New Baseball Power Rating System

Formulawiz · 05-16-10, 06:52 AM

Based on early lines here are the ML plays
STL, LAD, NYY, SEA, LAA

Formulawiz · 05-16-10, 05:54 PM

The software BB is starting to kick ass already. It went 3-0 today along with the PT system which went 6-2. The only game left is PHI.

dsklein85 · 05-16-10, 06:02 PM

i filtered some of those games off. still went 4-1 and had a great day!!

Dwell · 05-16-10, 06:05 PM

Do you ever send out your plays to people when you make them? If so, I would love to know what you play. I'm kinda new to this and it seems like you know what you're doing. I'm a little confused at what everything in your thread means, but I definitely want to learn.

Formulawiz · 05-16-10, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by Dwell

Do you ever send out your plays to people when you make them? If so, I would love to know what you play. I'm kinda new to this and it seems like you know what you're doing. I'm a little confused at what everything in your thread means, but I definitely want to learn.

The only free plays I put out in this forum is the ML system, whereas Peter uses the TPR system.
The BB and PT system which are in sportrends software must be purchased. Last year we had a stellar year using the software.

cheaporanges · 05-16-10, 10:52 PM

thanks guys for your valuable and interesting thread.i thinking of buying the software because it so cheap.Will it work in windows 7?Thats my only concern

konck · 05-16-10, 11:50 PM

Are the Mets single digits yet

Formulawiz · 05-17-10, 07:33 AM

ML went 2-3 yesterday
Todays plays based on early line:
CHC, STL?, SF, CLE?, LAA,SEA?

CashMoney · 05-17-10, 08:28 AM

Software BB's since 5/1 = 12-8 +.37
Software PT since 5/2 = 53-37 +11.26

Total 65-45 +11.63

I'm tracking the software for the rest of the year. If this makes +30 units for the season I will quit capping and rely 100% on the software.

rkelly110 · 05-17-10, 08:40 AM

Yeah CashMoney, piss on Boston! They suck!

peterpan19 · 05-17-10, 02:57 PM

DET, SF and LAD today for TPR
GL

EXhoosier10 · 05-17-10, 03:57 PM

For those who were not here last year, fading the PT 30 day plays that are 90% or greater (meaning playing against the team that has a Pythag theorem % chance of covering based on the last 30 days of .9174), hits at about a 50% clip. Usually these teams >90% are heavy favs, so 50% can net you quite a bit of cash.

Last year had a 25.0% ROI betting a flat amount each game against these teams. If you only bet dogs, it returned 26.4%. There has been 1 play since 5/15 and it was Minnesota against Nyy on 5/16. Minnesota won 6-3 as a -150 fav.

Venkman · 05-17-10, 05:18 PM

alot of action for the best bet's tonight

bigsmitty · 05-17-10, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

The software BB is starting to kick ass already. It went 3-0 today along with the PT system which went 6-2. The only game left is PHI.

How do you get the software Wiz and how much? Cheers

Formulawiz · 05-17-10, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by bigsmitty

How do you get the software Wiz and how much? Cheers

go to www.sportrends.com

Formulawiz · 05-17-10, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

For those who were not here last year, fading the PT 30 day plays that are 90% or greater (meaning playing against the team that has a Pythag theorem % chance of covering based on the last 30 days of .9174), hits at about a 50% clip. Usually these teams >90% are heavy favs, so 50% can net you quite a bit of cash.

Last year had a 25.0% ROI betting a flat amount each game against these teams. If you only bet dogs, it returned 26.4%. There has been 1 play since 5/15 and it was Minnesota against Nyy on 5/16. Minnesota won 6-3 as a -150 fav.

I am not sure what your doing but you should not be playing heavy favorites. Check our filters.

EXhoosier10 · 05-17-10, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

I am not sure what your doing but you should not be playing heavy favorites. Check our filters.

For the most part, this is playing against heavy favs. Tonight, there is a team (using the Pythagorean Theorem System) with only an 8.26% chance of covering (using the past 30 days). By betting on this team and similar teams with <10% chance of covering, I had a ROI of 25% last year. Adding the Dogs only filter, it was a 26% ROI. Until I see something other than a -1% ROI, I will continue betting on all of these situations and not just dogs.

ludger · 05-17-10, 07:45 PM

excuse my ignorance, but what does tpr stand for ?

Venkman · 05-18-10, 12:10 AM

i like nights like this

peterpan19 · 05-18-10, 01:35 AM

Originally posted by CashMoney

Software BB's since 5/1 = 12-8 +.37 Software PT since 5/2 = 53-37 +11.26 Total 65-45 +11.63

I'm tracking the software for the rest of the year. If this makes +30 units for the season I will quit capping and rely 100% on the software.

Looks good, but do you use our filters too? Or is this for all games only ?

Originally posted by ludger

excuse my ignorance, but what does tpr stand for ?

Team Projected Runs

GL

Formulawiz · 05-18-10, 06:38 AM

ML system went 2-2 yesterday

Software BB went 4-1 and PT went 6-4

ML plays later

Formulawiz · 05-18-10, 06:39 AM

Whatever system your using including the software you should use the filters

Formulawiz · 05-18-10, 07:27 AM

Todays ML plays based on early lines
NYM, CHC, LAA

dsklein85 · 05-18-10, 08:27 AM

yo wiz whats the ML year to date record look like so far??

peterpan19 · 05-18-10, 08:28 AM

TPR today:
DET, ARZ... but ARZ is up against Josh today and Buckner sucks... so play it safe and pass

dsklein85 · 05-18-10, 08:30 AM

hey peter how is the tpr doing so far this year?

Formulawiz · 05-18-10, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

TPR today:
DET, ARZ... but ARZ is up against Josh today and Buckner sucks... so play it safe and pass

ARI would'nt be a play anyway. Buckner has not pitched yet this season.

BeanSaunce · 05-18-10, 09:27 AM

Im on the mets with you.

peterpan19 · 05-18-10, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

ARI would'nt be a play anyway. Buckner has not pitched yet this season.

correct

Sawyer · 05-18-10, 11:40 AM

This system looks interesting (and $$$$$)..

GL Tonight mate!

Formulawiz · 05-19-10, 06:33 AM

ML system went 0-3 yesterday.
Software BB went 3-0. Its on fire.
PT went 3-3

ML plays later

Formulawiz · 05-19-10, 08:01 AM

Todays ML plays based on early lines
CUBS, ATL, STL, BOS, BAL,

dsklein85 · 05-19-10, 08:23 AM

hey wiz who were the teams you wagerd on? i had atl and tex for BB. and for PT i had oak and sdp

peterpan19 · 05-19-10, 08:24 AM

TPR had a bad day, I dont have a record right now, still have to put everything into an excel file, but not much time right now, hope to do it the nxt couple days

COL, DET, LAD

note: LAD are on a long win streak, so they are due to loose a game sooner or later
also the system has MIL, which is on a long loosing streak, no play, but they are due too...

consider that when you make your wager
GL

Dwell · 05-19-10, 12:55 PM

Can somebody list the filters, or direct me to where to find them? I would appreciate it.