Keel's Baseball Action

**alamo** · 07-23-14, 11:15 AM

Sorry Keel things didnt work out for you. Stay strong bud.

**fitguy67** · 07-23-14, 12:43 PM

GSE/LAA (C)

i started yesterday playing all (any system) of his posted C/D's as a simple 2-game chase to net-win a unit
yesterday TOR +1.5, -150 won so 1-0, +1u

____________

gud luk on the new approach...

ah what the hell, "recouping 15-or-so units fairly quickly with clever bet-size management" loves company, i always say...

i don't think there are too many online books that allow (ml*total) parlays on the same game BUT bet365 does...so fully onboard

**whtsox13** · 07-23-14, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

GSE/LAA (C)

i started yesterday playing all (any system) of his posted C/D's as a simple 2-game chase to net-win a unit
yesterday TOR -1.5@-150...won so 1-0, +1u

I'll play along. Fitguy are you going to continue to post these here as they come up?

**keel44** · 07-23-14, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Sorry Keel things didnt work out for you. Stay strong bud.

It is not over yet. I am determined to come out on top this MLB season without wagering too high of units. My biggest wager so far has been only 3.39 units.

**fitguy67** · 07-23-14, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by whtsox13

I'll play along. Fitguy are you going to continue to post these here as they come up?

if keel doesn't mind, i can...can be found easily by adding "jeffthehat" (with the "@" in front, of course) at that site with the blue-bird logo...

keel and confucius both say "ignore first two ancient-chinese-secret plays that fail...then chase the next two to win exactly one fortune cookie"
this is truly a GSE (Good Strategy Eh?!)

**keel44** · 07-23-14, 11:59 PM

Please don't post his system plays here. I have a little strategy of my own I will be posting.

**keel44** · 07-24-14, 12:29 AM

July 23

Parlay 1-A: Phillies with Over 7.5 (0.31 to win 1.05) units
Parlay 2-A: D-backs with Over 8 (0.31 to win .98)
Parlay 3-A: Dodgers with Over 7.5 (0.31 to win .98)
Parlay 4-A: Marlins with Over 7 (0.31 to win 1.15)

These all lost. The amounts will be added to my profit target. My parlays going forward will now start at 0.33 units.

**fitguy67** · 07-24-14, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by keel44

Please don't post his system plays here. I have a little strategy of my own I will be posting.

no problem at all...i'm fully onboard with the type of angles ur working now...

patience/persistence=the key ingredient

**keel44** · 07-24-14, 11:41 AM

July 24

Parlay 5-A: Rangers with Over 8.5 (0.33 to win 1.33)
Parlay 6-A: Mets with Over 7.5 (0.33 to win 1.29)
Parlay 7-A: Orioles with Over 6.5 (0.33 to win 1.06)
Parlay 8-A: Marlins with Over 7.5 (0.33 to win 1.21)

**keel44** · 07-25-14, 12:07 AM

July 24

Parlay 5-A: Rangers with Over 8.5 (0.33 to win 1.33)
Parlay 6-A: Mets with Over 7.5 (0.33 to win 1.29)
Parlay 7-A: Orioles with Over 6.5 (0.33 to win 1.06)
Parlay 8-A: Marlins with Over 7.5 (0.33 to win 1.21)

My new risk amount will now be .36 unit

**keel44** · 07-25-14, 04:17 PM

July 25

Parlay 9-A: Blue Jays with Over 8 (0.36 to win 1.12)
Parlay 10-A: Mets with Over 7.5 (0.36 to win 1.21)
Parlay 11-A: Padres with Over 6.5 (0.36 to win 1.27)
Parlay 12-A: Marlins with Over 8.5 (0.36 to win 1.17)

**keel44** · 07-25-14, 09:48 PM

July 25

Parlay 9-A: Blue Jays with Over 8 (0.36 to win 1.12)
Parlay 10-A: Mets with Over 7.5 (0.36 to win 1.21)
Parlay 11-A: Padres with Over 6.5 (0.36 to win 1.27)
Parlay 12-A: Marlins with Over 8.5 (0.36 to win 1.17)

Parlay 11 will now be a 1.27 unit risk. Every one else will be a 0.38 risk.

**keel44** · 07-26-14, 10:35 AM

July 26

Parlay 13-A: Blue Jays with Over 9 (0.38 to win 1.25)
Parlay 14-A: Padres with Over 6.5 (0.38 to win 1.50)
Parlay 11-B: Rays with Over 7.5 (1.27 to win 3.94)

**fitguy67** · 07-26-14, 01:47 PM

with u every parlay of the way...gl2us

**keel44** · 07-26-14, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

with u every parlay of the way...gl2us

Really? Have you been following? How about the risk amounts? They press into each other, recouping the risk amount after the first win. I should hit 20% of these. Right now, just 2 of 15.

**keel44** · 07-26-14, 10:26 PM

July 26

Parlay 13-A: Blue Jays with Over 9 (0.38 to win 1.25)
Parlay 14-A: Padres with Over 6.5 (0.38 to win 1.50)
Parlay 11-B: Rays with Over 7.5 (1.27 to win 3.94)

0.37 risk amount......going forward

**fitguy67** · 07-27-14, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by keel44

Really? Have you been following? How about the risk amounts? They press into each other, recouping the risk amount after the first win. I should hit 20% of these. Right now, just 2 of 15.

i'm treating this like a hi-variance but +eV slot machine...have to keep pulling the lever till the inevitable "pop" compensates us for the patience exhibited...

hits on parlays are very non-linear...almost nothing for 4 days, say 2-16...then might almost sweep the board on the fifth day bringing us to the expected 4/5 out of 20...

what you really are waiting for tho' is to hit on a particular linear sequence of 3-straight...may be quite frustrating getting to the C-parlay a few times before hitting it...on the other hand just might hit a few of them in close succession...

kind of like waiting for a bus that's supposed to come every 20 minutes...nothing for an hour...then three in the next few minutes...

systems like this are, if nothing else. good for "cultivating" patience while waiting for that inevitable nice hit...

thing i like about the way you've configured this is that we get many many pulls on the lever and the small hits along the way (even if not followed up to ABC-completion) are like small 1x, 2x slot-machine hits that help us finance even more pulls...increasing the chance of hitting the one that makes it all worthwhile before running out of coins

gradual escalation (0.31, to 0.37 over a few rounds) quite tolerable...

i'm just glad 365 allows parlays like this so i can follow along with the fun of this well-conceived little "win 15 before losing 35" experiment you've designed...

knowing that these parlays should hit at a 20%+ rate...the crappiness of the start not disheartening at all

**keel44** · 07-27-14, 10:12 AM

Good observation FitGuy67. Keep in mind that if we win the 1st of my 3 parlays. We only risk the "won" amount going forward. So, we are chasing on 1st attempt losses only. If my 3 parlays win in a row, at the very least you will profit 48 times the initial risk amount. I am chasing that scenario.

You may already know this, but it bears repeating for all to understand.

**keel44** · 07-27-14, 10:26 AM

July 27

Parlay 15-A: Cubs with Over 7.5 (0.37 to win 1.51)
Parlay 16-A: Padres with Over 7.5 (0.37 to win 1.46)
Parlay 17-A: Blue Jays with Over 9 (0.37 to win 1.26)
Parlay 13-B: Mets with Over 8.5 (1.25 to win 3.95)

**keel44** · 07-27-14, 10:26 PM

July 27

Parlay 15-A: Cubs with Over 7.5 (0.37 to win 1.51)
Parlay 16-A: Padres with Over 7.5 (0.37 to win 1.46)
Parlay 17-A: Blue Jays with Over 9 (0.37 to win 1.26) PUSH .7955 risk on a straight bet next
Parlay 13-B: Mets with Over 8.5 (1.25 to win 3.95)

0.40 unit risk amount going forward

30.45 units left to do this.....

**keel44** · 07-28-14, 10:53 AM

July 28

Parlay 17-A: Blue Jays with Braves -1.5 (0.795 to win 1.51) -- Straight bet on Braves -1.5
Parlay 18-A: Blue Jays with Over 9 (0.40 to win 1.28)
Parlay 19-A: D-backs with Over 7.5 (0.40 to win 1.33)
Parlay 20-A: Brewers with Over 7 (0.40 to win 1.25)
Parlay 21-A: Pirates with Over 6.5 (0.40 to win 1.33)
Parlay 22-A: Rockies with Over 7.5 (0.40 to win 1.30)

**keel44** · 07-29-14, 11:10 AM

July 28

Parlay 17-A: Blue Jays with Braves -1.5 (0.795 to win 1.51) -- Straight bet on Braves -1.5
Parlay 18-A: Blue Jays with Over 9 (0.40 to win 1.28)
Parlay 19-A: D-backs with Over 7.5 (0.40 to win 1.33)
Parlay 20-A: Brewers with Over 7 (0.40 to win 1.25)
Parlay 21-A: Pirates with Over 6.5 (0.40 to win 1.33)
Parlay 22-A: Rockies with Over 7.5 (0.40 to win 1.30)

Any new parlay amount going forward will be 0.43 units.

**keel44** · 07-29-14, 11:33 AM

July 29

Parlay 17-B: Phillies -1.5 with Blue Jays (1.51 to win 5.21)
Parlay 18-B: Marlins with Blue Jays Under 9 (1.28 to win 4.34)
Parlay 23-A: Rangers with Over 9 (0.43 to win 1.66)
Parlay 24-A: White Sox with Under 8 (0.43 to win 1.71)

**fitguy67** · 07-29-14, 04:20 PM

gl2us2nite...we deserve it...last night's loss on the pit/sfo over was especially annoying (5-0 after 2 innings...zilcho after that)...so easily we could have three, instead of two, B-legs in play right now...such is the non-linear "drought or downpour" nature of gambling...what makes it fun sometimes is exactly what makes it frustrating at others

**fitguy67** · 07-29-14, 09:53 PM

nice bit of positive variiance for the good guys...hit the two big'uns & lost the two littl'uns (...hmmm, one of them might even work out)

**keel44** · 07-29-14, 10:29 PM

It is nice to have a follower for once. I am happy with the results so far. I need to get a 3rd win.

**keel44** · 07-29-14, 10:40 PM

July 29

Parlay 17-B: Phillies -1.5 with Blue Jays (1.51 to win 5.21)
Parlay 18-B: Marlins with Blue Jays Under 9 (1.28 to win 4.34)
Parlay 23-A: Rangers with Over 9 (0.43 to win 1.66)
Parlay 24-A: White Sox with Under 8 (0.43 to win 1.71)

If I lose my 2 "C" bets, I would be down 6.79 units since the start of my parlay project. This is not bad given how many chances I have had and will continue to have.

**keel44** · 07-30-14, 10:37 AM

July 30

Parlay 18-C: Mets -1.5 with Marlins +1.5 (5.62 to win 18.55)
Parlay 25-A: Padres with Astros (0.44 to win 1.43)

**keel44** · 07-30-14, 03:02 PM

What a miracle win! I had my share of miracle losses as well.

**keel44** · 07-30-14, 03:17 PM

July 30

Parlay 18-C: Mets -1.5 with Marlins +1.5 (5.62 to win 18.55)
Parlay 25-A: Padres with Astros (0.44 to win 1.43)

After tonight, I am resetting the whole thing. I am currently up 8.95 units. 0.44 is pending.....
I will start it all over again. Stay tuned.....

**keel44** · 07-31-14, 12:37 AM

July 30

Parlay 18-C: Mets -1.5 with Marlins +1.5 (5.62 to win 18.55)
Parlay 25-A: Padres with Astros (0.44 to win 1.43)

I am up 10.38 units without crazy unit sizes. I really like my parlay press chase strategy. I will now go for another 10 unit profit and put a bow on this mlb season.

**keel44** · 07-31-14, 11:09 AM

Trying for at least a 10 unit profit

July 31

Parlay 1-A: Cubs Under 8 with Pirates -1.5 (0.20 to win 0.74)

**keel44** · 08-01-14, 09:31 AM

July 31

Parlay 1-A: Cubs Under 8 with Pirates -1.5 (0.20 to win 0.74)

0.21 going forward

**keel44** · 08-01-14, 10:55 AM

August 1

Parlay 02-A: Yankees with Phillies +1.5 (0.21 to win 0.66)
Parlay 03-A: Marlins with Pirates -1.5 (0.21 to win 0.76)
Parlay 04-A: Cubs with Brewers +1.5 (0.21 to win 0.66)
Parlay 05-A: Giants with Astros Over 8.5 (0.21 to win 0.65)

**fitguy67** · 08-01-14, 05:37 PM

keel, just to clarify...when u changed gears you had 35.21u of your original 50u bank...and were targeting the 14.79u you needed to get back to that

the parlay project has since netted 10.38u, bringing you to 45.59u...just a few units shy of square

you're now aiming at 10-ish units to bring your bank to 55u (10% more than what u started the thread with)...

_______________

i'm with you on this "final push into positive territory" project...and have pro-rated my unit-size to similarly leave me up !0%-ish overall on all of my MLB 2014 efforts...and equally glad to put this awkward season behind me