +4.54 units YTD)
+115 Giants(Martinez) over ASTROS(Moehler), Day 3 (14-16 L2, -1.62 units YTD)
+170 Orioles(Guthrie) over TIGERS(Jackson), Day 3 (14-16 L2, -1.62 units YTD)
-102 NATIONALS(Lannan) over Marlins(VandenHurk), Day 2 (32-19 L1, +6.14 units YTD)
+129 Red Sox(Penny) over DEVIL RAYS(Price), Day 2 (17-13 W1, +4.54 units YTD)
+105 ATHLETICS(Reineke) over Rangers(Padilla), Day 3 (21-14 L2, +4.90 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 3 Units Each:

-187 Cubs(Harden) over REDS(Lehr), Day 3 (7-4 W2, +10.41 units YTD)
-110 Mariners(French) over ROYALS(Davies), Day 2 (8-7 L3, +2.24 units YTD)
+122 Angels(O'Sullivan) over WHITE SOX(Floyd), Day 2 (8-7 L3, +2.24 units YTD)
-137 DODGERS(Schmidt) over Brewers(Looper), Day 3 (15-16 L2, -14.51 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

+135 Rockies(De La Rosa) over PHILLIES(Happ), Day 2 (4-6 W1, -11.24 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[AceofSP2107]

Billdo good job with the ATL game last night I just have one ? .. In your chase system you took the Phils but why would you put u self in a lost situation by taking Col for your 4 unit pick ??

[billdo75]

Billdo good job with the ATL game last night I just have one ? .. In your chase system you took the Phils but why would you put u self in a lost situation by taking Col for your 4 unit pick ??

They're two completely different systems. These picks are based on 4 criteria - home/away record, starting pitcher WHIP over their last 3 games, team W/L over their last 10 games, and runs scored over their last 10 games. Using those criteria, Colorado came out ahead in all 4, so they were the pick using this system. The chase system is just based off the lines. That's the one that's been most successful for me. This system was up nearly 70 units I think near the end of May and has been slowly whittling down ever since.

[AceofSP2107]

I see ....thanks for your reply and letting me no

[billdo75]

Picks went 4-7 overall for -10.09 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 142-115, +9.70 units, +3.77% ROI, 0.627 z-score, p-value of 26.5%
2-unit plays: 154-137, -9.24 units, -1.59% ROI, -0.286 z-score, p-value of 61.3%
3-unit plays: 86-69, -1.61 units, -0.35% ROI, -0.048 z-score, p-value of 51.9%
4-unit plays: 69-40, +33.39 units, +7.66% ROI, 0.926 z-score, p-value of 17.7%

Overall: 451-361, +32.25 units, +1.85% ROI, 0.529 z-score, p-value of 29.8%

[billdo75]

Picks for 8/6/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+135 Angels(Santana) over WHITE SOX(Danks), Day 3 (15-17 L1, -1.47 units YTD)
-139 PADRES(Richard) over Mets(Hernandez), Day 1 (31-21 L1, +1.76 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-130 TIGERS(Porcello) over Orioles(Hernandez), Day 4 (7-8 L1, -5.02 units YTD)
+104 ATHLETICS(Cahill) over Rangers(Hunter), Day 4 (7-8 L1, -5.02 units YTD)
-210 YANKEES(Chamberlain) over Red Sox(Smoltz), Day 1 (30-25 L2, -8.00 units YTD)
-128 Diamondbacks(Scherzer) over PIRATES(Hart), Day 3 (18-11 W2, +15.93 units YTD)
-130 DODGERS(Wolf) over Braves(Lowe), Day 1 (30-25 L2, -8.00 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

+140 INDIANS(Carmona) over Twins(Blackburn), Day 3 (15-17 L3, -17.51 units YTD)
+153 Rockies(Cook) over PHILLIES(Lee), Day 3 (7-5 L1, +7.41 units YTD)
-101 Mariners(Vargas) over ROYALS(Chen), Day 3 (7-5 L1, +7.41 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

No plays today

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 7-3 overall for +3.86 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 144-115, +11.77 units, +4.54% ROI, 0.757 z-score, p-value of 22.4%
2-unit plays: 158-138, -5.64 units, -0.95% ROI, -0.174 z-score, p-value of 56.9%
3-unit plays: 87-71, -3.41 units, -0.72% ROI, -0.100 z-score, p-value of 54.0%
4-unit plays: 69-40, +33.39 units, +7.66% ROI, 0.926 z-score, p-value of 17.7%

Overall: 458-364, +36.11 units, +2.05% ROI, 0.588 z-score, p-value of 27.8%

[ankh4all2]

Billdo,
I just looked back at your systems and love your work. I think the L10 runs and L10 wins might be redundant since we know they are so closely linked. What do you think about removing the L10 runs in favor of a relief pitching statistic as the 4th criteria??