Keel's MLB Parlay System

[keel44]

Here is how it will go down:

* I will be making parlays that pay at least 3-1

* Parlay A: Risk 1 to win 3
Parlay B: Risk 3 to win 9
Parlay C: Risk 12 to win 36 = (48-1 scenario)

* I will have a profit target and will divide that by 48. That gives me the starting risk amount.

* Losses from parlay "A" only get added to the profit target and divided by 48 again giving a new risk amount.

* Bets rise very slowly after Parlay "A" losses and bets rise greatly after wins -- using "house" money.

* Units are 2% of total bankroll = 50 unit bank

* Last year starting July 23, I made 34.79 units. I abandoned 2 runs, so it might have been more.

* I have posted all of my plays on this website and on my spreadsheet every day since last year.


Referenes

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ay-system.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/2948849-keels-football-parlay-system.html

Keel's Baseball Action starting on post #252

http://keel44.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[keel44]

I will go for a 15 unit profit to start the season.

15 / 48 = 0.31 unit will be the starting wager amount.

I look forward to a profitable year, but there will need to be patience. I could be losing for 2 months and then "bam!" I make my target.

This strategy takes advantage of hot streaks by my handicapping. I am given a ton of opportunities to make that happen. I guess you could call this method a grind and jump.

To anyone who follows, you need patience and perseverance. I will usually post from 10am - 12pm everyday.

Good luck to everyone with what they choose to do

[Yazworm91]

Hit it up Keel!!! Best of luck good sir.

[keel44]

April 5

No Plays

[tsimmns]

I'll be following. Sounds like a good system. I'll throw a stack on it and see how it goes.

[keel44]

* O.K. it is time for baseball. All of my plays will be action and I will be going for 15 unit profit.

April 6

Parlay 01-A: Mariners with Marlins -1.5 (0.31 to win 1.05)
Parlay 02-A: Rockies with Yankees (0.31 to win 1.01)

[keel44]

April 6

Parlay 01-A: Mariners with Marlins -1.5 (0.31 to win 1.05)
Parlay 02-A: Rockies with Yankees (0.31 to win 1.01)

[keel44]

April 7

Parlay 03-A: Rockies with Mariners (0.325 to win 0.97)

This bet just barely misses a 3-1 payout, but it will work out in the end no problem. It is rounded up on the spreadsheet.

[keel44]

April 7

Parlay 03-A: Rockies with Mariners (0.325 to win 0.97)

Can't find the ears just yet.

[zekeone]

Sounds like fun. GL

[keel44]

April 8

Parlay 04-A: Cubs with Braves (0.33 to win 1.08)
Parlay 05-A: Padres with Indians (0.33 to win 1.01)

[skyscrapers]

Thinking of skipping the A bets and just start playing from the B bet.

[Looking4Winners]

April 8

Parlay 04-A: Cubs with Braves (0.33 to win 1.08)
Parlay 05-A: Padres with Indians (0.33 to win 1.01)

C'mon Braves , It's time to hit one of these. Thought we were going to hit one yesterday but the Mariners laid an egg.

[keel44]

Thinking of skipping the A bets and just start playing from the B bet.

I don't understand why. You should either play all of my plays straight and hope I can turn a profit or play my progressions. "B" is not better than "A"

[keel44]

C'mon Braves , It's time to hit one of these. Thought we were going to hit one yesterday but the Mariners laid an egg.

You must be willing to ride out many losses in a row. There will be plenty of times to complete this run. Patience and perseverance is very crucial here.

[keel44]

April 8

Parlay 04-A: Cubs with Braves (0.33 to win 1.08)
Parlay 05-A: Padres with Indians (0.33 to win 1.01)

[keel44]

April 9

Parlay 04-B: Athletics -1.5 with Phillies OVER 7.5 (1.08 to win 3.99)

[keel44]

April 9

Parlay 04-B: Athletics -1.5 with Phillies OVER 7.5 (1.08 to win 3.99)

[keel44]

April 10

AFTERNOON

Parlay 06-A: Rangers with Rockies -1.5 (0.34 to win 1.32)


I will have a play later after these games. Check back no later than 5:55pm

[fitguy67]

keel,

most books give you choice on the ML between specifying that "both listed" (and in some cases you are allowed to specify at least "one of the listed" pitchers) must start in order for the bet to have "action"

but most books do not give you any choice for most other types of bets (especially in a parlay), so that unless "both listed" pitchers start all bets (except ML-bets specified otherwise) are generally voided...in other words all non-ML parlay legs are considered "both listed" by default
______________

bet365 is rather unique in that you are almost always able (not just on ML, but on RL's and OU's as well) to select "action" on each leg of the parlay you're building

without thinking TOO much about it till now, I've been assuming that, given the choice, "action" plays are naturally preferable for all the selections that make up your parlays

specifically, i was able to lock up today's play at bet365 as
1. col-1.5(action) * tex (action)
but i suspect that many/most will be locked into a choice between
2. col-1.5 (both listed) * tex (action), or perhaps even forced into
3. col-1.5 (both listed) * tex (both listed)

__________
how are you configuring your parlay legs in terms of "action" vs. the usual default of "both listed"

my ultimate goal will be to emulate your results and avoid getting fukt by Murphy's Law (=getting stung with an "action" loss on a C-leg you were voided out of because of a pitcher change...or by getting voided out due to a pitcher change on a winning leg of a 'C' parlay you had "action" on)

once i know how you're handling this "action"/"listed" choice, i'll configure my parlays exactly the same way...so that our 's and 's are in sync

[keel44]

Good points Fitguy.

If I happen to have a -1.5 bet, I must have both pitcher's listed.

If it is just ml, then I choose "action".

In this case, I have one of each ml and rl. The ml is "action". The rl is both pitchers "listed".

[fitguy67]

FYI, further to the appropriateness of b365 for MLB-parlays...in addition to allowing full "both-listed/one-listed/action" flexibility to all the legs (including RL's and OU's) of your parlay ...they also allow same-game ML's and Totals to be parlayed (verboten at many places)...and also have been running a brilliant 5% bonus payout on all 2-leg parlay payouts (meaning that +358, say, would graduate to +376 on payout for example), so that even when their board prices are unimpressive the after-bonus payout rivals or beats the lowest-juice houses)...

'nother thing i like about 365 for parlays is that if you're late for a leg that's already started, you can still parlay the live version of the line you missed to the remaining leg...

______________

henceforth i'll configure my parlays in the standard ("action" for ML, "listed" for everything else) way you do now...so our 's and 's will line up

(let me know if you ever go the b365 route and change this)

[keel44]

April 10

Parlay 06-A: Rangers with Rockies -1.5 (0.34 to win 1.32)
Parlay 07-A: Red Sox with Royals (0.34 to win 1.03)

[keel44]

April 10

Parlay 06-A: Rangers with Rockies -1.5 (0.34 to win 1.32)
Parlay 07-A: Red Sox with Royals (0.34 to win 1.03)

[keel44]

April 11

Parlay 07-B: White Sox -1.5 with Reds (1.03 to win 3.35)
Parlay 08-A: Braves with Royals (0.34 to win 1.06)

[keel44]

April 11

Parlay 07-B: White Sox -1.5 with Reds (1.03 to win 3.35)
Parlay 08-A: Braves with Royals (0.34 to win 1.06)

I should've reversed them....oh well

[keel44]

April 12

Parlay 08-B: Marlins with Tigers -1.5 (1.06 to win 3.56)

[keel44]

April 12

Parlay 08-B: Marlins with Tigers -1.5 (1.06 to win 3.56)

-1.62 units so far
1 week in ..... only 8 attempts

[keel44]

Everyday and every bet I make, I learn something. I am learning and adjusting my handicapping on the fly throughout this past year. My efforts are to catch a little fire as to match my money management. I feel I have not done that entirely in this first week of MLB. I am backing some sluggish teams here and there. It won't happen again.

[keel44]

April 13

Parlay 09-A: Tigers with Royals -1.5 (0.34 to win 1.26)
Parlay 10-A: Braves with Mariners (0.34 to win 1.03)

[fitguy67]

gud luk keel

[keel44]

Fitguy, did you follow my bets for the NBA? Did you cash in on Easter Sunday with me?

[fitguy67]

yeah, with you on this project since it spun off from last year's mlb thread...and onto the nfl then the nba versions

i'm a big fan of the protocol...a very subdued chase that uses time (and thus additional chances) instead of money to eventually prevail...extremely gradual bet-size jumps (a result of the huge payout leverage--48x for example in the MLB version) allow for so many more whacks at success than any martingaling/line-clearing system...

it was death in the beginning to bear with weeks on weeks of either nothing or disheartening "almosts"...but now i see it with a detached attitude that it's good for the soul to wait for what you know you deserve, and will get...because you have the composure to keep firing the attempt-bullets with intelligently-conserved $-gunpowder

[keel44]

April 13

Parlay 09-A: Tigers with Royals -1.5 (0.34 to win 1.26)
Parlay 10-A: Braves with Mariners (0.34 to win 1.03)

Very frustrating day.....no excuses.

I have made 13 parlay attempts. I have lost 10 of them. Of those 10, I got both legs wrong only once. The other 9 I split the 2 legs. I feel I am seeing things well enough right now. I just need a little better decision making on which team to back.

[keel44]

Plays will be later this afternoon...