Billdo's Just 4 Fun Picks

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/5/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+101 Mets(Redding) over NATIONALS(Martis), Day 1 (3-6 L1, -3.26 units YTD)
+112 REDS(Owings) over Cubs(Zambrano), Day 1 (6-4 W1, +1.00 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+135 BLUE JAYS(Romero) over Royals(Greinke), Day 1 (6-6 W1, -3.88 units YTD)
-163 MARLINS(Volstad) over Giants(Zito), Day 1 (6-6 W1, -3.88 units YTD)
+110 Brewers(Gallardo) over BRAVES(Jurrjens), Day 1 (7-9 L3, -2.75 units YTD)
-175 CARDINALS(Wainwright) over Rockies(De La Rosa), Day 1 (6-6 W1, -3.88 units YTD)
-158 MARINERS(Hernandez) over Twins(Liriano), Day 1 (6-6 W1, -3.88 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-200 YANKEES(Sabathia) over Devil Rays(Price), Day 1 (5-2 W2, +6.17 units YTD)
-105 PADRES(Gaudin) over Diamondbacks(Davis), Day 1 (5-2 W2, +6.17 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-134 RED SOX(Penny) over Rangers(Millwood), Day 1 (2-1 L1, +0.05 units YTD)
+118 Phillies(Moyer) over DODGERS(Milton), Day 2 (0-2 L2, -8.00 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 3-7 yesterday. I don't have exact numbers because I don't have my own computer. The big moving day is here, so I will probably be sans internet for the next couple of days. As soon as I get it back, I'll post up the full results for today's games and resume the picks. I'll even backcheck these dark days just so the system can still be tracked. BOL, everyone!

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/8/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+117 Rockies(Marquis) over CARDINALS(Thompson), Day 4 (0-0 YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-160 YANKEES(Pettitte) over Devil Rays(Sonnanstine), Day 3 (9-9 W2, -3.34 units YTD)
+118 Giants(Johnson) over MARLINS(West), Day 4 (2-0 W2, +3.37 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 4 Units Each:

-155 RANGERS(Feldman) over Blue Jays(Janssen), Day 1 (2-2 L2, -3.95 units YTD)
-142 ATHLETICS(Outman) over Twins(Swarzak), Day 1 (2-2 L2, -3.95 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 3-2 overall for -0.76 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 31-29, -2.47 units, -4.12% ROI, -0.338 z-score, p-value of 63.2%
2-unit plays: 47-46, -6.33 units, -3.41% ROI, -0.343 z-score, p-value of 63.4%
3-unit plays: 26-13, +32.81 units, +28.04% ROI, 1.813 z-score, p-value of 3.5%
4-unit plays: 19-11, +7.92 units, +6.60% ROI, 0.420 z-score, p-value of 33.7%

Overall: 123-99, +31.92 units, +6.61% ROI, 0.973 z-score, p-value of 16.5%

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/9/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-210 BRAVES(Lowe) over Pirates(Ohlendorf), Day 2 (11-8 L2, -0.24 units YTD)
-114 Reds(Cueto) over NATIONALS(Zimmermann), Day 1(4-6 W1, -2.25 units YTD)
+106 Blue Jays(Tallet) over RANGERS(Mathis), Day 2 (2-2 W2, -0.42 units YTD)
-128 BREWERS(Looper) over Rockies(Hammel), Day 1 (6-5 L1, +0.00 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+117 Mariners(Vargas) over ORIOLES(Bergesen), Day 1 (8-9 W1, -0.55 units YTD)
-128 DEVIL RAYS(Shields) over Angels(Weaver), Day 1 (7-9 L3, -7.18 units YTD)
+115 ASTROS(Moehler) over Cubs(Lilly), Day 1 (7-9 L3, -7.18 units YTD)
+107 DIAMONDBACKS(Buckner) over Giants(Cain), Day 1 (7-9 L3, -7.18 units YTD)
-105 ATHLETICS(Anderson) over Twins(Baker), Day 2 (6-3 W4, +5.49 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 4 Units Each:

-210 INDIANS(Lee) over Royals(Bannister), Day 1 (3-3 W1, -5.14 units YTD)
+144 Phillies(Happ) over METS(Santana), Day 1 (2-3 L2, -3.75 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 4-7 overall for -10.68 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 34-30, -1.06 units, -1.66% ROI, -0.141 z-score, p-value of 55.6%
2-unit plays: 47-51, -16.33 units, -8.33% ROI, -0.859 z-score, p-value of 80.5%
3-unit plays: 26-13, +32.81 units, +28.04% ROI, 1.813 z-score, p-value of 3.5%
4-unit plays: 20-12, +5.82 units, +4.55% ROI, 0.297 z-score, p-value of 38.3%

Overall: 127-106, +21.24 units, +4.21% ROI, 0.631 z-score, p-value of 26.4%

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/10/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-105 Mariners(Hernandez) over ORIOLES(Guthrie), Day 2 (3-2 W3, +0.64 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-230 BRAVES(Jurrjens) over Pirates(Karstens), Day 3 (10-9 W3, -2.09 units YTD)
-120 Reds(Harang) over NATIONALS(Martis), Day 2 (7-10 W1, -6.22 units YTD)
-105 DEVIL RAYS(Niemann) over Angels(Lackey), Day 2 (6-4 L1, +3.49 units YTD)
-120 RED SOX(Wakefield) over Yankees(Wang), Day 2 (6-4 L1, +3.49 units YTD)
-135 Tigers(Verlander) over WHITE SOX(Danks), Day 3 (5-3 L1, +4.41 units YTD)
-128 ATHLETICS(Braden) over Twins(Liriano), Day 3 (10-9 W3, -2.09 units YTD)
-210 DODGERS(Kershaw) over Padres(LeBlanc), Day 2 (6-4 L1, +3.49 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-155 Phillies(Hamels) over METS(Pelfrey), Day 2 (5-2 W5, +9.54 units YTD)
-111 Cubs(Zambrano) over ASTROS(Rodriguez), Day 2 (5-2 W5, +9.54 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-150 INDIANS(Pavano) over Royals(Meche), Day 2 (4-1 W1, +7.19 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 6-5 overall for -3.39 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 35-30, -0.11 units, -0.17% ROI, -0.014 z-score, p-value of 50.6%
2-unit plays: 51-54, -15.62 units, -7.44% ROI, -0.799 z-score, p-value of 78.8%
3-unit plays: 27-14, +31.74 units, +25.81% ROI, 1.718 z-score, p-value of 4.3%
4-unit plays: 20-13, +1.82 units, +1.38% ROI, 0.092 z-score, p-value of 46.4%

Overall: 133-111, +17.84 units, +3.37% ROI, 0.520 z-score, p-value of 30.1%

[Panekkkk]

Hey billdo,

System seems to be turning the tide any ideas why?

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/11/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+132 ASTROS(Ortiz) over Cubs(Dempster), Day 3 (3-3 L1, +0.65 units YTD)
+145 Mariners(Olson) over ORIOLES(Uehara), Day 3 (4-4 L1, -0.38 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-116 Cardinals(Wellemeyer) over MARLINS(Miller), Day 3 (6-3 W1, +5.89 units YTD)
-110 Tigers(Jackson) over WHITE SOX(Floyd), Day 4 (2-1 L1, +1.37 units YTD)
-105 ATHLETICS(Cahill) over Twins(Blackburn), Day 4 (2-2 L1, -1.57 units YTD)
+150 Giants(Sanchez) over DIAMONDBACKS(Scherzer), Day 3 (6-3 W1, +5.89 units YTD)
+122 Reds(Owings) over NATIONALS(Lannan), Day 3 (6-3 W1, +5.89 units YTD)
+134 RED SOX(Penny) over Yankees(Sabathia), Day 3 (10-11 L2, -6.09 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-173 BRAVES(Vazquez) over Pirates(Maholm), Day 4 (2-3 L1, -4.22 units YTD)
+122 INDIANS(Sowers) over Royals(Greinke), Day 3 (3-0 W3, +8.85 units YTD)
-142 DEVIL RAYS(Price) over Angels(Santana), Day 3 (3-0 W3, +8.85 units YTD)
-105 Phillies(Moyer) over METS(Redding), Day 3 (2-1 W1, +4.14 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

No plays today

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Hey billdo,

System seems to be turning the tide any ideas why?

Sure...I started putting money into it

Because I was up a nice amount at the time, I decided to start wagering the games starting on 5/29. Up to that point, it was at 85-53 overall for +69.88 units. I played it up through 6/8 before I decided to back off. Over that stretch, it went 38-46 for -37.96 units. Perhaps it's a sign from God I shouldn't be betting...

Seriously, though. I have all the games from 2008 in a database. From the W/L records, it appeared to be somewhat cyclical last year as well and kind of ebbed and flowed its way through the season. Once I get the lines in there, I can provide some numbers...

[billdo75]

Picks went 8-4 overall for +8.71 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 37-30, +2.66 units, +3.97% ROI, 0.343 z-score, p-value of 36.6%
2-unit plays: 54-57, -15.31 units, -6.89% ROI, -0.757 z-score, p-value of 77.5%
3-unit plays: 30-15, +37.37 units, +27.68% ROI, 1.937 z-score, p-value of 2.6%
4-unit plays: 20-13, +1.82 units, +1.38% ROI, 0.092 z-score, p-value of 46.4%

Overall: 141-115, +26.55 units, +4.78% ROI, 0.755 z-score, p-value of 22.5%

[Panekkkk]

Sure...I started putting money into it

Because I was up a nice amount at the time, I decided to start wagering the games starting on 5/29. Up to that point, it was at 85-53 overall for +69.88 units. I played it up through 6/8 before I decided to back off. Over that stretch, it went 38-46 for -37.96 units. Perhaps it's a sign from God I shouldn't be betting...

Seriously, though. I have all the games from 2008 in a database. From the W/L records, it appeared to be somewhat cyclical last year as well and kind of ebbed and flowed its way through the season. Once I get the lines in there, I can provide some numbers...

Wow that's some tough luck. Yah it went up way too large to start the season, it needed some correction!!! Hopefully you can track it some more and predict the swing

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/12/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-134 CUBS(Wells) over Twins(Slowey), Day 1 (6-6 L2, -1.00 units YTD)
-110 Dodgers(Kuroda) over RANGERS(Padilla), Day 1 (5-6 W2, -1.38 units YTD)
+123 White Sox(Richard) over BREWERS(Suppan), Day 1 (5-6 W2, -1.38 units YTD)
+100 Reds(Maloney) over ROYALS(Hochevar), Day 1 (5-6 W2, -1.38 units YTD)
-152 ANGELS(Palmer) over Padres(Gaudin), Day 1 (6-6 L2, -1.00 units YTD)
-155 GIANTS(Lincecum) over Athletics(Mazzaro), Day 1 (6-6 L2, -1.00 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-240 YANKEES(Chamberlain) over Mets(Hernandez), Day 1 (7-12 L6, -13.18 units YTD)
-230 BLUE JAYS(Halladay) over Marlins(Nolasco), Day 1 (7-12 L6, -13.18 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 4 Units Each:

-126 Red Sox(Lester) over PHILLIES(Blanton), Day 1 (2-4 L3, -7.75 units YTD)
-250 DEVIL RAYS(Garza) over Nationals(Stammen), Day 1 (4-3 W2, -3.23 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Wow that's some tough luck. Yah it went up way too large to start the season, it needed some correction!!! Hopefully you can track it some more and predict the swing

Well, it did have it's first big winning day since 5/27. After doing some quick analysis (I love crunching numbers and finding patterns), here's something interesting I found:

May 15th - May 27th, +69.11 units, +23.51% ROI, 9 + days, 3 - days
May 28th - Jun 9th, -47.87 units, -22.69% ROI, 3 + days, 8 - days

Nearly mirror records over those two different 13-day stretches. It'll be interesting to watch this stretch (Jun 10th - Jun 22rd) to see if it follows suit...

[billdo75]

Picks went 5-5 overall for +0.91 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 39-34, -0.03 units, -0.05% ROI, -0.004 z-score, p-value of 50.2%
2-unit plays: 55-58, -16.47 units, -7.29% ROI, -0.811 z-score, p-value of 79.1%
3-unit plays: 30-15, +37.37 units, +27.68% ROI, 1.937 z-score, p-value of 2.6%
4-unit plays: 22-13, +6.60 units, +4.71% ROI, 0.324 z-score, p-value of 37.3%

Overall: 146-120, +27.46 units, +4.78% ROI, 0.772 z-score, p-value of 22.0%

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/13/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-165 CUBS(Harden) over Twins(Swarzak), Day 2 (12-8 W1, +0.24 units YTD)
+127 Marlins(West) over BLUE JAYS(Janssen), Day 2 (4-2 W4, +1.59 units YTD)
-177 ROCKIES(Marquis) over Mariners(Morrow), Day 2 (12-8 W1, +0.24 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+106 Tigers(Galarraga) over PIRATES(Duke), Day 2 (8-10 W2, -4.55 units YTD)
+104 Reds(Arroyo) over ROYALS(Davies), Day 2 (8-10 W2, -4.55 units YTD)
-115 Astros(Oswalt) over DIAMONDBACKS(Garland), Day 2 (8-10 W2, -4.55 units YTD)
-210 ANGELS(Saunders) over Padres(Geer), Day 2 (8-5 L1, +5.06 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-129 BREWERS(Parra) over White Sox(Contreras), Day 2 (8-2 L2, +13.38 units YTD)
-210 YANKEES(Pettitte) over Mets(Nieve), Day 2 (8-2 L2, +13.38 units YTD)
-158 DEVIL RAYS(Sonnanstine) over Nationals(Zimmermann), Day 2 (8-2 L2, +13.38 units YTD)
+109 Red Sox(Matsuzaka) over PHILLIES(Bastardo), Day 2 (6-3 L1, +8.47 units YTD)
-111 GIANTS(Johnson) over Athletics(Outman), Day 2 (8-2 L2, +13.38 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-103 Braves(Kawakami) over ORIOLES(Hill), Day 2 (0-3 L3, -12.00 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[MadRussian]

Whick book offers -1 RL???

[billdo75]

Picks went 7-6 overall for -1.97 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 41-35, +0.80 units, +1.05% ROI, 0.097 z-score, p-value of 46.1%
2-unit plays: 57-60, -17.78 units, -7.60% ROI, -0.861 z-score, p-value of 80.5%
3-unit plays: 33-17, +39.87 units, +26.58% ROI, 1.971 z-score, p-value of 2.4%
4-unit plays: 22-14, +2.60 units, +1.80% ROI, 0.125 z-score, p-value of 45.0%

Overall: 153-126, +25.49 units, +4.22% ROI, 0.698 z-score, p-value of 24.3%

[billdo75]

Whick book offers -1 RL???

I think I've read that Pinnacle does. If you're responding to any of my posts about the -1 RL, it's a faux -1 RL by hedging the run line play with a money line play. Enough is wagered on the money line to cover a loss on the run line, effectively making a 1-run win a push. If the team you picked loses, though, you're out considerable more than just betting the -1½ line itself.

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/14/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

+104 Mets(Santana) over YANKEES(Burnett), Day 3 (4-3 W1, +2.10 units YTD)
+121 White Sox(Buehrle) over BREWERS(Looper), Day 3 (4-3 W1, +2.10 units YTD)
+111 ROYALS(Bannister) over Reds(Cueto), Day 3 (5-4 W1, +0.94 units YTD)
+118 Twins(Baker) over CUBS(Lilly), Day 3 (4-3 W1, +2.10 units YTD)
+125 RANGERS(Holland) over Dodgers(Billingsley), Day 3 (5-4 W1, +0.94 units YTD)
-105 Cardinals(Carpenter) over INDIANS(Lee), Day 3 (4-3 W1, +2.10 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+108 Marlins(Johnson) over BLUE JAYS(Tallet), Day 3 (7-5 L2, +3.62 units YTD)
-124 PIRATES(Ohlendorf) over Tigers(Willis), Day 3 (11-11 W1, -3.41 units YTD)
+105 ORIOLES(Bergesent) over Braves(Lowe), Day 3 (11-11 W1, -3.41 units YTD)
+128 Astros(Moehler) over DIAMONDBACKS(Buckner), Day 3 (7-5 L2, +3.62 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 4 Units Each:

-128 Red Sox(Beckett) over PHILLIES(Happ), Day 3 (3-0 W3, +11.51 units YTD)
-260 DEVIL RAYS(Shields) over Nationals(Detwiler), Day 3 (6-1 W4, +8.20 units YTD)
-127 ROCKIES(Hammel) over Mariners(Vargas), Day 3 (6-1 W4, +8.20 units YTD)
-190 ANGELS(Weaver) over Padres(Young), Day 3 (6-1 W4, +8.20 units YTD)
-136 GIANTS(Cain) over Athletics(Anderson), Day 3 (6-1 W4, +8.20 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 10-5 overall for +12.49 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 43-39, -0.88 units, -1.07% ROI, -0.102 z-score, p-value of 54.1%
2-unit plays: 61-60, -9.35 units, -3.86% ROI, -0.444 z-score, p-value of 67.2%
3-unit plays: 33-17, +39.87 units, +26.58% ROI, 1.971 z-score, p-value of 2.4%
4-unit plays: 26-15, +8.33 units, +5.08% ROI, 0.379 z-score, p-value of 35.2%

Overall: 163-131, +37.98 units, +5.95% ROI, 1.012 z-score, p-value of 15.6%

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/15/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

No plays today

Risk 2 Units Each:

+108 GIANTS(Zito) over Angels(Lackey), Day 1 (8-13 L1, -14.34 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 4 Units Each:

No plays today

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 0-1 overall for -2.00 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 43-39, -0.88 units, -1.07% ROI, -0.102 z-score, p-value of 54.1%
2-unit plays: 61-61, -11.35 units, -4.65% ROI, -0.536 z-score, p-value of 70.4%
3-unit plays: 33-17, +39.87 units, +26.58% ROI, 1.971 z-score, p-value of 2.4%
4-unit plays: 26-15, +8.33 units, +5.08% ROI, 0.379 z-score, p-value of 35.2%

Overall: 163-132, +35.98 units, +5.62% ROI, 0.957 z-score, p-value of 16.9%

Since it's the 16th of the month, I've updated my signature to show the June record so far and here are some more YTD records:

Series Day 1 plays: 43-51, -26.04 units, -13.09% ROI
Series Day 2 plays: 57-41, +13.40 units, +6.35% ROI
Series Day 3 plays: 54-30, +57.06 units, +30.85% ROI
Series Day 4 plays: 9-10, -8.45 units, -18.77% ROI

+21.06 units - Nationals (0-1 ON, 16-4 AGAINST)
+20.47 units - Devil Rays (15-6 ON, 3-1 AGAINST)
+13.88 units - Royals (2-2 ON, 11-4 AGAINST)
+12.64 units - Blue Jays (6-4 ON, 8-1 AGAINST)
+10.91 units - Phillies (9-3 ON, 4-3 AGAINST)
+ 8.65 units - Athletics (3-3 ON, 10-8 AGAINST)
+ 8.45 units - Orioles (8-3 ON, 7-4 AGAINST)
+ 8.39 units - Mets (6-2 ON, 8-4 AGAINST)
+ 6.63 units - Dodgers (10-7 ON, 0-3 AGAINST)
+ 6.38 units - Astros (4-3 ON, 9-6 AGAINST)
+ 4.59 units - Brewers (6-5 ON, 4-4 AGAINST)
+ 4.22 units - Yankees (13-3 ON, 2-4 AGAINST)
+ 4.03 units - Diamondbacks (4-3 ON, 6-6 AGAINST)
+ 3.95 units - Angels (6-4 ON, 4-4 AGAINST)
+ 3.72 units - Indians (4-2 ON, 8-8 AGAINST)
+ 3.44 units - Padres (6-5 ON, 5-4 AGAINST)
+ 3.41 units - Tigers (6-4 ON, 4-2 AGAINST)
+ 2.49 units - Mariners(5-6 ON, 5-3 AGAINST)
- 0.08 units - Giants (4-5 ON, 4-4 AGAINST)
- 0.12 units - Cardinals (4-6 ON, 3-2 AGAINST)
- 0.99 units - Rangers (5-5 ON, 5-3 AGAINST)
- 2.61 units - Marlins (4-4 ON, 7-8 AGAINST)
- 3.02 units - Pirates (6-5 ON, 3-5 AGAINST)
- 5.56 units - Rockies (4-3 ON, 4-8 AGAINST)
- 8.00 units - Cubs (1-6 ON, 6-7 AGAINST)
- 9.36 units - Red Sox (6-4 ON, 1-5 AGAINST)
- 9.67 units - White Sox (4-6 ON, 4-6 AGAINST)
-10.41 units - Twins (2-6 ON, 5-6 AGAINST)
-11.62 units - Braves (5-8 ON, 3-0 AGAINST)
-13.90 units - Reds (5-8 ON, 4-5 AGAINST)

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/16/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-127 Braves(Jurrjens) over REDS(Harang), Day 1 (5-9 L3, -4.38 units YTD)
-160 CUBS(Zambrano) over White Sox(Danks), Day 1 (8-7 W2, -0.70 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-136 Brewers(Gallardo) over INDIANS(Sowers), Day 2 (9-12 W1, -6.81 units YTD)
-114 Tigers(Verlander) over CARDINALS(Wainwright), Day 1 (8-10 L1, -2.55 units YTD)
-121 ROCKIES(De La Rosa) over Devil Rays(Niemann), Day 1 (8-14 L2, -16.34 units YTD)
-135 Mariners(Hernandez) over PADRES(Correia), Day 1 (8-10 L1, -2.55 units YTD)
-142 DODGERS(Kershaw) over Athletics(Braden), Day 1 (8-14 L2, -16.34 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

No plays today

Risk 4 Units Each:

-360 YANKEES(Sabathia) over Nationals(Martis), Day 1 (5-3 W3, -1.63 units YTD)
-190 PHILLIES(Hamels) over Blue Jays(Romero), Day 1 (5-3 W3, -1.63 units YTD)
-140 ROYALS(Meche) over Diamondbacks(Davis), Day 1 (5-3 W3, -1.63 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

For all interested parties, I managed to get the 2008 results done. I'm using the historical lines from Covers.com for the game lines. Some familiar patterns...

1-Unit plays: 225-208, +2.32 units, +0.54% ROI, 0.112 z-score, p-value of 45.5%
2-Unit plays: 285-246, -23.99 units, -2.26% ROI, -0.556 z-score, p-value of 71.1%
3-Unit plays: 165-127, +4.21 units, +0.48% ROI, 0.091 z-score, p-value of 46.4%
4-Unit plays: 149-96, +55.96 units, +5.71% ROI, 1.019 z-score, p-value of 15.4%

Series Day 1 plays: 243-221, -49.39 units, -4.94% ROI, -1.076 z-score, p-value of 85.9%
Series Day 2 plays: 263-215, +24.16 units, +2.21% ROI, 0.484 z-score, p-value of 31.4%
Series Day 3 plays: 271-203, +62.13 units, +5.89% ROI, 1.283 z-score, p-value of 10.0%
Series Day 4 plays: 47-38, +1.60 units, +0.78% ROI, 0.073 z-score, p-value of 47.1%

May: 94-87, -0.16 units, -0.04% ROI, -0.005 z-score, p-value of 50.2%
Jun: 182-151, +25.19 units, +3.35% ROI, 0.611 z-score, p-value of 27.1%
Jul: 167-152, -31.71 units, -4.70% ROI, -0.836 z-score, p-value of 79.8%
Aug: 222-156, +37.09 units, +4.06% ROI, 0.831 z-score, p-value of 20.3%
Sep: 159-131, +8.10 units, +1.30% ROI, 0.214 z-score, p-value of 41.5%

Overall: 824-677, +38.50 units, +1.15% ROI, 0.447 z-score, p-value of 32.8%

[billdo75]

Picks went 5-4 overall for -0.67 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 43-40, -1.88 units, -2.26% ROI, -0.217 z-score, p-value of 58.6%
2-unit plays: 64-63, -10.99 units, -4.33% ROI, -0.519 z-score, p-value of 69.8%
3-unit plays: 33-17, +39.87 units, +26.58% ROI, 1.971 z-score, p-value of 2.4%
4-unit plays: 28-16, +8.30 units, +4.72% ROI, 0.376 z-score, p-value of 35.3%

Overall: 168-136, +35.31 units, +5.33% ROI, 0.938 z-score, p-value of 17.4%

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/17/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-160 ORIOLES(Uehara) over Mets(Redding), Day 2 (13-9 W1, -0.20 units YTD)
+122 Blue Jays(Richmond) over PHILLIES(Moyer), Day 2 (5-2 W5, +2.86 units YTD)
+140 REDS(Owings) over Braves(Vazquez), Day 2 (13-9 W1, -0.20 units YTD)
+133 Astros(Ortiz) over RANGERS(Harrison), Day 2 (5-2 W5, +2.86 units YTD)
-200 TWINS(Liriano) over Pirates(Snell), Day 2 (13-9 W1, -0.20 units YTD)
+108 Mariners(Olson) over PADRES(Gaudin), Day 2 (5-2 W5, +2.86 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-170 RED SOX(Penny) over Marlins(Miller), Day 2 (9-5 W1, +6.01 units YTD)
-117 ROCKIES(Cook) over Devil Rays(Price), Day 2 (9-5 W1, +6.01 units YTD)
-160 DODGERS(Kuroda) over Athletics(Cahill), Day 2 (9-5 W1, +6.01 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-220 YANKEES(Wang) over Nationals(Lannan), Day 2 (10-4 W2, +12.60 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-163 ROYALS(Greinke) over Diamondbacks(Scherzer), Day 2 (4-2 L1, +3.19 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[Panekkkk]

For all interested parties, I managed to get the 2008 results done. I'm using the historical lines from Covers.com for the game lines. Some familiar patterns...

1-Unit plays: 225-208, +2.32 units, +0.54% ROI, 0.112 z-score, p-value of 45.5%
2-Unit plays: 285-246, -23.99 units, -2.26% ROI, -0.556 z-score, p-value of 71.1%
3-Unit plays: 165-127, +4.21 units, +0.48% ROI, 0.091 z-score, p-value of 46.4%
4-Unit plays: 149-96, +55.96 units, +5.71% ROI, 1.019 z-score, p-value of 15.4%

Series Day 1 plays: 243-221, -49.39 units, -4.94% ROI, -1.076 z-score, p-value of 85.9%
Series Day 2 plays: 263-215, +24.16 units, +2.21% ROI, 0.484 z-score, p-value of 31.4%
Series Day 3 plays: 271-203, +62.13 units, +5.89% ROI, 1.283 z-score, p-value of 10.0%
Series Day 4 plays: 47-38, +1.60 units, +0.78% ROI, 0.073 z-score, p-value of 47.1%

May: 94-87, -0.16 units, -0.04% ROI, -0.005 z-score, p-value of 50.2%
Jun: 182-151, +25.19 units, +3.35% ROI, 0.611 z-score, p-value of 27.1%
Jul: 167-152, -31.71 units, -4.70% ROI, -0.836 z-score, p-value of 79.8%
Aug: 222-156, +37.09 units, +4.06% ROI, 0.831 z-score, p-value of 20.3%
Sep: 159-131, +8.10 units, +1.30% ROI, 0.214 z-score, p-value of 41.5%

Overall: 824-677, +38.50 units, +1.15% ROI, 0.447 z-score, p-value of 32.8%

Great stuff billdo! I'd love to tail the Day 3, Unit 3/4 plays but right now Day 3 plays are already +57. Last year they went +61 or so overall which doesn't leave much room for improvement!

[billdo75]

Picks went 6-5 overall for -3.79 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 47-42, +0.45 units, +0.50% ROI, 0.052 z-score, p-value of 47.9%
2-unit plays: 66-64, -10.10 units, -3.89% ROI, -0.478 z-score, p-value of 68.4%
3-unit plays: 33-18, +36.87 units, +24.10% ROI, 1.823 z-score, p-value of 3.4%
4-unit plays: 28-17, +4.30 units, +2.39% ROI, 0.195 z-score, p-value of 42.3%

Overall: 174-141, +31.52 units, +4.62% ROI, 0.837 z-score, p-value of 20.1%

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/18/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-158 TWINS(Blackburn) over Pirates(Duke), Day 3 (6-5 L1, +1.05 units YTD)
+137 White Sox(Floyd) over CUBS(Zambrano), Day 2 (7-3 W1, +4.16 units YTD)
+100 Mariners(Morrow) over PADRES(Geer), Day 3 (5-6 L2, +0.31 units YTD)
-118 ORIOLES(Berken) over Mets(Hernandez), Day 3 (6-5 L1, +1.05 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

-102 ROCKIES(Jimenez) over Devil Rays(Garza), Day 3 (13-11 W3, +0.31 units YTD)
-162 RANGERS(Padilla) over Astros(Backe), Day 3 (13-11 W3, +0.31 units YTD)
-122 CARDINALS(Pineiro) over Tigers(Porcello), Day 3 (13-11 W3, +0.31 units YTD)
-143 DODGERS(Wolf) over Athletics(Mazzaro), Day 3 (13-11 W3, +0.31 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

+109 REDS(Maloney) over Braves(Hanson), Day 3 (5-0 W5, +14.62 units YTD)
+152 Blue Jays(Mills) over PHILLIES(Blanton), Day 3 (3-1 W2, +7.00 units YTD)
-230 RED SOX(Lester) over Marlins(Nolasco), Day 3 (5-0 W5, +14.62 units YTD)
+132 ROYALS(Hochevar) over Diamondbacks(Haren), Day 3 (5-0 W5, +14.62 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-330 YANKEES(Chamberlain) over Nationals(Stammen), Day 3 (10-1 W8, +17.94 units YTD)

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 5-8 overall for -9.60 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 49-44, -0.07 units, -0.08% ROI, -0.009 z-score, p-value of 50.3%
2-unit plays: 68-66, -10.74 units, -4.01% ROI, -0.508 z-score, p-value of 69.4%
3-unit plays: 34-21, +32.43 units, +19.66% ROI, 1.603 z-score, p-value of 5.4%
4-unit plays: 28-18, +0.30 units, +0.16% ROI, 0.014 z-score, p-value of 49.5%

Overall: 179-149, +21.92 units, +3.09% ROI, 0.582 z-score, p-value of 28.0%

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/19/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-103 Indians(Lee) over CUBS(Harden), Day 1 (5-10 L4, -5.38 units YTD)
+101 Brewers(Looper) over TIGERS(Galarraga), Day 1 (5-10 L4, -5.38 units YTD)
-106 Devil Rays(Sonnanstine) over METS(Nieve), Day 1 (5-10 L4, -5.38 units YTD)
-105 White Sox(Contreras) over REDS(Arroyo), Day 1 (5-10 L4, -5.38 units YTD)
-150 TWINS(Slowey) over Astros(Oswalt), Day 1 (8-7 W2, -0.70 units YTD)
-105 Cardinals(Thompson) over ROYALS(Davies), Day 1 (5-10 L4, -5.38 units YTD)
-103 GIANTS(Johnson) over Rangers(Feldman), Day 1 (8-7 W2, -0.70 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+137 Orioles(Hill) over PHILLIES(Bastardo), Day 1 (9-11 W1, -3.07 units YTD)
-150 RED SOX(Matsuzaka) over Braves(Kawakami), Day 1 (9-15 W1, -16.93 units YTD)
-160 ROCKIES(Marquis) over Pirates(Ohlendorf), Day 1 (9-15 W1, -16.93 units YTD)
-127 MARINERS(Washburn) over Diamondbacks(Garland), Day 1 (9-15 W1, -16.93 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-101 Blue Jays(Tallet) over NATIONALS(Zimmermann), Day 1 (1-1 L1, +0.96 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

No plays today

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

Picks went 6-6 overall for -0.85 units. Updated records:

1-unit plays: 52-48, -1.48 units, -1.48% ROI, -0.172 z-score, p-value of 56.8%
2-unit plays: 71-67, -7.18 units, -2.60% ROI, -0.339 z-score, p-value of 63.3%
3-unit plays: 34-22, +29.43 units, +17.52% ROI, 1.455 z-score, p-value of 7.3%
4-unit plays: 28-18, +0.30 units, +0.16% ROI, 0.014 z-score, p-value of 49.5%

Overall: 185-155, +21.07 units, +2.89% ROI, 0.560 z-score, p-value of 28.8%

[billdo75]

Picks for 6/20/2009:

Risk 1 Unit Each:

-174 CUBS(Lilly) over Indians(Ohka), Day 2 (15-10 L1, +0.83 units YTD)
-101 TIGERS(Figaro) over Brewers(Bush), Day 2 (15-10 L1, +0.83 units YTD)
-155 REDS(Cueto) over White Sox(Richard), Day 2 (15-10 L1, +0.83 units YTD)
-143 GIANTS(Cain) over Rangers(Holland), Day 2 (15-10 L1, +0.83 units YTD)

Risk 2 Units Each:

+133 Orioles(Bergesen) over PHILLIES(Happ), Day 2 (10-12 W2, -5.34 units YTD)
-171 RED SOX(Beckett) over Braves(Lowe), Day 2 (11-6 L1, +6.90 units YTD)

Risk 3 Units Each:

-117 Blue Jays(Cecil) over NATIONALS(Detwiler), Day 2 (7-3 W1, +11.74 units YTD)
-167 ROCKIES(Hammel) over Pirates(Morton), Day 2 (10-5 L1, +9.60 units YTD)
-173 ANGELS(Weaver) over Dodgers(Weaver), Day 2 (10-5 L1, +9.60 units YTD)

Risk 4 Units Each:

-162 Cardinals(Carpenter) over ROYALS(Bannister), Day 2 (0-4 L4, -16.00 units YTD)
-200 TWINS(Baker) over Astros(Moehler), Day 2 (4-3 L2, -0.81 units YTD)

GL, everybody!