Billdo's Just 4 Fun Picks

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  • billdo75
    SBR Sharp
    • 05-11-09
    • 418
    #71
    Picks went 6-5 overall for -5.30 units. Updated records:

    1-unit plays: 55-49, -0.22 units, -0.21% ROI, -0.025 z-score, p-value of 51.0%
    2-unit plays: 72-68, -8.01 units, -2.86% ROI, -0.379 z-score, p-value of 64.8%
    3-unit plays: 35-24, +25.23 units, +14.25% ROI, 1.247 z-score, p-value of 10.6%
    4-unit plays: 29-19, -1.23 units, -0.64% ROI, -0.056 z-score, p-value of 52.2%

    Overall: 191-160, +15.77 units, +2.09% ROI, 0.419 z-score, p-value of 33.8%
      Comment
      • billdo75
        SBR Sharp
        • 05-11-09
        • 418
        #72


        Picks for 6/21/2009:

        Risk 1 Unit Each:
        +135 Dodgers(Kershaw) over ANGELS(Lackey), Day 3 (5-7 L3, -0.69 units YTD)
        Risk 2 Units Each:
        +112 White Sox(Buehrle) over REDS(Harang), Day 3 (9-5 W2, +8.34 units YTD)
        -131 Blue Jays(Romero) over NATIONALS(Martis), Day 3 (9-5 W2, +8.34 units YTD)
        -126 RED SOX(Wakefield) over Braves(Jurrjens), Day 3 (15-13 W1, -0.33 units YTD)
        +101 Cardinals(Wainwright) over ROYALS(Meche), Day 3 (9-5 W2, +8.34 units YTD)
        -119 TWINS(Perkins) over Astros(Rodriguez), Day 3 (15-13 W1, -0.33 units YTD)
        -158 CUBS(Wells) over Indians(Sowers), Day 3 (15-13 W1, -0.33 units YTD)
        -137 ROCKIES(De La Rosa) over Pirates(Maholm), Day 3 (15-13 W1, -0.33 units YTD)
        +124 GIANTS(Zito) over Rangers(Millwood), Day 3 (15-13 W1, -0.33 units YTD)
        -165 MARINERS(Hernandez) over Diamondbacks(Davis), Day 3 (15-13 W1, -0.33 units YTD)
        -170 Yankees(Sabathia) over MARLINS(Volstad), Day 3 (9-5 W2, +8.34 units YTD)
        Risk 3 Units Each:
        No plays today
        Risk 4 Units Each:
        -122 TIGERS(Verlander) over Brewers(Gallardo), Day 3 (10-2 L1, +13.94 units YTD)
        GL, everybody!

          Comment
          • billdo75
            SBR Sharp
            • 05-11-09
            • 418
            #73
            Picks went 10-2 overall for +14.42 units. Updated records:

            1-unit plays: 56-49, +1.13 units, +1.08% ROI, 0.131 z-score, p-value of 44.8%
            2-unit plays: 80-70, +1.78 units, +0.59% ROI, 0.084 z-score, p-value of 46.6%
            3-unit plays: 35-24, +25.23 units, +14.25% ROI, 1.247 z-score, p-value of 10.6%
            4-unit plays: 30-19, +2.05 units, +1.04% ROI, 0.093 z-score, p-value of 46.3%

            Overall: 201-162, +30.19 units, +3.88% ROI, 0.802 z-score, p-value of 21.1%
              Comment
              • billdo75
                SBR Sharp
                • 05-11-09
                • 418
                #74


                Picks for 6/22/2009:

                Risk 1 Unit Each:
                +105 Rockies(Cook) over ANGELS(Palmer), Day 1 (6-14 W1, -8.42 units YTD)
                Risk 2 Units Each:
                -155 ATHLETICS(Cahill) over Giants(Sanchez), Day 1 (11-16 W2, -16.11 units YTD)
                Risk 3 Units Each:
                No plays today
                Risk 4 Units Each:
                No plays today
                GL, everybody!

                  Comment
                  • billdo75
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 05-11-09
                    • 418
                    #75
                    Picks went 2-0 overall for +2.34 units. Updated records:

                    1-unit plays: 57-49, +2.18 units, +2.06% ROI, 0.252 z-score, p-value of 40.0%
                    2-unit plays: 81-70, +3.07 units, +1.02% ROI, 0.145 z-score, p-value of 44.2%
                    3-unit plays: 35-24, +25.23 units, +14.25% ROI, 1.247 z-score, p-value of 10.6%
                    4-unit plays: 30-19, +2.05 units, +1.04% ROI, 0.093 z-score, p-value of 46.3%

                    Overall: 203-162, +32.53 units, +4.17% ROI, 0.864 z-score, p-value of 19.4%
                      Comment
                      • HoulihansTX
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 02-12-09
                        • 30566
                        #76
                        Yeah winning money is always fun. Don't know why more guys aren't tailing you??? I guess b/c you don't do write-ups, but winning is better representation of great perspective.

                        And you keep a running record, I dont get it. Will have to pay attention to you from now on.
                          Comment
                          • billdo75
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 05-11-09
                            • 418
                            #77


                            Picks for 6/23/2009:

                            Risk 1 Unit Each:
                            +102 Yankees(Wang) over BRAVES(Hanson), Day 1 (7-14 W2, -7.37 units YTD)
                            -106 PIRATES(Snell) over Indians(Huff), Day 1 (10-7 W4, +0.94 units YTD)
                            -127 TIGERS(Jackson) over Cubs(Zambrano), Day 1 (10-7 W4, +0.94 units YTD)
                            -131 Red Sox(Penny) over NATIONALS(Lannan), Day 1 (7-14 W2, -7.37 units YTD)
                            -143 BLUE JAYS(Tallet) over Reds(Owings), Day 1 (10-7 W4, +0.94 units YTD)
                            -108 Orioles(Uehara) over MARLINS(Miller), Day 1 (7-14 W2, -7.37 units YTD)
                            +105 Twins(Liriano) over BREWERS(Suppan), Day 1 (7-14 W2, -7.37 units YTD)
                            -108 WHITE SOX(Danks) over Dodgers(Kuroda), Day 1 (10-7 W4, +0.94 units YTD)
                            -123 Rockies(Jimenez) over ANGELS(O'Sullivan), Day 2 (7-4 L1, +3.16 units YTD)
                            Risk 2 Units Each:
                            +104 ATHLETICS(Mazzaro) over Giants(Lincecum), Day 2 (12-6 W1, +8.07 units YTD)
                            Risk 3 Units Each:
                            +123 ASTROS(Ortiz) over Royals(Greinke), Day 1 (5-3 L1, +3.17 units YTD)
                            -133 MARINERS(Olson) over Padres(Gaudin), Day 1 (5-3 L1, +3.17 units YTD)
                            GL, everybody!

                              Comment
                              • billdo75
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 05-11-09
                                • 418
                                #78
                                Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                Yeah winning money is always fun. Don't know why more guys aren't tailing you??? I guess b/c you don't do write-ups, but winning is better representation of great perspective.

                                And you keep a running record, I dont get it. Will have to pay attention to you from now on.
                                I think not having a solid history, combined with a steep dropoff from May, and just the sheer number of games all contribute to some nervousness with this system. Hell, I sunk some money into it during a bad stretch and got burned to the tune of -38 units. I want to get it backtracked for several seasons before I plunge again. There are certain situations that look really good so far this season, but they could just be a regression trap. I have the code written to rip all the game data from retrosheet files, I just need to write the code to rip the lines from Covers. Once I get that done, I should be in pretty good shape to assess it further. Regardless, I'll still post every single system play and the running totals.
                                  Comment
                                  • billdo75
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 05-11-09
                                    • 418
                                    #79
                                    Picks went 4-8 overall for -9.70 units. Updated records:

                                    1-unit plays: 61-54, +0.48 units, +0.42% ROI, 0.056 z-score, p-value of 47.8%
                                    2-unit plays: 81-71, +1.07 units, +0.35% ROI, 0.051 z-score, p-value of 48.0%
                                    3-unit plays: 35-26, +19.23 units, +10.51% ROI, 0.951 z-score, p-value of 17.1%
                                    4-unit plays: 30-19, +2.05 units, +1.04% ROI, 0.093 z-score, p-value of 46.3%

                                    Overall: 207-170, +22.83 units, +2.86% ROI, 0.606 z-score, p-value of 27.2%
                                      Comment
                                      • billdo75
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 05-11-09
                                        • 418
                                        #80


                                        Picks for 6/24/2009:

                                        Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                        -102 Cardinals(Thompson) over METS(Nieve), Day 3 (6-7 W1, +0.66 units YTD)
                                        -170 ASTROS(Oswalt) over Royals(Hochevar), Day 2 (18-11 W1, +2.09 units YTD)
                                        +105 Dodgers(Wolf) over WHITE SOX(Floyd), Day 2 (7-5 L2, +2.16 units YTD)
                                        +100 Giants(Johnson) over ATHLETICS(Gonzalez), Day 3 (6-7 W1, +0.66 units YTD)
                                        Risk 2 Units Each:
                                        -128 PIRATES(Duke) over Indians(Pavano), Day 2 (12-7 L1, +6.07 units YTD)
                                        +153 Phillies(Blanton) over DEVIL RAYS(Garza), Day 2 (10-13 L1, -7.34 units YTD)
                                        -119 Twins(Blackburn) over BREWERS(Looper), Day 2 (10-13 L1, -7.34 units YTD)
                                        -175 DIAMONDBACKS(Haren) over Rangers(Padilla), Day 2 (12-7 L1, +6.07 units YTD)
                                        +120 Rockies(Marquis) over ANGELS(Saunders), Day 3 (12-6 L1, +12.12 units YTD)
                                        Risk 3 Units Each:
                                        +123 BRAVES(Kawakami) over Yankees(Chamberlain), Day 2 (11-6 L1, +8.40 units YTD)
                                        -116 TIGERS(Porcello) over Cubs(Harden), Day 2 (11-6 L1, +8.40 units YTD)
                                        -140 BLUE JAYS(Richmond) over Reds(Arroyo), Day 2 (11-6 L1, +8.40 units YTD)
                                        -140 MARLINS(Nolasco) over Orioles(Berken), Day 2 (11-6 L1, +8.40 units YTD)
                                        -142 MARINERS(Morrow) over Padres(Geer), Day 2 (11-6 L1, +8.40 units YTD)
                                        Risk 4 Units Each:
                                        -173 Red Sox(Lester) over NATIONALS(Stammen), Day 2 (1-4 W1, -13.53 units YTD)
                                        GL, everybody!

                                          Comment
                                          • billdo75
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 05-11-09
                                            • 418
                                            #81
                                            Picks went 7-8 overall for -0.14 units. Updated records:

                                            1-unit plays: 62-57, -1.52 units, -1.28% ROI, -0.176 z-score, p-value of 57.0%
                                            2-unit plays: 82-75, -5.36 units, -1.71% ROI, -0.254 z-score, p-value of 60.0%
                                            3-unit plays: 39-27, +25.21 units, +12.73% ROI, 1.246 z-score, p-value of 10.6%
                                            4-unit plays: 31-19, +4.36 units, +2.18% ROI, 0.198 z-score, p-value of 42.2%

                                            Overall: 214-178, +22.69 units, +2.73% ROI, 0.603 z-score, p-value of 27.3%
                                              Comment
                                              • billdo75
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 05-11-09
                                                • 418
                                                #82


                                                Picks for 6/25/2009:

                                                Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                +104 Royals(Bannister) over ASTROS(Moehler), Day 3 (7-8 W1, +0.66 units YTD)
                                                -130 Twins(Baker) over BREWERS(Burns), Day 3 (7-8 W1, +0.66 units YTD)
                                                -177 MARINERS(Washburn) over Padres(LeBlanc), Day 3 (8-5 W2, +2.53 units YTD)
                                                -109 Rangers(Feldman) over DIAMONDBACKS(Garland), Day 3 (7-8 W1, +0.66 units YTD)
                                                Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                +102 TIGERS(Galarraga) over Cubs(Lilly), Day 3 (20-14 W4, +5.67 units YTD)
                                                +145 PIRATES(Ohlendorf) over Indians(Lee), Day 3 (20-14 W4, +5.67 units YTD)
                                                -137 DEVIL RAYS(Sonnanstine) over Phillies(Bastardo), Day 3 (20-14 W4, +5.67 units YTD)
                                                Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                +102 Yankees(Pettitte) over BRAVES(Lowe), Day 3 (4-1 W3, +11.56 units YTD)
                                                -121 Red Sox(Smoltz) over NATIONALS(Zimmermann), Day 3 (4-1 W3, +11.56 units YTD)
                                                -126 BLUE JAYS(Cecil) over Reds(Cueto), Day 3 (5-3 L3, +5.62 units YTD)
                                                -111 MARLINS(West) over Orioles(Hill), Day 3 (5-3 L3, +5.62 units YTD)
                                                Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                -150 Dodgers(Billingsley) over WHITE SOX(Richard), Day 3 (3-1 L1, +7.51 units YTD)
                                                GL, everybody!

                                                  Comment
                                                  • billdo75
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 05-11-09
                                                    • 418
                                                    #83
                                                    Picks went 8-4 overall for +3.41 units. Updated records:

                                                    1-unit plays: 65-58, -0.27 units, -0.22% ROI, -0.031 z-score, p-value of 51.2%
                                                    2-unit plays: 85-75, +1.04 units, +0.32% ROI, 0.049 z-score, p-value of 48.0%
                                                    3-unit plays: 41-29, +24.98 units, +11.89% ROI, 1.235 z-score, p-value of 10.8%
                                                    4-unit plays: 31-20, +0.36 units, +0.18% ROI, 0.016 z-score, p-value of 49.3%

                                                    Overall: 222-182, +26.10 units, +3.05% ROI, 0.693 z-score, p-value of 24.4%
                                                      Comment
                                                      • billdo75
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 05-11-09
                                                        • 418
                                                        #84


                                                        Picks for 6/26/2009:

                                                        Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                        -170 Yankees(Sabathia) over METS(Pelfrey), Day 1 (9-16 W1, -7.56 units YTD)
                                                        +142 Giants(Cain) over BREWERS(Gallardo), Day 1 (9-16 W1, -7.56 units YTD)
                                                        -225 RANGERS(Millwood) over Padres(Silva), Day 1 (12-9 L1, +0.43 units YTD)
                                                        -152 CARDINALS(Wainwright) over Twins(Perkins), Day 1 (12-9 L1, +0.43 units YTD)
                                                        +127 Rockies(Hammel) over ATHLETICS(Braden), Day 1 (1-2 L2, -2.04 units YTD)
                                                        Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                        -160 ORIOLES(Bergesen) over Nationals(Detwiler), Day 1 (12-16 W3, -14.82 units YTD)
                                                        +114 PIRATES(Vasquez) over Royals(Meche), Day 1 (12-16 W3, -14.82 units YTD)
                                                        +107 BLUE JAYS(Romero) over Phillies(Hamels), Day 1 (12-16 W3, -14.82 units YTD)
                                                        +134 Marlins(Johnson) over DEVIL RAYS(Shields), Day 1 (10-11 W2, -0.33 units YTD)
                                                        -138 Angels(Weaver) over DIAMONDBACKS(Buckner), Day 1 (10-11 W2, -0.33 units YTD)
                                                        +153 Mariners(Vargas) over DODGERS(Kershaw), Day 1 (10-11 W2, -0.33 units YTD)
                                                        Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                        No plays today
                                                        Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                        -103 WHITE SOX(Contreras) over Cubs(Wells), Day 1 (7-4 W1, -1.66 units YTD)
                                                        +100 Reds(Harang) over INDIANS(Sowers), Day 1 (3-4 W1, -4.57 units YTD)
                                                        -118 Tigers(Verlander) over ASTROS(Rodriguez), Day 1 (3-4 W1, -4.57 units YTD)
                                                        -116 Red Sox(Beckett) over BRAVES(Jurrjens), Day 1 (3-4 W1, -4.57 units YTD)
                                                        GL, everybody!

                                                          Comment
                                                          • billdo75
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 05-11-09
                                                            • 418
                                                            #85
                                                            I was having problems getting my posts in this morning (turns out all I had to do was log out and log back in...) and I was gone all day. Father-in-law ended up at the hospital with heart failure Anyways, on with the results and the plays from earlier today...

                                                            Picks went 8-7 overall for -5.13 units. Updated records:

                                                            1-unit plays: 68-60, +0.03 units, +0.03% ROI, 0.004 z-score, p-value of 49.8%
                                                            2-unit plays: 89-77, +4.16 units, +1.25% ROI, 0.196 z-score, p-value of 42.2%
                                                            3-unit plays: 41-29, +24.98 units, +11.89% ROI, 1.235 z-score, p-value of 10.8%
                                                            4-unit plays: 32-23, -8.19 units, -3.72% ROI, -0.371 z-score, p-value of 64.5%

                                                            Overall: 230-189, +20.97 units, +2.36% ROI, 0.557 z-score, p-value of 28.9%



                                                            Picks for 6/27/2009:

                                                            Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                            +116 BLUE JAYS(Mills) over Phillies(Happ), Day 2 (18-12 L1, +1.09 units YTD)
                                                            +121 Reds(Bailey) over INDIANS(Ohka), Day 2 (7-6 L3, +1.16 units YTD)
                                                            -105 Tigers(Figaro) over ASTROS(Paulino), Day 2 (7-6 L3, +1.16 units YTD)
                                                            +118 DODGERS(Milton) over Mariners(Hernandez), Day 2 (18-12 L1, +1.09 units YTD)
                                                            Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                            -114 Twins(Slowey) over CARDINALS(Wellemeyer), Day 2 (10-15 L3, -11.34 units YTD)
                                                            +132 Red Sox(Wakefield) over BRAVES(Vazquez), Day 2 (10-15 L3, -11.34 units YTD)
                                                            -142 BREWERS(McClung) over Giants(Zito), Day 2 (13-8 L1, +5.63 units YTD)
                                                            -150 DEVIL RAYS(Kazmir) over Marlins(Volstad), Day 2 (13-8 L1, +5.63 units YTD)
                                                            -160 RANGERS(Holland) over Padres(Correia), Day 2 (13-8 L1, +5.63 units YTD)
                                                            +125 Rockies(De La Rosa) over ATHLETICS(Cahill), Day 2 (10-15 L3, -11.34 units YTD)
                                                            Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                            -120 Angels(Lackey) over DIAMONDBACKS(Davis), Day 2 (7-4 L1, +8.74 units YTD)
                                                            -152 PIRATES(Maholm) over Royals(Chen), Day 2 (15-7 W4, +14.38 units YTD)
                                                            Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                            -124 WHITE SOX(Buehrle) over Cubs(Dempster), Day 2 (4-4 L3, -4.81 units YTD)
                                                            -178 ORIOLES(Guthrie) over Nationals(Martis), Day 2 (4-4 L3, -4.81 units YTD)
                                                            GL, everybody!



                                                            Picks went 9-5 overall for +12.04 units. Updated records:

                                                            1-unit plays: 69-63, -1.76 units, -1.33% ROI, -0.203 z-score, p-value of 58.0%
                                                            2-unit plays: 93-79, +8.04 units, +2.34% ROI, 0.380 z-score, p-value of 35.2%
                                                            3-unit plays: 43-29, +29.45 units, +13.63% ROI, 1.456 z-score, p-value of 7.3%
                                                            4-unit plays: 34-23, -2.72 units, -1.19% ROI, -0.123 z-score, p-value of 54.9%

                                                            Overall: 239-194, +33.01 units, +3.59% ROI, 0.877 z-score, p-value of 19.0%
                                                              Comment
                                                              • billdo75
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 05-11-09
                                                                • 418
                                                                #86


                                                                Picks for 6/28/2009:

                                                                Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                                -165 DEVIL RAYS(Price) over Marlins(Miller), Day 3 (9-5 W3, +3.10 units YTD)
                                                                -120 CARDINALS(Pineiro) over Twins(Liriano), Day 3 (9-5 W3, +3.10 units YTD)
                                                                Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                                -158 BREWERS(Suppan) over Giants(Sadowski), Day 3 (23-14 W7, +12.07 units YTD)
                                                                +135 Reds(Owings) over INDIANS(Huff), Day 3 (12-7 L2, +10.12 units YTD)
                                                                +130 Phillies(Moyer) over BLUE JAYS(Tallet), Day 3 (12-7 L2, +10.12 units YTD)
                                                                +124 ASTROS(Ortiz) over Tigers(Jackson), Day 3 (23-14 W7, +12.07 units YTD)
                                                                +125 Angels(Palmer) over DIAMONDBACKS(Scherzer), Day 3 (12-7 L2, +10.12 units YTD)
                                                                -138 RANGERS(Hunter) over Padres(Gaudin), Day 3 (23-14 W7, +12.07 units YTD)
                                                                Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                                -108 Red Sox(Penny) over BRAVES(Hanson), Day 3 (5-2 L1, +11.62 units YTD)
                                                                +137 PIRATES(Morton) over Royals(Greinke), Day 3 (6-4 W1, +5.32 units YTD)
                                                                -132 ORIOLES(Hernandez) over Nationals(Lannan), Day 3 (6-4 W1, +5.32 units YTD)
                                                                Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                                -106 WHITE SOX(Danks) over Cubs(Zambrano), Day 3 (11-2 W1, +17.21 units YTD)
                                                                -103 Rockies(Cook) over ATHLETICS(Mazzaro), Day 3 (3-2 L2, +3.51 units YTD)
                                                                GL, everybody!

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • billdo75
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 05-11-09
                                                                    • 418
                                                                    #87
                                                                    Picks went 6-7 overall for +0.06 units. Updated records:

                                                                    1-unit plays: 70-64, -2.15 units, -1.60% ROI, -0.249 z-score, p-value of 59.8%
                                                                    2-unit plays: 96-82, +9.84 units, +2.76% ROI, 0.465 z-score, p-value of 32.1%
                                                                    3-unit plays: 43-32, +20.45 units, +9.09% ROI, 1.011 z-score, p-value of 15.6%
                                                                    4-unit plays: 36-23, +4.94 units, +2.09% ROI, 0.224 z-score, p-value of 41.1%

                                                                    Overall: 245-201, +33.08 units, +3.48% ROI, 0.878 z-score, p-value of 19.0%
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • billdo75
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 05-11-09
                                                                        • 418
                                                                        #88


                                                                        Picks for 6/29/2009:

                                                                        Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                                        +151 ORIOLES(Berken) over Red Sox(Lester), Day 1 (13-10 L1, -0.13 units YTD)
                                                                        -132 BREWERS(Looper) over Mets(Nieve), Day 1 (13-10 L1, -0.13 units YTD)
                                                                        +143 Devil Rays(Niemann) over BLUE JAYS(Halladay), Day 1 (11-17 W1, -6.70 units YTD)
                                                                        -185 MARLINS(Nolasco) over Nationals(Olsen), Day 1 (13-10 L1, -0.13 units YTD)
                                                                        +120 Angels(O'Sullivan) over RANGERS(Padilla), Day 1 (11-17 W1, -6.70 units YTD)
                                                                        Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                                        -126 Giants(Lincecum) over CARDINALS(Thompson), Day 1 (11-13 L1, -2.88 units YTD)
                                                                        -111 Tigers(Porcello) over ATHLETICS(Anderson), Day 1 (11-13 L1, -2.88 units YTD)
                                                                        -144 Astros(Oswalt) over PADRES(Geer), Day 1 (11-13 L1, -2.88 units YTD)
                                                                        +101 Rockies(Jimenez) over DODGERS(Wolf), Day 1 (11-13 L1, -2.88 units YTD)
                                                                        Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                                        +104 PIRATES(Duke) over Cubs(Harden), Day 1 (5-5 L3, -2.83 units YTD)
                                                                        Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                                        +100 White Sox(Floyd) over INDIANS(Pavano), Day 1 (4-6 W1, -9.13 units YTD)
                                                                        GL, everybody!

                                                                          Comment
                                                                          • billdo75
                                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                                            • 05-11-09
                                                                            • 418
                                                                            #89
                                                                            Picks went 7-4 overall for +2.90 units. Updated records:

                                                                            1-unit plays: 74-65, +0.78 units, +0.56% ROI, 0.090 z-score, p-value of 46.4%
                                                                            2-unit plays: 98-84, +8.81 units, +2.42% ROI, 0.417 z-score, p-value of 33.8%
                                                                            3-unit plays: 43-33, +17.45 units, +7.65% ROI, 0.863 z-score, p-value of 19.4%
                                                                            4-unit plays: 37-23, +8.94 units, +3.72% ROI, 0.405 z-score, p-value of 34.3%

                                                                            Overall: 252-205, +35.98 units, +3.71% ROI, 0.955 z-score, p-value of 17.0%
                                                                              Comment
                                                                              • billdo75
                                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                                • 05-11-09
                                                                                • 418
                                                                                #90
                                                                                Tomorrow's the first of July, so I'll be updating all the season records for everybody. The early half of June was a rough patch going 64-62 for -16.90 units. In the 14 days since, the system has gone 89-73 for exactly 0 units. Here's hoping for a perfect (or near-perfect) day to get June into the black. It's day 3 for all the series, which bodes well...

                                                                                EDIT -- I'm an idiot. It's only day 2 for all the series. D'oh! Oh well...still hoping for the big day...
                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                  • billdo75
                                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                                    • 05-11-09
                                                                                    • 418
                                                                                    #91
                                                                                    5 no-plays means I have to have a perfect day to clear a profit for the month of June. A 10-0 day would help me finish June at +0.96 units. Come on, big money!!!




                                                                                    Picks for 6/30/2009:

                                                                                    Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                                                    +115 ORIOLES(Hill) over Red Sox(Smoltz), Day 2 (18-14 L3, -0.91 units YTD)
                                                                                    +117 PIRATES(Ohlendorf) over Cubs(Lilly), Day 2 (18-14 L3, -0.91 units YTD)
                                                                                    -123 Devil Rays(Garza) over BLUE JAYS(Richmond), Day 2 (8-7 L1, +1.37 units YTD)
                                                                                    +102 ATHLETICS(Gonzalez) over Tigers(Galarraga), Day 2 (18-14 L3, -0.91 units YTD)
                                                                                    -108 Astros(Hampton) over PADRES(Banks), Day 2 (8-7 L1, +1.37 units YTD)
                                                                                    Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                                                    +113 Phillies(Blanton) over BRAVES(Lowe), Day 1 (13-15 L1, -3.91 units YTD)
                                                                                    -260 YANKEES(Chamberlain) over Mariners(Morrow), Day 1 (15-16 W6, -9.15 units YTD)
                                                                                    +175 White Sox(Richard) over INDIANS(Lee), Day 2 (12-16 W2, -8.20 units YTD)
                                                                                    +128 REDS(Arroyo) over Diamondbacks(Haren), Day 1 (15-16 W6, -9.15 units YTD)
                                                                                    Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                                                    +123 BREWERS(Burns) over Mets(Santana), Day 2 (16-7 W5, +16.36 units YTD)
                                                                                    Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                                                    No plays today
                                                                                    GL, everybody!

                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                      • billdo75
                                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                                        • 05-11-09
                                                                                        • 418
                                                                                        #92
                                                                                        Picks went 6-4 overall for +5.09 units. Updated records:

                                                                                        1-unit plays: 77-67, +1.91 units, +1.33% ROI, 0.221 z-score, p-value of 41.2%
                                                                                        2-unit plays: 100-86, +9.08 units, +2.44% ROI, 0.429 z-score, p-value of 33.4%
                                                                                        3-unit plays: 44-33, +21.14 units, +9.15% ROI, 1.045 z-score, p-value of 14.8%
                                                                                        4-unit plays: 37-23, +8.94 units, +3.72% ROI, 0.405 z-score, p-value of 34.3%

                                                                                        Overall: 258-209, +41.07 units, +4.16% ROI, 1.091 z-score, p-value of 13.8%

                                                                                        Series Day 1 plays: 75-80, -38.84 units, -12.37% ROI
                                                                                        Series Day 2 plays: 90-67, +24.00 units, +7.27% ROI
                                                                                        Series Day 3 plays: 84-52, +64.36 units, +21.60% ROI
                                                                                        Series Day 4 plays: 9-10, -8.45 units, -18.77% ROI

                                                                                        I'll be back tonight with the team records...
                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                          • billdo75
                                                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                                                            • 05-11-09
                                                                                            • 418
                                                                                            #93


                                                                                            Picks for 7/1/2009:

                                                                                            Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                                                            +133 Rockies(Hammel) over DODGERS(Kershaw), Day 3 (9-9 W2, +1.35 units YTD)
                                                                                            -179 YANKEES(Pettitte) over Mariners(Washburn), Day 2 (20-15 L1, +0.41 units YTD)
                                                                                            -119 Astros(Moehler) over PADRES(Silva), Day 3 (9-9 W2, +1.35 units YTD)
                                                                                            Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                                                            -171 MARLINS(Johnson) over Nationals(Zimmermann), Day 3 (23-17 L3, +6.07 units YTD)
                                                                                            -104 Twins(Perkins) over ROYALS(Meche), Day 3 (15-7 W3, +17.92 units YTD)
                                                                                            -152 REDS(Cueto) over Diamondbacks(Garland), Day 2 (15-9 L1, +6.37 units YTD)
                                                                                            +132 Giants(Cain) over CARDINALS(Wainwright), Day 3 (15-7 W3, +17.92 units YTD)
                                                                                            Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                                                            +122 PIRATES(Vasquez) over Cubs(Wells), Day 3 (6-6 L2, -0.68 units YTD)
                                                                                            Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                                                            -230 BREWERS(Gallardo) over Mets(Pelfrey), Day 3 (12-2 W2, +20.99 units YTD)
                                                                                            +104 White Sox(Contreras) over INDIANS(Sowers), Day 3 (4-2 W1, +7.39 units YTD)
                                                                                            GL, everybody!

                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                              • billdo75
                                                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                                                • 05-11-09
                                                                                                • 418
                                                                                                #94
                                                                                                Picks went 6-4 overall for -0.03 units. Updated records:

                                                                                                1-unit plays: 79-68, +2.31 units, +1.57% ROI, 0.198 z-score, p-value of 42.1%
                                                                                                2-unit plays: 103-87, +11.49 units, +3.02% ROI, 0.435 z-score, p-value of 33.2%
                                                                                                3-unit plays: 44-34, +18.14 units, +7.75% ROI, 0.717 z-score, p-value of 23.7%
                                                                                                4-unit plays: 38-24, +9.10 units, +3.67% ROI, 0.338 z-score, p-value of 36.8%

                                                                                                Overall: 264-213, +41.04 units, +4.07% ROI, 0.876 z-score, p-value of 19.1%
                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                  • billdo75
                                                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                                                    • 05-11-09
                                                                                                    • 418
                                                                                                    #95
                                                                                                    As promised, here are the team records through the end of June:

                                                                                                    +22.78 units - Devil Rays (20-7 ON, 5-4 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +16.91 units - Indians (4-3 ON, 17-10 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +15.76 units - Blue Jays (12-8 ON, 11-2 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +15.16 units - Orioles (14-7 ON, 9-4 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +14.63 units - Phillies (10-6 ON, 9-5 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +14.40 units - Athletics (4-5 ON, 16-10 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +12.90 units - Mets (6-2 ON, 13-6 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +12.00 units - Brewers (10-7 ON, 8-6 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +11.81 units - Nationals (0-1 ON, 23-10 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +11.44 units - Royals (3-5 ON, 16-7 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +7.99 units - Angels (10-5 ON, 6-6 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +6.03 units - Diamondbacks (4-4 ON, 13-9 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +4.36 units - Giants (9-6 ON, 6-6 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +4.32 units - Rockies (13-7 ON, 4-8 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +4.27 units - Mariners (11-9 ON, 6-4 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +4.01 units - Pirates (11-8 ON, 7-6 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    +1.51 units - Padres (6-5 ON, 11-9 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -1.58 units - Cubs (3-6 ON, 12-11 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -1.90 units - Tigers (11-8 ON, 4-6 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -2.09 units - Cardinals (7-10 ON, 4-4 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -2.10 units - Marlins (7-5 ON, 10-11 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -3.25 units - Yankees (17-7 ON, 2-5 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -3.28 units - Rangers (7-8 ON, 9-5 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -5.22 units - Dodgers (13-11 ON, 0-7 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -5.93 units - White Sox (9-10 ON, 4-9 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -7.11 units - Red Sox (13-8 ON, 2-6 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -13.31 units - Braves (5-10 ON, 9-5 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -13.57 units - Astros (5-8 ON, 10-12 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -18.52 units - Reds (8-12 ON, 7-8 AGAINST)
                                                                                                    -20.28 units - Twins (6-11 ON, 5-8 AGAINST)

                                                                                                    I'll be back later with picks for today!
                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                      • billdo75
                                                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                                                        • 05-11-09
                                                                                                        • 418
                                                                                                        #96


                                                                                                        Picks for 7/2/2009:

                                                                                                        Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                                                                        +133 Brewers(McClung) over CUBS(Dempster), Day 1 (13-17 W3, -4.07 units YTD)
                                                                                                        Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                                                                        -136 BRAVES(Vazquez) over Phillies(Happ), Day 3 (24-17 W1, +7.24 units YTD)
                                                                                                        +124 Giants(Zito) over CARDINALS(Wellemeyer), Day 4 (2-2 L2, -0.63 units YTD)
                                                                                                        -155 ANGELS(Lackey) over Orioles(Guthrie), Day 1 (16-17 L1, -10.38 units YTD)
                                                                                                        Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                                                                        -140 White Sox(Buehrle) over ROYALS(Chen), Day 1 (1-2 L2, -2.04 units YTD)
                                                                                                        Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                                                                        -320 YANKEES(Sabathia) over Mariners(Vargas), Day 3 (12-3 L1, +16.99 units YTD)
                                                                                                        GL, everybody!

                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                          • billdo75
                                                                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                                                                            • 05-11-09
                                                                                                            • 418
                                                                                                            #97
                                                                                                            Picks went 3-3 overall for -2.10 units. Updated records:

                                                                                                            1-unit plays: 79-69, +1.31 units, +0.89% ROI, 0.112 z-score, p-value of 45.5%
                                                                                                            2-unit plays: 105-88, +12.25 units, +3.17% ROI, 0.461 z-score, p-value of 32.3%
                                                                                                            3-unit plays: 45-34, +20.28 units, +8.56% ROI, 0.798 z-score, p-value of 21.2%
                                                                                                            4-unit plays: 38-25, +5.10 units, +2.02% ROI, 0.189 z-score, p-value of 42.5%

                                                                                                            Overall: 267-216, +38.94 units, +3.81% ROI, 0.827 z-score, p-value of 20.4%
                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                              • billdo75
                                                                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                • 05-11-09
                                                                                                                • 418
                                                                                                                #98


                                                                                                                Picks for 7/3/2009:

                                                                                                                Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                                                                                -141 ANGELS(Santana) over Orioles(Hernandez), Day 2 (21-15 W1, +0.97 units YTD)
                                                                                                                +104 Astros(Paulino) over GIANTS(Sadowski), Day 1 (13-18 L1, -5.07 units YTD)
                                                                                                                +130 RANGERS(Hunter) over Devil Rays(Kazmir), Day 1 (15-11 W2, +0.17 units YTD)
                                                                                                                Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                                                                                -170 CUBS(Zambrano) over Brewers(Suppan), Day 2 (16-9 W1, +7.69 units YTD)
                                                                                                                -117 RED SOX(Wakefield) over Mariners(Hernandez), Day 1 (17-17 W1, -9.09 units YTD)
                                                                                                                -167 TWINS(Slowey) over Tigers(French), Day 1 (17-17 W1, -9.09 units YTD)
                                                                                                                Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                                                                                -158 MARLINS(Volstad) over Pirates(Morton), Day 1 (5-6 L4, -5.83 units YTD)
                                                                                                                +136 Mets(Hernandez) over PHILLIES(Lopez), Day 1 (2-2 W1, +0.10 units YTD)
                                                                                                                Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                                                                                -193 YANKEES(Burnett) over Blue Jays(Tallet), Day 1 (7-5 L1, -5.66 units YTD)
                                                                                                                -128 Braves(Kawakami) over NATIONALS(Detwiler), Day 1 (5-6 W2, -5.13 units YTD)
                                                                                                                +135 White Sox(Danks) over ROYALS(Greinke), Day 2 (2-4 W2, -11.22 units YTD)
                                                                                                                GL, everybody!

                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                  • chilidog
                                                                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                                                                    • 04-05-09
                                                                                                                    • 10305
                                                                                                                    #99
                                                                                                                    So, just looking at your ROI, what are your thoughts on just not betting the 1 Unit plays at all? Statistically, they perform the worst.

                                                                                                                    1 Units have won 53.3% of the time.
                                                                                                                    2 Units have won 54.4% of the time.
                                                                                                                    3 Units have won 56.9% of the time.
                                                                                                                    4 Units have won 60.3% of the time.

                                                                                                                    What do you think?
                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                      • billdo75
                                                                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                        • 05-11-09
                                                                                                                        • 418
                                                                                                                        #100
                                                                                                                        Picks for 7/4/2009:

                                                                                                                        Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                                                                                        -230 RED SOX(Penny) over Mariners(Olson), Day 2 (21-16 L1, -0.03 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        +129 Mets(Nieve) over PHILLIES(Moyer), Day 2 (9-8 L1, +1.18 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        +120 Tigers(Jackson) over TWINS(Liriano), Day 2 (9-8 L1, +1.18 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        -114 INDIANS(Pavano) over Athletics(Mazzaro), Day 2 (21-16 L1, -0.03 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                                                                                        -118 Braves(Hanson) over NATIONALS(Lannan), Day 2 (13-16 W3, -4.70 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        +111 Cardinals(Thompson) over REDS(Owings), Day 2 (13-16 W3, -4.70 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        -137 Dodgers(Wolf) over PADRES(Geer), Day 2 (13-16 W3, -4.70 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        -150 MARLINS(Miller) over Pirates(Duke), Day 2 (17-9 W2, +8.87 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                                                                                        +105 YANKEES(Wang) over Blue Jays(Halladay), Day 2 (17-7 W6, +20.05 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        -163 CUBS(Harden) over Brewers(Looper), Day 3 (6-7 L3, -3.68 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        -200 GIANTS(Lincecum) over Astros(Ortiz), Day 2 (17-7 W6, +20.05 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        -200 ROCKIES(Cook) over Diamondbacks(Petit), Day 2 (17-7 W6, +20.05 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                                                                                        -120 White Sox(Floyd) over ROYALS(Hochevar), Day 3 (5-2 W2, +11.55 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        -150 ANGELS(O'Sullivan) over Orioles(Berken), Day 3 (12-4 L2, +12.99 units YTD)
                                                                                                                        GL, everybody and have a great Independence Day!!

                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                          • billdo75
                                                                                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                            • 05-11-09
                                                                                                                            • 418
                                                                                                                            #101
                                                                                                                            Picks from yesterday went 5-6 overall for +1.07 units. Updated records:

                                                                                                                            1-unit plays: 80-71, +0.61 units, +0.40% ROI, 0.052 z-score, p-value of 47.9%
                                                                                                                            2-unit plays: 106-90, +9.43 units, +2.41% ROI, 0.352 z-score, p-value of 36.2%
                                                                                                                            3-unit plays: 45-36, +14.28 units, +5.88% ROI, 0.554 z-score, p-value of 29.0%
                                                                                                                            4-unit plays: 41-25, +15.70 units, +5.95% ROI, 0.565 z-score, p-value of 28.6%

                                                                                                                            Overall: 272-222, +40.02 units, +3.81% ROI, 0.836 z-score, p-value of 20.2%
                                                                                                                              Comment
                                                                                                                              • billdo75
                                                                                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                                • 05-11-09
                                                                                                                                • 418
                                                                                                                                #102
                                                                                                                                Originally posted by chilidog
                                                                                                                                So, just looking at your ROI, what are your thoughts on just not betting the 1 Unit plays at all? Statistically, they perform the worst.

                                                                                                                                1 Units have won 53.3% of the time.
                                                                                                                                2 Units have won 54.4% of the time.
                                                                                                                                3 Units have won 56.9% of the time.
                                                                                                                                4 Units have won 60.3% of the time.

                                                                                                                                What do you think?
                                                                                                                                The 1-unit picks perform the worst, but they also have the smallest average line at -116, so they don't have to win at a high percentage to still clear a profit. As of yesterday's games, they're at +0.61 units and +0.40% ROI. It may not be much, but that's still a profit and I'll take profits anytime. Really, though, I've mostly just been tracking this system. I sunk some money into it earlier this season and got burned pretty good by a bad stretch. I've been able to isolate more favorable conditions from all the games I have tracked. Day 2 and 3 games at the 3- and 4-units levels are 62-35 on the season for +55.61 units and a +16.80% ROI. Going against the Day 1 plays could've resulted in a +58.61 unit swing, from -40.91 to +17.70. I'm just tracking every single play according to the system, then I can analyze and filter to maximize the potential.
                                                                                                                                  Comment
                                                                                                                                  • billdo75
                                                                                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                                    • 05-11-09
                                                                                                                                    • 418
                                                                                                                                    #103
                                                                                                                                    Picks went 5-9 overall for -9.47 units. Updated records:

                                                                                                                                    1-unit plays: 81-74, -1.51 units, -0.98% ROI, -0.126 z-score, p-value of 55.0%
                                                                                                                                    2-unit plays: 107-93, +4.76 units, +1.19% ROI, 0.176 z-score, p-value of 43.0%
                                                                                                                                    3-unit plays: 47-38, +12.93 units, +5.07% ROI, 0.493 z-score, p-value of 31.1%
                                                                                                                                    4-unit plays: 42-26, +14.36 units, +5.28% ROI, 0.510 z-score, p-value of 30.5%

                                                                                                                                    Overall: 277-231, +30.54 units, +2.82% ROI, 0.629 z-score, p-value of 26.5%
                                                                                                                                      Comment
                                                                                                                                      • billdo75
                                                                                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                                        • 05-11-09
                                                                                                                                        • 418
                                                                                                                                        #104


                                                                                                                                        Picks for 7/5/2009:

                                                                                                                                        Risk 1 Unit Each:
                                                                                                                                        +118 RANGERS(Feldman) over Devil Rays(Garza), Day 3 (10-6 L1, +2.70 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        -150 Cardinals(Carpenter) over REDS(Arroyo), Day 3 (10-10 W1, +1.19 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        +104 GIANTS(Johnson) over Astros(Oswalt), Day 3 (10-6 L1, +2.70 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        Risk 2 Units Each:
                                                                                                                                        +100 White Sox(Richard) over ROYALS(Bannister), Day 4 (2-3 L3, -2.63 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        -157 MARLINS(Nolasco) over Pirates(Ohlendorf), Day 3 (25-17 W2, +8.71 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        Risk 3 Units Each:
                                                                                                                                        -195 INDIANS(Lee) over Athletics(Gonzalez), Day 3 (6-8 L4, -6.68 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        -190 YANKEES(Chamberlain) over Blue Jays(Cecil), Day 3 (6-8 L4, -6.68 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        -139 Braves(Lowe) over NATIONALS(Olsen), Day 3 (5-3 L2, +8.62 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        Risk 4 Units Each:
                                                                                                                                        -150 TWINS(Blackburn) over Tigers(Porcello), Day 3 (13-4 W1, +15.65 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        -160 ANGELS(Saunders) over Orioles(Hill), Day 4 (1-0 W1, +1.90 units YTD)
                                                                                                                                        GL, everybody!

                                                                                                                                          Comment
                                                                                                                                          • billdo75
                                                                                                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                                                                                                            • 05-11-09
                                                                                                                                            • 418
                                                                                                                                            #105
                                                                                                                                            Picks went 6-4 overall for +0.87 units. Updated records:

                                                                                                                                            1-unit plays: 83-75, -0.67 units, -0.42% ROI, -0.055 z-score, p-value of 52.2%
                                                                                                                                            2-unit plays: 108-94, +4.04 units, +1.00% ROI, 0.149 z-score, p-value of 44.1%
                                                                                                                                            3-unit plays: 48-40, +8.51 units, +3.22% ROI, 0.321 z-score, p-value of 37.4%
                                                                                                                                            4-unit plays: 44-26, +19.53 units, +6.97% ROI, 0.684 z-score, p-value of 24.7%

                                                                                                                                            Overall: 283-235, +31.41 units, +2.84% ROI, 0.641 z-score, p-value of 26.1%
                                                                                                                                              Comment
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