New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

My understanding was that the TPR was always being shown for the home team.


What I'm looking at shows

ATL vs. LAD. LAD has a TPR of -0.1.

TEX vs. CWS CWS has a TPR of -0.5

"a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is under 1, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs."


Both of those values are under 1 for the home team, so it looked to me like they would be a play on the road team unless the road team was filtered out somehow.

Am I wrong? If so, that's fine, but from reading the rules, I don't understand how they are not plays.

It seems like you are saying that the value for the home team has to be below -1, not below +1.

Thats correct there is a 1 run overlay so its needs to be greater then a - 1 or a + 1.

[barts185]

Todays ML plays based on early lines
KC, TEX, SEA

I thought I had this figured, out, but maybe not.


What early line did you see on the CWS / TEX game that would have made TEX a play?

With the projected line at CWS -105, I thought that CWS would have to be at least +120 for TEX to be a play and the highest overnight line I see is +109 (and it's since come down, looking like CWS will be favored at gametime).


Thanks,
Bart

[barts185]

Thats correct there is a 1 run overlay so its needs to be greater then a - 1 or a + 1.

Is this something peterpan19 and you set up as a filter, or is the wording on the website wrong (or am I just not seeing the part where is says there has to be a 1 run overlay as opposed to just saying home team when over 1 / road team when under 1) ?

Thanks,
Bart

[BetaB]

I'm new to this tread and wondering what is the different between TPR and ML system and what do they stand for. I tried to browse through the tread but the beginning of the thread didnt mention anything about these 2 system.

Also, you said record since May 15th is that for year 2010?

[Formulawiz]

Is this something peterpan19 and you set up as a filter, or is the wording on the website wrong (or am I just not seeing the part where is says there has to be a 1 run overlay as opposed to just saying home team when over 1 / road team when under 1) ?

Thanks,
Bart

Barts, its as clear as can be. Here is the exact wording from the website.

"a play on the home team is generated when the value is over 1, indicating the home team will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents and a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is under 1, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs".

That means there is a 1 run overlay. Hope this clears things up.

[barts185]

Barts, its as clear as can be. Here is the exact wording from the website.

"a play on the home team is generated when the value is over 1, indicating the home team will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents and a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is under 1, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs".

That means there is a 1 run overlay. Hope this clears things up.

Formulawiz,

I see exactly what you have said, but I'm interpreting it differently. I'm not saying I'm right, but if it is supposed to mean what you say, it could be worded a lot clearer.


He's giving the value for the home team for each game.


So when he says

"a play on the home team is generated when the value is over 1, indicating the home team will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents"


To me, that means look at the value for the home team. If the number is greater than 1, the play is on the home team.


"a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is under 1, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs"


To me, that means that when the value he puts out for the home team is under 1 (so 0.99 or less), the play is on the road team.


If the value on the home team needs to be -1 for it to be a play on the road team, I don't know why it wouldn't read something like


"a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is -1 or lower, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs"



If you've gone over this with him, then obviously you are correct. If not, would it be possible to check with him?


Thanks,
Bart

[barts185]

I just talked to Sam at sportrends.


For the TPR system, the value for the home team needs to be 1 or greater for a play on the home team.

The value needs to be -1 or lower for a play on the road team.



He's going to change the wording on the website.



Sorry for any confusion I caused.


Take Care,
Bart

[Formulawiz]

I just talked to Sam at sportrends.


For the TPR system, the value for the home team needs to be 1 or greater for a play on the home team.

The value needs to be -1 or lower for a play on the road team.



He's going to change the wording on the website.



Sorry for any confusion I caused.


Take Care,
Bart

Thanks for clearing it up

[ShivaBowl]

I just talked to Sam at sportrends. For the TPR system, the value for the home team needs to be 1 or greater for a play on the home team. The value needs to be -1 or lower for a play on the road team. He's going to change the wording on the website. Sorry for any confusion I caused. Take Care, Bart

Good-work,barts185, its good to see someone actually getting something done with this thread.
This New baseball PR system as they call it has been around for 20 + years and is very hard to interpret and gets very frustrating when the caretaker keeps sending you back to sportrends.

Barts185 here is the only paid play today haven't checked if it drop out or not.
Maybe you can do the math and post it and we can work on it Friday?

Take Seattle W/Hernandez over Minnesota W/Pavano NO PLAY if < -115 or > -175

[konck]

I cant believe the Yanks were +145 last week to win the div and I didnt bet

[BettingWorld]

I've gone through a butt load of your posts and I'm still confused how you guys calculate the plays or even figure them out. Am I just not reading it clearly, dumb, or both?

[peterpan19]

Beta B
Yes

Barts
I cleared that up already last year and I told you that it has to be 1, clearly the website has some not so good explanation and it happend b4 with sportrends
Hope we are ok now?
Hit me with a PM if you have further questions

[barts185]

Beta B
Yes

Barts
I cleared that up already last year and I told you that it has to be 1, clearly the website has some not so good explanation and it happend b4 with sportrends
Hope we are ok now?
Hit me with a PM if you have further questions

peterpan19

If you are referring to post 1119, sorry if I didn't take that to mean it was definitely when the home team was -1 or lower.

If I've cluttered the thread, I'm sorry, I was trying to make sure I (and possibly others) understood. Maybe I was the only one confused. I won't ask any more questions in the thread.



ShivaBowl - I respect that paid plays are not supposed to be talked about. I don't know if that applies to games that have already started. To answer your question, the final line was approximately -130 for Seattle, so it would have been a play.

[Formulawiz]

Good-work,barts185, its good to see someone actually getting something done with this thread.
This New baseball PR system as they call it has been around for 20 + years and is very hard to interpret and gets very frustrating when the caretaker keeps sending you back to sportrends.

Barts185 here is the only paid play today haven't checked if it drop out or not.
Maybe you can do the math and post it and we can work on it Friday?

Take Seattle W/Hernandez over Minnesota W/Pavano NO PLAY if < -115 or > -175

ShivaBowl, It seems you dont bother to read the rules in our sports thread. We asked people not to post sportrends paid plays here in our sports thread, its unethical to do so and any one would understand it. We dont need problems from sportrends especially when they help us all to make money.
If this system has been around for over 20 years there is no reason to join our thread with your comments. You should be able to work out the plays yourself.

As far as straightening both peter and myself as how the TPR system or ML system works, I can assure you we dont need your help.

If your not satisfied and get frustrated as how we run our thread, we would suggest you go to another thread. All we ask is to simply follow our rules in our thread.

And finally we dont need you or anyone working out the math on paid plays.

[gabrymoschi]

It seems very good. From now on I'll follow you

[ShivaBowl]

Complimentary Selection for 6/4/2010

MLB Take Detroit W/Scherzer over Kansas City W/Chen NO PLAY if < -140 or > -175

[peterpan19]

Shiva this is not the forum to post paid picks...
This is for ML and TPR plays only !

Barts
If you have some questions you can send me a pm or even post here in th thread, but I think the rules should be set now... What do you think?

[Formulawiz]

ML plays went 1-1 yesterday.
Anyway here are the ML plays today based on early lines.

FLA, NYY, DET

[Formulawiz]

Complimentary Selection for 6/4/2010

MLB Take Detroit W/Scherzer over Kansas City W/Chen NO PLAY if < -140 or > -175

We have no problem analyzing sportrends free plays and how they arrived at it.

[ShivaBowl]

peterpan19 If you are referring to post 1119, sorry if I didn't take that to mean it was definitely when the home team was -1 or lower. If I've cluttered the thread, I'm sorry, I was trying to make sure I (and possibly others) understood. Maybe I was the only one confused. I won't ask any more questions in the thread. ShivaBowl - I respect that paid plays are not supposed to be talked about. I don't know if that applies to games that have already started. To answer your question, the final line was approximately -130 for Seattle, so it would have been a play.

Barts, SBR is an open forum, please post what`s on your mind.

The final line was approximately -130 for Seattle

-130
110
=20
-.25
TL .-5

Play would have been off SEA if the line went to -136 and up.
-136
110
=26
-.25
TL .1

[Formulawiz]

Barts, SBR is an open forum, please post what`s on your mind.

The final line was approximately -130 for Seattle

-130
110
=20
-.25
TL .-5

Play would have been off SEA if the line went to -136 and up.
-136
110
=26
-.25
TL .1

Please dont confuse people. Your math is incorrect. The Proj ML line was LAA 110, therefore the Act ML for SEA could have dropped to -115, any value below this would not be a play on SEA. Any ML between -115 to -175 would have been a play on SEA which it was.

[ShivaBowl]

Please dont confuse people. Your math is incorrect. The Proj ML line was LAA 110, therefore the Act ML for SEA could have dropped to -115, any value below this would not be a play on SEA. Any ML between -115 to -175 would have been a play on SEA which it was.

Seattle W/Hernandez over Minnesota W/Pavano NO PLAY if < -115 or > -175

110
+25
135
-110
Tl .25

Ok thanks LAA was +110
GL

[Formulawiz]

Seattle W/Hernandez over Minnesota W/Pavano NO PLAY if < -115 or > -175

110
+25
135
-110
Tl .25

Ok thanks LAA was +110
GL

Sorry it was MIN instead of LAA but SEA was a play anyway.

[barts185]

If you have some questions you can send me a pm or even post here in th thread, but I think the rules should be set now... What do you think?

I think the rules are set.

Thanks - I do appreciate it, and really am sorry I was taking up so much space in the thread.

[peterpan19]

TPR
Cin, Bos
Today

BOL

[SportsAddict]

Seattle W/Hernandez over Minnesota W/Pavano NO PLAY if < -115 or > -175

110
+25
135
-110
Tl .25

Ok thanks LAA was +110
GL

yoo how do yall come up with all these numbers and plays..?

[ShivaBowl]

ML plays went 1-1 yesterday. Anyway here are the ML plays today based on early lines. FLA, NYY, DET

I don't know how you do it, but your dead on.
I'm sure in time and after some duff losses, I will figure, it all out.
Thanks for post, GL.

[Formulawiz]

ML system went 0-3 yesterday. Its amazing how 9 of 12 teams on a W/L streak lost yesterday. Again its been a while since we had a bad day. There has to be a way to see this coming. Anyway I personally did not play against NYM since it was a software BB and PT play. software had a nice day yesterday, BB 2-1 and PT 3-2.

Anyway ML plays later. Let bounce back today.

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays based on early lines.

FLA, PHI, CWS, DET, MIN

[peterpan19]

Laa, sf, phi, bos, min today for TPR if under -175

BOL

[konck]

well I keep saying it ...The Yanks will end up on top just to much to work with

[barts185]

well I keep saying it ...The Yanks will end up on top just to much to work with

Thanks for continuing to supply us with your amazing insight into this team. Your breakdown of the matchups, the lineups, and the situations, not to mention how you relate them to what is supposed to be the topic in this thread, are really worthwhile


To others - sorry for feeding the troll. I'm done.

[Dwell]

Thanks for continuing to supply us with your amazing insight into this team. Your breakdown of the matchups, the lineups, and the situations, not to mention how you relate them to what is supposed to be the topic in this thread, are really worthwhile To others - sorry for feeding the troll. I'm done.

That was funny.

[Formulawiz]

Nice bounce back from the previous day. ML system went 3-1

ML plays later on today.

[ShivaBowl]

Complimentary Selection for 6/6/2010

MLB Take Toronto W/Morrow over NY Yankees W/Vazquez NO PLAY if NYY < -110