Keel's Football Parlay System

**keel44** · 08-31-14, 10:43 PM

It is important that you get the lines that I get. You don't necessarily have to get the exact odds. Just make sure the parlay pays at least 2-1.

I have had great success doing this in the MLB which is a 48-1 scenario.

I will post my plays here. By all means I recommend this money management strategy for everybody, but please don't post your plays here.

Here is my spreadsheet: http://keel44.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

My parlay project for MLB started July 23

**keel44** · 09-01-14, 11:07 AM

I will play to profit 10 units this go round.

10 divide by 18 = 0.56 unit is where our wager amounts will begin.

1 unit equals 2% of a total bankroll

**keel44** · 09-01-14, 11:37 AM

*I do buy points, so you need to get the lines I get

WEEK 1

Parlay 01-A: Browns +7.5 with Cowboys +5 (0.56 to win 1.3)
Parlay 02-A: Patriots -3.5 with Seahawks -5.5 (0.56 to win 1.22)
Parlay 03-A: Texans -2.5 with Broncos -6.5 (0.56 to win 1.14)

**BarstoolProphet** · 09-01-14, 11:57 AM

Good Luck .

Is it possible to start a new sheet for NFL?

**VegasInsider** · 09-01-14, 08:48 PM

**keel44** · 09-01-14, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by BarstoolProphet

Good Luck .

Is it possible to start a new sheet for NFL?

Just click the drop down box to sort between sports

**DON_23** · 09-02-14, 01:07 AM

DON thinks you will fail

**fitguy67** · 09-02-14, 10:40 AM

IF the intention of the above post was to demonstrate that the words "post" and "contribution" are not direct synonyms...

THEN don did not fail, and let's hope that her other 5 posts were similarly effective...

IF the intention was otherwise, then don is just a twat acting like a dick...

in either case don is done here...

_______________

ok, unlike MLB, there's lotsa time to shop for these plays, so should be super-easy to make sure we get at least +200 on each, and quite easy to do at least "a little" better than that (as you have here) and--when "a little" gets compounded over 3 successive plays--end up with MUCH better than a 10unit gain when that "little run of luck" eventually comes and makes all the patience and persistence worthwhile

good luck on the new project, sir

**keel44** · 09-02-14, 10:54 AM

This could fail, but it would be a crazy unbelievable prolonged slump on my part picking games. I need just to get hot for a bit to capture an 18-1 chase with a 50 unit max bankroll. If I get just 10 units for the whole NFL season, I'll be happy. I am not greedy with this and it is also my strength. It may look like it, but I never force plays just to come to a conclusion. Trust me, these are good plays.

I will be running the NBA version of this in a couple months overlapping the NFL.

**BigdaddyQH** · 09-02-14, 06:54 PM

These systems are a die a dozen. It will be interesting to see how you do. You are also as phony as they come. Do not give us this caca: "It is important that you get the lines that I get. You don't necessarily have to get the exact odds. Just make sure the parlay pays at 2-1..." Cleveland is not, and never has been + 7 1/2. Do not even try to insult our intelligence with that crap. You also conviently do not bother to tell us which book you allegedly get these odds at. Game over.

**fitguy67** · 09-02-14, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

These systems are a die a dozen. It will be interesting to see how you do. You are also as phony as they come. Do not give us this caca: "It is important that you get the lines that I get. You don't necessarily have to get the exact odds. Just make sure the parlay pays at 2-1..." Cleveland is not, and never has been + 7 1/2. Do not even try to insult our intelligence with that crap. You also conviently do not bother to tell us which book you allegedly get these odds at. Game over.

arithmetic and logic not your long suit, eh?

Any square-root key will tell you that to meet the +200-threshold on your parlay, the odds you'll need to get on each spread are -137ish...implying the ability to easily buy these "non-existent" numbers off the plain-vanilla -110 values you are fixated on.

If you don't have access to buying points (or if you are hard-wired to bitch and accuse others before thinking) then this thread is definitely not for you...i'm sure any of the other eleven you refer to will be happy to take your $0.10

**keel44** · 09-02-14, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

These systems are a die a dozen. It will be interesting to see how you do. You are also as phony as they come. Do not give us this caca: "It is important that you get the lines that I get. You don't necessarily have to get the exact odds. Just make sure the parlay pays at 2-1..." Cleveland is not, and never has been + 7 1/2. Do not even try to insult our intelligence with that crap. You also conviently do not bother to tell us which book you allegedly get these odds at. Game over.

Nobody has consistently posted a system like this. I have posted my baseball plays from March 30 until August 26 every damn day like clockwork. I have used my parlay strategy sine July 23. It profited 34.79 units. I am up 20 units overall for baseball.

Keel's Baseball Action - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2847610-keels-baseball-action.html#post21525454

MLB handicapping, baseball betting, picks, matchups and the latests game results in the MLB forum.

I have a whole NFL season posted on here last year. It was just straight bets mostly. I have finished with +15 units profit. I also posted for the entire season

NFL Keel's picks - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/2563146-nfl-keels-picks.html

NFL betting and handicapping forum: discuss football picks, NFL odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results.

I use only www.sportsbook.ag. .... I BUY POINTS ! That is why it is important that you get the lines I get. That is why my parlay minimum is 2-1. It gives me flexibility.

**keel44** · 09-02-14, 10:39 PM

*I do buy points, so you need to get the lines I get

WEEK 1

Parlay 01-A: Browns +7.5 with Cowboys +5 (0.56 to win 1.3)
Parlay 02-A: Patriots -3.5 with Seahawks -5.5 (0.56 to win 1.22)
Parlay 03-A: Texans -2.5 with Broncos -6.5 (0.56 to win 1.14)

Match the lines I posted by buying points. Just make sure the parlay pays at least 2-1.

**CashRakist** · 09-05-14, 12:35 AM

Good luck buddy I would probably go with your picks so I'm on board

**keel44** · 09-05-14, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by CashRakist

Good luck buddy I would probably go with your picks so I'm on board

My picks are pretty good, but the real strength is this money management. I truly believe there is no better money management strategy. You get the best of chasing and the best of positive progression rolled into one. This is safe and effective, but you need patients and not to be greedy.

**keel44** · 09-06-14, 05:05 PM

I just needed to add this play after further study (parlay 4)

WEEK 1

Parlay 01-A: Browns +7.5 with Cowboys +5 (0.56 to win 1.3)
Parlay 02-A: Patriots -3.5 with Seahawks -5.5 (0.56 to win 1.22)
Parlay 03-A: Texans -2.5 with Broncos -6.5 (0.56 to win 1.14)
Parlay 04-A: Bills +7.5 with Jets -5.5 (0.56 to win 1.29)

Match the lines I posted by buying points. Just make sure the parlay pays at least 2-1.

**keel44** · 09-07-14, 10:28 PM

WEEK 1

Parlay 01-A: Browns +7.5 with Cowboys +5 (0.56 to win 1.3)
Parlay 02-A: Patriots -3.5 with Seahawks -5.5 (0.56 to win 1.22)
Parlay 03-A: Texans -2.5 with Broncos -6.5 (0.56 to win 1.14)
Parlay 04-A: Bills +7.5 with Jets -5.5 (0.56 to win 1.29)

Real tough pill to swallow on the Jets game. Oh well, that is why they have point spreads. I expected to get 2 of these. I got one.

-1.68 gets added to our 10 unit target. So 11.68 divide by 18 = 0.64888.

0.65 unit will be our next parlay risk amount going forward.

**keel44** · 09-08-14, 05:26 PM

Getting these in early because of potential line movement. I will add more later.

Week 2

Parlay 05-A: Steelers +3.5 with Dolphins -1 (0.65 to win 1.39)

Match the lines I posted by buying points. Just make sure the parlay pays at least 2-1.

**keel44** · 09-09-14, 12:11 PM

Getting these in early because of potential line movement. I will add more later.

Week 2

Parlay 05-A: Steelers +3.5 with Dolphins -1 (0.65 to win 1.39)
Parlay 06-A: Patriots -2.5 with Bengals -5 (0.65 to win 1.39)

Match the lines I posted by buying points. Just make sure the parlay pays at least 2-1.

**keel44** · 09-09-14, 08:37 PM

Getting these in early because of potential line movement.

Week 2

Parlay 05-A: Steelers +3.5 with Dolphins -1 (0.65 to win 1.39)
Parlay 06-A: Patriots -2.5 with Bengals -5 (0.65 to win 1.39)
Attempt 03-B: Rams ml +210 (1.14 to win 2.37)

Match the lines I posted by buying points. Just make sure the parlay pays at least 2-1.

*I am looking for the Rams to erase the drubbing from last week against a lesser team.

**joeygats** · 09-10-14, 02:49 AM

your just as bad as me lol

**fitguy67** · 09-12-14, 09:22 AM

keel, here's an article that might be applied to fit in nicely with your bet-sizing protocol

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2013-07-18/sports-betting-gambling-strategy-tips-two-team-nfl-teaser-las-vegas-books

**keel44** · 09-12-14, 10:08 AM

Week 2

Parlay 05-A: Steelers +3.5 with Dolphins -1 (0.65 to win 1.39)
Parlay 06-A: Patriots -2.5 with Bengals -5 (0.65 to win 1.39)
Attempt 03-B: Rams ml +210 (1.14 to win 2.37)
Parlay 07-A: Dolphins pk with 49ers -6.5 (0.65 to win 1.54)

O.K. Steelers lost for me, now I will add attempt 7.

**keel44** · 09-12-14, 10:16 AM

That was a good read fitguy67. Thanks. I am considering all options that can pay me at least 2-1.
I hope you are on board with my strategy, at least the money management.

**fitguy67** · 09-12-14, 11:00 PM

i love the bet-sizing approach: i call it "subdued chase/aggressive press"...

in addition to blind-tailing your NFL (and planning to do so, as well, when u start with the NBA)...I plan to use it for NHL (focusing on auto-selected ml/ou's at +300min...much like ur MLB project but less discretionary)

**keel44** · 09-14-14, 06:57 PM

Week 2

Parlay 05-A: Steelers +3.5 with Dolphins -1 (0.65 to win 1.39)
Parlay 06-A: Patriots -2.5 with Bengals -5 (0.65 to win 1.39)
Attempt 03-B: Rams ml +210 (1.14 to win 2.37)
Parlay 07-A: Dolphins pk with 49ers -6.5 (0.65 to win 1.54)

sitting pretty good right now

I will add in 2 more "A" losses. Any new bets going forward will start at 0.72 unit

**keel44** · 09-16-14, 11:14 AM

Getting these in early.....

Week 3

Parlay 03-C: Giants +3.5 with Chiefs +5 (3.53 to win 7.42)
Parlay 06-B: Ravens -2 with Titans +7.5 (1.39 to win 3.30)

Match the lines I posted by buying points. Just make sure the parlay pays at least 2-1.
Lines are from www.sportsbook.ag

**keel44** · 09-21-14, 10:41 PM

Week 3

Parlay 03-C: Giants +3.5 with Chiefs +5 (3.53 to win 7.42)
Parlay 06-B: Ravens -2 with Titans +7.5 (1.39 to win 3.30)

Alright, I have completed my "C" wager, but I fell short of my profit target of 10 units. I had a couple too many "A" wagers lose. I am up 7.97 units overall. I am still very satisfied. My average wager was 1.025 units.

Time to try again for another 10 unit target.

**fitguy67** · 09-22-14, 09:05 AM

good start, keel...hitting a C in the minimum number of weeks

**keel44** · 09-22-14, 01:17 PM

Yeah, I am happy.

I only risked a total of 10.25 units with a profit of 7.97 units. 77.75% ROI. Is that true?

If you were to break apart my bets into straight wagers, I would be 9-9-1. Those are with buying points on a lot of those plays as well. So, my money management strategy is truly a great thing. I am looking forward to be betting this way for the whole year every year.

**Titto84** · 09-22-14, 02:04 PM

Good system!!

**the1outlaw** · 09-22-14, 02:14 PM

Nice job Keel...I am still having some success with your baseball system as well. I'm not as aggressive with it though so it is not as profitable as it could be at times. I like the 2 team parlay approach though!

**keel44** · 09-22-14, 04:35 PM

Press when your hot. Chase when your not.

If you can find the right balance between the 2, you can have staying power and recovery power.

You see, the bets rise after wins and losses, but at different rates, how much bankroll you want to use is the limit. How much bankroll you want to use is synonymous with time. I want to come to a resolution within a fixed time frame. That is forcing consistency upon my betting. If I can't get "hot" enough within a fixed time frame, then my bankroll will take the hit. But if I do get hot enough, then my winnings soar above my previous losses.

You can look at that big picture and formulate how many bets you need to win versus the total risk versus the time/bankroll your willing to give it. You create the scenario and you create the parameters that best fit your expectations.

I am sorry, but the way most people bet, and I was one of them, is too delusional. They think or hope they have an edge that will make them money. If you don't know for sure you can win bets at a higher rate than what is needed, then you need to implement a forced win scenario that I have described above. There are lots of scenarios. I choose mine based on what I am happy with.

I do wish everyone luck with what they choose to do.

**keel44** · 09-24-14, 10:25 AM

I am starting again with a 10 unit profit target. 10 divide by 18 gives us 0.56 unit as the beginning wager amount.

Lines are from www.sportsbook.ag

I do buy points.

Week 4

Parlay 01-A: Raiders +4.5 with Packers -1.5 (0.56 to win 1.4)
Parlay 02-A: Giants +3.5 with Texans -2.5 (0.56 to win 1.31)