Billdo's Just 4 Fun Picks

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/6/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-160 ASTROS(Hampton) over Pirates(Vasquez), Day 1 (16-11 W3, +1.47 units YTD)
-155 ANGELS(Weaver) over Rangers(Millwood), Day 1 (16-11 W3, +1.47 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-141 YANKEES(Pettitte) over Blue Jays(Romero), Day 4 (3-2 W1, +0.33 units YTD)
-111 CUBS(Wells) over Braves(Jurrjens), Day 1 (17-19 L2, -13.09 units YTD)
+148 Reds(Cueto) over PHILLIES(Hamels), Day 1 (13-16 L2, -5.91 units YTD)
-200 ROCKIES(Marquis) over Nationals(Stammen), Day 1 (17-19 L2, -13.09 units YTD)
-162 GIANTS(Cain) over Marlins(West), Day 1 (17-19 L2, -13.09 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-129 TIGERS(Galarraga) over Royals(Meche), Day 1 (5-7 L5, -8.83 units YTD)
-200 RED SOX(Smoltz) over Athletics(Anderson), Day 1 (5-7 L5, -8.83 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 5-4 overall for -4.69 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 85-75, -0.67 units, +0.60% ROI, 0.050 z-score, p-value of 48.0%
2-unit plays: 111-96, +4.07 units, +0.98% ROI, 0.148 z-score, p-value of 44.1%
3-unit plays: 48-42, +2.51 units, +0.93% ROI, 0.094 z-score, p-value of 46.3%
4-unit plays: 44-26, +19.53 units, +6.97% ROI, 0.684 z-score, p-value of 24.7%

Overall: 288-239, +26.72 units, +2.38% ROI, 0.542 z-score, p-value of 29.4%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/7/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+185 Royals(Chen) over TIGERS(Verlander), Day 2 (9-10 L3, -0.82 units YTD)
-200 DEVIL RAYS(Shields) over Blue Jays(Rzepczynski), Day 1 (18-11 W5, +2.74 units YTD)
-260 RED SOX(Beckett) over Athletics(Eveland), Day 2 (22-17 W1, -0.15 units YTD)
-142 BREWERS(Gallardo) over Cardinals(Wainwright), Day 1 (18-11 W5, +2.74 units YTD)
-153 DIAMONDBACKS(Davis) over Padres(Correia), Day 2 (22-17 W1, -0.15 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+104 CUBS(Dempster) over Braves(Vazquez), Day 2 (18-9 W3, +10.20 units YTD)
-142 PHILLIES(Happ) over Reds(Harang), Day 2 (18-9 W3, +10.20 units YTD)
-152 WHITE SOX(Buehrle) over Indians(Sowers), Day 1 (20-19 W3, -9.05 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-173 ANGELS(Lackey) over Rangers(Nippert), Day 2 (19-8 L1, +21.70 units YTD)
-138 MARINERS(Bedard) over Orioles(Guthrie), Day 2 (19-8 L1, +21.70 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-135 Dodgers(Kershaw) over METS(Pelfrey), Day 1 (6-6 W3, -2.00 units YTD)
-120 ASTROS(Moehler) over Pirates(Maholm), Day 2 (6-4 W2, +0.66 units YTD)
-140 ROCKIES(Hammel) over Nationals(Zimmermann), Day 2 (6-4 W2, +0.66 units YTD)
+116 GIANTS(Zito) over Marlins(Johnson), Day 2 (6-4 W2, +0.66 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 7-6 overall (Cubs game was no action because Zambrano started instead of Dempster) for -0.69 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 88-77, +0.14 units, +0.09% ROI, 0.012 z-score, p-value of 49.5%
2-unit plays: 112-97, +3.39 units, +0.81% ROI, 0.123 z-score, p-value of 45.1%
3-unit plays: 48-44, -3.49 units, -1.26% ROI, -0.129 z-score, p-value of 55.1%
4-unit plays: 47-27, +25.99 units, +8.78% ROI, 0.881 z-score, p-value of 18.9%

Overall: 295-245, +26.03 units, +2.25% ROI, 0.520 z-score, p-value of 30.2%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/8/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-160 DIAMONDBACKS(Scherzer) over Padres(Gaudin), Day 3 (11-7 L1, +2.88 units YTD)
-120 MARINERS(Vargas) over Orioles(Hernandez), Day 3 (11-7 L1, +2.88 units YTD)
-131 Royals(Greinke) over TIGERS(French), Day 3 (11-10 W2, +1.85 units YTD)
-155 DEVIL RAYS(Kazmir) over Blue Jays(Tallet), Day 2 (24-17 W3, +0.89 units YTD)
+106 Cardinals(Wellemeyer) over BREWERS(Suppan), Day 2 (9-11 L4, -1.82 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-168 ASTROS(Rodriguez) over Pirates(Morton), Day 3 (26-17 W3, +9.98 units YTD)
-117 CUBS(Hart) over Braves(Kawakami), Day 3 (26-17 W3, +9.98 units YTD)
-117 GIANTS(Sadowski) over Marlins(Volstad), Day 3 (26-17 W3, +9.98 units YTD)
-132 Yankees(Burnett) over TWINS(Perkins), Day 2 (13-19 L3, -10.70 units YTD)
-133 ANGELS(Santana) over Rangers(Padilla), Day 3 (26-17 W3, +9.98 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-175 ROCKIES(De La Rose) over Nationals(Detwiler), Day 3 (7-9 W1, -8.10 units YTD)
-172 RED SOX(Wakefield) over Athletics(Cahill), Day 3 (7-9 W1, -8.10 units YTD)
-139 Dodgers(Kuroda) over METS(Perez), Day 2 (8-4 W1, +11.24 units YTD)
-142 WHITE SOX(Contreras) over Indians(Laffey), Day 2 (19-10 L3, +15.70 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

No plays today

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 7-7 overall for -2.45 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 90-80, -1.59 units, -0.93% ROI, -0.127 z-score, p-value of 55.1%
2-unit plays: 114-100, +0.09 units, +0.02% ROI, 0.003 z-score, p-value of 49.9%
3-unit plays: 51-45, -0.92 units, -0.32% ROI, -0.033 z-score, p-value of 51.3%
4-unit plays: 47-27, +25.99 units, +8.78% ROI, 0.881 z-score, p-value of 18.9%

Overall: 302-252, +23.58 units, +1.99% ROI, 0.467 z-score, p-value of 32.0%

[billdo75]

Just realized I didn't put my picks up yet. D'oh!



Picks for 7/9/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+114 DEVIL RAYS(Price) over Blue Jays(Halladay), Day 3 (12-8 L1, +2.51 units YTD)
-105 Yankees(Aceves) over TWINS(Liriano), Day 3 (11-11 L1, +0.85 units YTD)
-110 Cardinals(Pineiro) over BREWERS(Parra), Day 3 (11-11 L1, +0.85 units YTD)
-200 RED SOX(Penny) over Royals(Hochevar), Day 1 (19-12 L1, +2.24 units YTD)
+165 Rangers(Hunter) over MARINERS(Hernandez), Day 4 (1-0 W1, +1.17 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-123 WHITE SOX(Richard) over Indians(Huff), Day 3 (27-20 L3, +5.17 units YTD)
-155 PHILLIES(Moyer) over Reds(Owings), Day 4 (3-3 L1, -1.67 units YTD)
-290 GIANTS(Lincecum) over Padres(Geer), Day 1 (21-19 W4, -7.74 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 4 Units Each:

-150 Dodgers(Wolf) over METS(Hernandez), Day 3 (5-3 L1, +7.55 units YTD)
-116 ASTROS(Ortiz) over Nationals(Lannan), Day 1 (8-5 W1, -3.59 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 7-3 overall for +7.10 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 93-82, -0.59 units, -0.33% ROI, -0.046 z-score, p-value of 51.8%
2-unit plays: 116-101, +0.07 units, +0.02% ROI, 0.003 z-score, p-value of 49.9%
3-unit plays: 51-45, -0.92 units, -0.32% ROI, -0.033 z-score, p-value of 51.3%
4-unit plays: 49-27, +32.10 units, +10.56% ROI, 1.073 z-score, p-value of 14.2%

Overall: 309-255, +30.67 units, +2.55% ROI, 0.603 z-score, p-value of 27.3%

[billdo75]

Sorry about getting the picks up late. It's been a busy morning. On with the picks...



Picks for 7/10/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-115 Cardinals(Carpenter) over CUBS(Harden), Day 1 (13-19 L2, -6.07 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-140 TIGERS(Jackson) over Indians(Lee), Day 1 (22-19 W5, -7.05 units YTD)
-170 PHILLIES(Blanton) over Pirates(Duke), Day 1 (22-19 W5, -7.05 units YTD)
-250 RED SOX(Lester) over Royals(Bannister), Day 2 (18-10 L1, +8.20 units YTD)
+111 White Sox(Danks) over TWINS(Blackburn), Day 1 (13-17 L3, -7.91 units YTD)
-129 Yankees(Chamberlain) over ANGELS(Saunders), Day 1 (13-17 L3, -7.91 units YTD)
-112 Rangers(Feldman) over MARINERS(Morrow), Day 2 (14-19 W1, -9.19 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-162 DEVIL RAYS(Niemann) over Athletics(Mazzaro), Day 1 (5-9 L7, -14.83 units YTD)
-185 ASTROS(Oswalt) over Nationals(Olsen), Day 2 (20-10 W1, +17.81 units YTD)
-144 ROCKIES(Jimenez) over Braves(Lowe), Day 2 (20-10 W1, +17.81 units YTD)
-150 GIANTS(Sanchez) over Padres(Banks), Day 2 (20-10 W1, +17.81 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-104 ORIOLES(Berken) over Blue Jays(Cecil), Day 1 (9-5 W2, -0.14 units YTD)
-134 Dodgers(Billingsley), over BREWERS(Looper), Day 1 (7-6 W4, +0.96 units YTD)
+139 Marlins(Nolasco) over DIAMONDBACKS(Haren), Day 2 (3-4 W3, -5.82 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[ram1502]

On all 3 of your 4 unit plays. Good luck to us.

[billdo75]

Picks went 9-5 overall for -0.48 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 94-82, +0.28 units, +0.16% ROI, 0.022 z-score, p-value of 49.1%
2-unit plays: 120-103, +1.26 units, +0.28% ROI, 0.045 z-score, p-value of 48.2%
3-unit plays: 54-46, +1.56 units, +0.52% ROI, 0.056 z-score, p-value of 47.8%
4-unit plays: 50-29, +27.09 units, +8.57% ROI, 0.881 z-score, p-value of 18.9%

Overall: 318-260, +30.19 units, +2.44% ROI, 0.583 z-score, p-value of 28.0%

[billdo75]

Results from today:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-104 ANGELS(Weaver) over Yankees(Pettitte), Day 2 (25-17 W4, +1.53 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-185 DEVIL RAYS(Garza) over Athletics(Braden), Day 2 (19-10 W1, +9.00 units YTD)
+104 ORIOLES(Hill) over Blue Jays(Romero), Day 2 (19-10 W1, +9.00 units YTD)
-260 PHILLIES(Hamels) over Pirates(Ohlendorf), Day 2 (19-10 W1, +9.00 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-156 ASTROS(Hampton) over Nationals(Stammen), Day 3 (9-9 W3, -4.64 units YTD)
-111 Dodgers(Weaver) over BREWERS(Burns), Day 2 (8-5 L1, +8.24 units YTD)
-117 ROCKIES(Marquis) over Braves(Jurrjens), Day 3 (9-9 W3, -4.64 units YTD)
-260 GIANTS(Cain) over Padres(Stauffer), Day 3 (9-9 W3, -4.64 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-123 TIGERS(Galarraga) over Indians(Pavano), Day 2 (8-5 W2, +4.16 units YTD)
-173 RED SOX(Smoltz) over Royals(Meche), Day 3 (14-4 W2, +18.32 units YTD)

Picks went 5-5 overall for -7.72 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 95-82, +1.25 units, +0.70% ROI, 0.098 z-score, p-value of 46.1%
2-unit plays: 122-104, +2.11 units, +0.47% ROI, 0.074 z-score, p-value of 47.0%
3-unit plays: 55-49, -6.29 units, -2.02% ROI, -0.223 z-score, p-value of 58.8%
4-unit plays: 51-30, +25.40 units, +7.84% ROI, 0.817 z-score, p-value of 20.7%

Overall: 323-265, +22.47 units, +1.78% ROI, 0.430 z-score, p-value of 33.4%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/12/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-230 TIGERS(Verlander) over Indians(Ohka), Day 3 (13-8 W1, +3.65 units YTD)
+100 Reds(Harang) over METS(Pelfrey), Day 3 (13-11 W2, +2.71 units YTD)
+126 Braves(Medlen) over ROCKIES(Hammel), Day 4 (1-1 L1, +0.17 units YTD)
+131 ANGELS(Lackey) over Yankees(Sabathia), Day 3 (13-8 W1, +3.65 units YTD)
-150 MARINERS(Bedard) over Rangers(Nippert), Day 4 (0-1 L1, -1.00 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-190 DEVIL RAYS(Shields) over Athletics(Anderson), Day 3 (27-21 L4, +3.17 units YTD)
-109 ASTROS(Moehler) over Nationals(Zimmermann), Day 4 (4-3 W1, -0.38 units YTD)
+121 White Sox(Buehrle) over TWINS(Baker), Day 3 (16-8 L1, +17.85 units YTD)
+109 DIAMONDBACKS(Davis) over Marlins(Johnson), Day 4 (4-3 W1, -0.38 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-118 ORIOLES(Bergesen) over Blue Jays(Rzepczynski), Day 3 (10-11 W1, -9.49 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-330 RED SOX(Beckett) over Royals(Chen), Day 4 (2-0 W2, +4.40 units YTD)
-250 PHILLIES(Happ) over Pirates(Vasquez), Day 3 (15-4 W3, +20.63 units YTD)
+113 Dodgers(Kershaw) over BREWERS(Gallardo), Day 3 (6-3 W1, +10.22 units YTD)
-127 GIANTS(Zito) over Padres(Correia), Day 4 (2-0 W2, +4.40 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 8-6 overall for +2.12 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 98-84, +1.66 units, +0.91% ROI, 0.128 z-score, p-value of 44.9%
2-unit plays: 123-107, -2.05 units, -0.45% ROI, -0.072 z-score, p-value of 52.9%
3-unit plays: 56-49, -3.75 units, -1.19% ROI, -0.132 z-score, p-value of 55.3%
4-unit plays: 54-31, +28.73 units, +8.45% ROI, 0.905 z-score, p-value of 18.3%

Overall: 331-271, +24.59 units, +1.90% ROI, 0.464 z-score, p-value of 32.1%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/16/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

No plays today

Risk 2 Units Each:

+108 Phillies(Moyer) over MARLINS(Volstad), Day 1 (13-19 L5, -11.91 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-200 BRAVES(Lowe) over Mets(Perez), Day 1 (6-9 W1, -12.97 units YTD)
+185 Mariners(Olson) over INDIANS(Lee), Day 1 (2-3 L1, -2.90 units YTD)
+114 Angels(Santana) over ATHLETICS(Braden), Day 1 (2-3 L1, -2.90 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-150 DODGERS(Wolf) over Astros(Rodriguez), Day 1 (9-6 L1, -4.14 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 3-2 overall for +0.08 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 98-84, +1.66 units, +0.91% ROI, 0.128 z-score, p-value of 44.9%
2-unit plays: 124-107, +0.11 units, +0.02% ROI, 0.004 z-score, p-value of 49.8%
3-unit plays: 58-50, -1.83 units, -0.56% ROI, -0.063 z-score, p-value of 52.5%
4-unit plays: 54-32, +24.73 units, +7.19% ROI, 0.775 z-score, p-value of 21.9%

Overall: 334-273, +24.67 units, +1.88% ROI, 0.462 z-score, p-value of 32.2%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/17/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-153 Mariners(Hernandez) over INDIANS(Ohka), Day 2 (9-12 L5, -2.82 units YTD)
-240 YANKEES(Burnett) over Tigers(French), Day 1 (19-13 L2, +1.24 units YTD)
-130 Cubs(Zambrano) over NATIONALS(Stammen), Day 2 (9-12 L5, -2.82 units YTD)
+106 Red Sox(Buchholz) over BLUE JAYS(Romero), Day 1 (14-19 W1, -5.20 units YTD)
-123 RANGERS(Padilla) over Twins(Perkins), Day 1 (19-13 L2, +1.24 units YTD)
+132 ROYALS(Bannister) over Devil Rays(Shields), Day 1 (19-13 L2, +1.24 units YTD)
+150 Astros(Oswalt) over DODGERS(Billingsley), Day 2 (9-12 L5, -2.82 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-155 Giants(Lincecum) over PIRATES(Maholm), Day 1 (14-19 W1, -9.75 units YTD)
-128 Phillies(Hamels) over MARLINS(Nolasco), Day 2 (15-19 W2, -7.40 units YTD)
+190 Diamondbacks(Garland) over CARDINALS(Carpenter), Day 1 (14-19 W1, -9.75 units YTD)
-105 Angels(Saunders) over ATHLETICS(Cahill), Day 2 (15-19 W2, -7.40 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-220 BRAVES(Jurrjens) over Mets(Pelfrey), Day 2 (22-11 W1, +18.43 units YTD)
-160 WHITE SOX(Danks) over Orioles(Berken), Day 1 (7-9 W2, -11.47 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

+116 Brewers(Suppan) over REDS(Arroyo), Day 2 (3-5 L1, -9.82 units YTD)
-155 Rockies(Jimenez) over PADRES(Geer), Day 2 (3-5 L1, -9.82 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 9-6 overall for -0.22 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 103-86, +4.06 units, +2.15% ROI, 0.307 z-score, p-value of 37.9%
2-unit plays: 125-110, -4.33 units, -0.92% ROI, -0.149 z-score, p-value of 55.9%
3-unit plays: 60-50, +1.41 units, +0.43% ROI, +0.049 z-score, p-value of 48.1%
4-unit plays: 55-33, +23.31 units, +6.62% ROI, 0.720 z-score, p-value of 23.6%

Overall: 343-279, +24.45 units, +1.82% ROI, 0.453 z-score, p-value of 32.5%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/19/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-230 CARDINALS(Pineiro) over Diamondbacks(Petit), Day 3 (15-8 W3, +5.39 units YTD)
+101 Twins(Liriano) over RANGERS(Holland), Day 3 (13-12 L1, +1.71 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+102 Red Sox(Lester) over BLUE JAYS(Halladay), Day 3 (16-9 L2, +15.85 units YTD)
+100 PIRATES(Duke) over Giants(Cain), Day 3 (27-22 L5, +1.17 units YTD)
-112 Angels(Lackey) over ATHETLICS(Anderson), Day 4 (2-4 L4, -4.63 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-112 Mariners(Bedard) over INDIANS(Laffey), Day 4 (0-1 L1, -3.00 units YTD)
-112 Cubs(Hart) over NATIONALS(Mock), Day 4 (0-1 L1, -3.00 units YTD)
-140 WHITE SOX(Contreras) over Orioles(Guthrie), Day 3 (11-11 W2, -6.95 units YTD)
-130 Rockies(Marquis) over PADRES(Latos), Day 4 (0-1 L1, -3.00 units YTD)
-250 BRAVES(Vazquez) over Mets(Nieve), Day 4 (2-4 L2, -7.22 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-122 Brewers(Gallardo) over REDS(Cueto), Day 4 (0-0 YTD)
-111 Phillies(Happ) over MARLINS(Miller), Day 3 (7-3 W2, +14.74 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/20/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-200 YANKEES(Pettitte) over Orioles(Hernandez), Day 1 (20-15 L2, -0.34 units YTD)
-112 PHILLIES(Lopez) over Cubs(Lilly), Day 1 (20-15 L2, -0.34 units YTD)
+113 Mets(Hernandez) over NATIONALS(Martin), Day 1 (15-19 W2, -4.14 units YTD)
-101 WHITE SOX(Floyd) over Devil Rays(Price), Day 1 (20-15 L2, -0.34 units YTD)
+111 ATHLETICS(Gonzalez) over Twins(Blackburn), Day 1 (20-15 L2, -0.34 units YTD)
+100 PADRES(Stauffer) over Marlins(VandenHurk), Day 1 (20-15 L2, -0.34 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-150 DODGERS(Schmidt) over Reds(Owings), Day 1 (24-19 W7, -4.44 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-175 BRAVES(Hanson) over Giants(Sanchez), Day 1 (8-9 W3, -9.60 units YTD)
-119 Angels(O'Sullivan) over ROYALS(Ponson), Day 1 (3-4 W1, -2.48 units YTD)
-150 ROCKIES(De La Rosa) over Diamondbacks(Davis), Day 1 (8-9 W3, -9.60 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

No plays today

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 15-6 overall (last 2 days) for +11.88 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 109-88, +7.11 units, +3.61% ROI, 0.528 z-score, p-value of 29.9%
2-unit plays: 127-112, -5.21 units, -1.09% ROI, -0.178 z-score, p-value of 57.1%
3-unit plays: 66-51, +11.51 units, +3.28% ROI, +0.385 z-score, p-value of 35.0%
4-unit plays: 56-34, +22.92 units, +6.37% ROI, 0.699 z-score, p-value of 24.2%

Overall: 358-285, +36.33 units, +2.62% ROI, 0.663 z-score, p-value of 25.4%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/21/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-185 YANKEES(Mitre) over Orioles(Hill), Day 2 (26-17 W5, +2.49 units YTD)
+143 Mariners(Olson) over TIGERS(Porcello), Day 1 (16-19 W3, -3.01 units YTD)
+155 RANGERS(Hunter) over Red Sox(Beckett), Day 2 (26-17 W5, +2.49 units YTD)
-121 Devil Rays(Niemann) over WHITE SOX(Richard), Day 2 (12-12 W3, +0.11 units YTD)
-128 ATHLETICS(Braden) over Twins(Swarzak), Day 2 (26-17 W5, +2.49 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-155 ASTROS(Rodriguez) over Cardinals(Wellemeyer), Day 2 (21-11 W2, +9.85 units YTD)
-112 Marlins(Volstad) over PADRES(Gaudin), Day 2 (16-20 L1, -7.84 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-200 BRAVES(Lowe) over Giants(Sadowski), Day 2 (23-11 W2, +19.80 units YTD)
+133 Mets(Perez) over NATIONALS(Lannan), Day 2 (8-6 L2, +5.24 units YTD)
+102 BLUE JAYS(Cecil) over Indians(Lee), Day 1 (10-9 W5, -5.36 units YTD)
-143 ROCKIES(Cook) over Diamondbacks(Scherzer), Day 2 (23-11 W2, +19.80 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-122 PHILLIES(Blanton) over Cubs(Harden), Day 2 (8-6 L1, +0.16 units YTD)
-195 DODGERS(Wolf) over Reds(Bailey), Day 2 (8-6 L1, +0.16 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 8-5 overall for +1.82 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 112-90, +8.03 units, +3.98% ROI, 0.588 z-score, p-value of 27.8%
2-unit plays: 129-112, -2.13 units, -0.44% ROI, -0.073 z-score, p-value of 52.9%
3-unit plays: 67-54, +4.01 units, +1.11% ROI, +0.132 z-score, p-value of 44.8%
4-unit plays: 58-34, +28.25 units, +7.68% ROI, 0.853 z-score, p-value of 19.7%

Overall: 366-290, +38.16 units, +2.70% ROI, 0.689 z-score, p-value of 24.6%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/22/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-129 Mariners(Hernandez) over TIGERS(Galarraga), Day 2 (13-12 W4, +0.93 units YTD)
-150 BLUE JAYS(Romero) over Indians(Pavano), Day 2 (28-18 L1, +3.58 units YTD)
-132 Devil Rays(Shields) over WHITE SOX(Torres), Day 3 (13-13 L2, +0.71 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-340 YANKEES(Burnett) over Orioles(Berken), Day 3 (27-23 L6, -0.83 units YTD)
+100 Twins(Perkins) over ATHLETICS(Cahill), Day 3 (16-10 L3, +13.85 units YTD)
-110 BRAVES(Jurrjens) over Giants(Lincecum), Day 3 (27-23 L6, -0.83 units YTD)
+123 RANGERS(Padilla) over Red Sox(Buchholz), Day 3 (27-23 L6, -0.83 units YTD)
-112 Angels(Saunders) over ROYALS(Bannister), Day 2 (17-20 W1, -6.05 units YTD)
-210 DODGERS(Billingsley) over Reds(Arroyo), Day 3 (27-23 L6, -0.83 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-103 PIRATES(Maholm) over Brewers(Suppan), Day 3 (11-12 L1, -9.95 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

+107 PHILLIES(Moyer) over Cubs(Zambrano), Day 3 (16-4 W4, +22.23 units YTD)
-220 ROCKIES(Jimenez) over Diamondbacks(Garland), Day 3 (16-4 W4, +22.23 units YTD)
-144 Marlins(Nolasco) over PADRES(Geer), Day 3 (8-3 W3, +18.34 units YTD)
+102 ASTROS(Oswalt) over Cardinals(Carpenter), Day 3 (16-4 W4, +22.23 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 11-3 overall for +13.63 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 114-91, +8.47 units, +4.13% ROI, 0.617 z-score, p-value of 26.9%
2-unit plays: 134-113, +3.47 units, +0.70% ROI, 0.117 z-score, p-value of 45.3%
3-unit plays: 68-54, +6.92 units, +1.89% ROI, +0.227 z-score, p-value of 41.0%
4-unit plays: 61-35, +32.92 units, +8.57% ROI, 0.971 z-score, p-value of 16.6%

Overall: 377-293, +51.79 units, +3.57% ROI, 0.922 z-score, p-value of 17.8%

[themajormt]

Nice day yesterday... Care to give a quick run down of what youre doing and where you come up with the different unit plays?

Thanks and gl!

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/23/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-220 DIAMONDBACKS(Haren) over Pirates(Morton), Day 1 (24-16 L1, +2.15 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-178 BRAVES(Kawakami) over Giants(Zito), Day 4 (5-4 L1, -0.54 units YTD)
+109 Mariners(Washburn) over TIGERS(French), Day 3 (16-11 L4, +11.85 units YTD)
-260 YANKEES(Sabathia) over Athletics(Mazzaro), Day 1 (25-19 W8, -3.11 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-163 BLUE JAYS(Rzepczynski) over Indians(Huff), Day 3 (12-12 W1, -7.03 units YTD)
-175 Cardinals(Wainwright) over NATIONALS(Balester), Day 1 (3-4 W1, -2.48 units YTD)
-152 ANGELS(Weaver) over Twins(Baker), Day 1 (10-10 L1, -8.36 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-300 PHILLIES(Hamels) over Padres(Correia), Day 1 (9-7 L2, -8.14 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 6-2 overall for +3.43 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 115-91, +8.93 units, +4.33% ROI, 0.649 z-score, p-value of 25.8%
2-unit plays: 136-114, +4.42 units, +0.88% ROI, 0.148 z-score, p-value of 44.1%
3-unit plays: 70-55, +7.61 units, +2.03% ROI, +0.247 z-score, p-value of 40.2%
4-unit plays: 62-35, +34.26 units, +8.83% ROI, 1.008 z-score, p-value of 15.7%

Overall: 383-295, +55.22 units, +3.76% ROI, 0.979 z-score, p-value of 16.4%

[billdo75]

I didn't post my picks yesterday. I don't know if it's some new "feature" in the IE7 that I have to use at work or not, but it always seems to flake out when I'm trying to post my morning plays. Anyways, the results from yesterday:

Picks went 5-8 overall for -3.99 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 116-93, +7.52 units, +3.60% ROI, 0.543 z-score, p-value of 29.3%
2-unit plays: 137-118, -1.18 units, -0.23% ROI, -0.039 z-score, p-value of 51.6%
3-unit plays: 71-57, +5.66 units, +1.47% ROI, +0.181 z-score, p-value of 42.8%
4-unit plays: 64-35, +39.22 units, +9.91% ROI, 1.145 z-score, p-value of 12.6%

Overall: 388-303, +51.23 units, +3.42% ROI, 0.899 z-score, p-value of 18.4%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/26/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+104 BLUE JAYS(Cecil) over Devil Rays(Niemann), Day 3 (16-8 W4, +5.83 units YTD)
-155 ASTROS(Moehler) over Mets(Hernandez), Day 3 (16-8 W4, +5.83 units YTD)
-150 Rangers(Millwood) over ROYALS(Ponson), Day 3 (13-14 L3, -0.29 units YTD)
+125 MARINERS(Vargas) over Indians(Lee), Day 3 (16-8 W4, +5.83 units YTD)
-190 DIAMONDBACKS(Scherzer) over Pirates(Vasquez), Day 4 (1-1 W1, -0.33 units YTD)
-131 DODGERS(Schmidt) over Marlins(Volstad), Day 3 (16-8 W4, +5.83 units YTD)
-135 TIGERS(Porcello) over White Sox(Richard), Day 3 (16-8 W4, +5.83 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 3 Units Each:

-177 YANKEES(Mitre) over Athletics(Braden), Day 4 (3-4 W1, -6.02 units YTD)
-190 RED SOX(Smoltz) over Orioles(Hernandez), Day 3 (12-13 L1, -10.03 units YTD)
-164 PHILLIES(Blanton) over Cardinals(Wellemeyer), Day 3 (12-13 L1, -10.03 units YTD)
-225 CUBS(Harden) over Reds(Owings), Day 3 (12-13 L1, -10.03 units YTD)
-220 ROCKIES(Cook) over Giants(Sadowski), Day 3 (12-13 L1, -10.03 units YTD)
-144 ANGELS(Santana) over Twins(Swarzak), Day 4 (3-4 W1, -6.02 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-144 NATIONALS(Lannan) over Padres(Gaudin), Day 3 (18-5 W2, +24.13 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 8-6 overall for +1.23 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 119-97, +5.76 units, +2.66% ROI, 0.410 z-score, p-value of 34.1%
2-unit plays: 137-118, -1.18 units, -0.23% ROI, -0.039 z-score, p-value of 51.6%
3-unit plays: 75-59, +5.88 units, +1.46% ROI, +0.186 z-score, p-value of 42.6%
4-unit plays: 65-35, +42.00 units, +10.50% ROI, 1.220 z-score, p-value of 11.1%

Overall: 396-309, +52.46 units, +3.43% ROI, 0.914 z-score, p-value of 18.0%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/27/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-350 RED SOX(Beckett) over Athletics(Cahill), Day 1 (26-18 L2, +1.20 units YTD)
-173 REDS(Bailey) over Padres(Geer), Day 1 (26-18 L2, +1.20 units YTD)
+143 Nationals(Stammen) over BREWERS(Suppan), Day 1 (16-20 L1, -4.01 units YTD)
-108 TWINS(Perkins) over White Sox(Danks), Day 1 (26-18 L2, +1.20 units YTD)
-154 ANGELS(Saunders) over Indians(Pavano), Day 1 (26-18 L2, +1.20 units YTD)
+225 Pirates(Maholm) over GIANTS(Lincecum), Day 1 (16-20 L1, -4.01 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each

+145 Dodgers(Wolf) over CARDINALS(Carpenter), Day 1 (14-21 L2, -13.75 units YTD)
-154 CUBS(Zambrano) over Astros(Rodriguez), Day 1 (27-22 L1, -5.94 units YTD)
-112 Phillies(Moyer) over DIAMONDBACKS(Garland), Day 1 (14-21 L2, -13.75 units YTD)
-175 MARINERS(Hernandez) over Blue Jays(Romero), Day 1 (27-22 L1, -5.94 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each

-158 ORIOLES(Hill) over Royals(Chen), Day 1 (11-12 L2, -12.39 units YTD)
-142 RANGERS(Hunter) over Tigers(Galarraga), Day 1 (11-12 L2, -12.39 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each

No plays today

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 7-5 overall for -0.58 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 123-99, +6.98 units, +3.14% ROI, 0.489 z-score, p-value of 31.2%
2-unit plays: 139-120, -2.10 units, -0.40% ROI, -0.069 z-score, p-value of 52.8%
3-unit plays: 76-60, +5.00 units, +1.22% ROI, +0.157 z-score, p-value of 43.8%
4-unit plays: 65-35, +42.00 units, +10.50% ROI, 1.220 z-score, p-value of 11.1%

Overall: 403-314, +51.88 units, +3.35% ROI, 0.899 z-score, p-value of 18.4%

[billdo75]

Picks for 7/28/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+111 Royals(Bannister) over ORIOLES(Berken), Day 2 (14-12 W5, +1.71 units YTD)
+119 METS(Pelfrey) over Rockies(Marquis), Day 2 (29-18 W1, +4.25 units YTD)
+175 Nationals(Balester) over BREWERS(Villanueva), Day 2 (14-12 W5, +1.71 units YTD)
-127 TWINS(Baker) over White Sox(Buehrle), Day 2 (29-18 W1, +4.25 units YTD)
-110 MARINERS(Washburn) over Blue Jays(Rzepczynski), Day 2 (29-18 W1, +4.25 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-135 Yankees(Sabathia) over DEVIL RAYS(Kazmir), Day 2 (18-20 W2, -4.27 units YTD)
-117 Braves(Jurrjens) over MARLINS(Nolasco), Day 1 (15-22 W1, -13.96 units YTD)
+100 Phillies(Hamels) over DIAMONDBACKS(Haren), Day 2 (18-20 W2, -4.27 units YTD)
-210 ANGELS(Weaver) over Indians(Huff), Day 2 (22-12 L1, +9.14 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-235 RED SOX(Buchholz) over Athletics(Mazzaro), Day 2 (24-12 L1, +18.30 units YTD)
-130 RANGERS(Padilla) over Tigers(French), Day 2 (24-12 L1, +18.30 units YTD)
-112 CUBS(Dempster) over Astros(Oswalt), Day 2 (24-12 L1, +18.30 units YTD)
-128 GIANTS(Zito) over Pirates(Morton), Day 2 (24-12 L1, +18.30 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-138 REDS(Arroyo) over Padres(Correia), Day 2 (11-6 W3, +8.10 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 9-5 overall for -0.65 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 128-99, +12.72 units, +5.60% ROI, 0.880 z-score, p-value of 18.9%
2-unit plays: 141-122, -3.14 units, -0.60% ROI, -0.103 z-score, p-value of 54.1%
3-unit plays: 78-62, +3.65 units, +0.87% ROI, +0.113 z-score, p-value of 45.5%
4-unit plays: 65-36, +38.00 units, +9.41% ROI, 1.099 z-score, p-value of 13.6%

Overall: 412-319, +51.23 units, +3.25% ROI, 0.881 z-score, p-value of 18.9%