New Baseball Power Rating System

[Formulawiz]

In case Formulawiz isn't around, if I now understand it (pretty sure I do, but not 100%), what you need to have is

DET be -140 or lower.

The theoretical line is DET -165.

So if it's DET -140 or lower (has to be a minimum of 25 cent difference), and it looks like the value would be on DET, we go opposite and play OAK.

Of course, you need to check 15-20 minutes before gametime to make sure that the line is still acceptable.

Its not really an opposite play. In my conversation with sportrends about this system they indicated when they come up with their proj ML, for Ex: -165, this where the ML should fall around. If the actual ML is -140, we can look at this as the glass half full or half empty. The logic is that the line should be -165 so why is the Actual ML so much less. Of course it looks like your getting good value at -140 and therefore you should play the fav at a lower ML. But in actuallity sportrends says the line is too low and there must be a good reason for this we is not obvious to us, so therefore they go with the dog. Hopefully I made some sense.

[ShivaBowl]

Why would it have to drop to -104?

The theoretical line is DET -165, the sportrends play is OAK.

Is the -104 some other system you use?

Theres no play on OAK if at -140 .25 -140=115 current line of +112 OAK +3 = 115 I need OAK at +115 or better?

[ShivaBowl]

Its not really an opposite play. In my conversation with sportrends about this system they indicated when they come up with their proj ML, for Ex: -165 as in the DET game today, this where the ML should fall around. The actual line is -140 so we can look at this as the glass half full or half empty. The logic is that the line should be -165 so why is the Actual ML so much less. Of course it looks like your getting good value at -140 and you should play the fav at a lower ML. But in actuallity sportrends says the line is too low and there must be a good reason for this, so therefore they go with the dog. Hopefully I made some sense.

Theres no play on OAK if at -140 .25 -140=115 current line of +112 OAK +3 = 115 I need OAK at +115 or better?

[Formulawiz]

Theres no play on OAK if at -140 .25 -140=115 current line of +112 OAK +3 = 115 I need OAK at +115 or better?

Your getting yourself all confused. I just explained it to you in the above ex:. Take any game where the actual line is -155 and the proj ML is -130, the play would be on the fav. If the actual ML drops more the .25 below the Proj ML of -130 to a -105 there is no play.

[peterpan19]

Tpr:
mil, cin, was
If under -175
GL

[barts185]

Tpr:
mil, cin, was
If under -175
GL

Could you point me to where the additional filters are discussed? I'm looking through the thread, and can't find it and I'm coming up with a lot more / different games based on what's on the website (see post 1045).

Thanks,
Bart

[ShivaBowl]

xxx

[ShivaBowl]

xxx

[ShivaBowl]

xxx

[Formulawiz]

This is the paid play i received from sports trends today..

Take Oakland W/Anderson over Detroit W/Porcello NO PLAY if OAK > -140

SPORTBOOK LINE IS AT DET -120 OAK +110 Proj ML DET -165
165-.25=-140 But it not that simple if the line keeps droping on OAK then the plays off ITs all about value? I cant just look at no play at 140 theres a lot more to it then that. ?

Giving out sportrends plays is forbidden. We dont need any problems from them especially since they have been bent over backwards for us.

[Formulawiz]

xxx

Yes OAK was a play. OAK is not the fav its detroit. You need to read the filters and rules.

[sfi50]

thanks

will keep track thanks for your hard work

[sixersbbiv]

GL on ur picks

[ShivaBowl]

xxx

[ShivaBowl]

Dog, I thought I was losing my mind I had the system down 24 hrs ago and then I read some posts and completely lost it.

[annina]

Yes OAK was a play. OAK is not the fav its detroit. You need to read the filters and rules.

Oak was a winner

[Formulawiz]

Yesterday the ML system went 3-0. The plays were MIL, OAK, TB and COL dropped out. Too bad that was a winner too. The last couple of days ML system is 15-3.

Anyway the software BB went 2-0 and the PT is on fire and went 7-1.

I believe the last time the ML system went 0-4 was on a Sunday. We need to watch out today.
The ML plays will be up later.

[Willie Bee]

Giving out sportrends plays is forbidden. We dont need any problems from them especially since they have been bent over backwards for us.

It is not forbidden by SBR for posters to list plays they have purchased. It would be better served, however, if the plays were listed in the Service Plays forum instead of the baseball forum.

[Formulawiz]

Peter, Nice winning day yesterday with TPR system going 2-1
ML plays up later. Again I must mention we need to be very careful with todays plays.

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays based on early lines

ATL,? MIL, LAD?, TB?
Again watch out for those high ML today.

[barts185]

Not Florida today?

Projected FLA +120
Actual -130 and moving up

So value would appear to be on PHI which means we take FLA, right?





Sorry - I forgot about the filters. My bad

[peterpan19]

Could you point me to where the additional filters are discussed? I'm looking through the thread, and can't find it and I'm coming up with a lot more / different games based on what's on the website (see post 1045). Thanks, Bart

-175 is the cut off, no play against 2 game win streak (unless also on 2 game plus win streak), same for 2 game loosing streak, no new pitcher (less than 20 IP)

short version

TPR:
PHI, was, atl, tor, mil

GL

[barts185]

-175 is the cut off, no play against 2 game win streak (unless also on 2 game plus win streak), same for 2 game loosing streak, no new pitcher (less than 20 IP)

short version

TPR:
PHI, was, atl, tor, mil

GL

Thanks!

[annina]

Yesterday the ML system went 3-0. The plays were MIL, OAK, TB and COL dropped out. Too bad that was a winner too. The last couple of days ML system is 15-3.

Anyway the software BB went 2-0 and the PT is on fire and went 7-1.

I believe the last time the ML system went 0-4 was on a Sunday. We need to watch out today.
The ML plays will be up later.

wow wow wow

[Formulawiz]

ML system went 2-1 yesterday.

As I pointed out yesterday we need to be cautious on Sundays, because there were many teams that were on a major losing streak and came through to win.

Anyway the software BB had no plays but the PT system went 5-2.

Anyway ML plays later.

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML system plays based on early lines.
FLA, CHC, STL.
NYM won yesterday but is not a play today because SD is on a 2 game winning streak. Secondly the NYM are travelling out west for the first game of a series. I usually dont like playing on such teams.

[peterpan19]

ok first month now with TPR almost in the books so here is an update on the records so far:
62-50 +4.09 units
favs only 46-33 +1.94 units
dogs only 16-17 +2.15 units
NL only 32-31 -3.66 units
AL only 30-19 7.75 units
between +140 and -140 37-33 2.41 units

we are still in the plus, but as you can see, the AL is much more profitable than the NL, something to keep an eye on.

GL

[peterpan19]

TPR today:
DET, MIL, CHC, CIN, MIN

GL

[Formulawiz]

ok first month now with TPR almost in the books so here is an update on the records so far:
62-50 +4.09 units
favs only 46-33 +1.94 units
dogs only 16-17 +2.15 units
NL only 32-31 -3.66 units
AL only 30-19 7.75 units
between +140 and -140 37-33 2.41 units

we are still in the plus, but as you can see, the AL is much more profitable than the NL, something to keep an eye on.

GL

Nice breakdown.

[Formulawiz]

I am trying out something new. Does anyone know a good site that shows the win/loss record when a pitcher starts a game besides Covers.

[peterpan19]

formula
what do you need? just win/loss record for a pitcher ? or win/loss against a specific team?

[Formulawiz]

formula
what do you need? just win/loss record for a pitcher ? or win/loss against a specific team?

Just win/loss record for a pitcher when he starts the game. The win/loss records the way most sites show it dont take into account if the pitcher is taken out and the bullpen win or lose the game which is not his fault.

[barts185]

Just win/loss record for a pitcher when he starts the game. The win/loss records the way most sites show it dont take into account if the pitcher is taken out and the bullpen win or lose the game which is not his fault.

The statfox game matchup page shows both the record for the team when a pitcher started, and the pitcher's record when he is recorded as the winning / losing pitcher.

http://www.statfox.com/mlb/gamematchup.asp

If you click on the pitchers name, you will also see the units won / lost if you played that starter in different situations (again, every game they started, not just when they were the pitcher of record).

Take Care,
Bart

[peterpan19]

Just win/loss record for a pitcher when he starts the game. The win/loss records the way most sites show it dont take into account if the pitcher is taken out and the bullpen win or lose the game which is not his fault.

ok, now I know what you mean

The statfox game matchup page shows both the record for the team when a pitcher started, and the pitcher's record when he is recorded as the winning / losing pitcher. http://www.statfox.com/mlb/gamematchup.asp If you click on the pitchers name, you will also see the units won / lost if you played that starter in different situations (again, every game they started, not just when they were the pitcher of record). Take Care, Bart

thx, you beat me too it ;-)

[Cranium]

Would HOU be a ML play if it drops to -175 or less?

Thanks